Nautilus v Aquanaut Bubble Question

[The Argonaut]

Hi TRF,

In responding to a question by an OP, I started thinking about the difference between the Nautilus v Aquanaut bubbles. Is there a difference?

I think the Aquanaut and Nautilus watches are qualitatively different. Just taking the last 10 years, most of the Nautilus watches have been popular and difficult to acquire. There has always been a bubble associated with most of the models, sometimes measured in months and sometimes years, but now they are unavailable to all except buyers with strong AD relationships (and even then the wait can still run to years). Thus, there has always been a premium of most of Nautilus range, and right now it seems to be at its highest.

Most of the Aquanaut range are recent and have seen their popularity increase since release. However, unlike much of the Nautilus range, outside of the the last 2.5 years, it was not difficult to acquire a 5167/5164. Go back too early to mid 2017, and they could be picked up at MSRP without huge difficulty. Also, there was no grey market for Aquanauts. Thus, their bubble is recent.

I think the current Aquanaut bubble comes straight off the back of the Nautilus range, and in smaller part, the Rolex SS bubble. I think many genuinely want an Aquanaut, as they are great watches. Their broad popularity is steadily increasing. However, I think many more want them as a Nautilus substitute. The Aquanauts don’t have the Nautilus history behind them, nor the iconic look. I know many who consider the Aquanauts completely overrated, but don't think of the Nautilus watches in the same way.

I think the Aquanaut bubble will deflate before the Nautilus. Whether the prices return to pre 2017 is another question. Regardless, I think the Nautilus is in a new space and will always now command a higher premium. The range has become something of a status symbol, and that is not likely to change. The question is how much, based on what the rest of the economy is doing. I'm not so sure about the Aquanaut retaining a premium post deflation of the bubble. It's not a status symbol, it's not iconic, and I'm not sure ever will be.

Thoughts?

Best,
TA

[Russell996]

I don’t believe there is a fundamental difference except to agree the Nautilus bubble drove the Aquanaut bubble and yes it is more iconic. The Aquanaut bubble deflating will be first as Nautilus demand decreases and buyers realise they can get a piece and some switch from wanting and getting an Aquanaut to a Nautilus. But I don’t think the Nautilus will lag far behind - these are not rare pieces contrary to what prices suggest - all models were/are produced in the 1000’s per year and with 40+ and 20+ year history’s that is quite a lot of pieces. The deciding factor will be how long greys are prepared to sit on current large stocks without reducing prices and how many buyers who are in it for the profit start to come to market - I doubt greys will be buying new stock so it will be a private sale bonanza which in turn will drive grey prices down and the previous upward price cycle suddenly reverses. Both are great pieces at MSRP, just not 3x MSRP.
Oh course, this is pure speculation and a crystal ball would be very helpful.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I don’t believe there is a fundamental difference except to agree the Nautilus bubble drove the Aquanaut bubble and yes it is more iconic. The Aquanaut bubble deflating will be first as Nautilus demand decreases and buyers realise they can get a piece and some switch from wanting and getting an Aquanaut to a Nautilus. But I don’t think the Nautilus will lag far behind - these are not rare pieces contrary to what prices suggest - all models were/are produced in the 1000’s per year and with 40+ and 20+ year history’s that is quite a lot of pieces. The deciding factor will be how long greys are prepared to sit on current large stocks without reducing prices and how many buyers who are in it for the profit start to come to market - I doubt greys will be buying new stock so it will be a private sale bonanza which in turn will drive grey prices down and the previous upward price cycle suddenly reverses. Both are great pieces at MSRP, just not 3x MSRP.
Oh course, this is pure speculation and a crystal ball would be very helpful.

Appreciate the thoughts. Very solid points.

[GB-man]

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

Yep, I, too, remember this being the case. I had sellers on 47th st. offering me white dial 5980s around $35K and blue slightly higher, list was around $44K I think. If you go back five years sellers online were asking barely over list for blue dial 5711s and slightly under for white. On 5th Avenue, in 2016, an AD had a white dial 5711a in the window for a few weeks before it sold.
The 5167/1a was available at most ADs, often discounted, but the 5167a had to be ordered and took 1-2 months to arrive, from my experience.

[dbfagan]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

“shelf turd” love that!

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

I cracked up thinking about the 5980 as a shelf turd. Brilliant expression. I should have stated blue 5711/12, as most of my watch collecting colleagues were chasing those over the years, and mostly all were successful--although some took longer than others (but none has the sorts of issues that are apparent today).

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by dbfagan

“shelf turd” love that!

