Market correction :: I'm excited to watch from the sideline

[messikens]

Apologize in advance for another market trend thread...
That said, I've noticed there's been a significant drop over the last couple of weeks.

The 15500s I look at at chrono24 used to have an asking of low to mid-80s until a few weeks ago. Now plenty of low to mid-70s available and one of the board members just advertised one in mint condition for 65k.

26420 taupes (another one I'm monitoring) used to be low to mid-60s. Now advertised for 57k new.

All in about a 20% correction from what I'm seeing. Not that I care since I wont pay over retail (because my patience usually can outlast my wallet size) and am not looking to sell but just found it interesting.

Maybe some sense is returning...?


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[tzechong]

I recently had 2 options on a 77350ST silver for my wife and landed a 2022 brand new for 10% above RRP which was a pretty good result.

Now in the market for a 15450ST blue (given wrist size for myself). Given the exponential rise over the last 4 months (let alone 12 months) - I am hoping this rebases a bit more sensibly.

This is in Oz where we do not have AP boutiques sadly -

[Willyjo]

Originally Posted by tzechong

I recently had 2 options on a 77350ST silver for my wife and landed a 2022 brand new for 10% above RRP which was a pretty good result.

Now in the market for a 15450ST blue (given wrist size for myself). Given the exponential rise over the last 4 months (let alone 12 months) - I am hoping this rebases a bit more sensibly.

This is in Oz where we do not have AP boutiques sadly -

Swiss Concept on Pitt St in Sydney is still an AD.


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[tzechong]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

Swiss Concept on Pitt St in Sydney is still an AD.


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Number of ADs here, but without blue dial allocations which were boutique only. Has that changed for the 2022s?

[dh1]

Originally Posted by messikens

Apologize in advance for another market trend thread...
That said, I've noticed there's been a significant drop over the last couple of weeks.

I've noticed this too... inventory is sitting. I've seen the 15202STs dipping. e.g. European Watch Company is asking $122.5k for a 15202ST (1240) full set. A few months ago they were listing >=$140k.

[Watchandhoop]

Originally Posted by messikens

Apologize in advance for another market trend thread...
That said, I've noticed there's been a significant drop over the last couple of weeks.

The 15500s I look at at chrono24 used to have an asking of low to mid-80s until a few weeks ago. Now plenty of low to mid-70s available and one of the board members just advertised one in mint condition for 65k.

26420 taupes (another one I'm monitoring) used to be low to mid-60s. Now advertised for 57k new.

All in about a 20% correction from what I'm seeing. Not that I care since I wont pay over retail (because my patience usually can outlast my wallet size) and am not looking to sell but just found it interesting.

Maybe some sense is returning...?


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I feel like this has happened in the spring for the past 2 years. Everything seems to shoot down 10-15% and hits the true market value. I feel like we will see things creep up from here. Pepsis and Rootbeers were trading in the low 30s last month now there back to 25-27. 26420 Taupe has been trading at 55-58 for a while now. The 26420 has the most potential to grow out of the APs I feel it’s undervalued compared to other AP watches. I don’t pay over retail either, it is interesting to follow everything though!

[psm11]

Originally Posted by messikens

Apologize in advance for another market trend thread...
That said, I've noticed there's been a significant drop over the last couple of weeks.

The 15500s I look at at chrono24 used to have an asking of low to mid-80s until a few weeks ago. Now plenty of low to mid-70s available and one of the board members just advertised one in mint condition for 65k.

26420 taupes (another one I'm monitoring) used to be low to mid-60s. Now advertised for 57k new.

All in about a 20% correction from what I'm seeing. Not that I care since I wont pay over retail (because my patience usually can outlast my wallet size) and am not looking to sell but just found it interesting.

Maybe some sense is returning...?


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Yes, but having patience alone isn't going to get most folks a RO. It will likely be patience plus buying a few less desirable pieces. In the end, gray market will likely have been the cheaper route (for those who don't care about starting a relationship with AP).

Inventory has been slow moving for a few months with a lot of gray dealers. Takuya has had a Panda ROC up on his site for about 2 months and it hasn't moved. Originally listed if for about $100k and price has dropped to low $90ks and still not sold. Hopefully this is the start of prices coming back down to reality a bit. Prices for ROs in Moda have also come down quite a bit.

[ajw45]

Chinese sales were already dropping before half the country went on lockdown for covid... again... but this time the rich half... and while less then 10% the size of the Chinese market, the Russian market is closed too. Europeans are seeing crazy energy prices, other countries crazy wheat prices, new and pre-owned inventory has nowhere to go but here. Not a crash but this is more than just a seasonal lull all while the brands are working overtime to up production.

