Grey Market Slipping and Struggling ?

[Explorer2polar]

Hi TRF,

Please feel free to comment on my observations and view point.

As an avid market watcher (UK) I have noticed the Grey re-sellers now find themselves discounting prices to stimulate business. It appears to me that stock is not moving at all and the Greys are getting twitchy with so much money/stock tied up in their Shops and Safe's.

The Part Time occasional flipper ( Bought a Rolex to make money on it) is now getting cold feet and some heavy hitting Rolex models are available at relative discounted prices (New Daytona White/Ceramic available for £ 18.9K was £ 22k a couple of months back).

In general I have seen the Rolex market just start to move a little in favour of the True WIS and perhaps this is the start of the end for the Rolex speculators. I hope.

I have spoke to my local AD today and they say Rolex UK are applying massive pressure on them to ensure all Rolex sales are to bona fide customers and any transgressors are reported to Rolex HQ for further analysis and action.

Just a few thoughts.

Happy New Year

[FATO]

I have noticed prices slipping on Chrono24 as well. Grey huge mark ups reflects excessive greed. I’ll be laughing when these grey dealers go out if business


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[Calatrava r]

The overall watch market is softening. Demand for SS sports type watches was not going to rise forever at the rate it was. Everything is cyclical.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

The overall watch market is softening. Demand for SS sports type watches was not going to rise forever at the rate it was. Everything is cyclical.

X2. There comes a point when things hit its high mark and then settles slightly lower to stabilize. What some feel is that the industry will crash back down to msrp normal and I am not sure we will ever see that anytime soon. There is a very good possibility that it could stabilize for a while, establish a new normal and then edge up again.

When AD’s have full cases and start to sell below msrp will you ever see any significant change in the Rolex market.

[SeaAndSky]

Originally Posted by Calatravank r

The overall watch market is softening. Demand for SS sports type watches was not going to rise forever at the rate it was. Everything is cyclical.

Yep. Rolex is run by some thoughtful people taking a very long look down the road. Watch use is in decline. Aside from true mechanical watch lovers like us on this forum (a really small financially insignificant bunch) the only really significant group of watch buyers going forward are the flashy pretentious types who buy a thing because of how others will react to the thing. I know I’ll take some flak for that statement but it remains true. High quality tool watch demand is in decline and Rolex knows it. I think they’ll continue to try to raise prices and limit production going forward in order to survive as long as possible. But it won’t matter as wrist watches continue to fade from existence. Eventually the bubble will burst.

[Patton250]

It’s amazing that what we are truly discussing here is the hope and possible celebration that Rolex prices are receding back from being marked up double MSRP. Wow. It will definitely be interesting to see how supply at the AD’s pan out this year. That will have a direct impact on Grey pricing or more importantly profit to the flipper.

[spoon-turbo]

Maybe a minor price correction. But I do not think prices of hot models from grey will ever go back to msrp.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by spoon-turbo

Maybe a minor price correction. But I do not think prices of hot models from grey will ever go back to msrp.

Msrp is not the goal, grey’s services in the not too distant past provided discounts to the the buyer.

Desirable Steel models were commonly 10% off and readily available to attract the buyers. This was the service, the buyer could get it right away and save a few bucks.... it was a good thing for all but then that thing called greed comes in to play and here we are.

[Colin W]

Originally Posted by subtona

Msrp is not the goal, grey’s services in the not too distant past provided discounts to the the buyer.



Desirable Steel models were commonly 10% off and readily available to attract the buyers. This was the service, the buyer could get it right away and save a few bucks.... it was a good thing for all but then that thing called greed comes in to play and here we are.

So true - those were the days, if only we could wind back the clock!


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[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by subtona

Msrp is not the goal, grey’s services in the not too distant past provided discounts to the the buyer.

Desirable Steel models were commonly 10% off and readily available to attract the buyers. This was the service, the buyer could get it right away and save a few bucks.... it was a good thing for all but then that thing called greed comes in to play and here we are.