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

I cracked up thinking about the 5980 as a shelf turd. Brilliant expression. I should have stated blue 5711/12, as most of my watch collecting colleagues were chasing those over the years, and mostly all were successful--although some took longer than others (but none has the sorts of issues that are apparent today).

It’s a common term used it beer trading groups

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

This ^^

No one wanted the thicker more complicated Nautiluses. The 5726/1A was a drag. The 5980 was a paperweight. Even when the 5990 was announced there were groans heard amongst ADs because it's super thick.

Only the Blue 5711/1A ever really sold decently, and even then you could get one with a short wait.

Something happened, and I can't figure out what it is. What triggered the hype?

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

This ^^

No one wanted the thicker more complicated Nautiluses. The 5726/1A was a drag. The 5980 was a paperweight. Even when the 5990 was announced there were groans heard amongst ADs because it's super thick.

Only the Blue 5711/1A ever really sold decently, and even then you could get one with a short wait.

Something happened, and I can't figure out what it is. What triggered the hype?

Instagram. The release of the 116500 which had brands subsequently trying to emulate the artificial scarcity model. Rappers some of which I’m not convinced weren’t paid product advertising.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Something happened, and I can't figure out what it is. What triggered the hype?

Hey GL, I was talking to a friend today, and he asked me this very question. What are your thoughts on what's behind the hype beyond speculators and social media?

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Instagram. The release of the 116500 which had brands subsequently trying to emulate the artificial scarcity model. Rappers some of which I’m not convinced weren’t paid product advertising.

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Hey GL, I was talking to a friend today, and he asked me this very question. What are your thoughts on what's behind the hype beyond speculators and social media?

Honestly, I do agree that it's been social media fueled. Instagram was a thing back in 2017, but not nearly as widespread as it is now, especially not in terms of people showing off luxuries.

That said, much of what I see on IG is people faking it, and it's tough to see it converting into a $30k purchase frequently enough to make this dramatic of a difference in the market values.

I still contend that the social media uptick caused speculators to start hoarding. When I see posts like these:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7yFQGCglAr/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7pAPE_AOax/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7MroVRgh8g/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7ItdCqgcRN/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B6wW64Vg5Md/

It's hard to see the market values as caused by anything else other than grey market hoarding / market cornering triggered by speculation triggered by a massive uptick in social media coverage as more and more people started using social media to show off and prop themselves up. It happens in unregulated illiquid markets. We learn this stuff in Econ 101 or something. :)

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Honestly, I do agree that it's been social media fueled. Instagram was a thing back in 2017, but not nearly as widespread as it is now, especially not in terms of people showing off luxuries.

That said, much of what I see on IG is people faking it, and it's tough to see it converting into a $30k purchase frequently enough to make this dramatic of a difference in the market values.

I still contend that the social media uptick caused speculators to start hoarding. When I see posts like these:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7yFQGCglAr/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7pAPE_AOax/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7MroVRgh8g/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7ItdCqgcRN/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B6wW64Vg5Md/

It's hard to see the market values as caused by anything else other than grey market hoarding / market cornering triggered by speculation triggered by a massive uptick in social media coverage as more and more people started using social media to show off and prop themselves up. It happens in unregulated illiquid markets. We learn this stuff in Econ 101 or something. :)

Bloody hellfire. Thanks GL, that's crazy. I don't use any social media, so don't track what the latest and greatest crazes are. Yes, it's been about 800 years since I did Econ 101, but that rings more than a few bells.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

This is 100% fact.

I can remember Nautilus references and Aquanauts alike just sitting. My AD couldn’t GIVE them away. Especially the Aquanauts. Patek customers wanted complications - and straps.

I don’t think that paradigm has shifted - I think it’s just the social media frenzy (as one reason) that has over-heightened visibility into these - up until recently more ‘reachable’ Patek references. And are driving people mad.

And the 5980-1a (blue) my first and still favorite Nautilus - was another that NO-ONE initially wanted. It was like the Nautilus step-child.

People just sway with the masses. Some of the people I’ve talked to in salons or boutiques lookin for Aquas or Nautilus references couldn’t even tell me why they wanted them.

Right now - my hunch is the Nautilus premium will stay - and the Aquanaut will become more accessible. Similar to why I think with Rolex - Subs and GMTs will become more accessible and Daytonas less accessible. Premiums are here to stay for certain references. With AP - I think we’ll see more 15500s and WAY less 202s

And dare I even say — if anyone wants to pay a premium and I’ll support it - it’s for the 15202.

Just my .02


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[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Some of the people I’ve talked to in salons or boutiques lookin for Aquas or Nautilus references couldn’t even tell me why they wanted them.

[Watch Expert]

Originally Posted by RHIII

This is 100% fact.

