Florida Real Estate

[superdog]

Curious what the thought bank here has to say. I imagine it’ll be a mixed bag. But asking anyway.

I’m in Delray Beach visiting my folks for the holiday. Flying home now actually.

But for a year I’ve been flirting with the idea of retiring here. I’m only 49, but it might happen in a year or so. Or it might happen in 10. Hard to say exactly. And retirement will be only from what I’m doing now. I don’t know what I’d do, but I know I’d have to do something to keep my squirrel mind occupied.

Anyway…

I went looking yesterday in Delray. I really like the area. But dang… I can not afford anything I want. A small condo, 25 minute walk to the beach, was a million bucks. The homes I really liked were 3 million plus, easy. Are they nice? Yes. Definitely. But for that kind of loot. Dang.

Not sure what I was expecting. I’ve been looking online for a while now. Looking in person is different. I live in the hottest market in north jersey. Puts my area to shame.

I can start looking further from the beach. Or I can start looking at other areas. I actually prefer Tampa, but it’s far from my folks which is part of my motivation to be here.

Now to the crux of my question. You think these prices will hold, retract or grow? I know that none of you have crystal balls. But you guys are smart. Some of you anyway. And I value opinions.

My opinion: prices are going to hold or grow. This area is hot and that’s not changing. Low RE taxes and no income tax. People from jersey and New York are flocking here. There are currently more job opportunities in Fla than in New York. I think things will hold at a minimum.

That said, I’m very tight with a number of very successful industrial brokers. Most of them dabble in residential to diversify their investments. They, almost all of them, think there will be a big drop. And in the next 12-18 months. Their reasoning is that demand spiked massively. So there is a ton of development. But with the uncertain economy and the increased interest rates, the demand is lessening greatly. The increased inventory and the decreased demand will create a drop in prices. They have other reasons too. But that’s the theme.

Keep in mind, pricing has jumped nearly 100% in the last 4 years.

Fwiw, I have learned I cannot trust residential RE agents. I’m sure there are good ones. But I have learned they tell you what’s good for them, not what’s good for you. I realize it’s the nature of a commission based industry. But as a sales professional I made a career out of gaining trust by doing what’s best for my customers. My personal experience has been disappointing both in jersey and in Fla. Even with friends. Even after I warn them about past experiences. Their goal is to sell something, anything, at all costs.

So I’d value what I hear here. Which is very likely unbiased options based on the above.

[Bstewart]

I've been looking at buying a place in the Tampa/Sarasota area for a year now, prices continue dropping. And you are spot on about RE agents.

[330ci]

Value retention aside, being close to family is priceless.

Personally I think assets of any class are great investments at the moment with prime real estate being near the top. Can't imagine there being much loss at all unless you had to sell in the short term

With the currency devaluation we're experiencing i can't imagine things dropping too much. Most economists seem to believe that growth will stop or stagnate but not too many saying the bottom is going to fall out and im a huge doom and gloom guy.

Apparently were just going to print money more aggressively to ensure it doesn't happen.


Personally can't stand the way the real estate industry is set up. I feel like I do a better job finding properties than anyone I've ever had look for me. Then they always talk me out of the good shit I find.

My "best friend" tried selling me a house 100k over market and was spewing all sorts of BS to me about how great of a deal it was... no shame in the industry ��

[JParm]

Delray is great.

We've been kicking around the thought of moving to FL in the next 3 years but the housing divide between here (CA) and there is really shrinking, making the benefit of moving over there not as beneficial to us.

Do we continue paying the sunshine tax here in CA or suck it up and take the brutal humidity but tax-free benefit of FL? When housing was cheap in FL, it was an easier decision. Now we're going back and forth almost daily about it.

To answer your question, I personally don't see the housing going down any time soon in FL and if that is the case, we'd rather stay in our current home (very low interest rate) and pay the taxes.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by JParm

Delray is great.

We've been kicking around the thought of moving to FL in the next 3 years but the housing divide between here (CA) and there is really shrinking, making the benefit of moving over there not as beneficial to us.