[911AP]

There is no market correction. This happens every year. By winter everything will be through the roof again. Aftermarket is dead around this time and into the summer. It's a seasonal market. These watches doubled in like 6 months then pulled back 10-20%. Let's see where they all are by the end of the year.

Though I have noticed the grey dealers are buying less RM. They used to stock multiple of the same RM model. So maybe the RM market is going through a true correction. But I keep seeing videos of all them buying up patek and AP like no tomorrow.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by 911AP

There is no market correction. This happens every year. By winter everything will be through the roof again. Aftermarket is dead around this time and into the summer. It's a seasonal market. These watches doubled in like 6 months then pulled back 10-20%. Let's see where they all are by the end of the year.

Though I have noticed the grey dealers are buying less RM. They used to stock multiple of the same RM model. So maybe the RM market is going through a true correction. But I keep seeing videos of all them buying up patek and AP like no tomorrow.

No need to wait until the Winter.......let's see what happens after tomorrow and whatever new releases come out and what is (perhaps) discontinued from the AP catalogue.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by 911AP

There is no market correction. This happens every year. By winter everything will be through the roof again. Aftermarket is dead around this time and into the summer. It's a seasonal market. These watches doubled in like 6 months then pulled back 10-20%. Let's see where they all are by the end of the year.

Though I have noticed the grey dealers are buying less RM. They used to stock multiple of the same RM model. So maybe the RM market is going through a true correction. But I keep seeing videos of all them buying up patek and AP like no tomorrow.

Where I live dealers stocked up on Patek Nautilus like no tomorrow early this year. Inventories quickly rose to record levels. For two months most of those watches have been sitting.

What happened?

There is a major war little more than one flight hour away. Within weeks 12 million people have been displaced (at least temporarily). Europe hasn't seen anything like this since World War II. Picking up another watch for 100+k has dropped way down on the list of priorities.

On top of the war there are other factors at play globally that have me thinking this year may well be different.

[supernova]

Originally Posted by ts3

Where I live dealers stocked up on Patek Nautilus like no tomorrow early this year. Inventories quickly rose to record levels. For two months most of those watches have been sitting.

What happened?

There is a major war little more than one flight hour away. Within weeks 12 million people have been displaced (at least temporarily). Europe hasn't seen anything like this since World War II. Picking up another watch for 100+k has dropped way down on the list of priorities.

On top of the war there are other factors at play globally that have me thinking this year may well be different.

On the contrary, because of all the global events, uncertainties and record inflation, a lot of folks I know are trying to get rid of cash for hard assets such as watches. But the war happened over a month ago, maybe that initial spike in buying has cooled a bit now?


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[ts3]

Originally Posted by supernova

On the contrary, because of all the global events, uncertainties and record inflation, a lot of folks I know are trying to get rid of cash for hard assets such as watches. But the war happened over a month ago, maybe that initial spike in buying has cooled a bit now?


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There was no initial spike in buying when the war broke out. The opposite is what happened in Germany where I live. And yes, there is record inflation but at the same time central banks are tightening money supply. Then there is China. I would not bet on watch prices ending the year higher than the peak we have seen in February.

[rolexpure]

Originally Posted by 911AP

There is no market correction. This happens every year. By winter everything will be through the roof again. Aftermarket is dead around this time and into the summer. It's a seasonal market. These watches doubled in like 6 months then pulled back 10-20%. Let's see where they all are by the end of the year.

Though I have noticed the grey dealers are buying less RM. They used to stock multiple of the same RM model. So maybe the RM market is going through a true correction. But I keep seeing videos of all them buying up patek and AP like no tomorrow.

This is actually not correct. Yes every year we have a slight bump but this is different. It's the same across the world actually where gray dealers are not buying anything.

Nothing much is really moving at the current asking prices and when you try to sell something the figures are horrifically low.

This is NOT the same as the yearly blip. Market is very very very slow and prices are indeed dropping across the board.

Rolex, AP, Patek and RM all suffering significant price drops now. I think we will see more drops - when you see HK dealers outright say no to hot models there is a BIG problem.

[macrowatch]

Reminds me a bit of an oil cartel mis-step. I think the inter dealer market squeezed prices up to boost margins to capture all the holiday and especially banking bonus sales, but then once all that extra cash went away, there was no demand at these 100k+ prices.

Oh well.

What I think is more interesting to observe (because it's actually still pretty rare to find individual pieces IMHO at specific dealers), is when you see the new pieces come out and see which pieces are getting traded out into the market. For example when the Ceramic openwork appeared, it was like suddenly out of no where two 26331IP's came out onto the market. And then with these 50th anniversary ROC's, suddenly a lot of blue 26331ST's came out for the upgrade. Well, at least 'a lot' here is like 20-30.

