It’s real simple... Tudor is the new Rolex

[Polarbears]

Friends, waitlists, price increases, scarcity, etc.

Rolex is going upmarket. Exclusivity. Sell less units at higher prices. Same profit. Rolex=Patek Eventually.

Tudor is the brand that people will aspire to own. Rolex if you’re wealthy.

This is the strategy. It’s the reason you have a Tudor Pepsi and a Rolex Pepsi both with in house movements, 70 hour power reserves.

There is no way management would allow such in house scalping if this wasn’t to move both brands up market with Tudor replacing Rolex for the aspirational middle class.

It’s clever yet obvious and slightly cynical but it’s happening.

[Hogtown Fatty]

I agree.
Rolex is taking all the fun out of it for the true horological fans, making it impossible to attain any of their new watches even if you've got the money ready to go. Having the money ready to buy could not matter less-- there's millions of other shmucks with the same resources ($) ready to jump on the bandwagon--, but what does matter is knowing the secret handshake or the right people or buying up enough of the old crap at your AD that nobody else wants... maybe then they'll consider letting you in on one of the new watches. The new GMT II was announced just yesterday and already several AD's are saying list is closed at five years... I mean, COME ON!!! The AD's do as they please and tell you 'approximate' waitlist lengths not because they don't know when they'll be getting the watches (this is literally Swiss watchmaking... if they know one thing it's how to keep time and track), but because they're anticipating some dude with deeper pockets than yours will come along and buy his way into the opportunity to buy the Daytona or Sky-D or GMT or whatever other ss watch is in vogue that year. I just posted about this in another thread, but will repeat here... I know my own worth well enough and will not support this. I have enough integrity to not care so much about a watch that I resort to begging, paying over retail, etc. Lets be objective, folks... they're just watches... and I love them to death, but it's just ridiculous at this point. Rolex couldn't care less about us little guys.

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by Hogtown Fatty

I agree.
Rolex is taking all the fun out of it for the true horological fans, making it impossible to attain any of their new watches even if you've got the money ready to go. Having the money ready to buy could not matter less-- there's millions of other shmucks with the same resources ($) ready to jump on the bandwagon--, but what does matter is knowing the secret handshake or the right people or buying up enough of the old crap at your AD that nobody else wants... maybe then they'll consider letting you in on one of the new watches. The new GMT II was announced just yesterday and already several AD's are saying list is closed at five years... I mean, COME ON!!! The AD's do as they please and tell you 'approximate' waitlist lengths not because they don't know when they'll be getting the watches (this is literally Swiss watchmaking... if they know one thing it's how to keep time and track), but because they're anticipating some dude with deeper pockets than yours will come along and buy his way into the opportunity to buy the Daytona or Sky-D or GMT or whatever other ss watch is in vogue that year. I just posted about this in another thread, but will repeat here... I know my own worth well enough and will not support this. I have enough integrity to not care so much about a watch that I resort to begging, paying over retail, etc. Lets be objective, folks... they're just watches... and I love them to death, but it's just ridiculous at this point. Rolex couldn't care less about us little guys.

True.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by Hogtown Fatty

I agree.
Rolex is taking all the fun out of it for the true horological fans, making it impossible to attain any of their new watches even if you've got the money ready to go. Having the money ready to buy could not matter less-- there's millions of other shmucks with the same resources ($) ready to jump on the bandwagon--, but what does matter is knowing the secret handshake or the right people or buying up enough of the old crap at your AD that nobody else wants... maybe then they'll consider letting you in on one of the new watches. The new GMT II was announced just yesterday and already several AD's are saying list is closed at five years... I mean, COME ON!!! The AD's do as they please and tell you 'approximate' waitlist lengths not because they don't know when they'll be getting the watches (this is literally Swiss watchmaking... if they know one thing it's how to keep time and track), but because they're anticipating some dude with deeper pockets than yours will come along and buy his way into the opportunity to buy the Daytona or Sky-D or GMT or whatever other ss watch is in vogue that year. I just posted about this in another thread, but will repeat here... I know my own worth well enough and will not support this. I have enough integrity to not care so much about a watch that I resort to begging, paying over retail, etc. Lets be objective, folks... they're just watches... and I love them to death, but it's just ridiculous at this point. Rolex couldn't care less about us little guys.