No. Rolex changed the supply and here we are. Same greys still about.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

No. Rolex changed the supply and here we are. Same greys still about.

there remains an ever present abundance of stock available outside the AD network.

“Same Grey’s are still about” but they are not providing the same services.
Hoarding of stock, images of windows and counter tops full of dozens of the same SS models speaks to the growing greed but if you choose to believe that rolex has cut supply as a justification for paying double msrp and being fictionally waitlisted be my guest

[red1108nyc]

Originally Posted by subtona

there remains an ever present abundance of stock available outside the AD network.

“Same Grey’s are still about” but they are not providing the same services.
Hoarding of stock, images of windows and counter tops full of dozens of the same SS models speaks to the growing greed but if you choose to believe that rolex has cut supply as a justification for paying double msrp and being fictionally waitlisted be my guest

spot on.

[iliketime]

People finally realized its not worth it to throw their hard earned money away and stop playing the game

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by iliketime

People finally realized its not worth it to throw their hard earned money away and stop playing the game

That would be awesome but I doubt it. What $100,000 is to one person is $10,000 to another person and $1000 to another person and $100 to another person and $10 to another person. What I mean by that is sometimes paying double for $12,400 watch to some people isn’t that big of a deal. It certainly is to me though.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That would be awesome but I doubt it. What $100,000 is to one person is $10,000 to another person and $1000 to another person and $100 to another person and $10 to another person. What I mean by that is sometimes paying double for $12,400 watch to some people isn’t that big of a deal. It certainly is to me though.

I think those people already got their watches at double the MSRP though, saturation point has to be reached when the watches are still in production (Minus the Daytona)

[iliketime]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That would be awesome but I doubt it. What $100,000 is to one person is $10,000 to another person and $1000 to another person and $100 to another person and $10 to another person. What I mean by that is sometimes paying double for $12,400 watch to some people isn’t that big of a deal. It certainly is to me though.

Agreed, most of us work very hard to afford these nice things but there are just folks out there with very deep pockets. If they can afford to pay double msrp, salud to them. I guess they just want it that bad. Luckily for me, the six digit serials mostly do not appeal to me.

[SeaAndSky]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That would be awesome but I doubt it. What $100,000 is to one person is $10,000 to another person and $1000 to another person and $100 to another person and $10 to another person. What I mean by that is sometimes paying double for $12,400 watch to some people isn’t that big of a deal. It certainly is to me though.

Good post. And the flashy pretentious types always seem to be closer to the ten dollars out of pocket types. Prices will remain high at the greedy grays for foreseeable future.

[scarlet knight]

Nautilus, AP and Rolex SS will sink to MRSP. But no one will want to buy them.

[locutus49]

You must be from the UK. Brits have this obsession with greys. The reality is that regardless of the price people will always want the hottest watches. And I don't see that changing from the hot brands, i.e. Rolex, AP, and Patek. Those three brands will likely remain popular for the foreseeable future.

Wishful thinking is a dominant feature of posts on "the market." I don't pay much attention to specific prices but generally speaking, waitlists or non-waitlists remain and therefore the grey market is viable.

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Nautilus, AP and Rolex SS will sink to MRSP. But no one will want to buy them.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by locutus49

You must be from the UK. Brits have this obsession with greys.

Not all of us. I can walk into a grey dealer and buy a Rolex Unicorn while I am still young enough to get some enjoyment out of it. That's what grey dealers are for. I can also buy a desirable Omega, Breitling, Tag, etc for significantly under MSRP with the stickers still on. That's what grey dealers are for. I can walk into my AD, show them the grey price on any watch which trades under MSRP and ask them to match it. And the will. This is what grey dealers are for.

Some people think the sole purpose of a business is to open, sell them exactly what they want at the price they want, give them a ridiculously overblown price on their trade in, then close down and go out of business as soon as their arse is out the door. Here's a tip for people who think businesses work like that - never ever try to go into business.

[joli160]

I don't know where you get that idea but prices are actually going up following the increase from Rolex.

