Rolex shortage

[Davidwang]

I went to a Rolex AD in LA. Nothing is there except some diamond watches and gold skydweller. The first word from the sales mouth is there is no any stainless watch available in store. I asked if they have the YG YMII (the 116688) and they even sold those watch out. Yellow gold model even has shortage? Crazy!! Is the happening everywhere?


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[Dr Watches]

Yes, they're sparse everywhere. LA, NYC, SF, Chicago, etc are probably worse than most places.

[enjoythemusic]

Check chrono24, DavidSW, and other places. There are plenty out there.

https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/ref-116688.htm#gref

[Davidwang]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Check chrono24, DavidSW, and other places. There are plenty out there.

https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/ref-116688.htm#gref

Yea, they are nice places to buy watches and I bought from some reputable sellers on TRF and Cheono24. Great experience. Hands down.


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[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by Davidwang

I went to a Rolex AD in LA. Nothing is there except some diamond watches and gold skydweller. The first word from the sales mouth is there is no any stainless watch available in store. I asked if they have the YG YMII (the 116688) and they even sold those watch out. Yellow gold model even has shortage? Crazy!! Is the happening everywhere?

This started in the fall of 2017, and has continued ever since. The situation is generally worldwide. A hefty percentage of this forum's threads are dedicated to this situation, so do a search, and you'll find out more than you ever wanted to know.

That said, the shortage has pretty much been limited to stainless steel sports models. We're starting to see a spillover effect into some other models, as buyers turn their sights to watches they might not otherwise consider. PM models - especially those in less popular models like the YMII - typically aren't affected. That could change as hotter models in stainless start approaching PM prices, and buyers start to think they'd be better off paying a little more for gold. But I have to think that YMII being sold out is specific to that AD, and isn't the norm. You should have no problem sourcing that at another AD.

[Davidwang]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

This started in the fall of 2017, and has continued ever since. The situation is generally worldwide. A hefty percentage of this forum's threads are dedicated to this situation, so do a search, and you'll find out more than you ever wanted to know.

That said, the shortage has pretty much been limited to stainless steel sports models. We're starting to see a spillover effect into some other models, as buyers turn their sights to watches they might not otherwise consider. PM models - especially those in less popular models like the YMII - typically aren't affected. That could change as hotter models in stainless start approaching PM prices, and buyers start to think they'd be better off paying a little more for gold. But I have to think that YMII being sold out is specific to that AD, and isn't the norm. You should have no problem sourcing that at another AD.

I am just curious about where the gold watches go? Not sure if there is any discount if they have it in store. I went to one LA Rolex ADs and called two, and no one has the 116688. Maybe it is what you said, it is a local issue. I just want to try it on my wrist before I buy it from reputable sellers on TRF.



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[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by Davidwang

I am just curious about where the gold watches go?

I couldn't tell you. Gold generally moves more slowly than SS, and the YMII is a slow seller overall. That's slow on slow. That isn't to say they don't sell at all, of course, so it's possible the few pieces in the area have sold, and the ADs haven't gotten in replacements yet. If I were you, I'd get the name of the AD where blada4life thinks he saw one, and see if you can find it. Otherwise, give it time, or look beyond LA.

[blada4life]

Originally Posted by Davidwang

I went to a Rolex AD in LA. Nothing is there except some diamond watches and gold skydweller. The first word from the sales mouth is there is no any stainless watch available in store. I asked if they have the YG YMII (the 116688) and they even sold those watch out. Yellow gold model even has shortage? Crazy!! Is the happening everywhere?


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If you’re looking for one I think I may have just seen a gold ym2 at an AD in LA. But yea, not much there


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[doboy007]

It’s not really selling out when they likely had one sitting for a long time before they got lucky.

[spoon-turbo]

There is really no shortage. Stocks are readily available if you pay premium

[Davidwang]

Originally Posted by spoon-turbo

There is really no shortage. Stocks are readily available if you pay premium

In economics, premium is actually known as shortage pricing


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[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by spoon-turbo

There is really no shortage. Stocks are readily available if you pay premium

I think these days when people say shortage it means shortage at AD at MSRP.

Everyone knows you can pay premium and get Daytona C and Pepsi BLRO within 24hrs

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

I think these days when people say shortage it means shortage at AD at MSRP.

Everyone knows you can pay premium and get Daytona C and Pepsi BLRO within 24hrs

My first reaction to the topic title was to think that technically there isn't a shortage. But that's hair splitting. We all know what the situation is. Or at least, what it looks like.

[spoon-turbo]

@Davidwang @brucethemanlee
I stand corrected. I agree with your points.

[Davidwang]

Originally Posted by spoon-turbo

@Davidwang @brucethemanlee
I stand corrected. I agree with your points.

Lol, I know you were joking:)


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[spoon-turbo]

Originally Posted by Davidwang

Lol, I know you were joking:)


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Lol.. more like being polite to elders in the forum haha

[Seibei]

There is no shortage. They are easily available at grey dealers.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Seibei

There is no shortage. They are easily available at grey dealers.

