Your thoughts about current market and Rolex supply

[majidessa]

Hello everyone,

I am seeing a lot of evidence in the last few months that Rolex watches are becoming more accessible including some hot models. Some ADs (depending on location) are having problems selling some models and although the cases might look empty, the wait lists (real one) is no longer what it used to as demand has cooled significantly , and many are getting their watches sooner than expected.

I for one got a call recently for hot ss sport model after 4 months from placing my order which i was initially told it would take much longer, many of my friends are getting lucky as well.

I know that this is an old going debate, but I think that this community with its knowhow and strong ties may have a good insight regarding the current market status and the way it is headed in the next 12 months in terms of availability / scondry market prices.

Having said that, 2 things are expected to further impact current market, 1, the increase in production which Rolex is actively working on and 2, current economic and geo political conditions.

[OTX]

I think it has a lot to do with where you live as Rolex dealers tend to sell locally only. From my experience, in big cities there are really long waiting lists for the hot models and even the not so hot models. In the poorer parts of the country, I think it’s easier to get one even if you have to wait a little bit. In general though, I feel like the market has softened up a bit. Mostly because of Rolex increasing their production, the state of the economy and fear of the future. Many people are holding onto cash. Also frankly, many people are just plain sick of playing the Rolex wait list game.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Odat

I think it has a lot to do with where you live as Rolex dealers tend to sell locally only. From my experience, in big cities there are really long waiting lists for the hot models and even the not so hot models. In the poorer parts of the country, I think it’s easier to get one even if you have to wait a little bit. In general though, I feel like the market has softened up a bit. Mostly because of Rolex increasing their production, the state of the economy and fear of the future. Many people are holding onto cash. Also frankly, many people are just plain sick of playing the Rolex wait list game.

I DO think things are changing. Pre-owned prices have definitely come down, and rather dramatically for some models, but as you say location matters. Nothing has changed for my AD that I can tell. Still selling everything they get, and the local economy is still going great guns. We benefited from the post-Covid migration and my neck of the woods has continued to be a desirable area to move to, especially for upper-middle class people. I'm frankly more excited about the prospect of picking up a pre-owned PM model at a decent price in the next year or two from an online dealer, than I am about getting something from my AD.

[Frontal_Mystic]

Originally Posted by OTX

I think it has a lot to do with where you live as Rolex dealers tend to sell locally only. From my experience, in big cities there are really long waiting lists for the hot models and even the not so hot models. In the poorer parts of the country, I think it’s easier to get one even if you have to wait a little bit. In general though, I feel like the market has softened up a bit. Mostly because of Rolex increasing their production, the state of the economy and fear of the future. Many people are holding onto cash. Also frankly, many people are just plain sick of playing the Rolex wait list game.

From my experience, where I am at in the Midwest doesn't appear to be any better. I have been "on the waitlist" for over a year and was recently told by the nearest AD that it wasn't going to happen this year either. I, like others, feel like were being "pumped up" with false hope when there is never any real chance that we'll get our hands on an SS model- at least from an AD.

[Ceriano]

Originally Posted by Frontal_Mystic

From my experience, where I am at in the Midwest doesn't appear to be any better. I have been "on the waitlist" for over a year and was recently told by the nearest AD that it wasn't going to happen this year either. I, like others, feel like were being "pumped up" with false hope when there is never any real chance that we'll get our hands on an SS model- at least from an AD.

I like that this is your first and only post! Nicely done!

[lencap]

It seems that the "bubble has broken". Sentiment has changed from "gotta have it" to "I'm not sure I want it". It's the same in other markets - high end cars, other luxury goods.

I just got a 41mm DJ Oyster white dial after a very brief wait. I bought it as my daily wear watch, but I'm also mindful that in the last two years that watch price has increased over 11% from Rolex. I also live in a high sales tax state, and buying it added another 7.25% to the cost. So, looking back, I now have a watch that is about 20% higher in price on my wrist compared to 2 years ago. I'm pretty sure that if I try to resell it tomorrow I'm out of pocket that 20% price/tax cost.

That's not an earth shaking observation, but for similar money I could have bought a lot of other non-Rolex watches that have depreciated quite a bit over the last year or so.

[puma1552]

Manufactured scarcity will persist for about 12 months more than it should. That doesn't mean the part is over right now - wait lists are still very real - but believe me, as soon as inventories are up, don't expect dealers to show their cards - they will keep the cases empty and create an illusion of scarcity for a time long past when they should cut the crap.

