My plan for Rolex unavailability

[DantonIzzo]

Staching 20k away in muni bond and wait for the recession to hit. When folks stop buying because recession that’s when I’ll strike!

[Frank51]

Good plan, demand will definitely fall!

[Valhala]

Nice..

[HK Islandboy]

There are much worse plans than that - makes sense

[jmrxtr]

recession is around the corner

[jrs146]

I applaud you for thinking this through. It’s a half descent plan. I don’t have the patience for that unfortunately. Can’t wear a bond on your wrist!


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[Valhala]

Good plan

[Steerpike999]

Buy Low / Sell High.
Good one

[faimag]

Good plan. Right now you can get a DaytonaC for 20K. If by the time recession hits the price goes up to 25K (given it's been going up 1K per month, that's not so unreasonable), then you will be able to get it at a big discount for around 22K!

[MinMay]

Yep yep..and they will desperately sell their watch at a loss and eventually learn their lesson that it's never easy money in this hobby :) . But, I suggest put that money to work in the stock market.

[Andad]

I remember when the Au/US dollar was one for one.

Bought a few watches then.

Not sure if we will be back to that point for a while?

[Xerxes77]

It’s a smart move!

[tyler1980]

just short the market if you are convinced of a downturn. They payout is bigger.

Not arguing with your logic though.

[AEC]

Planning is to be applauded. Some may think of this as placing a bet, and I think this is a good bet :-)

[nmb]

That will work,all steel sports models were obtained with relative ease in the last recession,even the Daytona got down to a 3 month wait at the right AD

[zion_rasta]

My plan? Stashed $500k in cash savings(not 401k; that’s a different account) and wait for the next market crash. Coming soon thanks to millennials and zennials that would never be able to pay their student loans.

Meanwhile, contemplating a readily available Panerai 1312.

Rolex is not that much more to make me work for them. People lining up to spend $13k on a completely unnecessary lux item, and Rolex would be like, let me put you on a waiting list...

All those steel models aren’t worth the mark up regardless of whether you have the money or not. Just in principle.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by zion_rasta

My plan? Stashed $500k in cash savings(not 401k; that’s a different account) and wait for the next market crash. Coming soon thanks to stupid millennials and zennials that would never be able to pay their student loans.

Meanwhile, contemplating a readily available Panerai 1312.

Rolex is not that much more to make me work for them. People lining up to spend $13k on a completely unnecessary lux item, and Rolex would be like, let me put you on a waiting list...

All those steel models aren’t worth the mark up regardless of whether you have the money or not. Just in principle.

baby boomers have created the mess so if the millennials make it crash its only because it was already beyond saving.

Millenials save at a higher rate than the boomers statictically and are more responsible with money.

[zion_rasta]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

baby boomers have created the mess so if the millennials make it crash its only because it was already beyond saving.

Millenials save at a higher rate than the boomers statictically and are more responsible with money.

Yeah, boomers are not retiring since they did not save.

It is sad that Gen Xers will be retiring while boomers are still working.

Many kids out there with $100k debt for that sociology degree. Not that the degree is a bad, it is just not worth $100k.

[Jim Smyth]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

baby boomers have created the mess so if the millennials make it crash its only because it was already beyond saving.

Millenials save at a higher rate than the boomers statictically and are more responsible with money.

Right....................

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Jim Smyth

Right....................

plenty of evidence... believe what you want to believe though.

[Vetracer]

From my experience of the last three big recessions, luxury goods that are desirable, don't get discounted in a recession. Manufacturers just cut back production and buy-back and mothball existing stock until good times return.

Based on my experience of previous recessions, I was never able to get a discount on:

- The most desirable cars (we're not talking super-cars or hyper-cars here, just your top end German sports cars). The most I'd receive were discounted options in the case of a car purchase.

- The most desirable watches. The most I'd receive were extra leather watch rolls or discounts on PM models.

Property prices seem to be where the biggest discounts can be had although, prices just before a recession are massively inflated anyway.


Next recession, the Grey Market prices will reduce somewhat as they struggle to stay alive but you'll still pay at least list price for the most desirable watches in my opinion.

[lucevan le stelle]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

From my experience of the last three big recessions, luxury goods that are desirable, don't get discounted in a recession. Manufacturers just cut back production and buy-back and mothball existing stock until good times return.

Based on my experience of previous recessions, I was never able to get a discount on:

- The most desirable cars (we're not talking super-cars or hyper-cars here, just your top end German sports cars). The most I'd receive were discounted options in the case of a car purchase.

- The most desirable watches. The most I'd receive were extra leather watch rolls or discounts on PM models.

Property prices seem to be where the biggest discounts can be had although, prices just before a recession are massively inflated anyway.


Next recession, the Grey Market prices will reduce somewhat as they struggle to stay alive but you'll still pay at least list price for the most desirable watches in my opinion.

Great post and very on point. Most do not make out as well as they think they will with planning to profit on a recession. The ones who might are the ones that write the books on how to do it, which the other prospective profiteers purchase.

[BillA]

Interesting strategy.
If interest rates continue to climb, bond prices go down.

[Bt122]

What recession? And where... which country?

[SackLVG]

I don’t know if that’s a great idea, The current rolex demand is cyclical and it’s just feeding off the hype of recent models. The economy was good in 2016 and you can get Rolex’s for 15-20% on ss models. Until mid summer of 2017, you could find almost any ss in stock (ex. Daytona) and greys were selling below Msrp.

It’s your money, but there are better things to invest than rolexes future demands.

[beshannon]

Waiting is good, however rates are rising, bonds are not the place to be.

Good luck!

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by BillA

Interesting strategy.
If interest rates continue to climb, bond prices go down.

Originally Posted by beshannon

Waiting is good, however rates are rising, bonds are not the place to be.

Good luck!

This is a good point. Remember, just because it might be a highly rated bond doesn’t mean you will get par value if you don’t hold until maturity. You may want to consider a very short duration bond. However for the extra risk perhaps just throwing it in a high yield savings account would be the safest move. Some of those HY accounts are paying around 1.65% and it’s fdic insured


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[red1108nyc]

Money market funds in U.S. is 1.65 yield now and probably get to 2.25% ball park by year end. Positive real rate without interest rate risk sounds fantastic to me after decade of Zero interest rate policy.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Waiting is good, however rates are rising, bonds are not the place to be.

Good luck!

Especially munis given the sad state of financial affairs of many, many municipalities.

[perryj]

Originally Posted by DantonIzzo

Staching 20k away in muni bond and wait for the recession to hit. When folks stop buying because recession that’s when I’ll strike!

Might wanna track last 30years the price of a typical model try the Sub for example, graph the price, good luck with that plan! Haha although I think a better plan would be buy a couple or one really nice vintage piece now!!

I wish I had of bought all the GMT or Daytona’s I could have got my hands on 30 years ago.