[djgallo]

It’s natural for all markets to fluctuate...there’s too many micro fanatics on this forum crying the sky is falling when a few down ticks in prices occur...relax.

[pj1369]

Originally Posted by djgallo

It’s natural for all markets to fluctuate...there’s too many micro fanatics on this forum crying the sky is falling when a few down ticks in prices occur...relax.

Agree fully.


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[Mystro]

We are in a bubble here on this forum. To the rest of the world and especially the affluent, they are just catching on that a ”Rolex” is fashionable and in vogue like the 1980’s. The trouble is unlike the 1980‘s they can’t just go into a dealer to buy one. Most people don’t have watch connections and will just Google a source and this is why paying a inflated price is not a real factor. Look at the mark-up on a quality diamond. The premium on a Rolex is nothing and that is how it will be justified. Rolex is a luxury item targeted to that demographic way of thinking.

You start buying a luxury item out of financial context for what ever reason and you start to see a primary focus on price points and not the actual product. This is the dichotomy of the enthusiast and the luxury brand image that Rolex markets to and its primary buying demographic.

If you are a “enthusiast” then this is the “Rolex baggage” we use to speak of all the time on this forum. Today the new influx of commodity traders have blurred the lines so now enthusiast either don’t get a watch or have to pay beyond their comfort zone on a luxury item that is clearly moving more upscale than it was years back.

[TswaneNguni]

What people are prepared to pay ,is what the price will be .

Minor correction ,which may go up in January due to Rolex increase on MRSP .

Demand wont drop due to the moderate increase .Don't expect more stock available at the AD.

The status quo remains .

[Pesto628]

Originally Posted by Mystro

We are in a bubble here on this forum. To the rest of the world and especially the affluent, they are just catching on that a ”Rolex” is fashionable and in vogue like the 1980’s. The trouble is unlike the 1980‘s they can’t just go into a dealer to buy one. Most people don’t have watch connections and will just Google a source and this is why paying a inflated price is not a real factor. Look at the mark-up on a quality diamond. The premium on a Rolex is nothing and that is how it will be justified. Rolex is a luxury item targeted to that demographic way of thinking.

You start buying a luxury item out of financial context for what ever reason and you start to see a primary focus on price points and not the actual product. This is the dichotomy of the enthusiast and the luxury brand image that Rolex markets to and its primary buying demographic.

If you are a “enthusiast” then this is the “Rolex baggage” we use to speak of all the time on this forum. Today the new influx of commodity traders have blurred the lines so now enthusiast either don’t get a watch or have to pay beyond their comfort zone on a luxury item that is clearly moving more upscale than it was years back.

Totally agree TRF is a bubble. In the “real world” not one of my friends is even aware of any kind of SS unavailability. I would bet that most if not all of them would be uninterested in acquiring a SS Daytona at retail; They simply don’t know they can sell it for double what they paid.

As it’s been mentioned many times over these models are not limited edition. As Rolex continues to produce, more customers will get. There is still a finite number of people willing to pay a markup let alone retail.


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[Jesse_Livermore]

This:

Originally Posted by Mystro

We are in a bubble here on this forum. To the rest of the world and especially the affluent, they are just catching on that a ”Rolex” is fashionable and in vogue like the 1980’s. The trouble is unlike the 1980‘s they can’t just go into a dealer to buy one. Most people don’t have watch connections and will just Google a source and this is why paying a inflated price is not a real factor. Look at the mark-up on a quality diamond. The premium on a Rolex is nothing and that is how it will be justified. Rolex is a luxury item targeted to that demographic way of thinking.

You start buying a luxury item out of financial context for what ever reason and you start to see a primary focus on price points and not the actual product. This is the dichotomy of the enthusiast and the luxury brand image that Rolex markets to and its primary buying demographic.

If you are a “enthusiast” then this is the “Rolex baggage” we use to speak of all the time on this forum. Today the new influx of commodity traders have blurred the lines so now enthusiast either don’t get a watch or have to pay beyond their comfort zone on a luxury item that is clearly moving more upscale than it was years back.

