Antagonist view :: Patek is in worse position compared to AP

[messikens]

Ok so hear my theory out why PP is in a worse market position vs AP at the moment (and notwithstanding the legacy chops of being THE brand):

1. While PP/TS pretended that it didn't want to become the nautilus company, effectively it had been that way for 6+ years at this point, where most purchases were propping up the desire to get one or more Naut/Aqua allocations eventually while taking a hit

2. Most true halo pieces (chime, handpaint, grand comp) are so expensive and so far out from a customer perspective that their relevance is diminished

3. The large in between in the catalogue is both WAY more expensive for MSRP and WAY discounted vs AP in the secondary market

4. Therefore TS really only had the option of creating a fake proxy halo watch (that is $10k more expensive than the Naut - mainly to get people getting used to the inflated MSRPs for all their other watches) while further reducing supply of the true Halo Naut watch... Both in order to ensure people buy their "take a terrible hit immediately" in-between catalogue pieces

While AP I would venture has by and large more "desirable" regular models and more palatable prices and the MSRP hit is not as pronounced as PP for most of them


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[cascavel]

I don't see it. PP still has the Aquanaut line and the 5811 along with whatever other Nautilus they still make. The Cubitus will sell out without any problem.
AP has an old and limited product line that new collectors like and older collectors already have.

[1William]

Maybe. I have never been a fan of PP or AP for varying reasons but do acknowledge them as good brands. My AD is a PP AD and it is funny to watch the preening owners and buyers of the brand. I go to most, if not all, of the events at the AD and I always enjoy the PP events for the comic relief of interacting with the owners and fans of the brand. The arrogance of PP starts with Mr. Stern and transcends down the line. I believe PP will be sold in the near future to LVMH or the like and we will then see a much different company. Maybe better but probably not. AP has done well chasing the dollar and are basically a one trick company with some variation.

[John Doyle]

With AP, my 15400 is enough - i don't need to buy anything else. Maybe a Code if they really come up with a great dial / complication that is not uber expensive (maybe smaller size too). Wish they still had the millenary / jules audemars lines so they could experiment with them.

With PP, you truly have countless models you could aspire to purchase, which really look different. The chase is more than half the fun in watch acquisition so I don't mind waiting while trying to save up for the next big purchase I plan, regardless of the delta between the sports models / complications and grand complications. Again it's a just a watch, if i'm not happy, i can take my business elsewhere.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by John Doyle

With AP, my 15400 is enough - i don't need to buy anything else. Maybe a Code if they really come up with a great dial / complication that is not uber expensive (maybe smaller size too). Wish they still had the millenary / jules audemars lines so they could experiment with them.

With PP, you truly have countless models you could aspire to purchase, which really look different. The chase is more than half the fun in watch acquisition so I don't mind waiting while trying to save up for the next big purchase I plan, regardless of the delta between the sports models / complications and grand complications. Again it's a just a watch, if i'm not happy, i can take my business elsewhere.

well, except there is no chase after any PP other than nautilus or aquanaut. if ADs don't want to sell to you you find under retail easily. literally, PP has become the nautilus/aquanaut company, the rest of the collection sells as bait for those two lines.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by pam66

well, except there is no chase after any PP other than nautilus or aquanaut. if ADs don't want to sell to you you find under retail easily. literally, PP has become the nautilus/aquanaut company, the rest of the collection sells as bait for those two lines.

yeah have to agree, it's really telling when you rarely see any patek outside of the nautilus/aquanaut on celebs/athletes. if they're wearing watches on straps it's usually some cartier or RM

my hot take is that most of patek's complications/dress watches are just too big. also doesn't help that we're trending towards smaller watches now, especially when it comes to dressier watches, because of the huge cartier craze that started this year

you can just scroll through this page on instagram and see that it's mostly all nautilus when it comes to patek
https://www.instagram.com/insaneluxurylife/