This is true but you forgot the element called “why even sell to the public”. Grays exist because they are willing to buy quantity at retail and above. This is why Daytona’s are so scarce. AD’s are selling them to grays above retail, thus creating the $20,000 SS Daytona which then causes everyone to sign up for one with their AD hoping to pay full retail which is a bargain which only further clogs the distribution.

[HL65]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

This is true but you forgot the element called “why even sell to the public”. Grays exist because they are willing to buy quantity at retail and above. This is why Daytona’s are so scarce. AD’s are selling them to grays above retail, thus creating the $20,000 SS Daytona which then causes everyone to sign up for one with their AD which only further clogs the distribution.

They are not doing that in the US - absolute nonsense. I can’t speak outside of USA but it’s not happening here. Sure some AD’s make grey dealers buy other watches if they want Daytona’s and other sought after pieces but they aren’t risking their Rolex line to do that. There is enough pressure on them now from Rolex tomeven sell to grey dealers let alone above retail. Rolex is smart company and they have and will continue to clamp down. Part of what has been driving prices up if you have been paying attention.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by HL65

They are not doing that in the US - absolute nonsense. I can’t speak outside of USA but it’s not happening here. Sure some AD’s make grey dealers buy other watches if they want Daytona’s and other sought after pieces but they aren’t risking their Rolex line to do that. There is enough pressure on them now from Rolex tomeven sell to grey dealers let alone above retail. Rolex is smart company and they have and will continue to clamp down. Part of what has been driving prices up if you have been paying attention.

With respect I know an AD in (location deleted) who does this. I won’t get into specifics but it’s a known situation. Rolex wants to shift the full line. If your shifting the full line I don’t think they truly police the “how”. If you just move certain models I think they do sense some concern and monitor the AD. The trick is to sell all models.

[Hogtown Fatty]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

This is true but you forgot the element called “why even sell to the public”. Grays exist because they are willing to buy quantity at retail and above. This is why Daytona’s are so scarce. AD’s are selling them to grays above retail, thus creating the $20,000 SS Daytona which then causes everyone to sign up for one with their AD hoping to pay full retail which is a bargain which only further clogs the distribution.

so, simply put, it comes down to the greed of the AD's... that's what i suspected. they will either sell for retail to the lucky few who've earned (read: bought) the opportunity or to greys for above retail. i really wish there were some way for rolex to monitor this... wishful thinking, i know, will never happen...

[Aventura]

Originally Posted by Hogtown Fatty

I agree.
Rolex is taking all the fun out of it for the true horological fans, making it impossible to attain any of their new watches even if you've got the money ready to go. Having the money ready to buy could not matter less-- there's millions of other shmucks with the same resources ($) ready to jump on the bandwagon--, but what does matter is knowing the secret handshake or the right people or buying up enough of the old crap at your AD that nobody else wants... maybe then they'll consider letting you in on one of the new watches. The new GMT II was announced just yesterday and already several AD's are saying list is closed at five years... I mean, COME ON!!! The AD's do as they please and tell you 'approximate' waitlist lengths not because they don't know when they'll be getting the watches (this is literally Swiss watchmaking... if they know one thing it's how to keep time and track), but because they're anticipating some dude with deeper pockets than yours will come along and buy his way into the opportunity to buy the Daytona or Sky-D or GMT or whatever other ss watch is in vogue that year. I just posted about this in another thread, but will repeat here... I know my own worth well enough and will not support this. I have enough integrity to not care so much about a watch that I resort to begging, paying over retail, etc. Lets be objective, folks... they're just watches... and I love them to death, but it's just ridiculous at this point. Rolex couldn't care less about us little guys.

