Dealer stock and prices

[drrich711]

First, I know this is probably a repeat question but I have not seen or addressed concisely in the forums. I am also fairly new to these pages so forgive me.

I would make the following observations:

1). My local AD has had little to no stock for months. Almost no sport models. Scarce men’s watches at all. Last week ONLY stock was a (beautiful) steel and RG brown dial jubilee date just and a Cellini.

2). It seems that pre- owned prices are through the roof. On at least one site I follow (Watchbox/Govberg) My subs (SS/gold), both new with ceramic snd old with metal bezels are listed for low/mid 5 figures.

I would ask the following questions. Responses backed by data as well as opinions are welcome:

1). Is the lack of stock due to lots of people buying watches? It doesn’t fit the current economic climate at least in my mind. Are people making comfort purchases with money saved on traveling etc.? Is this a supply or demand issue or both?

2). Is Rolex producing as many or more watches these days as in the past or are they trying to inflate the market?

Just not understanding what is going on. Thanks.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by drrich711

1). Is the lack of stock due to lots of people buying watches?

Yes

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by drrich711

My local AD has had little to no stock for months. Almost no sport models. Scarce men’s watches at all. Last week ONLY stock was a (beautiful) steel and RG brown dial jubilee date just and a Cellini.

They receive shipments of sport models and SAs sell them as soon as they arrive. How would you know how many sport models they sell?

[Binky1]

This may have been addressed on this forum before.

[emtee]

Originally Posted by Binky1

This may have been addressed on this forum before.

[Ace864]

As far as I know, it is hard to get a lower price for a per-owned watch

[Handey0465]

People keep talking about "no stock" and "empty cases"...

Every watch they get sells quickly. These ADs get stock and sell it. It doesn't sit in a case.

Why do we keep complaining about them having no stock?

[drrich711]

First, I acknowledge that I might not be the first one to bring up the topic. I appreciate the gentle guidance toward prior discussion.

Second, I am not complaining I am just asking. I have no way of knowing what my dealer is selling I just know that there are lines at the food banks and unemployment is at an all-time high. It didn’t seem to jibe with demand for a 5 figure item.

I know very little about the watch market and frankly very little about Rolex in general. Always looking to learn. Please be kind. Thank you.

[MercLBDM]

Originally Posted by drrich711

First, I acknowledge that I might not be the first one to bring up the topic. I appreciate the gentle guidance toward prior discussion.

Second, I am not complaining I am just asking. I have no way of knowing what my dealer is selling I just know that there are lines at the food banks and unemployment is at an all-time high. It didn’t seem to jibe with demand for a 5 figure item.

I know very little about the watch market and frankly very little about Rolex in general. Always looking to learn. Please be kind. Thank you.

If anything it seems demand has leapt even higher than it already was pre pandemic.

Not only watches, but anything luxury wise people can reach for while a lot of routine luxuries are hamstrung by “staying at home and staying safe”, home improvement and extensions, upgrading home luxuries like TVs, and automotive too. I sold 4 x the volume of cars I did in 2019 throughout 2020, and that despite being in furlough for a month and half from late March through to mid May.

There are a couple of phrases for it here in the UK that I know of “furlough dough” and “revenge spending”. Essentially people spending on other luxuries because travel, dining out and socialising in pubs and bars costs reduced to almost nil.


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[Delawareguy]

Originally Posted by drrich711

First, I acknowledge that I might not be the first one to bring up the topic. I appreciate the gentle guidance toward prior discussion.

Second, I am not complaining I am just asking. I have no way of knowing what my dealer is selling I just know that there are lines at the food banks and unemployment is at an all-time high. It didn’t seem to jibe with demand for a 5 figure item.

I know very little about the watch market and frankly very little about Rolex in general. Always looking to learn. Please be kind. Thank you.

People that need food banks and unemployment lines, were not typically Rolex buyers in good times...

[Shadow Play]

Originally Posted by Handey0465

People keep talking about "no stock" and "empty cases"...

Every watch they get sells quickly. These ADs get stock and sell it. It doesn't sit in a case.

Why do we keep complaining about them having no stock?

Exactly this. For people that are frustrated about the lack of Rolex please learn to yearn for Omega / Tag Heuer / Breitling etc, etc. Once you do that your ‘ordeal’ will be over.

[BLNR Nairobi]

Originally Posted by Handey0465

People keep talking about "no stock" and "empty cases"...

Every watch they get sells quickly. These ADs get stock and sell it. It doesn't sit in a case.

Why do we keep complaining about them having no stock?

Great point!

It is not that they don’t have stock. It is that the demand is substantial and thus any stock that comes, especially of professional steel references, is almost immediately soaked up. Resulting in ‘no stock’ for subsequent buyers.

[afmars]

1a) Yes
1b) It fits the economic climate just fine. The stock market is booming, money is being created out of the ether, the rich are getting richer, looming inflation and low interest rates, people are eager to spend Monday.
1c) Supply and demand but the majority of the demand is artificially driven by the lack of supply. People want them because they are unavailable.

2a) No one knows for sure but likely they are creating the same or a little more then they have in the past.
2b) I don’t think they are trying to inflate the market, but they definitely are not trying to make more watches to meet demand - that is not their goal. Their goal is to preserve their brand.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by afmars

1a) Yes
1b) It fits the economic climate just fine. The stock market is booming, money is being created out of the ether, the rich are getting richer, looming inflation and low interest rates, people are eager to spend Monday.
1c) Supply and demand but the majority of the demand is artificially driven by the lack of supply. People want them because they are unavailable.

2a) No one knows for sure but likely they are creating the same or a little more then they have in the past.
2b) I don’t think they are trying to inflate the market, but they definitely are not trying to make more watches to meet demand - that is not their goal. Their goal is to preserve their brand.