I can remember Nautilus references and Aquanauts alike just sitting. My AD couldn’t GIVE them away. Especially the Aquanauts. Patek customers wanted complications - and straps.

I don’t think that paradigm has shifted - I think it’s just the social media frenzy (as one reason) that has over-heightened visibility into these - up until recently more ‘reachable’ Patek references. And are driving people mad.

And the 5980-1a (blue) my first and still favorite Nautilus - was another that NO-ONE initially wanted. It was like the Nautilus step-child.

People just sway with the masses. Some of the people I’ve talked to in salons or boutiques lookin for Aquas or Nautilus references couldn’t even tell me why they wanted them.

Right now - my hunch is the Nautilus premium will stay - and the Aquanaut will become more accessible. Similar to why I think with Rolex - Subs and GMTs will become more accessible and Daytonas less accessible. Premiums are here to stay for certain references. With AP - I think we’ll see more 15500s and WAY less 202s

And dare I even say — if anyone wants to pay a premium and I’ll support it - it’s for the 15202.

Just my .02


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The watch trend

Pocket watch

Pocket watch to mechanical dress wrist watch

Mechanical dress watch trend shifts to thin quartz movement

Luxury Quartz movement again changed to luxury steel sport mechanical watch

The Nautilus and AP Royal Oak very successful in luxury steel mechanical wrist watch. Several other brands followed but they come and goes quickly; the Piaget, Vacheron Overseas. Now Lange Odysseus and I expect more traditional dress wrist watch brand think the same.

If Patek so successful in Nautilus and Aquanaut, and AP so successful in Royal Oak, why not they follow the waves; walk on the same path to get some slice of the cakes rather than waiting for trend to change?

I can say the size of diameter and thickness of the wrist watch determines whether steel sport wrists watch successful or fail.
Panerai Hublot Blancpain Omega steel complicated sport watches failed , why? One reason is the diameter over 42mm looks ugly on most wrist.

Patek and AP most successful steel sport watches mostly size around 38-40 mm.
AP Royal Oak offshore size above 42mm also did not go as well as simple non complication Royal Oak.

Other than the diameter will be design of bracelets; bracelet has to have shape, preferably shape of a snake. The bracelet width towards the lug say 35mm and towards the bracelet it curves down to say 12mm; Not just straight simple shape bracelet like Omega Man on the moon or most Japanese Seiko bracelet.

Look at the shape and curves of Rolex oyster shape; Royal Oak bracelet and Nautilus steel bracelet curves and looks beautiful.
Look at Aquanaut steel bracelet or Piaget or Omega steel bracelet it looks ugly because it is straight not curves .

Secondly the bracelet need design or pattern that shines and produce glitter ray of light; I think Rolex President bracelet is the best example for this. The next one that is very eye catching is Royal Oak bracelet. When you wear the watch under the sun, every body within 5 meters know you are wearing luxury time pieces.

One can argue Richard Mille produce 50mm wrist watch and seems successful; yes it does; however Richard Mille design is very different from other watches. Look at the case is so thick that allow movement fit into curves round case and the case fit in normal wrist well despite 50mm in size and the dial is transparent which make the watch looks elegant not covering your wrist, the transparent dial and curved “ bent” watch case; makes Richard Mille even though size 50 mm do not looks ugly as the other huge looking time pieces like Hublot or Panerai.

But still I believe brand like IWC or Omega will soon make something to challenge this successful brand.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

The watch trend

Pocket watch

Pocket watch to mechanical dress wrist watch

Mechanical dress watch trend shifts to thin quartz movement

Luxury Quartz movement again changed to luxury steel sport mechanical watch

The Nautilus and AP Royal Oak very successful in luxury steel mechanical wrist watch. Several other brands followed but they come and goes quickly; the Piaget, Vacheron Overseas. Now Lange Odysseus and I expect more traditional dress wrist watch brand think the same.

If Patek so successful in Nautilus and Aquanaut, and AP so successful in Royal Oak, why not they follow the waves; walk on the same path to get some slice of the cakes rather than waiting for trend to change?

I can say the size of diameter and thickness of the wrist watch determines whether steel sport wrists watch successful or fail.
Panerai Hublot Blancpain Omega steel complicated sport watches failed , why? One reason is the diameter over 42mm looks ugly on most wrist.

Patek and AP most successful steel sport watches mostly size around 38-40 mm.
AP Royal Oak offshore size above 42mm also did not go as well as simple non complication Royal Oak.

Other than the diameter will be design of bracelets; bracelet has to have shape, preferably shape of a snake. The bracelet width towards the lug say 35mm and towards the bracelet it curves down to say 12mm; Not just straight simple shape bracelet like Omega Man on the moon or most Japanese Seiko bracelet.