As a new observer, I find this dynamic of 'new' being best for AP interesting and a bit alien. Kind of like fashion, have to have the current season, not vintage.

Finally, completely off topic, a JN Shapiro in tantalum? Wow, first watch I've seen that makes me more excited than AP. Exciting times for watch collecting with so many excellent choices.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by 911AP

There is no market correction. This happens every year. By winter everything will be through the roof again. Aftermarket is dead around this time and into the summer. It's a seasonal market. These watches doubled in like 6 months then pulled back 10-20%. Let's see where they all are by the end of the year.

How many times is this excuse going to come up? ''Yeah it's seasonal''.

So many people saying so many different things, useless.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

How many times is this excuse going to come up? ''Yeah it's seasonal''.

So many people saying so many different things, useless.

Originally Posted by rolexpure

This is actually not correct. Yes every year we have a slight bump but this is different. It's the same across the world actually where gray dealers are not buying anything.

Nothing much is really moving at the current asking prices and when you try to sell something the figures are horrifically low.

This is NOT the same as the yearly blip. Market is very very very slow and prices are indeed dropping across the board.

Rolex, AP, Patek and RM all suffering significant price drops now. I think we will see more drops - when you see HK dealers outright say no to hot models there is a BIG problem.

Wait and see.....I was in a AD in Miami recently and was wearing my jumbo. They offered me 170k on the spot if I was willing to sell. I'm not of course. The dealers are still buying. Every year there is a slight downturn at this time. Maybe now there is a bit more of a downturn because of global events. It will pass......Everyone said prices would never reach the level they are now, but they did. I think prices will start creeping up again.

I think what's getting hit the most is RM. The RM market I think received more of a correction than AP or Patek.

[Horsin’ Around]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Wait and see.....I was in a AD in Miami recently and was wearing my jumbo. They offered me 170k on the spot if I was willing to sell. I'm not of course. The dealers are still buying. Every year there is a slight downturn at this time. Maybe now there is a bit more of a downturn because of global events. It will pass......Everyone said prices would never reach the level they are now, but they did. I think prices will start creeping up again.

I think what's getting hit the most is RM. The RM market I think received more of a correction than AP or Patek.

Wow. Dealers are offering 170 for jumbos?

Were you wearing a 15202 or 16202?

I could see offering you 170 for a 16202.


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[DonLee]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Wait and see.....I was in a AD in Miami recently and was wearing my jumbo. They offered me 170k on the spot if I was willing to sell. I'm not of course. The dealers are still buying. Every year there is a slight downturn at this time. Maybe now there is a bit more of a downturn because of global events. It will pass......Everyone said prices would never reach the level they are now, but they did. I think prices will start creeping up again.

I think what's getting hit the most is RM. The RM market I think received more of a correction than AP or Patek.

170k for a jumbo? may I ask which jumbo it is that?

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Horsin’ Around

Wow. Dealers are offering 170 for jumbos?

Were you wearing a 15202 or 16202?

I could see offering you 170 for a 16202.


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Originally Posted by DonLee

170k for a jumbo? may I ask which jumbo it is that?

Plain old 15202st. I wish I had a 16202.....They probably would have offered 300k

I'm telling you guys.....market is still hot. People are still crazy.

I think with the 15202 is mirroring the 5711. I always thought the 15202 was completely undervalued compared to the 5711. Then for a short while they were the same price or fairly close to it.

[xeal]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Wait and see.....I was in a AD in Miami recently and was wearing my jumbo. They offered me 170k on the spot if I was willing to sell. I'm not of course. The dealers are still buying. Every year there is a slight downturn at this time. Maybe now there is a bit more of a downturn because of global events. It will pass......Everyone said prices would never reach the level they are now, but they did. I think prices will start creeping up again.

I think what's getting hit the most is RM. The RM market I think received more of a correction than AP or Patek.

Why not sell your jumbo for 170K and buy another one for 125?
Noones paying you 170K for a 15202 I'm afraid.
I'm not saying they didn't offer that to you or youre lying, I'm saying there is 0% chance they were seriously going to do it.

Originally Posted by supernova

Isn’t that what has happened in watches over past 3-5 years in that a lot of the “newer” guys buying at inflated prices think that watches are better than gold and it will be worth a lot more tomorrow?

I perfectly understand what your saying and the logical thinking of buying undervalued assets rather than over valued, and I certainly wouldn’t be buying any hyped pieces at current prices. But I’m quite sure most in the current watch game never bought stocks or gold and think a Daytona is undervalued today at $50k (or whatever it is now) as it will be worth more tomorrow and much more next day, think they will never lose money on a Daytona. And this is the exact mentality of some of the folks I know buying as mentioned in my previous post. I’ve given the spiel that stocks are a much wiser investment than watches but it just goes over their heads.