[pepsiretail]

Originally Posted by Mystro

We are in a bubble here on this forum. To the rest of the world and especially the affluent, they are just catching on that a ”Rolex” is fashionable and in vogue like the 1980’s. The trouble is unlike the 1980‘s they can’t just go into a dealer to buy one. Most people don’t have watch connections and will just Google a source and this is why paying a inflated price is not a real factor. Look at the mark-up on a quality diamond. The premium on a Rolex is nothing and that is how it will be justified. Rolex is a luxury item targeted to that demographic way of thinking.

You start buying a luxury item out of financial context for what ever reason and you start to see a primary focus on price points and not the actual product. This is the dichotomy of the enthusiast and the luxury brand image that Rolex markets to and its primary buying demographic.

If you are a “enthusiast” then this is the “Rolex baggage” we use to speak of all the time on this forum. Today the new influx of commodity traders have blurred the lines so now enthusiast either don’t get a watch or have to pay beyond their comfort zone on a luxury item that is clearly moving more upscale than it was years back.

Very intelligent analysis.

[chloebear]

Originally Posted by Mystro

We are in a bubble here on this forum. To the rest of the world and especially the affluent, they are just catching on that a ”Rolex” is fashionable and in vogue like the 1980’s. The trouble is unlike the 1980‘s they can’t just go into a dealer to buy one. Most people don’t have watch connections and will just Google a source and this is why paying a inflated price is not a real factor. Look at the mark-up on a quality diamond. The premium on a Rolex is nothing and that is how it will be justified. Rolex is a luxury item targeted to that demographic way of thinking.

You start buying a luxury item out of financial context for what ever reason and you start to see a primary focus on price points and not the actual product. This is the dichotomy of the enthusiast and the luxury brand image that Rolex markets to and its primary buying demographic.

If you are a “enthusiast” then this is the “Rolex baggage” we use to speak of all the time on this forum. Today the new influx of commodity traders have blurred the lines so now enthusiast either don’t get a watch or have to pay beyond their comfort zone on a luxury item that is clearly moving more upscale than it was years back.

Great post Mystro. Nailed it.

[WatchLurv]

Prices are set in Hong Kong. Prices have been dropping since the 2nd week of the protest that started on the 9th of June (or was it the 6th?). When the first week 1M people took to the street and the 2nd week 2M took to the streets and with the escalation of violence (as even seen today, Chinese people with their suitcases were chased down on a footbridge), the Chinese have stayed away and kept Hong Kong at arm's length.

Prices have been controlled by the Chinese being able to buy watches at these prices and "frying" (as a local saying) them. The rest of the world has just reaped their rewards by picking up these watches, bringing them back and setting their own price with VAT/GST.

Displays at Rolex will remain unchanged as supply will stay the same. Good luck thinking it'll hit MSRP or below MSRP. The premium will always be there unless Rolex changes up strategy and start sending out merchandise like 2015 again.

Tom, Dick and Harry may have been on a list for a Batman and may have benefited from the pricehike by selling to greys, but they aren't the driving force behind the premiums.

Did grey prices increase over Christmas? Hardly so. Where was the demand then? Or did DOW drop 5 points so people staved off buying a Daytona at premium? As said before; prices are set in Hong Kong. The rest of the world just looks on.

Grey dealers getting out of business? 100% unlikely. It's a free market and grey dealers were in business when you were enjoying 25% off MSRP for a 116610LN. Funny to think that people on here see the greys as culprits, when they're offering the watches at "market price".

The "true WIS" and "Im buying to wear it! Not flip it!" is a fart in a glass. No "true WIS" will keep an AD in business when they sit on stock such as an iced out pearlmaster or ugly (subjective of course) lady datejusts in 28mm. The AD is most likely to go out of business because the "true WIS" won't pick up their dead stock and Rolex wants them to sell it. Guess where all that dead stock ends up at? The same people you call "bad-men".