Value vs Total Cost: Precious Metal or Hyped Steel?

[YoungPrezzy]

No doubt this has been something that has been discussed before but I thought maybe Id but a twist on it.

Im currently looking for my next Rolex but frankly I am a bit conflicted as many of us are these days. Up until 2018 I was fortunate enough to get my hands on pretty much whatever I wanted from Rolex and as we all know, those days are over.

I really enjoy the steel blue sky dweller but the price is around 25K in unworn condition a solid 10k over the sticker price.

For an additional 10K I would be in the realm of a full Solid Gold Sub or even a Daytona. (watches I equally enjoy) Granted these are slightly over budget by about 5-7k depending on the model and condition.

My Grandfather always said to me "spending isnt saving" so I am trying to apply that to this purchase. On one hand id be saving 10k by buying the Steel Sky Dweller but on the other hand im over paying by a grotesque amount. The biggest Value is easily the precious gold models again im spending more just to save from having to spend the premium on the Dweller.

Perhaps its just the way you look at things like this but in terms of Value to total cost, is there a clear cut winner? Is this where you bite the bullet and go two tone?

[drfrankenstein]

SS prices are due to hype and/or demand

PM prices have more certainty in the long run but are very high right now

[Tools]

It's a luxury piece of jewelry.. don't dwell on it too much.

[YoungPrezzy]

Originally Posted by Tools

It's a luxury piece of jewelry.. don't dwell on it too much.

I see what you did there. ;-)

[fabs82]

Go for whichever you like best
What you paid will be forgotten in the long haul
But my .02 would be to go with a solid gold piece instead of overpaying for steel due to popularity in gray market
No wrong answer either way though!!

[Seddyspaghetti]

Technically you're not really overpaying for the sky dweller at grey because to obtain it at retail price you would also spend a grotesque amount of money buying other pieces just to earn the consideration of being able to purchase one at retail. And it's not even guaranteed. (generally speaking)

I say buy what you want/are able to. Can't go wrong with either.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Technically you're not really overpaying for the sky dweller at grey because to obtain it at retail price you would also spend a grotesque amount of money buying other pieces just to earn the consideration of being able to purchase one at retail. And it's not even guaranteed. (generally speaking)

I say buy what you want/are able to. Can't go wrong with either.

This is assuming said market lasts. Rolex didn’t have a single price increase for 8 years until the most recent, people who are paying double MSRP for steel watches right now could be at a massive deficit from a value perspective for the upcoming 10+ years. This is just if watch market settles back to MSRP, not even crashing. Everybody is pushing grey if you can’t wait, but no way that would settle nicely in my stomach to lose $10k on a piece because it’s trading at MSRP again.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Originally Posted by dmash

This is assuming said market lasts. Rolex didn’t have a single price increase for 8 years until the most recent, people who are paying double MSRP for steel watches right now could be at a massive deficit from a value perspective for the upcoming 10+ years. This is just if watch market settles back to MSRP, not even crashing. Everybody is pushing grey if you can’t wait, but no way that would settle nicely in my stomach to lose $10k on a piece because it’s trading at MSRP again.

You're not wrong. But to be fair, at one point PMs were attainable between 20-30k (WG BLRO) Meaning if SS goes down, so does PM

God, i wish SS prices do go back down to MSRP or below....

[darius359]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

God, i wish SS prices do go back down to MSRP or below....

If you can wait until after covid19 passes us and the supply chain goes back to normal, pricing will likely normalize. Don't forget, every time Rolex announces anything new, prices take an immediate jump into the stratosphere. Maybe prices will stabilize early in the new year but I'm betting it will be after covid.

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[dpt.calvin]

Originally Posted by darius359

If you can wait until after covid19 passes us and the supply chain goes back to normal, pricing will likely normalize. Don't forget, every time Rolex announces anything new, prices take an immediate jump into the stratosphere. Maybe prices will stabilize early in the new year but I'm betting it will be after covid.

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Are you suggesting the current state of the Rolex climate started with COVID-19 and will thus end with COVID-19?

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

You're not wrong. But to be fair, at one point PMs were attainable between 20-30k (WG BLRO) Meaning if SS goes down, so does PM

God, i wish SS prices do go back down to MSRP or below....

In my opinion...........it's so blatantly obvious it will. I don't know why still in 2020 (and the abundance of knowledge we have online) so many still adopt sheep mentality and are brainwashed into thinking 'this market is different'. This isn't different, no market ever has been different and every market ALWAYS comes back down. Especially something super hyped which is trading at 100%+ higher than a mere couple years ago.

People will move on, it won't be as cool on IG, or something new comes out. We currently just have 1. FOMO and 2. guys too impatient and are still currently feeding the greys.