Do we continue paying the sunshine tax here in CA or suck it up and take the brutal humidity but tax-free benefit of FL? When housing was cheap in FL, it was an easier decision. Now we're going back and forth almost daily about it.

To answer your question, I personally don't see the housing going down any time soon in FL and if that is the case, we'd rather stay in our current home (very low interest rate) and pay the taxes.

Such a chill fun area.

I was in Miami in February for a car thing. I left saying, nah…Florida is not for me. Two days in Delray and I’m all about it again.

Will keep looking.

Might just rent a place for January and February. See how I feel after.

But I’m starting to think Tampa might be a better bet for me. Especially as I love the Gulf of Mexico.

[MrGoat]

My man, this is kind of my arena.

Everyone I deal with is pushing harder than ever before. It’s freaking gangbusters here for new developments.

Those moving are coming here with cash and they’re not buying the 3 million dollar homes. They’re buying the 400-600k houses cash. Currently the Tampa Bay metro region is the Belle of the ball.

I do not predict the new development market (400-600k) to slow down until after next years election and that’s depending on how it swings.

The high end market is not as hot and there are deals to be had but you’d have to scout and know the area. For instance, a two home compound on 3 acres in a very desirable location in the old money zip code of my town sold for just at a million. It was listed at 1.25 and sat on the market for 6 months or so.

Most large houses on the water or within a few miles of it are being bought up by private equity companies and turned into vacation rentals for 8k a week.

Tampa is relatively centrally located and you can get anywhere in the state in 5 hours or less. I wouldn’t let being on the other side of the state from your parents stop you from the Tampa Bay Area. It’s a gem that is only growing stronger. Lots of opportunities here and more on the horizon.

In 08 when SHTF there was a quick dip and then prices rose higher than before. I don’t know if it would be any different with this next projected market correction.

Call me if you want me to elaborate. I have some very good friends/family that are some of the best realtors in America. I’d be happy to hook you all up or shoot you some deals in the great areas I know of.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

My man, this is kind of my arena.

Everyone I deal with is pushing harder than ever before. It’s freaking gangbusters here for new developments.

Those moving are coming here with cash and they’re not buying the 3 million dollar homes. They’re buying the 400-600k houses cash. Currently the Tampa Bay metro region is the Belle of the ball.

I do not predict the new development market (400-600k) to slow down until after next years election and that’s depending on how it swings.

The high end market is not as hot and there are deals to be had but you’d have to scout and know the area. For instance, a two home compound on 3 acres in a very desirable location in the old money zip code of my town sold for just at a million. It was listed at 1.25 and sat on the market for 6 months or so.

Most large houses on the water or within a few miles of it are being bought up by private equity companies and turned into vacation rentals for 8k a week.

Tampa is relatively centrally located and you can get anywhere in the state in 5 hours or less. I wouldn’t let being on the other side of the state from your parents stop you from the Tampa Bay Area. It’s a gem that is only growing stronger. Lots of opportunities here and more on the horizon.

In 08 when SHTF there was a quick dip and then prices rose higher than before. I don’t know if it would be any different with this next projected market correction.

Call me if you want me to elaborate. I have some very good friends/family that are some of the best realtors in America. I’d be happy to hook you all up or shoot you some deals in the great areas I know of.


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This is good stuff. And I’ll definitely be calling. Thanks brother.

[brandrea]

Full disclosure I know nothing about US real estate.

That said, IMHO buy the best property in the best location that you’re comfortable with. Long term, you’ll do just fine.

[JasoninDenver]

"Now to the crux of my question. You think these prices will hold, retract or grow?"

Yes. To all three. Since your plans are indefinite, you are in the ideal position. Spend a few years traveling the state to figure out where and what you want. Zillow is a fantastic resource for judging FMV or any property - no matter what real estate agents may say.

Tampa Bay is undergoing a huge urban redevelopment driven by Jeff Vinick, who owns the Lightning. Apparently he feels the potential for this area is exceptional. I do not know if I would ever be wise enough to bet against him. So, in the long term, areas like this will continue to rise, albeit with occasional market downturns.