[pam66]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah have to agree, it's really telling when you rarely see any patek outside of the nautilus/aquanaut on celebs/athletes. if they're wearing watches on straps it's usually some cartier or RM

my hot take is that most of patek's complications/dress watches are just too big. also doesn't help that we're trending towards smaller watches now, especially when it comes to dressier watches, because of the huge cartier craze that started this year

you can just scroll through this page on instagram and see that it's mostly all nautilus when it comes to patek
https://www.instagram.com/insaneluxurylife/

yeah except mark wahlberg, who has all watches of the universe:::)))

[huncho]

Originally Posted by pam66

yeah except mark wahlberg, who has all watches of the universe:::)))

yeah already had the cubitus earlier this week lol

[crispyness87]

Originally Posted by pam66

well, except there is no chase after any PP other than nautilus or aquanaut. if ADs don't want to sell to you you find under retail easily. literally, PP has become the nautilus/aquanaut company, the rest of the collection sells as bait for those two lines.

I think this is a high quality post and hits the nail on the head.
The fact is that we live in an era where sports watches are all the craze. Let’s put aside the minority niche collector that collects dress watches. Difference between AP and Patek is that AP fully (and openly) embraces that fact, and pivots their catalogue to current tastes. Patek (and TS in particular) however provides mixed messaging which I find disingenuous.

PP is a NAUT/aqua company. The rest of their lines are under retail.

[APhound]

I don’t think they’re a nautilus company.. I have a 5711 as well as a 5968 and 5164r- awesome watches- but nothing compared to the real watches.


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[Gelateria]

Crazy take saying AP has a larger desirable regular models.
As shitty as TS is, the classics and complication models from patek comfortably exceed what ap has.
Hell, Ap doesn't even have a classic and basic dress watch

[ikoh76]

Originally Posted by Gelateria

Crazy take saying AP has a larger desirable regular models.
As shitty as TS is, the classics and complication models from patek comfortably exceed what ap has.
Hell, Ap doesn't even have a classic and basic dress watch

I'd argue there are exquisite pieces in Edward Piguet line...

[Gelateria]

Originally Posted by ikoh76

I'd argue there are exquisite pieces in Edward Piguet line...

He said regular. I don't think EP is an active line now?
And yea they do have some nice stuff there, but if you are going vintage you aren't really serious suggesting ap has more good stuff than pp right...?

[APhound]

I think AP does a great job of keeping their line exciting. I’ve never gotten bored and love 95% of what they do. Love the brand and love wearing their watches.
Both PP and AP know what they’re doing, they’re the top 2 period.



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[codecow]

Originally Posted by APhound

I think AP does a great job of keeping their line exciting. I’ve never gotten bored and love 95% of what they do. Love the brand and love wearing their watches.
Both PP and AP know what they’re doing, they’re the top 2 period.



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Hah I have been debating trading out some Patek and Rolex I have in the safe for that exact reference.

[APhound]

Originally Posted by codecow

Hah I have been debating trading out some Patek and Rolex I have in the safe for that exact reference.

I traded three watches for it. You should do it. It’s incredible. Just do it


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[codecow]

Originally Posted by APhound

I traded three watches for it. You should do it. It’s incredible. Just do it


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I found this post very enabling!!!

[NYG1121]

AP is a one trick pony. PP is not. We should really appreciate that otherwise things would be very boring.

[ChetBaker]

I rate VC more than AP. I wish they’d kill the Code and get back to making proper dress watches.

[Pfang56]

Originally Posted by messikens

Ok so hear my theory out why PP is in a worse market position vs AP at the moment (and notwithstanding the legacy chops of being THE brand):

1. While PP/TS pretended that it didn't want to become the nautilus company, effectively it had been that way for 6+ years at this point, where most purchases were propping up the desire to get one or more Naut/Aqua allocations eventually while taking a hit

2. Most true halo pieces (chime, handpaint, grand comp) are so expensive and so far out from a customer perspective that their relevance is diminished

3. The large in between in the catalogue is both WAY more expensive for MSRP and WAY discounted vs AP in the secondary market

4. Therefore TS really only had the option of creating a fake proxy halo watch (that is $10k more expensive than the Naut - mainly to get people getting used to the inflated MSRPs for all their other watches) while further reducing supply of the true Halo Naut watch... Both in order to ensure people buy their "take a terrible hit immediately" in-between catalogue pieces

While AP I would venture has by and large more "desirable" regular models and more palatable prices and the MSRP hit is not as pronounced as PP for most of them


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Patek and AP collector here...

