Dow 50k

[avidflyer]

Coming soon…50k….The higher we go, the harder the fall will be. I don’t see it, but understand don’t fight it.

[enjoythemusic]

Sure, makes sense as would a Mcdonald's "Happy Meal" being $10. i remember when new homes costs $50,000 for 2400 sq/ft on a 1/3 acre lot in a nice safe neighborhood with excellent quality schools nearby.

Note: A Happy Meal was less than $1 at one point in time. So be sure to account for the value of the currency versus DOW as priced in said currency.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Sure, makes sense as would a Mcdonald's "Happy Meal" being $10. i remember when new homes costs $50,000 for 2400 sq/ft on a 1/3 acre lot in a nice safe neighborhood with excellent quality schools nearby.

Note: A Happy Meal was less than $1 at one point in time. So be sure to account for the value of the currency versus DOW as priced in said currency.

I remember you calling the devaluation of the dollar a long time ago.

I didn't really understand what you were saying.

I do now.

I read something the other day..."your home is not worth more than it was, your money is worth less".

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by superdog

I read something the other day..."your home is not worth more than it was, your money is worth less".

Am truly hoping kids learn math and how to apply it for practical living. Imho it's not difficult at all, though teachers should be more focussed.... imho.

BTW, simple math applied:

_n1.jpg
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Bonus Question: Did average wages go up during this time period to EQUAL the increased 'cost of living'?
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[superdog]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Am truly hoping kids learn math and how to apply it for practical living. Imho it's not difficult at all, though teachers should be more focussed.... imho.

BTW, simple math applied:

Attachment 1425994
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Bonus Question: Did average wages go up during this time period to EQUAL the increased 'cost of living'?
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Yes sir. While the math is simple, the example has a flaw. And not what the quote was referring to.

That same And costs more money. Not because the value of the house went up. But because the value of the money went down.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by superdog

Yes sir. While the math is simple, the example has a flaw. And not what the quote was referring to.

Apolgies, you are correct i provided the incorrect example / answer.

Since the Fed is still targeting 2% annual currency devaluation (a.k.a. "inflation"), which is a staggering ~25% currency devaluation every 10 years.... Time itself will sort this all out, eventually.

That same and costs more money. Not because the value of the house went up. But because the value of the money went down.

Agreed. Too bad there is no stable central bank currency, one which is truly stable and does not gain or lose purchasing power / value. That is the USA's Fed Res central banking system mandate oer congress, and wit the Fed not adhered to it is many decades it is time Congress acts, but we know how these things go (and want to avoid getting into things TRF prefers we not discuss).

Originally Posted by V25V

I do not disagree. I think we all for the most part feel like something has to give but geesh.....

Give it time. Currency war or real war, it'll sort itself out... eventually. This is why the truly wealthy ensure they have items of intrinsic value (rare paintings, cars, historical items of value, etc).

During the 2007/08 banking / financial scam, Evelyn de Rothschild said during a CNBC interview that for safety you hold on to gold bars. It is interesting to know that Central Banks are still purchasing gold bars too

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Am truly hoping kids learn math and how to apply it for practical living. Imho it's not difficult at all, though teachers should be more focussed.... imho.

BTW, simple math applied:

Attachment 1425994
.
.
Bonus Question: Did average wages go up during this time period to EQUAL the increased 'cost of living'?
.
.

These are just statistics based off the masses a few chose not to be part of such.

[Letsgodiving]

In 2017 Warren Buffett predicted the Dow would be over 1 million in a hundred years. It is well ahead of schedule so far.

To just reach 1 million the CAGR would be significantly lower than the previous 100 years.

[brandrea]

Not the best chart but you get the idea …

If you believe in the capital markets they always trend up.

What’s really interesting to me is to take a view from a long time horizon as below.

Some of us here are old enough to remember “Black Monday” and the “tech bubble” etc.

At the time, these events seemed catastrophic but over time, they are just a blip on the radar.





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[superdog]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

Coming soon…50k….The higher we go, the harder the fall will be. I don’t see it, but understand don’t fight it.

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

I'm seeing same things. Accounts receivables are piling up, more invoices past due, tenants are needing more time to pay rents.

I'm not sure how student loan forgiveness is ongoing if the SC ruled that it was unconstitutional....

[Easy E]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

Straight up.

[saxo3]

Originally Posted by superdog

…The government is giving away billions in foreign aid…

More specific?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by saxo3

More specific?

I appreciate the ask. Respectfully, I was vague on purpose to avoid breaking the rules.

I was going to leave it out, but felt it was an important aspect of the financial situation in the US.