Spot on.


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[RazorD]

The other thing to consider is most ADs don’t put any of those hot models out. Most will keep them in the back for the right VIP if they don’t already have one in mind. Every desirable SS sport that I’ve gotten in the last few years have come from the back. Gone are the days of judging an AD’s supply by the cases.

[afmars]

Originally Posted by RazorD

The other thing to consider is most ADs don’t put any of those hot models out. Most will keep them in the back for the right VIP if they don’t already have one in mind. Every desirable SS sport that I’ve gotten in the last few years have come from the back. Gone are the days of judging an AD’s supply by the cases.

Many ADs as policy do not put anything SS out. even steel datejust area sold exclusive from the safe.

[BroncoOne]

Demand far outstrips supply.

People who buy expensive watches and that have relationships with ADs have done well and their cash balances are rising because they aren’t spending money like they were pre COVID.

Rolex watches have become something like an asset class to many people, not just the rich people. They are viewed as a quick flip profit opportunity or as something that will hold value of you keep it, so you can sell it later for a profit or for what you paid (certainly not guaranteed but true today) and get a different watch with the proceeds.

[JodyHighroller]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Demand far outstrips supply.

People who buy expensive watches and that have relationships with ADs have done well and their cash balances are rising because they aren’t spending money like they were pre COVID.

Rolex watches have become something like an asset class to many people, not just the rich people. They are viewed as a quick flip profit opportunity or as something that will hold value of you keep it, so you can sell it later for a profit or for what you paid (certainly not guaranteed but true today) and get a different watch with the proceeds.

Demand outstrips supply at MSRP.

[Harry-57]

ADs have plenty of stock. A lot of it just doesn't get as far as the display.

[Jb1264]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

ADs have plenty of stock. A lot of it just doesn't get as far as the display.

The rest is tucked away in the safe to be used to upsell other items in store
Theres some correlation between references not on display, but attracting a premium on CHR24

[ronricks]

As far as SS goes they get stock and either sell it immediately or it goes in "the back" to be used as a dangling carrot to make people bundle with other jewelry or ladies models. It's never in the case. The only sports models I see in the case around me are TT Daytona, TT YachtMaster's and TT Subs or the occasional TT SeaDweller. They are now even keeping the SS Datejust 41's and Milgauss "in the back" as ridiculous as that sounds. People that can't get a SS Sub, SeaDweller, or GMT will throw their hands up in the air and buy a SS Datejust 41 even if they don't really want one out of frustration just to get something.

[Sandpit]

For the final question, I would think that production is down given the current crisis. I know that many other major brands are struggling to produce the same numbers given the pandemic.

[Me4u2night]

There is no lack of supply... Just walk down 47st in NYC... You'll see everything you want there.

[Ringhio]

Originally Posted by Me4u2night

There is no lack of supply... Just walk down 47st in NYC... You'll see everything you want there.

This...
There are plenty of them, either in the AD safe or they are flipped.
You just don't see them.

47st... just 1 window yesterday. It's full of "hard to get" Rolex...

[Andad]

Originally Posted by Me4u2night

There is no lack of supply... Just walk down 47st in NYC... You'll see everything you want there.

Just for clarity you are referring to AD’s?

The pix in post 18 doesn’t look like an AD to me.

We all know there is an abundance of models at Grey outlets.

FYI ddrich. Why not just log out and leave.

[Ringhio]

Originally Posted by Andad

Just for clarity you are referring to AD’s?

The pix in post 18 doesn’t look like an AD to me.

We all know there is an abundance of models at Grey outlets.

FYI ddrich. Why not just log out and leave.

47th st in Manhattan it’s all grey dealers/resellers, the ADs start above 52nd st, and they have some DJs and Cellini that nobody is buying.
The pix I posted are from one of the resellers and 47th st is literally exploding with “hard to find” Rolex.
And to be honest, nobody is buying them too (and they look so cheap in those plastic bags under terrible lights...)
Greys have had basically the same watches exposed for the past two years.
I guess we all know the truth about scarcity and the market.
The offer is Limited but not that low, the premiums are definitely too high, not all the pieces from greys are actually getting moved so easily.

[drrich711]

I (foolishly) I guess thought that people would be doing some “belt tightening” given the chaos and uncertainty. Was that implication so unclear as to take my post literally? Let’s close commenting.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by drrich711

I (foolishly) I guess thought that people would be doing some “belt tightening” given the chaos and uncertainty. Was that implication so unclear as to take my post literally? Let’s close commenting.

It appears that the segment of the population needing to tighten their belts in these times have such a tiny economic share that their income and consumption patterns no longer matter.

They have ceased being able to afford anything of consequence.

We’re in the bad news is good news economy and who knows how long that will last. Or how it will end. Possibly with great violence and Rolex watches won’t matter anymore.

Until then, Rolex is the undisputed king and getting stronger by not giving in to market demand.

Availability at MSRP is already a thing of the past for some references, and will soon be for ALL references. Except a few which Rolex and ADs would be happy to leave in their display cases as a show of the brand’s strength.

‘Look, this is all you can get’. Some shoppers get turned off, but more get turned on, ironically.

So in the name of common sense, anyone who’s not in it for the snob appeal should turn to brands other than Rolex.

But they never really do do they?


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[huncho]

Originally Posted by drrich711

I (foolishly) I guess thought that people would be doing some “belt tightening” given the chaos and uncertainty. Was that implication so unclear as to take my post literally? Let’s close commenting.

people that are out of jobs right now were never in the market for a rolex to begin with

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by drrich711

I (foolishly) I guess thought that people would be doing some “belt tightening” given the chaos and uncertainty. Was that implication so unclear as to take my post literally? Let’s close commenting.

Some are, many many more are not