Hypothesis: Rolex is about to flood the market with BLNRs and BLROs

[envuks]

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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[GB-man]

Maybe so. Would be a good move in my opinion.

[tyler1980]

people predicted that last year with the BLRO, didn't happen.... that said, this year it does actually make sense in context of thinning out the line up.

If they actually do it, no idea, but the theory is sound

[Jim Smyth]

I hope your right and its about time! If I was a flipper or a Grey dealer I would be concerned about this. Dont want to be holding Large inventories when the music stops playing.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Jim Smyth

I hope your right and its about time! If I was a flipper or a Grey dealer I would be concerned about this. Dont want to be holding Large inventories when the music stops playing.

That would only happen if Rolex floods all their 4000 ADs with 10 BLNR and BLRO to showcase. That simply won't happen. Grey dealers move with prices based on supply.

[Pol1]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

people predicted that last year with the BLRO, didn't happen.... that said, this year it does actually make sense in context of thinning out the line up.

If they actually do it, no idea, but the theory is sound

Mine is predicaten for 02/2020...

[TimingIsEverything]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Maybe so. Would be a good move in my opinion.

I agree this would be a good move. They would likely sell all of them, then they make more and sell those too.

This is why I don't understand the "shortage". If you can make more watches and sell them, why wouldn't you?

[2nastie]

Originally Posted by TimingIsEverything

This is why I don't understand the "shortage". If you can make more watches and sell them, why wouldn't you?

The only reason why they don't ramp up production is to preserve or continue to grow brand prestige.

Yes, producing 1,000,000 watches a year is considered a mass-produced product (especially to us WIS), but in the grand scheme of things, where an individual can typically purchase more than one piece a year, it isn't an outrageous amount.

Rolex survives on people thinking its rare, reliable, and retains value. As soon as you tip the scale one way or the other it could create problems.

...

In theory, by eliminating part of a product line (GMT Black + GMT TT + GMT Full Gold), it should create more supply of the other GMTs. But who knows, Rolex might move to produce more DJs and promote those products instead. We think it's broken, doesn't mean Rolex does... they are still moving more or less the same number of Professional watches but now even the DJ/DD, etc. sells. The DJ/DD lines are probably the true money makers... it's a time only watch that sells for the same if not more than a Professional line.

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Maybe so. Would be a good move in my opinion.

In what world would blowing up all of their free hype and marketing be a good move? Rolex is making bank off of all of the attention that they're getting right now and they don't have to spend a dime for it.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by jsausley

In what world would blowing up all of their free hype and marketing be a good move? Rolex is making bank off of all of the attention that they're getting right now and they don't have to spend a dime for it.

Exactly. They made themselves a Veblen good.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by jsausley

In what world would blowing up all of their free hype and marketing be a good move? Rolex is making bank off of all of the attention that they're getting right now and they don't have to spend a dime for it.

In the world where Rolex goes back to focusing on the very long game like before the current CEO.

Rolex does not have shareholders to appease every quarter. They simply don’t have to operate this way.

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by GB-man

In the world where Rolex goes back to focusing on the very long game like before the current CEO.

Rolex does not have shareholders to appease every quarter. They simply don’t have to operate this way.

..right, which is why they don't mind a "shortage." What is happening now is good for Rolex long term -- hype and free marketing via social media. They're getting billions of dollars worth of free advertising on social media by all of these #watchfam instagrammers constantly posting hard to get Rolex watches for their own likes/subscribes.

I still maintain there is no shortage, just a significant uptick in demand.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by jsausley

..right, which is why they don't mind a "shortage." What is happening now is good for Rolex long term -- hype and free marketing via social media. They're getting billions of dollars worth of free advertising on social media by all of these #watchfam instagrammers constantly posting hard to get Rolex watches for their own likes/subscribes.

I still maintain there is no shortage, just a significant uptick in demand.

You may be right all I know is it makes the hobby less interesting so I’m going to play Clint Eastwood and tell all the IG F bois who don’t know jack squat about watches to get off my lawn.

Thank god rolex released a bunch of duds at Basel this year.

[RobearH]

Originally Posted by envuks

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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Plausible deduction...lets hope so!

[David5807]

Originally Posted by RobearH

Plausible deduction...lets hope so!

Second this

[jfmiii]

this was my first thought as well. time will tell. the BLRO/BLNR arent Daytonas. people arent beating down the door of ADs post-Basel like 2016 and 2018. there is a larger strategy behind a totally lackluster release. will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

[tng11]

Makes sense, but my theory is that greys and flippers will just hoover up all of them anyways and trickle them out, so visually it looks just as rare even if supply has increased. The market just seems so manipulated these days.

I personally would welcome an increase in supply even though I own both BLNR and BLRO. Less worry in wearing them, as I know I can replace them if something bad happens to them.

[Lifeisarolliecoaster]

Originally Posted by tng11

Makes sense, but my theory is that greys and flippers will just hoover up all of them anyways and trickle them out, so visually it looks just as rare even if supply has increased. The market just seems so manipulated these days.

I personally would welcome an increase in supply even though I own both BLNR and BLRO. Less worry in wearing them, as I know I can replace them if something bad happens to them.

A stolen BLRO and BLNR sounds like a minefield to replace from an insurance point of view in the UK. Factor in relative scarcity. An increase in production will help to alleviate this but it’s going to take some time with all the pent up demand.

