Long term forecast for the Nautilus

[guffyboy92]

Hey Gents,

So I think it goes without being said that the Nautilus, in particular the 5711, has become the king of the watch world with the only exception being vintage Daytonas. The price rise has been meteoric to say the least, and despite the potential for even higher prices, I caved and unloaded mine last week. I don't regret it, I bought the watch at below retail back in 2012 and have enjoyed it thoroughly. I would have been happy to get the amount I paid back, but at an almost 100% increase in value compared to what I got it for, I absolutely could not resist the temptation of better watches being within my grasp

With that being said, what do people foresee the long term forecast of the Nautilus being? I'm not talking about the next couple of years because I personally see it as a bubble in the short/medium term. I'm talking years, possibly decades in in advanced. Personally, I have a feeling that in the coming years, Patek will discontinue the 5711 and come out with a new model that will be larger, in the same vain as the new Aquanaut, maybe 42mm. Why? Because as we've established, the Nautilus has become the Patek for the "mainstream" consumer and not just the watch enthusiast. It's the Patek everyone who doesn't spend hours trolling through forums wants. Rappers, athletes, celebrities, newly minted millionaires; most of these individuals want the Nautilus for it's recognizability as THE Patek, not because of a prior fascination for it's heritage, it's iconic look, and a love for watches in general.

A complaint I've heard from many non-WIS consumers of the Nautilus is that it is too small and dainty, especially the 5711. So, with Patek being a business and obviously recognizing that the Nautilus is their new icon and ticket into the mainstream, I'm almost certain they will create a new, larger more robust Nautilus more catered to the consumers of luxury flashy sports watches ala Royal Oak. They may even make them in several different dial variations and strap options; who knows.

Naturally, trends are dynamic and ever changing, and perhaps the Nautilus's popularity may not last forever. However, because of the discontinuation of the 5711, I think that in 20 or so years, it will be the next Daytona without question. I will not be surprised to see the 5711 in decades to come going for 200, 300, maybe in 500 thousand USD at auction. Future collectors with deep pockets who want the iconic Genta designed, original proportioned Nautilus will gladly pay top dollar for mint 5711's in the same way that they pay top dollar for mint Paul Newmans.

But I could be wrong

Anyway here's the last picture I took of my 5711 before unloading it. Gone but not forgotten! Glad to have owned it and have experienced many of life's highs and lows with this on my wrist. Was sad to see it go, but looking forward to something new in the future

[dmash]

$500k? Ok

No modern, mainstream, non-limited edition timepiece is going to go for 20x it’s original MSRP. Those Daytonas were from a different era, things are different now.

[guffyboy92]

Originally Posted by dmash

$500k? Ok

No modern, mainstream, non-limited edition timepiece is going to go for 20x it’s original MSRP. Those Daytonas were from a different era, things are different now.

I don't mean any time in the near future, I'm talking maybe 30 or even 40 years from now. Perhaps my estimate is a bit high but if the 5711 gets discontinued in favour of a new "evolved" model, then I believe that in the far future they will become wildly collectable as they are already hard to come by now and they would be the last model true to the original design. Again, this is just my speculation and having a bit of fun...

[dmash]

I’m saying that because people think history will repeat itself on certain things. Those Paul Newman’s fetch that because we didn’t have social media, people weren’t aware of trends on a worldly basis, social media was non-existent, you had to physically walk in somewhere to obtain that. Now....you want a 5711? There’s hundreds of different places within 5 minutes you could buy one (albeit at a premium). That makes it impossible for the 5711 to ever reach the collectability of something like Newman Daytona.
......and that’s just one factor. 30 years from now? Who knows if mechanical timepieces are even a thing. Nobody can predict that far ahead.


I think people are taking the 5711 ‘discontinuation’ a little too serious. Sure, perhaps in the future, but definitely not any time soon IMO. Just because TS mentioned it doesn’t mean it’s around the corner. They may release another larger watch like you speak of, sure, but to have it replace the 5711? Don’t see it. Patek is much more traditional than other companies, and although not by any means the most historic piece in their lineup, it still stands in its own right.