This comment is great. The true truth. In no way am I thinking that it is the fault of Rolex because they can do what they want. If they want to stop making a model or reduce their production, it's up to them.
The shameful are some comments that say that paying premium is nothing wrong. They are just watches as the comment says and there is also the pride of each person. Now if there are many people who like to be ripped off there. I do not think that people are buying Tudor because most people do not buy the watch but the five letters that Rolex says.
I love the Rolex, I just sold a Sub.116610 that I had bought in 2013 and not only did not pay a penny more than what it was worth but I got it in another country a lot cheaper than I would have to pay it in the city where I live. I clarify that in this country the official dealers do not discount, the price I got was for other reasons. But I bought it thinking that the day I sold it at least I would get the same price I paid and that's how it was. But it is normal that who likes to pay the list price. Not a penny more.
I admit that I thought the shortage was temporary but now I see that it seems that it will last a lifetime. I also think that the shortage was to try to sell the hundreds of old models that have the AD. But it is my personal opinion. Maybe I'm wrong.

[The Joker]

What's the new Tudor then?

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by The Joker

What's the new Tudor then?

They don’t need one. They pump out enough Tudors that the used market is the affordable Tudor. That’s why I don’t understand purchasing Tudor at retail. You will lose $1000 or more. The only Tudor to retain or gain value has been the Black Bay ETA Rose Black Bezel but those had only a few thousand made so it’s not the typical Tudor.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

They don’t need one. They pump out enough Tudors that the used market is the affordable Tudor. That’s why I don’t understand purchasing Tudor at retail. You will lose $1000 or more. The only Tudor to retain or gain value has been the Black Bay ETA Rose Black Bezel but those had only a few thousand made so it’s not the typical Tudor.

im going to say this right now. the tudor pelagos blue will double the day they discontinue it.

[reeko]

Originally Posted by Etschell

im going to say this right now. the tudor pelagos blue will double the day they discontinue it.

Why do you think this? I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just wondering why you think this could be the case.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by reeko

Why do you think this? I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just wondering why you think this could be the case.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

because blue snowflake divers are sought after.

[ras47]

Originally Posted by The Joker

What's the new Tudor then?

Seiko.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by The Joker

What's the new Tudor then?

Christopher Ward? It is a watch company started in the UK but now makes its in-house movement in Switzerland.

Sounds like that former British company, Wilsdorf and Davis.

[Dove37]

Originally Posted by The Joker

What's the new Tudor then?

Omega

[jackcarls0n]

Originally Posted by The Joker

What's the new Tudor then?

Casio Gshock ;)

[bp1000]

I’ve been saying this for sometime but this week I’m not so sure.

Ok the Pepsi gmt from rolex is priced strong but the Tudor gmt (a cracking watch) is unbelievably cheap; relatively speaking.

I can only assume they want tudor to be a premium lifestyle brand. Especially when you look at the brand ambassadors.

That Tudor infsct all B.B. are great value.

I suspect it will take some time for the prices to creep up and to slot in near where rolex are now.

Once that happens they will alienate the lifestyle market; the ones who previously bought breitling and tag. Interested to see this play out.

Big fan

[AK797]

No this is a demand bubble, when demand falls off then we will know what Rolex's strategy is regarding supply and price. At the moment their strategy has been to watch and do nothing, other than try and stop flippers, until they see some sustained market changes.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by AK797

No this is a demand bubble, when demand falls off then we will know what Rolex's strategy is regarding supply and price. At the moment their strategy has been to watch and do nothing, other than try and stop flippers, until they see some sustained market changes.

Following your thought process explain the dual Pepsi’s. It’s not a coincidence.
My AD yesterday said if I want a Rolex Pepsi I’ll wait at least 2 years.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

Following your thought process explain the dual Pepsi’s. It’s not a coincidence.
My AD yesterday said if I want a Rolex Pepsi I’ll wait at least 2 years.

The wait list is the AD's interpretation of how many he expects to get and how many he expects to be on a waiting list. 2 years is a pretty standard reply doing the basic maths and has far more to do with high demand than restricted supply, it will be supplied like last year's Basel models. As I said this is demand led not supply led, Rolex did not see the bumper 2017 coming any more than anyone else did due to QE, stock and cryptomania etc, and more quick millionaires were made than probably ever before and the unadulterated proliferation of social media has enticed so many people to spend on visual trinkets like a Rolex.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by AK797

The wait list is the AD's interpretation of how many he expects to get and how many he expects to be on a waiting list. 2 years is a pretty standard reply doing the basic maths and has far more to do with high demand than restricted supply, it will be supplied like last year's Basel.