Look at the shape and curves of Rolex oyster shape; Royal Oak bracelet and Nautilus steel bracelet curves and looks beautiful.
Look at Aquanaut steel bracelet or Piaget or Omega steel bracelet it looks ugly because it is straight not curves .

Secondly the bracelet need design or pattern that shines and produce glitter ray of light; I think Rolex President bracelet is the best example for this. The next one that is very eye catching is Royal Oak bracelet. When you wear the watch under the sun, every body within 5 meters know you are wearing luxury time pieces.

One can argue Richard Mille produce 50mm wrist watch and seems successful; yes it does; however Richard Mille design is very different from other watches. Look at the case is so thick that allow movement fit into curves round case and the case fit in normal wrist well despite 50mm in size and the dial is transparent which make the watch looks elegant not covering your wrist, the transparent dial and curved “ bent” watch case; makes Richard Mille even though size 50 mm do not looks ugly as the other huge looking time pieces like Hublot or Panerai.

But still I believe brand like IWC or Omega will soon make something to challenge this successful brand.

Honestly - can’t say that I disagree.

I think you are 100% right regarding the size piece. While (some) people keep asking for larger pieces they are completely missing the paradigm (going back to the 37mm-40mm range)

AP releasing the 38mm ROC was genius in my mind. If SIHH wasn’t so close - and I wasn’t hoping for a completely integrated, fly back Chrono - I’d have one already!!!!




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[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Some of the people I’ve talked to in salons or boutiques lookin for Aquas or Nautilus references couldn’t even tell me why they wanted them.

Says it all really.

Originally Posted by RHIII

Right now - my hunch is the Nautilus premium will stay - and the Aquanaut will become more accessible. Similar to why I think with Rolex - Subs and GMTs will become more accessible and Daytonas less accessible. Premiums are here to stay for certain references.

Totally agree. I genuinely think the Naut has achieved a social pedigree for many, perhaps akin to a Birkin handbag (which I wouldn't recognize if you hit me with one.). Nautilus watches look like nothing else, and because they can be readily identified, they immediately confer status. This is why I think the Nautilus bubble is qualitatively different. This could also be said of any RO, or Rolex because of the Cyclops (or Panda Daytona only). The Aquanaut is not distinctive, and could be taken for many other watches. If you are looking to show status, I don't think an Aquanaut does it. Status is not something you explain; it just is.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Says it all really.







Totally agree. I genuinely think the Naut has achieved a social pedigree for many, perhaps akin to a Birkin handbag (which I wouldn't recognize if you hit me with one.). Nautilus watches look like nothing else, and because they can be readily identified, they immediately confer status. This is why I think the Nautilus bubble is qualitatively different. This could also be said of any RO, or Rolex because of the Cyclops (or Panda Daytona only). The Aquanaut is not distinctive, and could be taken for many other watches. If you are looking to show status, I don't think an Aquanaut does it. Status is not something you explain; it just is.

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[Vetracer]

In the same way that Rolex fans tend to accumulate multiple watches in the Rolex catalogue, Patek Philippe fans do the same albeit with a significant increase in financial outlay. The fact that someone buys an Aquanaut doesn’t mean they either couldn’t afford or couldn’t get a Nautilus.

With regards to their popularity, the Aquanaut has always been admired in my books. It was always going to be deemed the little brother to the Nautilus but if you own both, you’ll know how very different the watches are despite the similar shaped bezel.

Paul McCartney has been wearing his 5165A for many, many years. I’m sure he can afford any Nautilus he wants.

[pam66]

i totally agree that all those are watches produced in large numbers and the word "rare" cannot be attached to them. the 5711A is certainly "iconic" inasmuch it it associated to what was considered a revolution in watch design.
the aquanauts are just derivatives, as wearable they might be.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by pam66

i totally agree that all those are watches produced in large numbers and the word "rare" cannot be attached to them. the 5711A is certainly "iconic" inasmuch it it associated to what was considered a revolution in watch design. the aquanauts are just derivatives, as wearable they might be.

Couldn't agree more. It a constant surprise that so many are willing to countenance paying 3 x MSRP for a current production SS piece.

[Watch Expert]

Give me a reason why people would buy patek sport watch at premium today.
How can there be a hype when there is no logical reason to buy one and I see that demand is near zero.

[soundserious]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

Give me a reason why people would buy patek sport watch at premium today.
How can there be a hype when there is no logical reason to buy one and I see that demand is near zero.

Agree. Buy a VC at discount. Or the GP one. Or the Lange thing. Or an Apple Watch.