Objectively you are probably right - very simply, AP recently surpassed Patek in terms of annual turnover. And this was not because of selling more volume - in fact, AP somehow is selling less volume and delivering a higher annual turnover than PP. And, this is despite PP offering a wider and much higher priced range than AP. What happened here?

I do think AP's management has done a much better job with the business, which is part of the reason why they exceeded PP in turnover. Cutting out the middleman, consolidating points of sale, having more direct customer relation management are just good business decisions that probably has increased their margin, elevated their supply and inventory control,
and enabled them to have a way better understanding of customers.

It's not a surprise PP and Rolex are following suit by cutting dealer networks, increasing direct boutiques, and improving direct customer engagements. PP and Rolex is following AP's leadership and strategy here - and I am really thankful for it. It hopefully can elevate the entire customer relationship experience, improve exclusivity, and take away bad actors.

So yes, from a business perspective, AP is in a much better business and market position than PP. In the end, AP recently surpassed PP in turnover, despite not producing as much as PP. Kudos to AP.

As for my subjective feedback - I am definitely not a Cubitus supporter. It was just a bad business and brand decision to discontinue the 5711, and then seemingly replace it with the Cubitus. If Patek kept the 5711, then I would totally understand the decision to add the Cubitus - but the fact that this is positioned as a *replacement* to the 5711 is just a dumb decision. Like if Porsche and the Piech family decided to discontinue the 911 and create a new line with some controversial styling. Or if Hermes and the Dumas family discontinued the Birkin and replaced it with something more modern. It would just be bad decision making!

And, it's a real shame as the Nautilus will have its 50th anniversary in two years!!! Maybe there is a plan to re-launch it?


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[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by Pfang56

Patek and AP collector here...

Objectively you are probably right - very simply, AP recently surpassed Patek in terms of annual turnover. And this was not because of selling more volume - in fact, AP somehow is selling less volume and delivering a higher annual turnover than PP. And, this is despite PP offering a wider and much higher priced range than AP. What happened here?

I do think AP's management has done a much better job with the business, which is part of the reason why they exceeded PP in turnover. Cutting out the middleman, consolidating points of sale, having more direct customer relation management are just good business decisions that probably has increased their margin, elevated their supply and inventory control,
and enabled them to have a way better understanding of customers.

It's not a surprise PP and Rolex are following suit by cutting dealer networks, increasing direct boutiques, and improving direct customer engagements. PP and Rolex is following AP's leadership and strategy here - and I am really thankful for it. It hopefully can elevate the entire customer relationship experience, improve exclusivity, and take away bad actors.

So yes, from a business perspective, AP is in a much better business and market position than PP. In the end, AP recently surpassed PP in turnover, despite not producing as much as PP. Kudos to AP.

As for my subjective feedback - I am definitely not a Cubitus supporter. It was just a bad business and brand decision to discontinue the 5711, and then seemingly replace it with the Cubitus. If Patek kept the 5711, then I would totally understand the decision to add the Cubitus - but the fact that this is positioned as a *replacement* to the 5711 is just a dumb decision. Like if Porsche and the Piech family decided to discontinue the 911 and create a new line with some controversial styling. Or if Hermes and the Dumas family discontinued the Birkin and replaced it with something more modern. It would just be bad decision making!

And, it's a real shame as the Nautilus will have its 50th anniversary in two years!!! Maybe there is a plan to re-launch it?


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I agree with this take. I tried to reserve judgement on the Cubitus until I saw more live pictures of it. I thought maybe it'll grow on me and it really hasn't. I'm starting to think it was a mistake.