I see the Aquanaut lineup continuously growing. The orange hand piece from this year backs that logic up. They can have fun with that, perhaps release ‘trendier’ pieces and purists won’t care.

[guffyboy92]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’m saying that because people think history will repeat itself on certain things. Those Paul Newman’s fetch that because we didn’t have social media, people weren’t aware of trends on a worldly basis, social media was non-existent, you had to physically walk in somewhere to obtain that. Now....you want a 5711? There’s hundreds of different places within 5 minutes you could buy one (albeit at a premium). That makes it impossible for the 5711 to ever reach the collectability of something like Newman Daytona.
......and that’s just one factor. 30 years from now? Who knows if mechanical timepieces are even a thing. Nobody can predict that far ahead.


I think people are taking the 5711 ‘discontinuation’ a little too serious. Sure, perhaps in the future, but definitely not any time soon IMO. Just because TS mentioned it doesn’t mean it’s around the corner. They may release another larger watch like you speak of, sure, but to have it replace the 5711? Don’t see it. Patek is much more traditional than other companies, and although not by any means the most historic piece in their lineup, it still stands in its own right.

I see the Aquanaut lineup continuously growing. The orange hand piece from this year backs that logic up. They can have fun with that, perhaps release ‘trendier’ pieces and purists won’t care.

Sound logic, admittedly I did not consider the social media aspect nor the interconnected nature of the world, was looking at it purely based off of historical trends and the current market conditions (which I know change over time). My speculation was meant to be a wild one, if and only if it was discontinued in the future in favour of something new. That said, I still do believe that it will reach a high level of collectibility in future. Perhaps not my original over-zealous estimate... but certainly commanding an even heftier premium than it already has. But again just to reiterate, this is just speculation and in good fun haha.

Also, I'm inclined to agree with your observations on the Aquanaut. Cheers!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by guffyboy92

Sound logic, admittedly I did not consider the social media aspect nor the interconnected nature of the world, was looking at it purely based off of historical trends and the current market conditions (which I know change over time). My speculation was meant to be a wild one, if and only if it was discontinued in the future in favour of something new. That said, I still do believe that it will reach a high level of collectibility in future. Perhaps not my original over-zealous estimate... but certainly commanding an even heftier premium than it already has. But again just to reiterate, this is just speculation and in good fun haha.

Also, I'm inclined to agree with your observations on the Aquanaut. Cheers!

All in good convo


FWIW, I think you’re intelligent for cashing in on he 5711. Exactly as you stated, you’re now able to obtain a better piece at a low entry point. I think it’s ridiculous to drop that kind of cash on a 5711. But for somebody like yourself....you paid around $25k for a $50k piece now. That’s an entirely different ballpark of watches

I don’t see somebody like yourself selfish, as you’re not pocketing cash profit, you’re simply wanting to upgrade at a massive discount. Nothing wrong with that.

[ryanh234]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’m saying that because people think history will repeat itself on certain things. Those Paul Newman’s fetch that because we didn’t have social media, people weren’t aware of trends on a worldly basis, social media was non-existent, you had to physically walk in somewhere to obtain that. Now....you want a 5711? There’s hundreds of different places within 5 minutes you could buy one (albeit at a premium). That makes it impossible for the 5711 to ever reach the collectability of something like Newman Daytona.
......and that’s just one factor. 30 years from now? Who knows if mechanical timepieces are even a thing. Nobody can predict that far ahead.

Agree with this. The nautilus 5711 is too ubiquitous to become collectible the way a Paul Newman Daytona is. For future classics one needs to think a bit more outside the box. For example - the black dial 5960 has more chance of becoming something valuable in the future. It was discontinued after just 1 year so production numbers are much more limited than the 5711a. It was also pretty controversial when it launched provoking more criticism than praise - it’s always these type of watches which go on to be sought after years later when tastes change. To be fair the nautilus, like the Royal Oak it is based on, was not an instant hit - it took time to be appreciated and later prized as a sought after piece. But the 5960a 010 has the limited production numbers which the 5711a doesn’t which will count against the 5711a.