Suffice to say, we have big issues here. And we send a lot of money to others. I’m all for helping. But if we are broken here, it’s hard to help anyone long term.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by saxo3

More specific?

Just one example.




https://www.reuters.com/business/env...en-2021-11-02/

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[saxo3]

Originally Posted by Krash

Just one example.




https://www.reuters.com/business/env...en-2021-11-02/

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You are lucky that you changed your post before I answered …

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

Really?? I don't visit tattoo parlors but every restaurant, grocery store [apples & oranges I know], liquor store, bike shop, and such are busy as hell and all with help wanted signs.
dP

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

Really?? I don't visit tattoo parlors but every restaurant, grocery store [not apples & oranges I know], liquor store, bike shop, and such are busy as hell and all with help wanted signs.
dP

This is true too. There is a dichotomy for sure.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

Really?? I don't visit tattoo parlors but every restaurant, grocery store [apples & oranges I know], liquor store, bike shop, and such are busy as hell and all with help wanted signs.
dP

Im glad you are seeing that.

I see it too with restaurants. But I think they soon will be hardest hit. Travel will be next in line.

Grocery stores…not really comparable. People have to eat.

Liquor stores I’m not in much. But they flourish in good and bad economic conditions.

I’m in the tri state area. I’m not sure where you are. Everyone I talk to has seen a major decline in business.

I have an office in California as well. They see it there too.

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by superdog

Im glad you are seeing that.

I see it too with restaurants. But I think they soon will be hardest hit. Travel will be next in line.

Grocery stores…not really comparable. People have to eat.

Liquor stores I’m not in much. But they flourish in good and bad economic conditions.

I’m in the tri state area. I’m not sure where you are. Everyone I talk to has seen a major decline in business.

I have an office in California as well. They see it there too.

I'm in a tristate area as well [KY, OH, IN] and things seem to be firing on all cylinders. That includes contractors which I recently found while getting quotes for some deck repair.
dP

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

I'm in a tristate area as well [KY, OH, IN] and things seem to be firing on all cylinders. That includes contractors which I recently found while getting quotes for some deck repair.
dP

I’m glad to hear it.

And while I realize I included some anecdotal examples, from what I gather the devaluation of the dollar is happening all over the country. The inability to buy a home is happening too. Inflation is far exceeding wage increases. Cars are being repossessed and many folks are way under water.

Consumer credit card debt is at its highest level ever. The national debt too.

There are many examples outside of tattoos shops and bike shops.

The markets are rising on the banks of a very select few massive companies.

These are facts.

That you see all this spending in and of itself is concerning.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I am. But it feels to me this has been brewing a very long time. And it started with, or rather was exacerbated by, the super low interest rates.

I hope we keep going. I’m smiling at 4:00 everyday. But I’m also prepared for if I’m right.

[DocHorton]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

I think this is location dependent. In Texas it is the opposite. Everything is busy, businesses are doing great, restaurants are packed, new construction everywhere. DFW alone added 150k residents last year.

Seems like the economic and governmental policies of certain states actually make a difference.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Am truly hoping kids learn math and how to apply it for practical living. Imho it's not difficult at all, though teachers should be more focussed.... imho.

BTW, simple math applied:

Attachment 1425994
.
.
Bonus Question: Did average wages go up during this time period to EQUAL the increased 'cost of living'?
.
.

Where is the same house actually costing less than it did in 2021? I remember paying a mortgage with a 9 handle many moons ago. Fortunate enough to refinance a few times.

Originally Posted by DocHorton

I think this is location dependent. In Texas it is the opposite. Everything is busy, businesses are doing great, restaurants are packed, new construction everywhere. DFW alone added 150k residents last year.

Seems like the economic and governmental policies of certain states actually make a difference.

There's definitely a migratory shift based on where you live. I read an article the other day that the average house in Socal was just under $1m and the household income to afford it would have to be $275k a year... insane amounts for people who are just starting out or a young family.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by DocHorton

I think this is location dependent. In Texas it is the opposite. Everything is busy, businesses are doing great, restaurants are packed, new construction everywhere. DFW alone added 150k residents last year.

Seems like the economic and governmental policies of certain states actually make a difference.

good point. it sure does feel like that in certain ways.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by superdog

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

I feel like we have been saying this for about 3 years now.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by V25V

I feel like we have been saying this for about 3 years now.

What I’m unclear on is the catastrophic part.

Even people who are stretched thin have a lot of “stuff” already. Sure, much of what they own is on credit, but there is also a decent equity cushion too. Lower income wage growth has risen sharply.

