Current gray market for 16202st

[Atmwireless]

What is the current market price for a 16202st brand new

Is it in the low 60k in the gray market?

Thinking about picking one up once it hits 60k

[In-N-Out]

I recommend waiting. Pretty sure it’s already near $60k on MODA. But I expect it to reach $50k in the next 12 months.

Currently about $40k retail with sales tax in CA. With another round or 2 of price increases, I can see it go for $43-45k retail in 12-24 months. With market prices already at $60k, and trending down towards high $50s, the margins for flippers is so laughably low that demand will plummet the price further to low $50s. I think prices will stabilize at high $40s or low $50s long term, which is a very small premium over future retail price in usd.


Edit: Just checked moda. Lots of people asking mid $60s since may/June lol and not moving. So I think $60k is def a fair market price. Probably even lower

[Atmwireless]

Oh oh oh, I like I like. Maybe I should set the goal to 50 lolllll

I called my gray dealer and he told me 70k which I thought was too high

[In-N-Out]

Originally Posted by Atmwireless

Oh oh oh, I like I like. Maybe I should set the goal to 50 lolllll

I called my gray dealer and he told me 70k which I thought was too high

lol. I think anything above retail is too high, but for a jumbo, I wouldn't mind paying slightly over retail especially if it was a one and done AP

but yea I recommend you wait until prices fall further

[vakman]

I was quoted in Euros around 67K for a new one.

[0nly5iv3Digits]

They’ve fallen by almost 50% from the highs.

[APhound]

I wouldn’t let mine go for 70..


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[Vince_76]

2019, right before covid, 15202 was trading around 38k. Of course, retail was significantly lower back then and times have changed, but I think prices will continue to revert to the main trendline. Agree that it’ll probably settle in the mid $40k range in the next year or so

[0nly5iv3Digits]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

2019, right before covid, 15202 was trading around 38k. Of course, retail was significantly lower back then and times have changed, but I think prices will continue to revert to the main trendline. Agree that it’ll probably settle in the mid $40k range in the next year or so

Yes - mean-reversion is real!

[dauster]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

2019, right before covid, 15202 was trading around 38k. Of course, retail was significantly lower back then and times have changed, but I think prices will continue to revert to the main trendline. Agree that it’ll probably settle in the mid $40k range in the next year or so

If it reverts back to mid 40s I can finally pull the trigger on the 16202 - that would be amazing


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[Watchman001]

It’ll never get that low. AP is going to limit production to keep it a unicorn. I haven’t seen a TS have one of these in quite some time.

[PT_91]

Originally Posted by Watchman001

It’ll never get that low. AP is going to limit production to keep it a unicorn. I haven’t seen a TS have one of these in quite some time.

Is that so? I had the impression that there were quite a few Jumbo incomings recently.

[In-N-Out]

Originally Posted by Watchman001

It’ll never get that low. AP is going to limit production to keep it a unicorn. I haven’t seen a TS have one of these in quite some time.

AP only makes 3000 new jumbos every year. That’s nothing compared to the volume already in circulation. If greys, flippers, and even collectors start to sell as soon the broader economy dips, it can be a free fall and there’s nothing AP can do about that. At that point, we will have much bigger problems than RO jumbo prices dipping. Hopefully this doesn’t happen.

What’s TS? Trusted seller? There are several on moda sitting for months at mid 60s as previously mentioned.

[Watchman001]

Originally Posted by In-N-Out

AP only makes 3000 new jumbos every year. That’s nothing compared to the volume already in circulation. If greys, flippers, and even collectors start to sell as soon the broader economy dips, it can be a free fall and there’s nothing AP can do about that. At that point, we will have much bigger problems than RO jumbo prices dipping. Hopefully this doesn’t happen.

What’s TS? Trusted seller? There are several on moda sitting for months at mid 60s as previously mentioned.

Yes, Trusted Sellers, not Moda. I am not on Moda, but out here in the real world (since Moda is a by invite only closed group), I have not seen a 16202st for sale in a long time. Several on Moda is also not a lot. There are lots of 15202s out there from many years, but 16202s are new watches and AP will likely keep them very scarce. That’s my guess anyway.

[Verticalforce]

Jumbo is used to retain boutique buyers in building their 5 watches collection..

If Jumbo falls below retail, then the game falls apart. Normal RO will be severely below retail if that is the case. It may happen, but not so soon, as there is still a lot of easy money in the market. A trigger like the absolute collapse of the stock market will be needed.