[brockburst]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’m saying that because people think history will repeat itself on certain things. Those Paul Newman’s fetch that because we didn’t have social media, people weren’t aware of trends on a worldly basis, social media was non-existent, you had to physically walk in somewhere to obtain that. Now....you want a 5711? There’s hundreds of different places within 5 minutes you could buy one (albeit at a premium). That makes it impossible for the 5711 to ever reach the collectability of something like Newman Daytona.
......and that’s just one factor. 30 years from now? Who knows if mechanical timepieces are even a thing. Nobody can predict that far ahead.


I think people are taking the 5711 ‘discontinuation’ a little too serious. Sure, perhaps in the future, but definitely not any time soon IMO. Just because TS mentioned it doesn’t mean it’s around the corner. They may release another larger watch like you speak of, sure, but to have it replace the 5711? Don’t see it. Patek is much more traditional than other companies, and although not by any means the most historic piece in their lineup, it still stands in its own right.

I see the Aquanaut lineup continuously growing. The orange hand piece from this year backs that logic up. They can have fun with that, perhaps release ‘trendier’ pieces and purists won’t care.

Actually, Paul Newman's and Big Red Daytona's were the bain of the Rolex lineup forever. They were a complete and total flop for a long time. Additionally, supply is significantly less compared to the Nautilus.

[RussW]

Is that the thin line version - same as in the thread about a 5711 going for $60k?

[tyler1980]

playing the forecasting game is a catch 22. Expecting something to be a 500k watch only encourages people to keep them in the safe and thus insuring it will never be a 500k watch since there will be so many mint condition examples preserved because of this expectation.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by RussW

Is that the thin line version - same as in the thread about a 5711 going for $60k?

I hope so and not one of numerous fakes that for some reason they decided to base their ones on.

[kultschar]

So what are your plans now its sold and what are you left with?

[guffyboy92]

I was considering something more dressy, ideally with a complication. A 5070g/r if I could locate the right one... Otherwise was looking at a 5170 or a 5960a black face. Or maybe something from Lange... We'll see

[RHIII]

Who knows what the future holds...I have to agree with you — the watch world is definitely in a ‘bubble’ right now.

My .02 is that the bubble will eventually burst and things will once again normalize...similar to what they’ve done in the past. Ups and downs, just like the market. How long will it take? That’s the question. I think it’s has a lot to do with the markets, as well as other socio-economic factors - and while those are at such a heightened state...so will the luxury markets.

For example - I can remember the late 90s, early 2000s when the Daytona’s (modern) were nearly impossible to find...then I can remember 2007-2009 they started popping up here and there....and I remember walking in to my AD one afternoon in 2011 and they had 2 in stock....what happened in the watch world? I have no idea — but I do know that during that time period when they started ‘showing up’ there were some significant market fluctuations happening...back to the ‘cycle’ and ups and downs.

Just some thoughts and purely my opinion.

Congrats on selling and taking advantage of a good market! You’ll definitely miss it — I know how that goes - with just the few watches I’ve let go over the years...just have no regrets!!!! ...and the 5960 is a GREAT choice at a replacement and a GREAT complication!!! You most definitely won’t be disappointed.

Take your time on the next acquisition...look at many options - even other manufacturers and enjoy the ‘hunt’...that’s the best part!!!!

Cheers!




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[kultschar]

Originally Posted by RHIII

For example - I can remember the late 90s, early 2000s when the Daytona’s (modern) were nearly impossible to find...then I can remember 2007-2009 they started popping up here and there....and I remember walking in to my AD one afternoon in 2011 and they had 2 in stock....what happened in the watch world? I have no idea — but I do know that during that time period when they started ‘showing up’ there were some significant market fluctuations happening...back to the ‘cycle’ and ups and downs.

Just some thoughts and purely my opinion.

