Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Definitely feels like panic sell at this point

Taking out lows and accelerating down -2100

As painful as this is the market needs this flush to start to bottom

[m j b]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

Bill Ackman is laying out a doomsday scenario on CNBC right now. I just cancelled my buy orders...

As noted by others, and the CNBC commentator, he (Bill) is a buyer.

You don't want to ignore what he says nor what he does.

On the other hand, we are stuck at a circuit breaker and few people are believing that the govt is telling us.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Definitely feels like panic sell at this point

Agreed.

Every day of the past few weeks has felt like either panic selling or panic buying to me. Once we had our expected correction off the highs, the rest has been fear-based, imho.

[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Agreed.

Every day of the past few weeks has felt like either panic selling or panic buying to me. Once we had our expected correction off the highs, the rest has been fear-based, imho.

Completely agree!

No one knows what’s around the corner, it’s not something that can be quantified at this stage ... so it’s just irrational panic.

The only sensible thing to do is sit tight, don’t realise any paper losses unless absolutely necessary, and if you’re sitting on spare cash, buy cautiously when you feel ready. You’ll never know if you’re timing the bottom, but that’s part of the game, and you may just be lucky!

[GB-man]

Did Ackman really go on there and pedal a dream he had in January then go on to say "hell is coming" What a jackass that guy is. Best show CNBC has ever put out was when Icahn called into lay into him on Herbalife

[Bearxj86]

Bought some GS.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by HighlandWatch

Completely agree!



No one knows what’s around the corner, it’s not something that can be quantified at this stage ... so it’s just irrational panic.



The only sensible thing to do is sit tight, don’t realise any paper losses unless absolutely necessary, and if you’re sitting on spare cash, buy cautiously when you feel ready. You’ll never know if you’re timing the bottom, but that’s part of the game, and you may just be lucky!

Correct. The USD is surging right now. Cash is king.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Did Ackman really go on there and pedal a dream he had in January then go on to say "hell is coming" What a jackass that guy is. Best show CNBC has ever put out was when Icahn called into lay into him on Herbalife

Yes, but Herbalife is very much a pyramid scheme. He was not wrong about that one.

[golfgrouch]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Well that is what hedge fund managers do. Note he is also buying

Remember the old adage, "when the time comes to buy, you wont want to" and "buy when others are fearful"

Just hit a trading halt down 7% on the S&P to 2351 which is right on the December 2018 low, need to see if this holds

I am literally shaking with fear after hearing Ackman's dire prediction. My investment portfolio is down over 30% in just one month. I don't think I can stomach much more pain. I'm thinking of selling all remaining stocks.

How are you guys so calm? Why shouldn't I stop the bleeding and sell everything right now?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Did Ackman really go on there and pedal a dream he had in January then go on to say "hell is coming" What a jackass that guy is. Best show CNBC has ever put out was when Icahn called into lay into him on Herbalife

I watched that.

He is a bag of tools and then some.

Even the way he talks...he is so pretentious it is ridiculous.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

I am literally shaking with fear after hearing Ackman's dire prediction. My investment portfolio is down over 30% in just one month. I don't think I can stomach much more pain. I'm thinking of selling all remaining stocks.

How are you guys so calm? Why shouldn't I stop the bleeding and sell everything right now?

This is exactly what you should not do. Paper losses are just that. Whjat will you do with the cash? When will you reinvest?

Stop looking if it bothers you. It is not that we are calm, we are just watching and waiting. I have been buying today as I feel this is a move down that makes people like you want to sell. When everyone wants to sell that is usually a sign of a turn.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by SMD

Yes, but Herbalife is very much a pyramid scheme. He was not wrong about that one.

Even when your are right you can still lose!

Originally Posted by superdog

I watched that.

He is a bag of tools and then some.

Even the way he talks...he is so pretentious it is ridiculous.

The worst. You know he's good at his job because there's no way anyone invests with him because they like him

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by beshannon

This is exactly what you should not do. Paper losses are just that. Whjat will you do with the cash? When will you reinvest?

Stop looking if it bothers you. It is not that we are calm, we are just watching and waiting. I have been buying today as I feel this is a move down that makes people like you want to sell. When everyone wants to sell that is usually a sign of a turn.

The same happened in 2008 and the market was down 50% at one point. It took 2-3 years to get back to even but it did. It's not that we are calm, we do not have a better alternative at this point to be honest. I am slowing buying "value" and rebalancing. That's all I can do...

My watches are really a source of joy and stability right now :)

[m j b]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

I am literally shaking with fear after hearing Ackman's dire prediction. My investment portfolio is down over 30% in just one month. I don't think I can stomach much more pain. I'm thinking of selling all remaining stocks.

How are you guys so calm? Why shouldn't I stop the bleeding and sell everything right now?

Sell only if you have a plan and think you can buy it back lower.

DO NOT PANIC!

Yes, 30% is a killer, but what was your cost basis? Are you in good quality companies, or speculative issues with little to no earnings?

Most people sell at the worst time. Few of us can time the market accurately.

If you have a loser that looks like it may get worse, like say an airline that was not doing well before the cutbacks and will likely fail, then maybe selling it would save what little money it is still worth. But if it's a good company that will survive the recession and will recover its market afterwards, then this is just a blip on the radar and not a UFO containing the replacement body pods.

