Increase in sub production?

[tuffode]

I feel like I have been seeing a lot of people getting the new Sub both on this forum, as well as on Reddit. I don't know if it's just more posts since it is a new model, or if there are actually more watches being made. Maybe the Sub has been harder to get because they had been winding down production on the previous model. Makes me wonder. I'm not sure, just something I've been thinking about.

[ArtNouveau]

I believe they were ramping up production earlier this year before Basel was cancelled. Tgis more inventory available at introduction. In the big picture I think Submariner numbers will stay about the same.

[Rashid.bk]

The anxiety and desperation has been making TRF members speculate about production either ramping up or down based on whatever situation seems to fit their logic pattern over the last three years.
And no matter what theory is presented, we wind up at the same conclusion. Not enough watches for the amount of people that want it and somehow grey dealers get their hands on a lot of stock.

As for posts, well this is the premiere world wide Rolex forum. In general when anyone that has access to social media buys a Rolex, they come here to tell you about it, so imo this is where you'll see the action. It doesn't represent Rolex production output.

[vh2k]

It’s a textbook example of perceived scarcity. The ADs have watches. They are in the back so you have to ask for them. If they offer you one, you feel special. ADs can justify charging MSRP, the customer feels happy to pay it and privileged to have gotten a “hard-to-get” item, and Rolex brand equity goes up. Everybody gets what they want.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by vh2k

It’s a textbook example of perceived scarcity. The ADs have watches. They are in the back so you have to ask for them. If they offer you one, you feel special. ADs can justify charging MSRP, the customer feels happy to pay it and privileged to have gotten a “hard-to-get” item, and Rolex brand equity goes up. Everybody gets what they want.

The logical part of my brain knows this but it's clearly past the point of no return if we're buying $10K+ watches that aren't solid gold.

[tuffode]

Originally Posted by EEpro

The logical part of my brain knows this but it's clearly past the point of no return if we're buying $10K+ watches that aren't solid gold.

Yeah, I’ve only been watching the Rolex market for 2 years, but prices seem to be reaching a tip, but then they continue to go up..

[tng11]

I think it's about the same as before.

Any AD that tells you they get a few black Subs a year is Pinocchio and is their polite way of telling you to get lost.

My primary AD, a midsize one told me their allocation is 50+ black Subs a year. Typically that means a ND/Date each weekly shipment. Sometimes they don't get one in their weekly shipment and then one shipment may have a few. Another small AD told me their allocation is about 24-30 black Subs a year.

Anecdotally all the ADs I deal with have received one LV/LN/ND and TTs in each weekly shipment since launch.

[MikeHendrick1978]

Originally Posted by tng11

I think it's about the same as before.

Any AD that tells you they get a few black Subs a year is Pinocchio and is their polite way of telling you to get lost.

My primary AD, a midsize one told me their allocation is 50+ black Subs a year. Typically that means a ND/Date each weekly shipment. Sometimes they don't get one in their weekly shipment and then one shipment may have a few. Another small AD told me their allocation is about 24-30 black Subs a year.

Anecdotally all the ADs I deal with have received one LV/LN/ND and TTs in each weekly shipment since launch.

Where in Canada is this? Must be a major city like Toronto or Montreal or Vancouver....I don't think my dealer in Calgary gets that many....

[dmash]

Originally Posted by tng11

I think it's about the same as before.

Any AD that tells you they get a few black Subs a year is Pinocchio and is their polite way of telling you to get lost.

My primary AD, a midsize one told me their allocation is 50+ black Subs a year. Typically that means a ND/Date each weekly shipment. Sometimes they don't get one in their weekly shipment and then one shipment may have a few. Another small AD told me their allocation is about 24-30 black Subs a year.

Anecdotally all the ADs I deal with have received one LV/LN/ND and TTs in each weekly shipment since launch.

Yup, it’s honestly gotten tiresome trying to tell people this who continue to deny their ADs just aren’t honest.

A Submariner never has and never will be an ‘acquisition’ piece. It’s completely wild anybody would think of paying more than a 10-15% markup on a basic black one, and that’s purely for the convenience of perhaps not waiting a few months. Somebody tried to argue with me in the ‘Would you pay 15k for a Submariner’ thread, that’s everywhere is multiple years list for a Sub. The internet/some ADs really do have a lot of people buying whatever they spew. Daytona/Pepsi/Blue SkyD hype is pretty real, some ADs really do get very very limited allocation of these. But the Submariner and Explorers? People are getting completely gamed and they’re feeding the hype train believing this nonsense. This only applies to US by the way, UK and Aus are in a different universe lol.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yup, it’s honestly gotten tiresome trying to tell people this who continue to deny their ADs just aren’t honest.

