SS Rolex Perspective from a gray dealer

[johnjm]

I'm a numbers guy. Where are the hard stats?

Keen to actually see this drop, where can it be measured? And please, no so and so told me.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

[alphadweller]

Clickbait. Where's the drop? Chrono24 graphs don't show much of a change in the past few weeks on hot models.

[dchernikoff]

All the more reason to only buy at MSRP (or less). I was starting to feel ansy about waiting for my AD to pony up a Hulk or YM40, but now I'm even more resolved to wait and not go above MSRP for a watch (which has been my philosophy to date).

-Dan

[Panos Cosmatos]

Originally Posted by johnjm

I'm a numbers guy. Where are the hard stats?

Keen to actually see this drop, where can it be measured? And please, no so and so told me.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

Will probably take a while.. maybe another month. The US crash just happened last week, if things continue this way for another couple of weeks I’d expect the psychology to turn and some greys to start loosening on prices, especially if they need cash flow.

That said, I don’t think it’ll last long, and greys may be able to wait the situation out. If it’s a supply shock, it should be done by spring / summer (when the flu season is over), and there may be pent up demand that spurs things back to where they were, like in the late 2017 cold wave we had. The effects of this on the global supply chain are more severe and global than that cold wave though.

[Panos Cosmatos]

Originally Posted by miamiclay

I don’t have a dog in this modern-SS race, but I’d assume that Rolex as a manufacturer is indeed far more insulated from supply chain disruptions than most. Their vertical manufacturing integration approaches 100%, and it’s not like they need to worry about steady shiploads of steel — I imagine they could almost store a few years’ supply of raw metal in a 2-car garage! Probably they have strategic stockpiles of any materials at serious risk of disruption, and their labor needs are tiny. Their supply side has to be much, much safer than their demand side.

Exactly right. Maybe some small supply shock if Swiss workers stay home from work, but that wouldn’t last more than a couple of weeks.

Like you say, more on the demand side. Not that rolex themselves care, there is so much cushion between MSRP and market value they’ll continue to sell everything they make. More a problem for the greys.

[Rori]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

YouTube video was posted by John P today and I think it offers an interesting and honest perspective on the current situation on the SS Rolex market from a gray dealer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raoRTiOs_Ls&t=627s

For anyone that doesn't know John P, he is the business parter of Federico Talks Watches on YouTube for Delraywatch. They do over 2M a year in gray sales and Federico is my favorite watch YouTube channel

Well it’s happening in front of our eyes now.
I’m a huge fan of these guys. Federico shows is indeed one of the best.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jb335]

Originally Posted by miamiclay

I don’t have a dog in this modern-SS race, but I’d assume that Rolex as a manufacturer is indeed far more insulated from supply chain disruptions than most. Their vertical manufacturing integration approaches 100%, and it’s not like they need to worry about steady shiploads of steel — I imagine they could almost store a few years’ supply of raw metal in a 2-car garage! Probably they have strategic stockpiles of any materials at serious risk of disruption, and their labor needs are tiny. Their supply side has to be much, much safer than their demand side.

I am no expert, but I was about to type something similar. What you wrote is my understanding and belief as well.

[fed_fan]

Not saying he's right or wrong but the process by which he arrives at the conclusion is fairly weak. It's entirely based on his own experience (i.e., inbound phone calls, emails, etc.)...an interesting set of anecdotes but hardly a representative sample of the larger industry.

Sorry to say but $2mm in revenues is nothing. It pales in comparison to the $23bn global Swiss watch export market; 11% of which represents the United States. The market is too fragmented and Delray Watch's business is too tiny for his perspective to be worth all that much.

Having said that, I agree that there will be an impact to Rolex prices (magnitude probably unknowable...elasticity of demand hard to gauge) but that isn't really news. Industry data has been soft for quite a while...Hong Kong protests anyone? Novel coronoavirus was clearly reflected in Swiss watch export data as early as Q4'19 (reports on a monthly basis). If he's going to cite Swatch Group's numbers, then why not make a video on January 30th when the company reported them?

Classic clickbait strategy following the stock market correction...

[Chas58]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

What's not to believe? The GMT is at the very beginning of a life cycle and thousands of these are coming to the market in the following months. Folks with the money already bought those over inflated pieces, and now you can clearly tell the prices are falling. If you factor in the current state in HK, it really shouldn't be more than a year from now where you could expect to get the BLNR within a month or so at the retail ..

Funny you should say that. I have a friend who asked for a batman 4 months ago, and our AD just laughed. Their case was pretty empty when I went there about that time and I didn't even bother asking.

Then this last weekend he suddenly says he can get a Batman or Pepsi for him at MSRP with about a 4 week wait time. WTF??? that is a HUGE change.

[jrs146]

I don’t put much thought into the gray market. I prefer to buy from ADs. If my watch at msrp falls under I’m on with that too. Although even with a correction I highly doubt that will on most professional steel models.

[zengineer]

Holycrap man...put your hands in your pockets or something. You aren't guiding our plane into the gate.

Sent from my Motorola Bag Phone

[Robf52]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

Yup Roman is another one of my favorites and he knows these guys well

Federico and Roman are my most watched YouTubers; good perspectives on the timepiece market and very entertaining. Tim Mosso is another really good one with encyclopedic knowledge.

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by Robf52

Federico and Roman are my most watched YouTubers; good perspectives on the timepiece market and very entertaining. Tim Mosso is another really good one with encyclopedic knowledge.

I actually ran into Tim in PA when I went to watchbox to pick up a piece. Great guy though his upside down sunglasses brings out my OCD