The biggest mitigating factor is we finally have a reset in rates to higher levels. There is now a real lever to pull should we need to - this mitigated the near and medium term catastrophe risk substantially. Nevermind the higher income and net worth groups that have tremendous assets.

Consider how so many of us have allocations into fixed income products now - as hedges to risk. Consider now if there is a large market correction, how that will be re-allocated…

The real risks are more government / fiscal in nature. Even there we see situations where greater overall debt (consumer plus governmental) with far less productive assets / weaker capitalist frameworks, manage to avoid reasonable definitions of outright catastrophe…

So I see a correction coming but timing remains uncertain, duration unlikely to be sustained and magnitude limited. Of course in some bubble segments a bigger drop is probable, but generally speaking I’m not worried about doomsday economic outcomes.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

What I’m unclear on is the catastrophic part.

Even people who are stretched thin have a lot of “stuff” already. Sure, much of what they own is on credit, but there is also a decent equity cushion too. Lower income wage growth has risen sharply.

The biggest mitigating factor is we finally have a reset in rates to higher levels. There is now a real lever to pull should we need to - this mitigated the near and medium term catastrophe risk substantially. Nevermind the higher income and net worth groups that have tremendous assets.

Consider how so many of us have allocations into fixed income products now - as hedges to risk. Consider now if there is a large market correction, how that will be re-allocated…

The real risks are more government / fiscal in nature. Even there we see situations where greater overall debt (consumer plus governmental) with far less productive assets / weaker capitalist frameworks, manage to avoid reasonable definitions of outright catastrophe…

So I see a correction coming but timing remains uncertain, duration unlikely to be sustained and magnitude limited. Of course in some bubble segments a bigger drop is probable, but generally speaking I’m not worried about doomsday economic outcomes.

I am not an economist or have a great level of finance competency. But all I know is we have had people talk about some big fallout for years now and nothing big has happened. Part of me thinks something has to give and adjust the markets but I dont know, just been hearing it for so long that ive become numb to it. Someone else posted the graph showing the tech crisis, sub prime loans debacle, black monday and such, they are really just blips on the radar in the grand scheme of things. So I just keep investing as I normally would and know the storm will pass if one does come.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by V25V

I am not an economist or have a great level of finance competency. But all I know is we have had people talk about some big fallout for years now and nothing big has happened. Part of me thinks something has to give and adjust the markets but I dont know, just been hearing it for so long that ive become numb to it. Someone else posted the graph showing the tech crisis, sub prime loans debacle, black monday and such, they are really just blips on the radar in the grand scheme of things. So I just keep investing as I normally would and know the storm will pass if one does come.

Im actually starting to feel the same.

And doing the same in regard to investing new funds. But the funds I have already are safe. Keeping it that way.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by V25V

I am not an economist or have a great level of finance competency. But all I know is we have had people talk about some big fallout for years now and nothing big has happened. Part of me thinks something has to give and adjust the markets but I dont know, just been hearing it for so long that ive become numb to it. Someone else posted the graph showing the tech crisis, sub prime loans debacle, black monday and such, they are really just blips on the radar in the grand scheme of things. So I just keep investing as I normally would and know the storm will pass if one does come.

It is interesting but in my experience most economists do a lousy job of understanding markets. They fail to understand how markets react to information and how valuation fundamentally works. There are exceptions, of course, and they are noteworthy in my opinion. I will put one name out there - Jeremy Siegel. Some call him a perma-bull but he clearly isn’t. He just recognizes that over longer periods of time, equities tend to do well. This is similar to Buffett, who is rather conservative in some ways and yet aggressive at the same time. I tune out the perma-bears or the cheerleaders (eg Cathy Wood, Tom Lee, virtually any crypto evangelist).

Michael Burry is worth listening to. Often wrong in conclusions but sound analysis - one of those whose views are worth my attention, even if I ultimately disagree.

As for staying the course, I think over most extended (but reasonable) modern periods this is the right strategy. There is also the value of matching strategy to your own psychology. Being constantly stressed over risks, even if rationally the risks are well considered and balanced, is not a good way to live life. The purpose of wealth (my opinion) is to enhance enjoyment / happiness. If the path to get there is miserable, it is pretty irrational…

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by V25V

I am not an economist or have a great level of finance competency. But all I know is we have had people talk about some big fallout for years now and nothing big has happened. Part of me thinks something has to give and adjust the markets but I dont know, just been hearing it for so long that ive become numb to it. Someone else posted the graph showing the tech crisis, sub prime loans debacle, black monday and such, they are really just blips on the radar in the grand scheme of things. So I just keep investing as I normally would and know the storm will pass if one does come.

My philosophy as well.
dP