I certainly agree with your opinion on residential real estate agents. I have been extremely fortunate to have found one here in Denver and one in our weekend town are exceptional. I have had many more that were completely dishonest to me, their own client.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

"Now to the crux of my question. You think these prices will hold, retract or grow?"

Yes. To all three. Since your plans are indefinite, you are in the ideal position. Spend a few years traveling the state to figure out where and what you want. Zillow is a fantastic resource for judging FMV or any property - no matter what real estate agents may say.

Tampa Bay is undergoing a huge urban redevelopment driven by Jeff Vinick, who owns the Lightning. Apparently he feels the potential for this area is exceptional. I do not know if I would ever be wise enough to bet against him. So, in the long term, areas like this will continue to rise, albeit with occasional market downturns.

I certainly agree with your opinion on residential real estate agents. I have been extremely fortunate to have found one here in Denver and one in our weekend town are exceptional. I have had many more that were completely dishonest to me, their own client.

It’s crazy. I did a lot with my previous agent. And I warned her politely that I felt she was giving me blatantly bad advise.

Then I told her I wanted to rent one of my rental instead of selling. I was debating both options. Her response was so crazy I left her.

I went to a kid I know. I used to teach his mother yoga. I had drinks at his house with his parents when he was in HS. I told him why I left my previous agent.

He’s doing the same stuff.

The women I was sign yesterday blatantly lied to me. Then one told me I’d never notice the trains as they are not permitted to blow their horns. Smh.

And appreciate the advise/thoughts.

[Sebenza]

If you're thinking of Tampa, you know the guy to talk to. Have you thought about Pensacola? There is a pretty cool guy out there who owns an HVAC company and loves watches and cars.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Sebenza

If you're thinking of Tampa, you know the guy to talk to. Have you thought about Pensacola? There is a pretty cool guy out there who owns an HVAC company and loves watches and cars.

Lmao. I talk to that dude in Pensacola almost daily.

Too far sadly from my folks. Warming up to Tampa.

[pa1113]

I've been an investor for a long time in a number of markets - trying to guess what these markets will do in the next 1 to 2 years is very hard and not the way to look at things anyway. I mean, for sure, if we had crystal balls, we'd know exactly where/when to buy. But we don't.

A good market, like Florida, where people want to go, will stay strong, long-term in my opinion. That's what you should be worried about. When you pick to buy is a guess, plus some good research. But owning real estate and holding real estate is always a good thing historically.


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[SDGT3]

Not specific to FL, but rather RE in general: First rent for 3 mo at a time to see where you want to plant roots.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Not specific to FL, but rather RE in general: First rent for 3 mo at a time to see where you want to plant roots.

Definitely makes sense.

My plan is the coldest months of next year, I’ll be in Florida. Somewhere renting. Evaluating.

[Kinnakeet]

Tampa is wonderful. Sarasota is even better.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Kinnakeet

Tampa is wonderful. Sarasota is even better.

That’s great to know.

Will definitely look into it.

Thank you.

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by Kinnakeet

Tampa is wonderful. Sarasota is even better.

Originally Posted by superdog

That’s great to know.



Will definitely look into it.



Thank you.

FYI, I consider Sarasota as part of the Tampa Bay Area.


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[HL65]

Originally Posted by superdog

That’s great to know.

Will definitely look into it.

Thank you.

Love living year round in SW FL my man! No more winter and no more taxes.

As for RE - demand still strong and most inventory new construction in the higher price range.
Also, anyone who bought few years ago and locked in at a low rate not likely to give that up.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by HL65

Love living year round in SW FL my man! No more winter and no more taxes.

As for RE - demand still strong and most inventory new construction in the higher price range.
Also, anyone who bought few years ago and locked in at a low rate not likely to give that up.

brother this is part of my argument too. I am thinking that prices are not coming down. apparently 2,000 people a day are moving to fla. sure, most are at the 400k to 600k range.

I am super close to doing something. having fun looking I suppose.