Same as the auto industry, which is far closer to being at a point it should return to normal - dealers sticking their head in the sand about the party being over when interest rates are 7-8%. I'm seeing 2023 leftovers sitting on lots for a paltry $500 or maybe $1,000 off when 2024s are stacking up right next to them. Yeah, I'm not paying for the depreciation that occurred while it sat on your lot...pound sand.

[Rogerusp]

Originally Posted by majidessa

Hello everyone,

I am seeing a lot of evidence in the last few months that Rolex watches are becoming more accessible including some hot models. Some ADs (depending on location) are having problems selling some models and although the cases might look empty, the wait lists (real one) is no longer what it used to as demand has cooled significantly , and many are getting their watches sooner than expected.

I for one got a call recently for hot ss sport model after 4 months from placing my order which i was initially told it would take much longer, many of my friends are getting lucky as well.

I know that this is an old going debate, but I think that this community with its knowhow and strong ties may have a good insight regarding the current market status and the way it is headed in the next 12 months in terms of availability / scondry market prices.

Having said that, 2 things are expected to further impact current market, 1, the increase in production which Rolex is actively working on and 2, current economic and geo political conditions.

What hot models did you get offered if you don’t mind me asking?

[majidessa]

Originally Posted by Rogerusp

What hot models did you get offered if you don’t mind me asking?

A Batgirl, I have a collection of other Rolex watches that are considered in demand.
I'm not a walk-in customer, and I do have a relationship (i never bought a pm or other jewelry) but honestly I never had to wait more than 3 - 4 months. The AD would tell me from the start what is attainable and what is very hard to get.

For this example I was told the wait will be long up to 2 years!

[4reRlxGuy]

At my Socal AD the only change has been primarily 2 tone models becoming available.

[H25B]

Interest rates rising, economy slowing, and Covid trillions funneled into the economy drying up. People are pulling back.

I remember being offered a discount on a SS submariner in Hong Kong about 7 years ago. A anyone thinking it can’t go back to that is fooling themselves. Will it? Not sure, but it’s possible and a TON of watches are held in grey market inventory. There has ALWAYS been plenty of watches for everyone who actually wants to own and wear them.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by H25B

Interest rates rising, economy slowing, and Covid trillions funneled into the economy drying up. People are pulling back.

I remember being offered a discount on a SS submariner in Hong Kong about 7 years ago. A anyone thinking it can’t go back to that is fooling themselves. Will it? Not sure, but it’s possible and a TON of watches are held in grey market inventory. There has ALWAYS been plenty of watches for everyone who actually wants to own and wear them.

Interesting take.

Agree with economy being on precipice of downturn in the US (and already weakened globally).

Disagree with the “plenty” comments. About 60-80M people in the world that could easily afford any SS Rolex at retail. Easily. Expanded to those who could “afford” one as an aspirational purchase - over 700M.

Rolex has one of the two most immediately recognizable luxury brands on earth - the other being Ferrari at about 20x the entry point. 1M Rolexes produced annually … even not accounting for the splits of SS vs higher (less attainable) PM models, or all the multi-watch owners… the demand imbalance for the most highly sought models will not rectify. Of course the imbalance is also not as “bad” because there is a large portion of that wealth that doesn’t aspire towards watch ownership at all. But the growth in global wealth has far, far outstripped the growth of Rolex production over the past 30+ years.

For some models, greater balance is likely as part of this unwind. But keep in mind we’ve already seen some of this unwind globally. But Rolex watches are not plentiful vs what they represent to many.

[Calatrava r]

Aside from everything else going on at the moment, I think people were turned off by the long waits and many have moved on to other brands or something else.

[amh]

You don't need anyone's opinion. Just look at the stats for your favorite model and draw your own conclusions.

Handy site:
(Free - just search for your target model)
https://watchcharts.com/watch_model/...0blnr/overview

[Roger Lococco]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Aside from everything else going on at the moment, I think people were turned off by the long waits and many have moved on to other brands or something else.

Certainly more fun to collect cars ...

[Gargamel]

Not so long ago, selling a 10k Rolex for 50% premium was easy.
You just had to contact a reseller and you would have a 3 or 4k$ bonus with nothing else to do.

Now, the premium over a Sub is 20%, a bit more for a GMT. But resellers won't cash-in as easy as before. So you'll have to sell to individuals, which is a far more complex and risky thing.

Plus all other reasons...

It's still a good "investment", but in the long term only.