A Submariner never has and never will be an ‘acquisition’ piece. It’s completely wild anybody would think of paying more than a 10-15% markup on a basic black one, and that’s purely for the convenience of perhaps not waiting a few months. Somebody tried to argue with me in the ‘Would you pay 15k for a Submariner’ thread, that’s everywhere is multiple years list for a Sub. The internet/some ADs really do have a lot of people buying whatever they spew. Daytona/Pepsi/Blue SkyD hype is pretty real, some ADs really do get very very limited allocation of these. But the Submariner and Explorers? People are getting completely gamed and they’re feeding the hype train believing this nonsense. This only applies to US by the way, UK and Aus are in a different universe lol.

Agreed.

My ADs also try to make it fair and not concentrate all the allocation pieces to the hands of just a few clients. They will consider if they've already delivered a BLRO to you, they might make you wait longer for a Daytona. They do deliver Subs and GMTs to first timers they've screened, and their official position is that there's no "list" by itself. I think that's the right way to build long term relationships and not have angry/frustrated clients all around. Others do play the "hide the Salami" game no doubt to fuel sales for other stuff.

[mykii]

Originally Posted by tng11

I think it's about the same as before.

Any AD that tells you they get a few black Subs a year is Pinocchio and is their polite way of telling you to get lost.

My primary AD, a midsize one told me their allocation is 50+ black Subs a year. Typically that means a ND/Date each weekly shipment. Sometimes they don't get one in their weekly shipment and then one shipment may have a few. Another small AD told me their allocation is about 24-30 black Subs a year.

Anecdotally all the ADs I deal with have received one LV/LN/ND and TTs in each weekly shipment since launch.

This is completely not what my very large AD has communicated, especially re LVs (well, the hulk, anyway). Your "midsize" AD sounds like a super place to shop!

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by tng11

I think it's about the same as before.

Any AD that tells you they get a few black Subs a year is Pinocchio and is their polite way of telling you to get lost.

My primary AD, a midsize one told me their allocation is 50+ black Subs a year. Typically that means a ND/Date each weekly shipment. Sometimes they don't get one in their weekly shipment and then one shipment may have a few. Another small AD told me their allocation is about 24-30 black Subs a year.

Anecdotally all the ADs I deal with have received one LV/LN/ND and TTs in each weekly shipment since launch.

I think this sounds reasonable. From my personal experience the boutiques also get more than ADs.

[Tenebris Equum]

The Hour Glass Sydney gets 3 steel models weekly, i have been told by ex employee. He loves the watches but hates the AD management and who they feed.

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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Tenebris Equum

The Hour Glass Sydney gets 3 steel models weekly, i have been told by ex employee. He loves the watches but hates the AD management and who they feed.

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That’s actually eye opening if it’s a fact. I really thought Aus was getting way less stock than other locations.

[Tenebris Equum]

Originally Posted by dmash

That’s actually eye opening if it’s a fact. I really thought Aus was getting way less stock than other locations.

Stock is not the issue, the AD's feed the handful of "Ultra VIP" clients they have. These guys gift heavy and dine the manager there like no tomorrow. Btw the ex employee is a good mate of mine, he worked at The Hour Glass for about a year.



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[Oxfordian]

It would be logical to assume that a big city dealership is going to get more watches per week/month/year than an AD in a small town, this will be reflective of customer flow.

Therefore when quoting figures per AD some averaging out needs to take place otherwise there will be more watches produced than buyers. If only that were true.

[waterman1]

From browsing this forum and comparing this new release to say the sd43 in 2017, there does seem to be a different feel now. I seem to remember there was a period of about 30 to 60 days before the sd43 was showing up in certain countries. When they did show up they were few and far between. Like a handful. I’m not sure if this indicates more watches are available today in general or if there has been a shift in marketing strategy.

[McinRolex]

Good to see many incoming threads (relatively).
And Chrono24 listings bumped from high low 80s to low 100s now. (For 126610)

Price will eventually come down as more and more stocks are released to either collectors or flippers (including gray dealers).

[southcarolina1801]

Even if a larger AD is getting 50 Subs a year, I’ve had two separate AD’s (in different cities) tell me they get 100-150 phone calls a week asking for a Sub. The demand is 100% real.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by southcarolina1801

Even if a larger AD is getting 50 Subs a year, I’ve had two separate AD’s (in different cities) tell me they get 100-150 phone calls a week asking for a Sub. The demand is 100% real.

Phone calls are unqualified sales leads. The SA may follow up to schedule an appointment. If the lead doesn’t pass the vetting and background checks... the piece of paper with your name scribbled on it is worthless. It doesn’t get added to “the list.” It goes in the trash.

[southcarolina1801]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Phone calls are unqualified sales leads. The SA may follow up to schedule an appointment. If the lead doesn’t pass the vetting and background checks... the piece of paper with your name scribbled on it is worthless. It doesn’t get added to “the list.” It goes in the trash.

Regardless, if an AD is getting 500 calls a month about a watch they only get 4-5 a month in, that’s a tremendous differential

[JRell]

I think you are just seeing an sample of people that have solid contacts with their AD. Not many are just walking in and getting them.