[Naples09]

Originally Posted by superdog

brother this is part of my argument too. I am thinking that prices are not coming down. apparently 2,000 people a day are moving to fla. sure, most are at the 400k to 600k range.

I am super close to doing something. having fun looking I suppose.

Seth - I can't add much more than the info you've already received, but I tend to agree with Ken and Mr. Goat! Can't see prices crashing.

The variable will be what does the economy and Fed does in the coming months. That will determine if and how large a downturn we see in RE in FL. And as you state - no one really knows. I can tell you the state is growing like mad; but FL has a history of RE bubbles. Read up about the bubble in the 20-30's and we all know what happen in the early 2000's before the crash.

We lived in Tampa for 10 years on Harbour Island - it was a wonderful life back them, but traffic was becoming a major issue in town due to all the people and construction going on. Bought in 2012 sold in 2018 - major run up in prices.

We are in Naples now with a place bought 3 years ago before the major run up.

My point is, I'm not a RE expert by any means. It's all just dumb luck, but has worked out for us so far. Sometimes you win some and sometimes you lose.

You never know what the future holds; pick the right place for you and go for it.

Best of luck with the decision.

JP

[Chewbacca]

If you’re not really rich (oppo of me) and retiring why own a primary home? Invest money or buy a better RE asset on the upswing elsewhere for asset appreciation, and rent in FLA and call a landlord for all maintenance issues and eventually being underwater. Do a 10yr lease with protections if they sell it under you then rent in the Villages with its own Cardiac Center.

Owning your retirement dwelling is more psychological than rational.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

If you’re not really rich (oppo of me) and retiring why own a primary home? Invest money or buy a better RE asset on the upswing elsewhere for asset appreciation, and rent in FLA and call a landlord for all maintenance issues and eventually being underwater. Do a 10yr lease with protections if they sell it under you then rent in the Villages with its own Cardiac Center.

Owning your retirement dwelling is more psychological than rational.

This is great. Definitely worth evaluating. And definitely psychological here. That’s a great point.

And I learned the last few days that Grant Cardone is right. I’m not wealthy, I’m concerned. Not complaining. Very lucky. Very very. Grateful too.

But dang. I was so shockingly underwhelming in the market I was shopping in.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

If you’re not really rich (oppo of me) and retiring why own a primary home? Invest money or buy a better RE asset on the upswing elsewhere for asset appreciation, and rent in FLA and call a landlord for all maintenance issues and eventually being underwater. Do a 10yr lease with protections if they sell it under you then rent in the Villages with its own Cardiac Center.

Owning your retirement dwelling is more psychological than rational.

Originally Posted by superdog

This is great. Definitely worth evaluating. And definitely psychological here. That’s a great point.

And I learned the last few days that Grant Cardone is right. I’m not wealthy, I’m concerned. Not complaining. Very lucky. Very very. Grateful too.

But dang. I was so shockingly underwhelming in the market I was shopping in.

Every now and then when Chewie gets a good nights sleep and lays of the sauce, he comes up with a gem

[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Every now and then when Chewie gets a good nights sleep and lays of the sauce, he comes up with a gem

Iliana answered that one for me. I was getting another bottle from the wine cellar. But she says ‘tanks to the Mr TBone he’s smart nice man’.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Iliana answered that one for me. I was getting another bottle from the wine cellar. But she says ‘tanks to the Mr TBone he’s smart nice man’.

She's a keeper by the sounds of it

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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

If you’re not really rich (oppo of me) and retiring why own a primary home? Invest money or buy a better RE asset on the upswing elsewhere for asset appreciation, and rent in FLA and call a landlord for all maintenance issues and eventually being underwater. Do a 10yr lease with protections if they sell it under you then rent in the Villages with its own Cardiac Center.

Owning your retirement dwelling is more psychological than rational.

Be sure to double wrap with the grannies in the villages

[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Be sure to double wrap with the grannies in the villages

Jeebus!

[enjoythemusic]

+1 MrGoat and you should talk with him, deeeeep knowledge and on your side

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

+1 MrGoat and you should talk with him, deeeeep knowledge and on your side

You flatter me Steven!!


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