[mdaclarke]

Originally Posted by tng11

Makes sense, but my theory is that greys and flippers will just hoover up all of them anyways and trickle them out, so visually it looks just as rare even if supply has increased. The market just seems so manipulated these days.

I personally would welcome an increase in supply even though I own both BLNR and BLRO. Less worry in wearing them, as I know I can replace them if something bad happens to them.

That is a lot of capital to invest up front. Also will the AD's risk knowingly selling to the grey market in bulk.

[mrloneranger]

So is the new BLNR only available with a Jubilee Bracelet from now on? or can you spec it with an Oyster?

[SuperLeggera]

Originally Posted by mrloneranger

So is the new BLNR only available with a Jubilee Bracelet from now on? or can you spec it with an Oyster?

Just Jubliee for 2019

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by SuperLeggera

Just Jubliee for 2019

Correct. Makes no sense, imo. I happen to like the Jubilee on the GMT, but not everyone does. I don't see why Rolex can't offer the choice between it and the Oyster. They do it on the DJ.

[Wrist King]

You reckon the oyster on the 116622 is not long for this world ?

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[zjd168]

maybe some intangible increase supply of the BLRO/Blnr, but nowhere close to "flooding", Even the total SS GMT output equals before, please keep in mind there will be a lot more buyers to take the BLRO/BLNR who took passed on the black LN before.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by envuks

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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I don't think they're upping any production. Rather, I think Rolex is strategically continuing to create "brand value". What I mean by that is they are driving all demand for a black (and classic 40mm sized) SS ceramic Professional model to the Submariner/Date.

I'd expect that continue for close to 5 years and then the updated Sub will come in SS. When it's all said and done the LN will equal LV in secondary market values (wherever that number ends up falling).

But Rolex will NOT allow the GMT Master to sell at a long-term premium to the Submariner in pre-owned markets. Whatever they need to do, they'll do I'd expect. And for those that think Rolex doesn't care about secondary market values, think again. The secondary market values drives "brand". If it didn't, Breitling, Omega, and other competing brands wouldn't need to worry about NIB watches being discounted so much.

Part of that long-term value is stability. So with that, why would they rush to update.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I don't think they're upping any production. Rather, I think Rolex is strategically continuing to create "brand value". What I mean by that is they are driving all demand for a black (and classic 40mm sized) SS ceramic Professional model to the Submariner/Date.

I'd expect that continue for close to 5 years and then the updated Sub will come in SS. When it's all said and done the LN will equal LV in secondary market values (wherever that number ends up falling).

But Rolex will NOT allow the GMT Master to sell at a long-term premium to the Submariner in pre-owned markets. Whatever they need to do, they'll do I'd expect. And for those that think Rolex doesn't care about secondary market values, think again. The secondary market values drives "brand". If it didn't, Breitling, Omega, and other competing brands wouldn't need to worry about NIB watches being discounted so much.

Part of that long-term value is stability. So with that, why would they rush to update.

I don’t see why not they’ve priced it higher to begin with

[904VT]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t see why not they’ve priced it higher to begin with

I meant more of a significant and meaningful premium. A few hundred dollars in either direction, I consider less. When the SD4k was selling $2k under MSRP in the secondary market, Rolex created the SD43 after a very short SD4k run. That helped solve.

This time at least imo, Rolex is setting up the Submariner LNs to run up in value for a while before a new introduction. With no Oyster option in SS for the GMT Master in LN, I think demand will skyrocket for LN Subs.

[glamorama]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I meant more of a significant and meaningful premium. A few hundred dollars in either direction, I consider less. When the SD4k was selling $2k under MSRP in the secondary market, Rolex created the SD43 after a very short SD4k run. That helped solve.

This time at least imo, Rolex is setting up the Submariner LNs to run up in value for a while before a new introduction. With no Oyster option in SS for the GMT Master in LN, I think demand will skyrocket for LN Subs.

This makes sense.

I said before Bazel that I thought LN would be discontinued since people have talked about Rolex wanting to make the black bezel unique for the divers.

[ruffa]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I meant more of a significant and meaningful premium. A few hundred dollars in either direction, I consider less. When the SD4k was selling $2k under MSRP in the secondary market, Rolex created the SD43 after a very short SD4k run. That helped solve.

This time at least imo, Rolex is setting up the Submariner LNs to run up in value for a while before a new introduction. With no Oyster option in SS for the GMT Master in LN, I think demand will skyrocket for LN Subs.

You, friend, are a genius. Makes a ton of sense. Almost wanting to purchase the LN now

[Token74]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t see why not they’ve priced it higher to begin with

Agree, and so they should. It’s a more complex watch, it makes sense that the GMT is priced higher. I know it doesn’t always work this way, but it’s logical.

Re the OP’s post, I can’t see why they’d flood the market with BLNR’s and BLRO’s. I can’t believe for one moment that the LN will remain discontinued. My expectation is that Rolex will relaunch the LN later this year with the new movement and likely on the jubilee bracelet. As much as people rave about the coloured bezels, the market is huge for a standard black bezel. I assume they haven’t relaunched it with the new movement at Basel because they still have some current stock that they need to sell through (either fulfilling current lists/orders or via unofficial routes), and they’d struggle to offload if they’d launched a new one. That’s just a guess though.

I assume they will then complete the lineup by adding the Coke at Basel the year after next (proper guessing now) and that will be the GMT done with for a few years.






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