It's all for the best in the end

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco

Certainly more fun to collect cars ...

Sarcasm, I hope.

[H25B]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Interesting take.

Agree with economy being on precipice of downturn in the US (and already weakened globally).

Disagree with the “plenty” comments. About 60-80M people in the world that could easily afford any SS Rolex at retail. Easily. Expanded to those who could “afford” one as an aspirational purchase - over 700M.

Rolex has one of the two most immediately recognizable luxury brands on earth - the other being Ferrari at about 20x the entry point. 1M Rolexes produced annually … even not accounting for the splits of SS vs higher (less attainable) PM models, or all the multi-watch owners… the demand imbalance for the most highly sought models will not rectify. Of course the imbalance is also not as “bad” because there is a large portion of that wealth that doesn’t aspire towards watch ownership at all. But the growth in global wealth has far, far outstripped the growth of Rolex production over the past 30+ years.

For some models, greater balance is likely as part of this unwind. But keep in mind we’ve already seen some of this unwind globally. But Rolex watches are not plentiful vs what they represent to many.

There’s just too many watches circulating in the hands of dealers for me to believe it’s much more the the mere illusion of scarcity.

[Jasb]

They will keep it up as long as they can. Holding back inventory and all the other bs that’s been going on has driven up prices and made the SA folks very powerful. I’m pretty simple, have one Rolex and didn’t even want that one until I tried it on, but I’m still waiting on a no date simple sub.

[Tim Plains]

The car market is returning to normal, I saw a commercial for 0.99% financing for F-150s just yesterday, Porsche values are dropping drastically. I'd say Rolex will follow suit soon enough.

[thenewrick]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

The car market is returning to normal, I saw a commercial for 0.99% financing for F-150s just yesterday, Porsche values are dropping drastically. I'd say Rolex will follow suit soon enough.

I hope this is true. The car market has been nuts. I've been eyeing a midlife crisis Porsche for years but they just went nuts with pricing and allocations and markups.

The MSRP alone is pretty silly. Dealers are asking $150k for entry level 911's. Like cmon. These aren't 12 cylinder Ferrari's folks.

EV's and Lux Trux are whole nother can of worms. Happy to see Lux Trux on a slow decline and EV's coming down to earth. Same story with bad dealers marking things up to stupid levels. Looked at Hyundai EV's and dealer was marking up $45k cars to $57k. smh

I need 0% APR on a 2nd gen EV truck and Porsche Targa 4s with a manual transmission and maybe a little cash on the hood. Then I'm a buyer!

I think in reality not much will change from where it's at right now, watches, cars, houses, money, etc. Economy is strong, unemployment is low, relatively peaceful relations and supply lines again for manufacturing. I think the next 5-10 years will be a lot like 2023.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

The car market is returning to normal, I saw a commercial for 0.99% financing for F-150s just yesterday, Porsche values are dropping drastically. I'd say Rolex will follow suit soon enough.

Drastic drops - maybe a question of definition?

Just checked BAT and compared to my insurance coverage for one of my Porsches (997.2 4S manual). My coverage was increased to market near the height of the bubble. $85k for a 40,000 mile, great condition, highly demanded spec sheet. Asks at that time (though admittedly a less common car, maybe 5 comps listed nationally) - about $100-$110k. A less desirable but similar car, 50% MORE mileage, just sold on BAT this month for $72k. Given mileage, it easily puts my car around $80-$85k. BAT usually transacts at higher end of market so I’ll call my car $80k as it sits. Not exactly a dramatic decline.

Newer Porsches… well, I received my allocation for a GT4 back in 2016 or so. At the time they were in high enough demand that I could have flipped my allocation for a 20-25%+ immediate profit. In 2016…

I see Porsche prices cooling, though less so for the truly more desirable, mid-tier collectible cars (like my manual 997.2 4S coupe). Perhaps more so for any moderns trading above msrp well into 6 figures. I don’t see any big declines unless we have a protracted recession. That is unlikely as the Fed now has significant dry powder after this rapid rate increase cycle. Any real downturn will take the legs our of inflation and will allow for a rate cut. Especially during an election year.

The sports car market, watches, long list of various collectibles. All have segments that have been hit pretty hard already. Plenty areas of continued resilience, however. Doesn’t feel like a buyer’s market right now for most areas but we may get there in the next few months. I am pretty indifferent one way or the other.

[Tim Plains]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Drastic drops - maybe a question of definition?