Agree regarding Daytona, however have we ever been in a situation where multiple watch models have been so crazy hard to get from an AD? Not just Aqua's, Nautilus & Daytonas but GMT's, Subs, SeaDwellers etc.

It really is bizarre at the moment. A few years ago I would never imagine UK AD windows being "Subless". Even the black DSSD doesn't hang about at the moment - madness!!!

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by kultschar

Agree regarding Daytona, however have we ever been in a crazy situation where multiple watch models have been so crazy hard to get from an AD? Aqua's, Nautilus, Daytonas, GMT's, Subs.



It really is bizarre at the moment. A few years ago I would never imagine UK AD windows being "Subless". Even the black DSSD doesn't hang about at the moment - madness!!!

Very true. The landscape is quite a bit different and bizarre (which is the perfect word for it).

The demand is definitely up and the supply isn’t for some reason...and who knows why...lots of ‘conspiracy theories’ and those types of stories floating around.

Personally, I am VERY interested to see how quickly and in what quantities the new Basel releases start showing up...that (to me) will be a good indicator as to whether or not we’ll stay on this roller coaster for a while longer....


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Very true. The landscape is quite a bit different and bizarre (which is the perfect word for it).

The demand is definitely up and the supply isn’t for some reason...and who knows why...lots of ‘conspiracy theories’ and those types of stories floating around.

Illuminati confirmed

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by dmash

Illuminati confirmed

🤣


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[bluebeamer]

yup bought mine for $30.5k in 2013.
put it online for $60k to 'test' the market and someone just offered me $53k.
am seriously considering.

all prices are in SGD by the way.

[LostinNihon]

It may have been mentioned in previous threads, but I think the supply issue could be a reaction to smart watches. Apple is now the #1 selling watch company by volume. The reactions from Patek and Rolex is to limit supply to increase the perception of demand and Patek’s price increase on the 5711 and 5712 perhaps is a way for them to increase the per-watch margins in anticipation of volumes going down. Just my $0.02 ...


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[Vipes]

Originally Posted by LostinNihon

It may have been mentioned in previous threads, but I think the supply issue could be a reaction to smart watches. Apple is now the #1 selling watch company by volume. The reactions from Patek and Rolex is to limit supply to increase the perception of demand and Patek’s price increase on the 5711 and 5712 perhaps is a way for them to increase the per-watch margins in anticipation of volumes going down. Just my $0.02 ...


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Interesting thought.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by LostinNihon

It may have been mentioned in previous threads, but I think the supply issue could be a reaction to smart watches. Apple is now the #1 selling watch company by volume. The reactions from Patek and Rolex is to limit supply to increase the perception of demand and Patek’s price increase on the 5711 and 5712 perhaps is a way for them to increase the per-watch margins in anticipation of volumes going down. Just my $0.02 ...


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Fossil sells more watches than Patek by a huge margin and have for decades so i fail to see the smart watch "issue". They are zero threat to the 20k, 50k, 100+k watch market. They are a threat to Fossil and Swatch and Tissot and the like.

Maybe if the 18K gold apple watch wasn't a flop then you could say smart watches are successfully competing in the luxury space but they aren't.

I can see the argument for watch brands moving upmarket as IMO that is where the future is for mechanical watches. Patek and Rolex are already there though.

[LostinNihon]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

Fossil sells more watches than Patek by a huge margin and have for decades so i fail to see the smart watch "issue". They are zero threat to the 20k, 50k, 100+k watch market. They are a threat to Fossil and Swatch and Tissot and the like.

Maybe if the 18K gold apple watch wasn't a flop then you could say smart watches are successfully competing in the luxury space but they aren't.

I can see the argument for watch brands moving upmarket as IMO that is where the future is for mechanical watches. Patek and Rolex are already there though.

You may be right, and I am not a watch industry person. My observation is that like the quartz crisis, the advent of smart watches is a disruptive technology and even some "haute horology" experts (like Jack Foster from Hodinkee) quite like the Apple watch. The price points of smart watches are a bit above the average Fossil (the gold Apple watch was indeed a flop), so you are correct that they are the companies under immediate threat.