I understand. But how can you aspire to purchase something that doesn’t exist? How do they manage to make enough Tudors to more than meet demand but fail at doing so with Rolex?

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

I understand. But how can you aspire to purchase something that doesn’t exist? How do they manage to make enough Tudors to more than meet demand but fail at doing so with Rolex?

Demand surged for SS Rolexes and it stayed constant for Tudors. Simple really.

[codecow]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

I understand. But how can you aspire to purchase something that doesn’t exist? How do they manage to make enough Tudors to more than meet demand but fail at doing so with Rolex?

Probably because not that many people want a Tudor.

[jstan9]

Originally Posted by AK797

No this is a demand bubble, when demand falls off then we will know what Rolex's strategy is regarding supply and price. At the moment their strategy has been to watch and do nothing, other than try and stop flippers, until they see some sustained market changes.

I agree. Based on last week’s WSJ article on the Swiss watch industry, I think Rolex planned for a depressed market this year and was shocked that demand blew the doors off. It doesn’t fix anything and I’m in agreement with almost every comment on this thread, but at least it offers some explanation.

I do think a luxury goods business that can’t respond to changes in demand is weird but at the same time, as many have said, they’re also in the marketing and mystique business and it strikes me that they’re doing a very good job on that front.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by AK797

No this is a demand bubble, when demand falls off then we will know what Rolex's strategy is regarding supply and price. At the moment their strategy has been to watch and do nothing, other than try and stop flippers, until they see some sustained market changes.

I definitely agree, although...lately my curiosity has heightened with the thought...WHAT is the end game strategy here....also what are the 'milestones' to gauge overarching direction? I would submit at some point Rolex has to do something...to 'right the ship' so to say....I know there are MULTIPLE schools of thought on this and SO MANY threads, but who knows...I think the easiest most direct way would be more governances on ADs...you will never stop people from selling or trading watches they buy...that is an exercise in futility - you can do whatever you wish with your property...but you might be able to govern sales practices...maybe....who knows...a price increase wont fix anything -- just continue the secondary inflation...the only strategy I could think of that could shift the market would be to flood it with inventory...and I am not sure they are ready for that....

I hate it for people just getting into this hobby as I know it is frustrating...but you just have to hang in there...and/or look at some of the other great manufacturers out there...as far as the Tudor 'thing' goes...I think that strategically this helps Rolex highlight the brand for sure and try to make it more of a 'player' in the watch world overall...is it the 'new' Rolex...nah...

I guess we'll see....from a business perspective this is quite interesting to watch...no pun intended...

[thomaswentworth]

Not with their winding crown and honestly putting the word rotor on the dial. What is the purpose of that? Rolex is King. Tudor is the King's little brother trying to do things a little differently and at a lower price point to see if the market place can be broadened. New Tudors are starter Rolexes that are done in a way that will never allow them to be confused with a Rolex.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by thomaswentworth

Not with their winding crown and honestly putting the word rotor on the dial. What is the purpose of that? Rolex is King. Tudor is the King's little brother trying to do things a little differently and at a lower price point to see if the market place can be broadened. New Tudors are starter Rolexes that are done in a way that will never allow them to be confused with a Rolex.

You’ve missed the point.

[thomaswentworth]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

You’ve missed the point.

I just don't agree... I don't think Rolex wants to destroy the most respected brand in the world so they can convert into becoming the little brother to Tudor. Even the name is reminiscent of someone who needs a tutor... a younger person.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by thomaswentworth

I just don't agree... I don't think Rolex wants to destroy the most respected brand in the world so they can convert into becoming the little brother to Tudor. Even the name is reminiscent of someone who needs a tutor... a younger person.

Your response was tied to Aesthetics and the original history of Tudor. This is a new Tudor. This is not a baby brother reusing left over parts. Tudor is the aspirational brand to be and Rolex is for the wealthy. The average person can no longer aspire to own a Rolex. It’s almost impossible and each year getting further out of reach.