[Uros]

Retail price is already crazy high. Bought mine (15202) in 2017 for 18k eur. It is beautiful watch with ideal proportions and tons of history but dont think its worth anywhere near 50k plus. Although agree it will be difficult to expect it will go below retail any time soon but some 30, 40 perc premium may be reasonable. It is only AP you will ever need plus some fun offshore.


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[SpeedyTuomas]

IMO seems to go up and down with the SS Nautiluses and Daytonas. A 100% premium seems okayish and would personally still not part ways with mine.

[Benzsiam]

I don’t think 16202st will ever go below $50k.

[cbalster]

I expect over time 15202ST will be worth more than the 16202st. The 15202ST will be like the Porsche 993, last of the air cooled. 15202ST, last of the AP 2121.

[CarForHire]

I don’t know, I could see that among enthusiasts but the modern person would never want a 15202 if they could have the 16202. I personally never cared enough for the quicker date set function since it’s not a complication.

[Bach609]

You will care once you see it's a nightmare to change the date.. I don't know if it worth +10k, but the mouvement is overall nicer on the 16202.

I really don't see it going under 50/55k anytime soon, the number of wealthy people should grow very fast in the coming few years (according to a few forecasts), so I am not really worried for brans like AP, as well as grey market.

[cbalster]

Originally Posted by Bach609

You will care once you see it's a nightmare to change the date.. I don't know if it worth +10k, but the mouvement is overall nicer on the 16202.

I really don't see it going under 50/55k anytime soon, the number of wealthy people should grow very fast in the coming few years (according to a few forecasts), so I am not really worried for brans like AP, as well as grey market.

I have the AP 15202 winding tool, that problem is solved.

[CactusTreeFiddy]

Originally Posted by cbalster

I have the AP 15202 winding tool, that problem is solved.

This is what's known as a "kludge"

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Bach609

You will care once you see it's a nightmare to change the date..

It really isn't, you can turn back and forth from 10 to 2 to quickly set the date. Or just get a winder.

[Verticalforce]

Originally Posted by 7sins

It really isn't, you can turn back and forth from 10 to 2 to quickly set the date. Or just get a winder.

Yeah i dont get people who complaint on not having quick set! The semi quick set like you mentioned is faster than setting on GMT! I don’t see people complaining it’s too difficult to set date on Rolex Pepsi..
It seems people are just regurgitating comments from others vs actual experience. If you own a 15202 and not use the semi quick set feature then whyyyy??? It’s in the manual for god sake.

[cbalster]

Originally Posted by Verticalforce

Yeah i dont get people who complaint on not having quick set! The semi quick set like you mentioned is faster than setting on GMT! I don’t see people complaining it’s too difficult to set date on Rolex Pepsi..
It seems people are just regurgitating comments from others vs actual experience. If you own a 15202 and not use the semi quick set feature then whyyyy??? It’s in the manual for god sake.

the winding crown on the 15202 is a real PITA. it is tiny and sharp and so winding really isn't fun. Even with the 10pm-2pm method to set the date, it's tiresome and not fun, especially if you have to go more than 10 days forward or all the way around. the 15202 winding tool is an essential IMO as it solves for this.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by cbalster

the winding crown on the 15202 is a real PITA. it is tiny and sharp and so winding really isn't fun. Even with the 10pm-2pm method to set the date, it's tiresome and not fun, especially if you have to go more than 10 days forward or all the way around. the 15202 winding tool is an essential IMO as it solves for this.

FYI, if the crown is too small for, I presume, your enormous hands, they make a winding tool to solve for the issue.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Verticalforce

Yeah i dont get people who complaint on not having quick set! The semi quick set like you mentioned is faster than setting on GMT! I don’t see people complaining it’s too difficult to set date on Rolex Pepsi..
It seems people are just regurgitating comments from others vs actual experience. If you own a 15202 and not use the semi quick set feature then whyyyy??? It’s in the manual for god sake.

Totally agree with you here. The Rolex GMT II (my personal favourite Professional Rolex) is a PITA to set.

No issue here with my 16202ST however

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by Bach609

You will care once you see it's a nightmare to change the date.. I don't know if it worth +10k, but the mouvement is overall nicer on the 16202.

I really don't see it going under 50/55k anytime soon, the number of wealthy people should grow very fast in the coming few years (according to a few forecasts), so I am not really worried for brans like AP, as well as grey market.

Surely your valet takes care of these minor things for you

[NYG1121]

The non-quick set date is a non-issue. It actually adds charm to the whole watch and gives it a vintage feel. I have the winding tool but dont use it as it is easy enough with 10-2 method and doesn’t take very long.