Is the shortage real or artificially created ?

[Burlington]

I read a post on here earlier talking about the shortage of steel sport models being intentionally induced, rather than as a consequence of higher demand and lower productivity.

It’s not like manufacturing these types of things can be increased overnight, and once invested it will need to payback over many years.

On top, demand is higher than ever and Covid may well have had a negative effect on production speed. Plus Rolex doesn’t seem to like the consequences of the shortage with flipping etc. (Of course though strong secondary is desirable, but maybe not 2xretail.

So find it hard to imagine they have done all this by choice and design

[Jimmy66]

My AD told me that Rolex will soon be expanding their facilities to produce more watches.

Take that with the usual grain of salt that should accompany all "my AD told me" statements.

[Lemonvr6]

Man if there were only other threads on this

[Binky1]

Originally Posted by Lemonvr6

Man if there were only other threads on this

This

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Lemonvr6

Man if there were only other threads on this

Does TRF have that newfangled technology called a Search Engine? You know, so the same topic does not get posting time and time again?

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Does TRF have that newfangled technology called a Search Engine? You know, so the same topic does not get posting time and time again?

This!


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[teck21]

Originally Posted by fskywalker

This!


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I enjoy these topics very much and am always happy to see a new one, sometimes new ideas and insights.

I love that new ones get created frequently. It’s very telling.


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[FTX I]

Truth is no one knows my friend. Only speculation so far.

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by FTX I

Truth is no one knows my friend. Only speculation so far.

I always think of it with a manufacturing hat on, and just what it might take to ramp up production. On top of the capital investment, also workforce planning and training + rescheduling shift patterns etc. Discussions with local unions etc. not a flick the switch overnight decision for sure.

Then throw the business economics into it, and why fill more production capacity with lower margined stainless pieces than PM (seeing as how both models move fast anyway)

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by Burlington

I always think of it with a manufacturing hat on, and just what it might take to ramp up production. On top of the capital investment, also workforce planning and training + rescheduling shift patterns etc. Discussions with local unions etc. not a flick the switch overnight decision for sure.

Then throw the business economics into it, and why fill more production capacity with lower margined stainless pieces than PM (seeing as how both models move fast anyway)

I have a manufacturing hat, too.
At the moment, it’s really hard to ramp up production. It’s always a challenge. More so, now. Yes, it takes many years to do what Rolex would have to do. Maybe they are already started; maybe not. We don’t know.

The labor shortage due to current environment is hard to deal with, whether that’s the companies installing new production lines and equipment for Rolex, or whether it’s the in house labor, itself, needed by Rolex to build a Rolex. Labor must be trained, too.

Guess what happens when you add unskilled, untrained labor to build a complex product? What happens to customer satisfaction and quality? (I’ve seen it). It can result in a less than desirable outcome for the enterprise.

Supply does not meet demand. That’s it.

Not a lot more to speculate on. There are no watches stockpiled in my ADs safe. Yes, maybe some ADs have a ton. Maybe some huge chains, but not mine. At my AD, they sell them as fast as they come in due to demand.

Lots of people have money. They are not traveling. No vacations. They are making home improvements, buying luxury items, and so on. There’s plenty of cash. There are sooooooo many people with more money than me. Turns out, quite a few want Rolex. And a ton of them have longer and better relationships at ADs than I do, due to spending power and time. The majority of them are not even on this forum. We are a tiny segment.

No matter how many times we have threads like this, the answer is the same.

Supply cannot meet demand.

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by Bladeshot

I have a manufacturing hat, too.
At the moment, it’s really hard to ramp up production. It’s always a challenge. More so, now. Yes, it takes many years to do what Rolex would have to do. Maybe they are already started; maybe not. We don’t know.

The labor shortage due to current environment is hard to deal with, whether that’s the companies installing new production lines and equipment for Rolex, or whether it’s the in house labor, itself, needed by Rolex to build a Rolex. Labor must be trained, too.