[Watch Expert]

My advise is if you like a time piece be patient; wait for a few months. Things will be different in 2-3 months.

You can buy things that you like, at AD pay retail new or buy used and get some discount.

This watch hype , used price over retail (current model still in production like hundreds each month ) is not sustainable; you need continuous supply multiple of morons with thick pockets which I don’t think there is any now.
Do not buy at grey dealers and pay huge crazy premium you will be badly burnt.

For example if the AD sells a time piece new at $30,000 ; the used market logically should be $25,000 or less. If the used market is $50,000 then you can smell fish. Why the AD don’t produce more and let grey dealers pocket $20,000.
The AD need to pay rents wages etc ; why AD let grey dealers earn $20,000? Why not AD produce more and have higher sales volume? To create hype as you want something you can’t get. Well that may be true for a while; it may be true for certain rare model has been discontinued ( watch maker are dead) like Patek 2499 or Rolex Daytona Paul Newman; but not for time piece that are still in artificially limited production (the watch maker still alive) and it won’t go forever.
You will be badly burnt.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

My advise is if you like a time piece be patient; wait for a few months. Things will be different in 2-3 months.

You can buy things that you like, at AD pay retail new or buy used and get some discount.

This watch hype , used price over retail (current model still in production like hundreds each month ) is not sustainable; you need continuous supply multiple of morons with thick pockets which I don’t think there is any now.
Do not buy at grey dealers and pay huge crazy premium you will be badly burnt.

For example if the AD sells a time piece new at $30,000 ; the used market logically should be $25,000 or less. If the used market is $50,000 then you can smell fish. Why the AD don’t produce more and let grey dealers pocket $20,000. The AD need to pay rents wages etc ; why AD let grey dealers earn $20,000? Why not AD produce more and have higher sales volume? To create hype as you want something you can’t get. Well that may be true for a while; it may be true for certain rare model has been discontinued ( watch maker are dead) like Patek 2499 or Rolex Daytona Paul Newman; but not for time piece that are still in artificially limited production (the watch maker still alive) and it won’t go forever. You will be badly burnt.

"Multiple morons." Brilliant. Fear not. My target is this year. If it happens great; if it doesn't, well there's nothing I can do and I'll keep in the hunt for 2021. I'm in no rush. I was just curious as to whether TRFers thought there was any bubble differences.

[The Argonaut]

We've had "shelf turds" and "multiple morons" so far. Some classic expressions.

[jon_jon]

I remember a few months after the 5980/1A was discontinued, there was an AD that had 3 of them on their window display (3 different dial colors).

I purchased my first and only Nautilus 10+ years ago during "the recession" at quite a discount.

There is definitely a Nautilus bubble. We will see how long it will last.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

I remember a few months after the 5980/1A was discontinued, there was an AD that had 3 of them on their window display (3 different dial colors).

Yup!

My goodness. That was quite an entertaining time, in retrospect.

I, too, once saw an AD with two 5980/1A's in their window. If I recall the conversation correctly, I think they sat for a good 6+ months before I actually came by.

[Watch Expert]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

We've had "shelf turds" and "multiple morons" so far. Some classic expressions.

Well 50% of the watch idiot ( in year 2015-2020 the “shelf turds" and "multiple morons" located mainly in HK and China ) are now under travel ban; and also 80% of the regular suppliers for these “shelf turds" and "multiple morons" they are the grey dealers syndicate located in HK ; which is now also technically under travel ban over corona virus.
Not long ago in the year 2010-2015 “shelf turds" and "multiple morons" were from Russia that paid hype price for Frank Muller and Ulysses Nardin. Russia experienced crisis over oil price drop in 2014.

the 1995-2000 “shelf turds" and "multiple morons" were the Japanese; but Japanese not so much into watches; they buy Air Jordan ; at that time Air Jordan was sold for 10x over retail. People in Japan willing to travel 10 hours by plane just to buy Air Jordan and return to Tokyo. And when Air Jordan arrives in store in Los Angeles within 2 hours it’s gone. Air Jordan shoe in 1990s was like the Rolex today. Japan has had crisis in 1997 and the boom was over.

In 2020; who knows who will be the next prey. I don’t see it’s going to be anything. I do see some grey dealers in HK queueing for face mask; face mask price is in a temporary hype now. I heard it’s is selling 5x or 10x over retail in Hong Kong and Singapore.
When the market price of goods that are still in production; and value over retail ; that is just very fishy.
The used market should be between 20% to 30% less than retail. Otherwise some one somewhere is taking big risk playing with the price to suck up idiots with thick pockets made of easy money.