As for PP being a Nautilus/Aquanaut company and AP being a one trick pony argument? Both are true for the most part IMO. Outside of the rare handcraft, MR's, and some grand comps, most of the PP sales from their catalogue is for the chase of Nautilus or Aquanaut. I'm guilty of it too. AP's main watch is the RO in various forms. I do think they do a wonderful job of keeping the line fresh and relevant though. I never get tired of wearing my RO's. The big difference I guess is that the cost of the journey to get an RO is much less expensive than trying to get a Nautilus.

Another factor is that once you establish a relationship with AP, it's for the long haul. A relationship with a PP AD can be gone at anytime if they pull their AD status. Just my 2 cents.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by Pfang56

Patek and AP collector here...

Objectively you are probably right - very simply, AP recently surpassed Patek in terms of annual turnover. And this was not because of selling more volume - in fact, AP somehow is selling less volume and delivering a higher annual turnover than PP. And, this is despite PP offering a wider and much higher priced range than AP. What happened here?

I do think AP's management has done a much better job with the business, which is part of the reason why they exceeded PP in turnover. Cutting out the middleman, consolidating points of sale, having more direct customer relation management are just good business decisions that probably has increased their margin, elevated their supply and inventory control,
and enabled them to have a way better understanding of customers.

It's not a surprise PP and Rolex are following suit by cutting dealer networks, increasing direct boutiques, and improving direct customer engagements. PP and Rolex is following AP's leadership and strategy here - and I am really thankful for it. It hopefully can elevate the entire customer relationship experience, improve exclusivity, and take away bad actors.

So yes, from a business perspective, AP is in a much better business and market position than PP. In the end, AP recently surpassed PP in turnover, despite not producing as much as PP. Kudos to AP.

As for my subjective feedback - I am definitely not a Cubitus supporter. It was just a bad business and brand decision to discontinue the 5711, and then seemingly replace it with the Cubitus. If Patek kept the 5711, then I would totally understand the decision to add the Cubitus - but the fact that this is positioned as a *replacement* to the 5711 is just a dumb decision. Like if Porsche and the Piech family decided to discontinue the 911 and create a new line with some controversial styling. Or if Hermes and the Dumas family discontinued the Birkin and replaced it with something more modern. It would just be bad decision making!

And, it's a real shame as the Nautilus will have its 50th anniversary in two years!!! Maybe there is a plan to re-launch it?


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??? they did not discontinue the Nautilus but gave it an update just like porsche does with the 911 every couple years. Sure it's precious metal and slightly bigger but it's not like they completely discontinued it.

[Pfang56]

Originally Posted by dauster

??? they did not discontinue the Nautilus but gave it an update just like porsche does with the 911 every couple years. Sure it's precious metal and slightly bigger but it's not like they completely discontinued it.

Discontinued the 5711...

Would argue...

5711 to 5821 is more like...
911 to Panamera...

Not /991/992 etc..

Huge difference.

Both controversial decisions.


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[Pfang56]

Originally Posted by Pfang56

Discontinued the 5711...

Would argue...

5711 to 5821 is more like...
911 to Panamera...

Not /991/992 etc..

Huge difference.

Both controversial decisions.


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And...5711 to 5712 to 5726 to 5740 is more like a standard model to an S to a GTS to a Turbo. There's still space for a GT3 and GT2 and a 4S, and a Hybrid, and a...

Just wish there was an additional complication to the 5711 as opposed to a new case...in the end they made a Panamera instead of a cooler 911...


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[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Pfang56

And...5711 to 5712 to 5726 to 5740 is more like a standard model to an S to a GTS to a Turbo. There's still space for a GT3 and GT2 and a 4S, and a Hybrid, and a...

Just wish there was an additional complication to the 5711 as opposed to a new case...in the end they made a Panamera instead of a cooler 911...