The big and expensive players should see this as a disruptive threat. It has been interesting for me to see how some of thse makers are responding. Some, like Hublot and TAG, are creating smart watches in a $2-5k range and others, like Rolex and Patek, seem to be limiting supply and increasing price - similar reactions to the quartz crisis and also other disruptive technology as highlighted in The Innovators Dilemma. Of course, this is just my speculation

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by LostinNihon

You may be right, and I am not a watch industry person. My observation is that like the quartz crisis, the advent of smart watches is a disruptive technology and even some "haute horology" experts (like Jack Foster from Hodinkee) quite like the Apple watch. The price points of smart watches are a bit above the average Fossil (the gold Apple watch was indeed a flop), so you are correct that they are the companies under immediate threat.

The big and expensive players should see this as a disruptive threat. It has been interesting for me to see how some of thse makers are responding. Some, like Hublot and TAG, are creating smart watches in a $2-5k range and others, like Rolex and Patek, seem to be limiting supply and increasing price - similar reactions to the quartz crisis and also other disruptive technology as highlighted in The Innovators Dilemma. Of course, this is just my speculation

i just think at these price levels you are not buying something to tell the time anyway. The practicalness of a watch has long since passed. Even quartz is probably a better option so i just contend that a high end mechanical watch's function isn't to tell the time at all, but its not a smart watch's function either... its a gadget.

So, the thing getting lost in all of this is neither are necessary for finding out what time it is and i also don't think either overlap in any meaningful sense. Some brands are trying to grab smart watch market share but i think those customers were most likely not going to be buyers of their mechanical offerings anyway. They are the smart watch or no watch people. Nothing wrong with catering to them either.

A lot of people are obsessed with attaching meaning to inanimate objects (not just watches) and you cant do that with a watch that needs to be replaced every year or two. The human element of sentimentality which Patek excels at highlighting is probably the single largest factor.

[Pingparme]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i just think at these price levels you are not buying something to tell the time anyway. The practicalness of a watch has long since passed. Even quartz is probably a better option so i just contend that a high end mechanical watch's function isn't to tell the time at all, but its not a smart watch's function either... its a gadget.

So, the thing getting lost in all of this is neither are necessary for finding out what time it is and i also don't think either overlap in any meaningful sense. Some brands are trying to grab smart watch market share but i think those customers were most likely not going to be buyers of their mechanical offerings anyway. They are the smart watch or no watch people. Nothing wrong with catering to them either.

A lot of people are obsessed with attaching meaning to inanimate objects (not just watches) and you cant do that with a watch that needs to be replaced every year or two. The human element of sentimentality which Patek excels at highlighting is probably the single largest factor.

It doesn’t matter if Apple watches have become the top selling watch. People buy these things for specific purposes and one is not exclusive of the other.

I know many people who have Apple watches who also possess many other mechanical watches at the same time and they wear them according to their needs at that point in time, alternating, either for utility (Apple) or for prestige or other motivations (luxury mechanical).

Not many people really care about telling time on a watch anymore.

For thousands of years, humans have valued jewelries, wearing precious objects around their necks, heads, hands, feet. Its about self beautification, self expression, and in some cases, a status symbol. The luxury watch industry is just an extension of this. It is a modernized way of such expression. Humans, as long as we continue to love beautiful things, appreciate the arts and value intricate, highly skilled and rare craftsmanship, and have the means to acquire, will continue to see these things as a way to satisfy their needs. Not to mention satisfying one’s ego!

The luxury watch industry may mellow down, but it will never die out because it remains many things to many people (form of art, tell the time, as a liquid investment, a way to accessorize and a means to express oneself, or simply to show off to the world, a watch is a great way to express/appreciate/attain all these).

I could personally stare at my watch while taking a break during meal time, in the car waiting at the lights, after a phone call in the office, etc. and when I look at how beautiful the dial of my 5170P is or the sleekness of my 5711 (330SC) or the splendid work that went into creating my bespoke Artisans de Geneve Daytona 6240 Tropical (oxidized in the Bahamas)..... it makes my day.