2015- Swiss groups were starting to freak out that the entire business model is slowly dying
2020- Curbed supply/demand increased, super hot market
2025- Retest 2015 lows?

[holdingon]

Have you considered a TT Bluesy or GMT Rootbeer? More likely to find at the AD and better buy than the hyped SS models.

[Bigblu10]

25K is insanity for a SS Rolex, considering I paid that much for my BNIB YG Sub in 2017.
Of course, prices for all metals have gone through the roof in the last few years.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

25K is insanity for a SS Rolex, considering I paid that much for my BNIB YG Sub in 2017.
Of course, prices for all metals have gone through the roof in the last few years.

Earlier this year I was considering a blue SkyD vs YG Daytona Newman.

I was like hmm...$12k Over retail vs $12k under retail...for the Daytona.

Daytona it was!

[MRPWRPATX21]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

25K is insanity for a SS Rolex, considering I paid that much for my BNIB YG Sub in 2017.
Of course, prices for all metals have gone through the roof in the last few years.

I'm three 5-digits into 2020 for under $20k, and I don't really have to worry about the market correcting...if anything I've got upside. I really want a ceramic white dial Daytona...but I'd like to also not be $5-10k upside down in a few years (even though I wouldn't be buying it to sell)...give me the start of a collection than a keeping up with the Jones piece at these prices any day, but I digress.

That said, if the "market" is determined by an open exchange of supply freely auctioned to the highest bidder, and those numbers consistently suggest that a SS Blue Dial Sky Dweller is trading for $25k, then that is the true "value" of the watch- what Rolex charges as MSRP is (theoretically) irrelevant, as it wouldn't change what they gray watches trade at. So it's hard to say that spending "market" price on a gray watch is "grotesquely" over paying. Nor does it mean that the "market" will always be $25k...but there's also no guarantee it would ever be any lower.

Regarding SS vs. PM in terms of "value": there is a simple mathematical answer to explain some portion of the variance (i.e., variance in input costs via metal prices), with the left being some proportion of a.) scarcity and b.) emotional surcharge that Rolex builds into PM pieces. I think OP wants to be able to quantitatively suss-out exactly what the a + b value is, then compare it to the mark-up over MSRP for the SS to attempt to arrive at which is the best "value", but this is a fool's errand because the notion of SS MSRP is completely irrelevant- if they charged $1,000/$5,000/7,500 for the SD, but it sold gray for $25k, would you feel even more put-off by the gray price? Or viewed another way, would you feel better about paying the $25k if the AD charged you $17,500 to walk out of a shop with it? You're still paying $25k for a stainless steel watch, and when you break down all of the components (there's no assumption that even the Rolex movement carries some inherent value into the future as some suppose in these hypotheticals) you're left with a few hundred $ for the SS, but a few thousand for a PM. Of course, this is not how any watch purchase should be made, as it completely ignores the emotional component which undeniably makes up a big chunk of any Rolex purchase.

I think it's less complicated than you are making it...

1. Do you have the money to spend on the PM piece, or are you stretching yourself beyond a limit you are comfortable with? If No, then skip to 2. If Yes, then:
1a. Do you like the PM piece better than the SS SD to the tune of a new Sub? Yes is a perfectly acceptable answer, but maybe viewing it in terms of a similar watch or "opportunity cost" type of angle could help. If Yes, then buy PM piece of choice. If no, then proceed to 2.
2. Do you like the SS SD for $25k? Forget current MSRP...assuming you've got a 6-digit GMT and Sub in your collection that you bought at/near MSRP a few years back, do you think you roughly like it the same as having both of these? If No, then proceed to 3. If Yes, buy gray SS SD.
3. Add name to theoretical wait list for SS SD

[LeftHookLacey]

If you want to invest, buy an ETF.

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by LeftHookLacey

If you want to invest, buy an ETF.

Is that investing, or, gambling?

[Speedbird-1]

The price of Platinum 'jewellery' is hyped.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

Is that investing, or, gambling?

lol the way the stock market is turning out, wed just as well call it a casino in current time

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by LeftHookLacey

If you want to invest, buy an ETF.

Wait, you didn't get the invite to the Rolex ETF?

But seriously, one can buy stock in WOS for something like that.

More seriously, steel is the new gold, and I think the durability long term has shown that in auctions on average (pre-hype)

[HogwldFLTR]

Bought a Platona for $10K below msrp almost two years ago from an AD, bought a 116500 for below $16K almost two and a half years ago from a grey dealer. A good deal is a good deal regardless of the metal. I'll go where the deal is good as opposed to choosing a metal.