Guess what happens when you add unskilled, untrained labor to build a complex product? What happens to customer satisfaction and quality? (I’ve seen it). It can result in a less than desirable outcome for the enterprise.

Supply does not meet demand. That’s it.

Not a lot more to speculate on. There are no watches stockpiled in my ADs safe. Yes, maybe some ADs have a ton. Maybe some huge chains, but not mine. At my AD, they sell them as fast as they come in due to demand.

Lots of people have money. They are not traveling. No vacations. They are making home improvements, buying luxury items, and so on. There’s plenty of cash. There are sooooooo many people with more money than me. Turns out, quite a few want Rolex. And a ton of them have longer and better relationships at ADs than I do, due to spending power and time. The majority of them are not even on this forum. We are a tiny segment.

No matter how many times we have threads like this, the answer is the same.

Supply cannot meet demand.

I think that hits the nail on the head !

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by Burlington

I think that hits the nail on the head !

Opinions will vary, let’s wait and watch.
⚡️

[Singslinger]

Originally Posted by Bladeshot

I have a manufacturing hat, too.
At the moment, it’s really hard to ramp up production. It’s always a challenge. More so, now. Yes, it takes many years to do what Rolex would have to do. Maybe they are already started; maybe not. We don’t know.

The labor shortage due to current environment is hard to deal with, whether that’s the companies installing new production lines and equipment for Rolex, or whether it’s the in house labor, itself, needed by Rolex to build a Rolex. Labor must be trained, too.

Guess what happens when you add unskilled, untrained labor to build a complex product? What happens to customer satisfaction and quality? (I’ve seen it). It can result in a less than desirable outcome for the enterprise.

Supply does not meet demand. That’s it.

Not a lot more to speculate on. There are no watches stockpiled in my ADs safe. Yes, maybe some ADs have a ton. Maybe some huge chains, but not mine. At my AD, they sell them as fast as they come in due to demand.

Lots of people have money. They are not traveling. No vacations. They are making home improvements, buying luxury items, and so on. There’s plenty of cash. There are sooooooo many people with more money than me. Turns out, quite a few want Rolex. And a ton of them have longer and better relationships at ADs than I do, due to spending power and time. The majority of them are not even on this forum. We are a tiny segment.

No matter how many times we have threads like this, the answer is the same.

Supply cannot meet demand.

Spot on!

[Polarexplorerii]

Ibtl

[BogdanS]

Originally Posted by Polarexplorerii

Ibtl

+1


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[GB-man]

It’s not just Rolex choosing not to meet demand. Every AD has a safe full of hot watches. They all play games.

[jerryguo]

of course artificial, Rolex could’ve increased the production to whatever they want to but they decide not to. it’s mass produced item after all


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[Burlington]

Originally Posted by jerryguo

of course artificial, Rolex could’ve increased the production to whatever they want to but they decide not to. it’s mass produced item after all


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This is the aspect that interests me most of the whole thing.

Just how easy would it be to ramp up production?

The tooling and investment could take years to get in place.

They could switch the manufacture of PM models into SS, but they then erode their margin (hence why AP has been intentionally doing the reverse)

[ROLEXROLEXROLEXRO]

Originally Posted by Burlington

This is the aspect that interests me most of the whole thing.

Just how easy would it be to ramp up production?

The tooling and investment could take years to get in place.

They could switch the manufacture of PM models into SS, but they then erode their margin (hence why AP has been intentionally doing the reverse)

It depends-- is the Rolex factory operating 24hours a day with 3 shifts like the typical American factory? If not, then increasing production is easy. If it's already going 24hr a day, then it'll be tough to increase production.

... but I doubt Swiss factories operate 24hrs a day...

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by ROLEXROLEXROLEXRO

It depends-- is the Rolex factory operating 24hours a day with 3 shifts like the typical American factory? If not, then increasing production is easy. If it's already going 24hr a day, then it'll be tough to increase production.

... but I doubt Swiss factories operate 24hrs a day...