No one can predict how much a watch will be worth in 30 years time, but as long as you buy the watch you like and wear it to enjoy, that’s the essence of watch collecting.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by LostinNihon

It may have been mentioned in previous threads, but I think the supply issue could be a reaction to smart watches. Apple is now the #1 selling watch company by volume. The reactions from Patek and Rolex is to limit supply to increase the perception of demand and Patek’s price increase on the 5711 and 5712 perhaps is a way for them to increase the per-watch margins in anticipation of volumes going down. Just my $0.02 ...


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All those folks who think the entire watch market is in a bubble are wrong in my view. Pocket watches were the way of the world for years. Then along came the wristwatch in WWI and the trend to smaller wearable watches began. Pocket watch demand did not collapse over night but was down to nothing by the 1940's. Now it is a very small boutique industry with few makers and buyers. Watches fought back and forth over quartz or mechanical all the while still enjoying utility. Now virtually every person again carries a "pocket watch" which tells them the time date and everything else a smart phone can. No one needs a traditional watch anymore. They are pure redundancy. The folks who prefer wrist objects are wearing smart watches. Most people I see are not wearing watches. The entire watch industry is in a slow but steady decline to a few boutique companies making products few people will buy. The only life left in the watch market is sports watches and that demand will decline. I would be a seller of the few SS sport models that sell way over MSRP at this point. I think folks buying used Nautiluses at 60K are bound to regret that purchase at some point. There are actually a lot of them out there. The trend to connected devices becomes more and more apparent to me. The old collectables will always be valuable because there are so darn few of them and cannot be compared to current production models with years and years of manufacture.

[scrappy]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

All those folks who think the entire watch market is in a bubble are wrong in my view. Pocket watches were the way of the world for years. Then along came the wristwatch in WWI and the trend to smaller wearable watches began. Pocket watch demand did not collapse over night but was down to nothing by the 1940's. Now it is a very small boutique industry with few makers and buyers. Watches fought back and forth over quartz or mechanical all the while still enjoying utility. Now virtually every person again carries a "pocket watch" which tells them the time date and everything else a smart phone can. No one needs a traditional watch anymore. They are pure redundancy. The folks who prefer wrist objects are wearing smart watches. Most people I see are not wearing watches. The entire watch industry is in a slow but steady decline to a few boutique companies making products few people will buy. The only life left in the watch market is sports watches and that demand will decline. I would be a seller of the few SS sport models that sell way over MSRP at this point. I think folks buying used Nautiluses at 60K are bound to regret that purchase at some point. There are actually a lot of them out there. The trend to connected devices becomes more and more apparent to me. The old collectables will always be valuable because there are so darn few of them and cannot be compared to current production models with years and years of manufacture.

This. It is the reality which few seem to talk about. I personally foresee only a handful of luxury watch brands surviving the coming market shift with Rolex and Patek being the most obvious ones. The key will be preserving their exclusivity through disciplined supply/price strategies and resisting the temptation to satisfy a market that's screaming for steel sport watches.

[HAL330]

I predict the 5711 and Nautilus in general will always remain a premium watch, selling in short supply and fetching above market prices on the secondary market, but they will not raise to the level of the 3700 or the vintage Daytona.. that ship sailed.

[AK797]

The Daytona has been overdemanded for many many years now, whereas with the Naut it is a very new phenomenon, not 2 years ago you could buy at a discount from even UK ADs, and we had a price cut too, so the future of the Nautilus is not as guaranteed or consistent as the Daytona's imho. That said the polarising design seems to have been accepted and so while the Patek name reigns supreme, their top sports SS, if it remains the Naut, will be highly coveted.

[Fleetlord]

It's interesting to see a trade scenario where one trades a watch they paid $25K for and gets $50K for it...Then they obtain a watch with a retail of $50K plus that is horologically "better" and it will barely fetch $25K on the "market"...