[4 Aussies]

Originally Posted by HogwldFLTR

Bought a Platona for $10K below msrp almost two years ago from an AD, bought a 116500 for below $16K almost two and a half years ago from a grey dealer. A good deal is a good deal regardless of the metal. I'll go where the deal is good as opposed to choosing a metal.

Wise words!!

[HippoPAPAmus]

Originally Posted by HogwldFLTR

Bought a Platona for $10K below msrp almost two years ago from an AD, bought a 116500 for below $16K almost two and a half years ago from a grey dealer. A good deal is a good deal regardless of the metal. I'll go where the deal is good as opposed to choosing a metal.

This


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[Rado63]

Originally Posted by YoungPrezzy

No doubt this has been something that has been discussed before but I thought maybe Id but a twist on it.

Im currently looking for my next Rolex but frankly I am a bit conflicted as many of us are these days. Up until 2018 I was fortunate enough to get my hands on pretty much whatever I wanted from Rolex and as we all know, those days are over.

I really enjoy the steel blue sky dweller but the price is around 25K in unworn condition a solid 10k over the sticker price.

For an additional 10K I would be in the realm of a full Solid Gold Sub or even a Daytona. (watches I equally enjoy) Granted these are slightly over budget by about 5-7k depending on the model and condition.

My Grandfather always said to me "spending isnt saving" so I am trying to apply that to this purchase. On one hand id be saving 10k by buying the Steel Sky Dweller but on the other hand im over paying by a grotesque amount. The biggest Value is easily the precious gold models again im spending more just to save from having to spend the premium on the Dweller.

Perhaps its just the way you look at things like this but in terms of Value to total cost, is there a clear cut winner? Is this where you bite the bullet and go two tone?

Your Grand Dad said "spending isn't saving" What he means is that there is a difference between what you need and what you want. If you want a SD Blue dial then you know the secondary market price and until the world economy skips a few beats the watch isn't going to be at a discount and without purchase history, not likely you will buy one at retail. You are right about secondary market Precious Metal pieces sell closer to MSRP for most models, but that seems to be changing. From a different perspective the Steel sports appreciate more. I know it's a premium but I would take the Steel v PM. Buying TT definitely gives you more opportunity to buy from AD at at retail.

[N&M]

Originally Posted by YoungPrezzy

No doubt this has been something that has been discussed before but I thought maybe Id but a twist on it.

Im currently looking for my next Rolex but frankly I am a bit conflicted as many of us are these days. Up until 2018 I was fortunate enough to get my hands on pretty much whatever I wanted from Rolex and as we all know, those days are over.

I really enjoy the steel blue sky dweller but the price is around 25K in unworn condition a solid 10k over the sticker price.

For an additional 10K I would be in the realm of a full Solid Gold Sub or even a Daytona. (watches I equally enjoy) Granted these are slightly over budget by about 5-7k depending on the model and condition.

My Grandfather always said to me "spending isnt saving" so I am trying to apply that to this purchase. On one hand id be saving 10k by buying the Steel Sky Dweller but on the other hand im over paying by a grotesque amount. The biggest Value is easily the precious gold models again im spending more just to save from having to spend the premium on the Dweller.

Perhaps its just the way you look at things like this but in terms of Value to total cost, is there a clear cut winner? Is this where you bite the bullet and go two tone?

If you have already SS watch, then go to PM. My daily watch is WG Daytona. No problems with PM watch, but for some cases I need my Hulk. I’m talking about mountain skiing, swimming in the sea, etc.
But on other side now prices are good for bicolour Rolexes. If you want to save some money - it’s a good idea

[Onikage]

Notice no one thinks Smartwatches are the future anymore. Shame. I was planning on buying a few of those old grandpa's windy up mechanical ticky tock ones for cheap. Damn.

[grimps]

Ive had a quick look on Chrono 24 and have not seen one of the new gold Subs for sale yet , If you can get your hands on one at retail I feel it'll hold its price very well and probably go up a lot in the current climate

[Goin2drt]

I can’t help. I buy what I like and wear them. I don’t treat Rolex or any watch as an investment or care what the values do.

[Chester01]

My advice to many here complaining is look I get it. I remember walking into AD’s in the 90’s and having my pick. But there are many great brands, GS, omega, iwc, some good deals to be had on Rolex 5 digit models. Move on from the I need the latest and greatest Rolex offering. The navitimer and 321 speedmasters (reissue and vintage) can be had for what a Daytona costs, look better and are far more significant watches historically. The new iwc Portuguese has an inhouse movement and is a classic watch.

[brandrea]

My focus would be on buying the watch you want to wear and enjoy. If it’s The SS reference and you have the funds go gray or wait for the AD.