JayEmm made a good video about it with multiple examples that start at 21:30 if you don't want to watch the entire thing. He references new vehicles and flippers, which like Rolex, is where all the hype/problem is.

Rolex wise, like you, I am impartial. I follow the market value of my Submariner out of curiosity only. AD purchase of $12,150 CDN out the door (13% sales tax stings). I saw them peak at $23,500 and come back down to the current mid $17,000 range. I'm actually glad they dropped and would like to see them drop more because that means less of the flipper / investment crowd. In my opinion, none of these new stainless steel models (or new cars) should trade for above MSRP.

https://youtu.be/Q8T4tq8Sc4Q?si=qie3yl3NTNj4Jbq6

[njlam]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...ear-lows-video

This video and the reports of an increasing number of people getting "the call" on this website, the only real evidence of the market cooling is my being offered some gold DD40s last month I did not want.

The unavailability of the models I want is frustrating (Batman and 40mm PlayDate) and has given me the opportunity to look at other manufacturers.

I have relationships with 4 ADs in different parts of the country with relationships that range from good to distant.

In the two years I have been waiting, I have purchased five watches:
Panerai 233 GMT
Omega Speedmaster 3861
Rolex WG DJ with OEM leather strap (preowned)
Baltic Aquascape
JLC Reverso

Unfortunately none of these watches were, or could have been purchased from a Rolex AD.

It has been great to learn about the history, traditions and nuances of other watch brands. I have some Cartier Tanks and Grand Seiko Spring Drives on my list.

While I hope I get the Rolex's on my list, the waiting is a huge turn off. In my case, Rolex's inability to sell me a new watch is their problem.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by njlam

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...ear-lows-video

This video and the reports of an increasing number of people getting "the call" on this website, the only real evidence of the market cooling is my being offered some gold DD40s last month I did not want.

The unavailability of the models I want is frustrating (Batman and 40mm PlayDate) and has given me the opportunity to look at other manufacturers.

I have relationships with 4 ADs in different parts of the country with relationships that range from good to distant.

In the two years I have been waiting, I have purchased five watches:
Panerai 233 GMT
Omega Speedmaster 3861
Rolex WG DJ with OEM leather strap (preowned)
Baltic Aquascape
JLC Reverso

Unfortunately none of these watches were, or could have been purchased from a Rolex AD.

It has been great to learn about the history, traditions and nuances of other watch brands. I have some Cartier Tanks and Grand Seiko Spring Drives on my list.

While I hope I get the Rolex's on my list, the waiting is a huge turn off. In my case, Rolex's inability to sell me a new watch is their problem.

That 233 is a great watch! I found mine to be one of the most enjoyable watches to wear!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tely]

The long wait for a piece has been one of the major issues with acquiring one. So it’s no surprise if people go for other assessible brands.

[168000]

It is nice to hear and read ADs get more watches. Unfortunately it is not what I see. I am waiting for a DJ 36 flutted oyster since early July. The AD told me they have no clue when it will come. I keep faith

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by 168000

It is nice to hear and read ADs get more watches. Unfortunately it is not what I see. I am waiting for a DJ 36 flutted oyster since early July. The AD told me they have no clue when it will come. I keep faith

You can buy that piece today and wear it tomorrow for less than what you would pay at your AD.

Rolex AD is still clearing the years long waiting lists and is catching last window lickers to sell them slow movers that nobody wants on the open market.

[~JJ]

Watch collecting jumped the shark, to use an outdated expression. Like anything that gets super popular relatively quickly… people go bananas for a product > all of sudden everyone is an “expert” from watching endless YouTube videos > social takes the lifestyle to critical mass > people get burned out since watch manufacturers evolve slowly, pissed off clients with their games > very expensive trinkets no longer make them feel special since they had to hoard every hot model within 24months and everyone has pretty much the same modern pieces > free money dries up so why buy trinkets that no longer feel special > time to find new hobby that is fresh.

[thenewrick]

Watches and Rolex were sort of the hype thing from 2019-2023 but I think it'll just become less of a cultural thing going forward. Likely greater of a thing than it was before 2019, but never hyped up to where it was at the peak of 2022.

I expect availability and prices to hover around where they were 2018-2019 before hype and covid/cryto money went bananas.

I can get pretty much any reference I want with a modest wait. But there isn't much I'm really interested in these days. Waiting to see what comes in the future and shopping vintage mostly. Vintage prices haven't dropped as fast as modern Rolex like Pepsi, white dial Daytona, Hulk etc.