Please stop being cute using this particular terminology.

By that definition there is no food shortage anywhere in the world because because people can pay as much as they want to in order to get food wherever they may be?


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[Seibei]

Originally Posted by teck21

Please stop being cute using this particular terminology.

OK, demand exceeds supply and AD prices are artificially low. Most of these watches are however easily obtainable for those who are ready to pay a premium, arguably the correct market price. In that sense there is no shortage. With regards to the availability of certain watches at ADs the word shortage is inadequate. The watches are simply not available.

A dealer may get 5 watches of a certain type per year and have more than 200 people on a waiting list for it. Someone who just randomly walks in is never going to get that watch.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Seibei

OK, demand exceeds supply and AD prices are artificially low. Most of these watches are however easily obtainable for those who are ready to pay a premium, arguably the correct market price. In that sense there is no shortage. With regards to the availability of certain watches at ADs the word shortage is inadequate. The watches are simply not available.

A dealer may get 5 watches of a certain type per year and have more than 200 people on a waiting list for it. Someone who just randomly walks in is never going to get that watch.

That is true, the price points at which Rolex sell their popular SS models is arguably deeply discounted to the true market discovered price, ie grey prices.

Rolex could raise the MSRP to match the greys, and that would quite possibly make it possible once again for anyone to walk into an AD and buy any model they wished because these new price points would frankly wipe out a large chunk of demand. Demand being people WILLING AND ABLE to afford it

But Rolex are in the business of brand preservation for the very long haul, and they understand that the current demand is a product of many factors, some of which might be very short term in nature.

Hence raising prices could end being a very bad move for the brand in the long run.

Pretty sure Rolex doesn’t like the idea of syndicates profiteering through the grey market because it really is costing them a lot of customer goodwill, but tolerate it because killing the greys may have even more undesirable outcomes for Rolex in the longer term.




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[RobearH]

Originally Posted by teck21

That is true, the price points at which Rolex sell their popular SS models is arguably deeply discounted to the true market discovered price, ie grey prices.

Rolex could raise the MSRP to match the greys, and that would quite possibly make it possible once again for anyone to walk into an AD and buy any model they wished because these new price points would frankly wipe out a large chunk of demand. Demand being people WILLING AND ABLE to afford it

But Rolex are in the business of brand preservation for the very long haul, and they understand that the current demand is a product of many factors, some of which might be very short term in nature.

Hence raising prices could end being a very bad move for the brand in the long run.

Pretty sure Rolex doesn’t like the idea of syndicates profiteering through the grey market because it really is costing them a lot of customer goodwill, but tolerate it because killing the greys may have even more undesirable outcomes for Rolex in the longer term.




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Excellent post.

[oldman2005]

Originally Posted by teck21

...
Rolex could raise the MSRP to match the greys, and that would quite possibly make it possible once again for anyone to walk into an AD and buy any model they wished because these new price points would frankly wipe out a large chunk of demand. Demand being people WILLING AND ABLE to afford it

...

It' not a real supply/demand issue but Rolex intentional restricts the production of SS to create an artificial hyper demand for such watch as SS BLRO,.. If each AD only get 2-4 SS BLRO per year, there's no way you can satisfy the demand even you increase the price by 100%. If you have good relationship with your Rolex ADs, ask them how many SS BLRO they got last year? I doubt it's 400 but only 4 per AD.

It's not in the best interest of Rolex to sell these low profit margin SS Sport watches instead the bread and butter of Rolex profit comes from DJ/TT/PM.

[R G]

Originally Posted by Seibei

OK, demand exceeds supply and AD prices are artificially low. Most of these watches are however easily obtainable for those who are ready to pay a premium, arguably the correct market price. In that sense there is no shortage. With regards to the availability of certain watches at ADs the word shortage is inadequate. The watches are simply not available.

A dealer may get 5 watches of a certain type per year and have more than 200 people on a waiting list for it. Someone who just randomly walks in is never going to get that watch.

There is a shortage. End of, however you cut it.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by R G

There is a shortage. End of, however you cut it.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...ight=Inventory

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by teck21

Please stop being cute using this particular terminology.

By that definition there is no food shortage anywhere in the world because because people can pay as much as they want to in order to get food wherever they may be?


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+1


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[WatchLurv]

There is a shortage. Grey dealers pick up crappy pieces so they can have the steel available.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

There is a shortage. Grey dealers pick up crappy pieces so they can have the steel available.

“Crappy” pieces so they can have steel? What have we become?

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

“Crappy” pieces so they can have steel?

Lady datejusts with flower dial and all that stuff. "Crappy" meaning "slow moving" pieces

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Lady datejusts with flower dial and all that stuff. "Crappy" meaning "slow moving" pieces

I know what you meant

[exador]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

There is a shortage. Grey dealers pick up crappy pieces so they can have the steel available.

And then what becomes of these “crappy pieces”?