This type of shift pattern isn’t necessarily something that can be quickly implemented - it varies country to country in Europe but Switzerland isn’t simple.

It would need consultation with the workers unions, extra staffing, training etc.

Round the clock security, canteens, engineering support etc.

There may also need scheduled maintenance that limits how many hours a week or month certain parts of the production line may operate.

[Dan GSR]

100% fake
My buddy with purchase history got a 41mm sub in 24 hours
I can't even get an OP

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Dan GSR

100% fake
My buddy with purchase history got a 41mm sub in 24 hours
I can't even get an OP

Not fake at all. Laws of supply and demand. I worked for an AD in marketing, they sit there and wait for inventory and when it comes in, they call their customers and sell some watches... geez.....

[AD337]

Originally Posted by garyk

Not fake at all. Laws of supply and demand. I worked for an AD in marketing, they sit there and wait for inventory and when it comes in, they call their customers and sell some watches... geez.....

True story

[vtsakiris]

Originally Posted by Dan GSR

100% fake
My buddy with purchase history got a 41mm sub in 24 hours
I can't even get an OP

Why don't you ask you buddy to get you an op from his ad!

as above ▲▼ so below

[PerpinNC]

Originally Posted by Dan GSR

100% fake
My buddy with purchase history got a 41mm sub in 24 hours
I can't even get an OP

Tell me about it, a simple OP

[Rado63]

As a collector, there are several watches of different brands, that I look for online to see if there is one for sale. Several pieces I search for and I can not find one, or maybe just a handful in various condition and price. If you google search any current Rolex in production you will find hundreds to buy. Don't confuse difficulty to purchase a watch from the AD as a shortage in supply.

[sgwatchguy]

Rolex has a board of directors that oversee the executive management (as all companies do). Now imagine the CEO of Rolex explaining to them that after the significant amount of capital invested and the amped up marketing expense on the submariner and OP line, he was going to send LESS product out the door that in the past so that the greys could do MORE business. Doesn’t make sense, does it?

Once the product is out the door from Rolex, all the games begin. The reason Rolex is ‘reported to be reporting’ higher revenues is cause they’re shipping more product and increasing price/margins for it.

There’s just more people buying more watches all over the world.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

Rolex has a board of directors that oversee the executive management (as all companies do). Now imagine the CEO of Rolex explaining to them that after the significant amount of capital invested and the amped up marketing expense on the submariner and OP line, he was going to send LESS product out the door that in the past so that the greys could do MORE business. Doesn’t make sense, does it?

Once the product is out the door from Rolex, all the games begin. The reason Rolex is ‘reported to be reporting’ higher revenues is cause they’re shipping more product and increasing price/margins for it.

There’s just more people buying more watches all over the world.

Yes!!

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

Rolex has a board of directors that oversee the executive management (as all companies do). Now imagine the CEO of Rolex explaining to them that after the significant amount of capital invested and the amped up marketing expense on the submariner and OP line, he was going to send LESS product out the door that in the past so that the greys could do MORE business. Doesn’t make sense, does it?

Once the product is out the door from Rolex, all the games begin. The reason Rolex is ‘reported to be reporting’ higher revenues is cause they’re shipping more product and increasing price/margins for it.

There’s just more people buying more watches all over the world.

This makes sense to me.

It would be interesting to know if the % of SS vs. PM manufactured has changed over the last few years as they move to a more premium positioning.

The SS demand fuelling the brand halo and steering more into the gold models.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

Rolex has a board of directors that oversee the executive management (as all companies do). Now imagine the CEO of Rolex explaining to them that after the significant amount of capital invested and the amped up marketing expense on the submariner and OP line, he was going to send LESS product out the door that in the past so that the greys could do MORE business. Doesn’t make sense, does it?

Once the product is out the door from Rolex, all the games begin. The reason Rolex is ‘reported to be reporting’ higher revenues is cause they’re shipping more product and increasing price/margins for it.

There’s just more people buying more watches all over the world.

Well stated. I agree