And that’s the mentality alot of greys are putting into these folks with their sales pitch for watches being investments(check out the hundreds of YouTube vids).


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Not really, it was primarily the last 2 years during covid, and more so, the last 12 months. Prior to the discontinuation of the 5711/15202, things were not as wild as they were last month.
I have decent relationships with some ADs, but prior to 2020 I would go grey when I was getting impatient, it was not entirely crazy to do so and many collectors did it. Premiums were sensible.

Regarding your last point, I agree with you undoubtedly. Thing is, the folks left holding the bag are going to bite heavy heavy losses. They took their own advice too seriously and forgot the downside.
5980R is down around 85-90K from its peak. 5711/1a is down an easy 40K from its peak, don't get me started on RMs or 5990s, and the list goes on across all APs and VCs etc.

No-one is saying the market is "crashing", but I'm saying its impossible to rule out that prices will continue to gradually deflate. You realize how many of these watches are out there? They will be more and more available the more prices fall because people will want to get out of them.
So in theory as an "investor", if you paid 40K for a panda and they reached 52K last month, you felt like a genius. Today, youre probably leaning towards selling at 45. If you aren't, then when it comes down to 38 (hypothetically), at that point you no longer feel like a genius but rather like a guy that got caught into the hype.

Let us revisit this thread in the future though. Will be interesting to see

[seadubs]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Wait and see.....I was in a AD in Miami recently and was wearing my jumbo. They offered me 170k on the spot if I was willing to sell. I'm not of course. The dealers are still buying. Every year there is a slight downturn at this time. Maybe now there is a bit more of a downturn because of global events. It will pass......Everyone said prices would never reach the level they are now, but they did. I think prices will start creeping up again.

I think what's getting hit the most is RM. The RM market I think received more of a correction than AP or Patek.

Where are you guys seeing deals on RMs?

[Bearxj86]

I think this pullback is a good thing. Prices were climbing way too fast.

[DK7]

anyone know how much % are Royal Oaks (not Offshore, Codes etc..) of the AP yearly production?

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by DK7

anyone know how much % are Royal Oaks (not Offshore, Codes etc..) of the AP yearly production?

Somebody a while back posted a rumored number of 50th anniversary pieces - someone in the 20k range (high 20's?), so about 50% of annual production. Even if correct, it's not clear if that is representative of non-anniversary years.

[Champagnepapi]

Prices were increasing way way too fast, due to greedy dealers trying to squeeze whatever they can and make bigger margins. This is a good sign, means prices reached a level that even the people caught in the hype understand are unreasonable.
It’s still ridiculous to think that a watch can be sold for $80K market price at 10:00 and again for $86K at 18:00 market price same day and for $91K by 23:00. Just doesn’t make sense artificial value fiddling always catches up in the end

It’s funny how suddenly all those grey dealers now drive supercars and travel first class to flex on their YouTube or Instagram page. Yet they claim they been making same margins or even less than back in the day lol


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[Crashblue]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

Prices were increasing way way too fast, due to greedy dealers trying to squeeze whatever they can and make bigger margins. This is a good sign, means prices reached a level that even the people caught in the hype understand are unreasonable.
It’s still ridiculous to think that a watch can be sold for $80K market price at 10:00 and again for $86K at 18:00 market price same day and for $91K by 23:00. Just doesn’t make sense artificial value fiddling always catches up in the end

It’s funny how suddenly all those grey dealers now drive supercars and travel first class to flex on their YouTube or Instagram page. Yet they claim they been making same margins or even less than back in the day lol


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That is a "Self-fulfilling prophecy" person A checks chrono24 10k for my watch, "I offers it for 11k to settle for 10k", person b wants to sell the same watch, checks chrono24 11k, "I go with 12k to settle at 11k", person c ...

[messikens]

Originally Posted by Crashblue

That is a "Self-fulfilling prophecy" person A checks chrono24 10k for my watch, "I offers it for 11k to settle for 10k", person b wants to sell the same watch, checks chrono24 11k, "I go with 12k to settle at 11k", person c ...

Haha or now it’s the other way around... In chrono24 for $40k and sitting there... Someone else wants to make a sale and puts it in for $38k.

Potential buyer notices and is waiting for another potential reduction. $40k seller sees $38k watch still sitting there and needs to close so may reduce to $37k...

Funny how quickly things may turn


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[DonLee]

Lots of people are selling watches by the lot. It coincides a bit with the big downturn on the stock market and the Chinese market, which is huge.

[crispyness87]

Whatever it is, prices now are still way higher than Oct-Dec'21 prices, which themselves are way too high as they were.