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Not quite sure I agree with that. The 5811 is a "return to form" by using the "original" 2 piece case of the Nautilus which the 5711 did not utilize. If anything it is returning to the ORIGINS of the 911 if you want to use a Porsche Analogy. Its even more "blue" in the colour of the dial, and now with micro adjust and a 330 cal, its like a 911 but with modern upgrades like surround view parking, 18 updated interface inside etc etc. Probably more like a 991.2 (5711) => 992 (5811). As with Porsche, there will be people who prefer the 5711, and people who prefer the 5811, and ofcourse people who don't like Porsche or Patek which is fine as well.

[so nice]

AP just annihilates PP

[Ichiran]

I was recently at an event with some serious collectors and everyone was crowding around the owner to look at her watch (pic below), despite the presence of George Daniels, Simplicity, AK-06, RRCC, Roger Smith S2, Voutilainen Vingt-8 and 217QRS, and some LE Journes amongst various others in the same event. If I merely read this thread without knowing anything about Patek I would have thought Patek only has Nautilus in its catalog. I don't know what's the market price of this Patek but I don't think the owner cares whether it is "under retail" or not. I would love to own this too even if it is "way under retail" just like the owner.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I was recently at an event with some serious collectors and everyone was crowding around the owner to look at her watch (pic below), despite the presence of George Daniels, Simplicity, AK-06, RRCC, Roger Smith S2, Voutilainen Vingt-8 and 217QRS, and some LE Journes amongst various others in the same event. If I merely read this thread without knowing anything about Patek I would have thought Patek only has Nautilus in its catalog. I don't know what's the market price of this Patek but I don't think the owner cares whether it is "under retail" or not. I would love to own this too even if it is "way under retail" just like the owner.

yes, true. i should have added that PP does beautiful watches in the very very high end (starting north of 500K USD) and many of those pieces trade over retail.

[Pfang56]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I was recently at an event with some serious collectors and everyone was crowding around the owner to look at her watch (pic below), despite the presence of George Daniels, Simplicity, AK-06, RRCC, Roger Smith S2, Voutilainen Vingt-8 and 217QRS, and some LE Journes amongst various others in the same event. If I merely read this thread without knowing anything about Patek I would have thought Patek only has Nautilus in its catalog. I don't know what's the market price of this Patek but I don't think the owner cares whether it is "under retail" or not. I would love to own this too even if it is "way under retail" just like the owner.

Hi there - this enamel dialed minute repeater is wonderful and incredibly unique. There are incredibly unique PP pieces to be selected across the PP portfolio - and I imagine getting the approval by PP was a really unique experience. It's probably ideal for the individual collector and will be an extraordinary heirloom piece!

That being said - if this is about "market position" then my question is simply - if you ask the entire market, is this one example really more desirable than a RRCC, a Simplicity, any George Daniels, or any piece by an independent?

This is where PP lost its edge and desirability. Many people (including myself) would prefer to add another independent brand than buy another high end PP. PP has become less competitive and attractive vs the independents because of its lack of consistency and strength at the high end. I would argue lack of focus happens with PP's large catalogue and that unfortunately has made independents even more attractive than PP.

On the flip side, PP is more aware they have one of the most desirable stainless steel sports watches in the entire industry. Yet, they just decided over the last few years to reduce investment and expand the line. Why not try to add a higher end complication beyond the PC to the Nautilus? And, why not make a Titanium model (TS has openly shared he would never do it)? I mean they certainly have the capabilities and money to make it happen!

This is where I think PP makes a bad business decision, and AP is making much smarter business decisions, to preserve AND grow their market position. Yes it turns some people off but it definitely meets the requests and demands of their customers. It grows their business. Common business sense.

Working in family run companies in the past, I can understand sometimes that business logic does not always win with these strategic choices. It's often about reputation and coincidentally - handing down a legacy for future generations - but as a PP collector myself - I think this decision with the Cubitus / Nautilus will definitely be written up in business cases in the future!


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[NYG1121]

Exactly. People need to separate “under retail” with actual watchmaking. Every watch other than a handful have ALWAYS been under retail. Its an expensive hobby. But appreciate the craftsmanship instead and you will never care about market values.