Yeah, I stretched that analogy a bit.

[Bearxj86]

Agree 100%

Originally Posted by m j b

Sell only if you have a plan and think you can buy it back lower.

DO NOT PANIC!

Yes, 30% is a killer, but what was your cost basis? Are you in good quality companies, or speculative issues with little to no earnings?

Most people sell at the worst time. Few of us can time the market accurately.

If you have a loser that looks like it may get worse, like say an airline that was not doing well before the cutbacks and will likely fail, then maybe selling it would save what little money it is still worth. But if it's a good company that will survive the recession and will recover its market afterwards, then this is just a blip on the radar and not a UFO containing the replacement body pods.

Yeah, I stretched that analogy a bit.

[beshannon]

These are not recommendations, just ideas posted on CNBC, these are the kind of things I am looking for however, I am not chasing stocks that are up on a day like today

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by superdog

I watched that.



He is a bag of tools and then some.



Even the way he talks...he is so pretentious it is ridiculous.

Well said. He's unbelievable.

[golfgrouch]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Well said. He's unbelievable.

Really? You didn't find his explanation today realistic or at least plausible?

This situation is unprecedented, correct? I can't think of anything in the past that is like it...

[GB-man]

I have to admit I watched the video on CNBC and it wasn't as bad as it sounded from the headlines. I am just not convinced that a 30 day shutdown ends the virus. That is not the picture Michael Osterholm paints.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

Really? You didn't find his explanation today realistic or at least plausible?

This situation is unprecedented, correct? I can't think of anything in the past that is like it...

He dreamt about it. He is a psychic.

I don't hate his idea. I kind of hope it happens.

He is just a bag of tools on how he says is.

[77T]

Well I will wait to fund the kids IRA’s while we watch correction sink to recession. Even today isn’t a bottoming certainty. Methinks two successive up weeks would be a signal, though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[m j b]

I want to remind people that are worried, panicked, etc. that for every stock that goes down in price, that means that someone is buying it. Yes, we're down about 10% as I write this, but again, for every sale there is a corresponding purchase.

If no one was buying, then we'd be plummeting to zero, and then you should be very, very concerned. It isn't happening.

I'm buying today. I've been buying all day long, and I'll continue to. Really good solid companies are selling for prices not seen in years.

Here's an example: Phillip Morris. MO. The largest cigarette company in the country by every measure, now called Altria, makes many of the major brands including Marlboro. The most popular brand in the world.

So what? Smokers do not quit. Heck, in times of stress, they'll want to smoke even more. What else can they do? They will skimp on food, beverages, recreational drugs, clothes, etc. See a homeless person, and odds are they have some cigarettes on them. It's the last thing to go.

That's my stock tip of the day.

PM (Phillip Morris International) is another one. It's the spin-off of the non-USA markets. 8% yield. Altria, over a 9% yield.

[teqp]

Originally Posted by GB-man

The worst. You know he's good at his job because there's no way anyone invests with him because they like him

I still get a laugh at his bad beat when he tried to collude with Valeant in a hostile takeover. His firm only had a $4B loss.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bi...lly-2017-03-30

[golfgrouch]

What should our cash be as a % of our total investment portfolio right now?

[SMD]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The same happened in 2008 and the market was down 50% at one point. It took 2-3 years to get back to even but it did. It's not that we are calm, we do not have a better alternative at this point to be honest. I am slowing buying "value" and rebalancing. That's all I can do...

My watches are really a source of joy and stability right now :)

It took a lot longer than that. S&P peaked in October 2007, took until March 2009 to bottom out (down 54%) and then took until 2013 to get back to 2007 levels. So 6 years. We are at most in the top of the second inning on this.

[teqp]

Originally Posted by beshannon

These are not recommendations, just ideas posted on CNBC, these are the kind of things I am looking for however, I am not chasing stocks that are up on a day like today

The first 3 make sense to me, but can't believe that as people are not working or getting laid off, they will start to buy stationary bikes that cost over $2000. That reminds me of 08 when people stopped getting LASIK and stuck with their glasses or contact lenses and that sector tanked as a result.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by teqp

The first 3 make sense to me, but can't believe that as people are not working or getting laid off, they will start to buy stationary bikes that cost over $2000. That reminds me of 08 when people stopped getting LASIK and stuck with their glasses or contact lenses and that sector tanked as a result.

I am considering it as all the gyms are closed in the tristate area plus Pennsylvania. I am not alone.

[teqp]

Originally Posted by SMD

I am considering it as all the gyms are closed in the tristate area plus Pennsylvania. I am not alone.

A lot of folks on TRF can afford them, I'm sure. But the general pop...i doubt they can.

[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by beshannon

This is exactly what you should not do. Paper losses are just that. Whjat will you do with the cash? When will you reinvest?

Stop looking if it bothers you. It is not that we are calm, we are just watching and waiting. I have been buying today as I feel this is a move down that makes people like you want to sell. When everyone wants to sell that is usually a sign of a turn.

Spot on. They’re only paper losses. Once this blows over, give it a couple of years, and you’ll look back at a great learning experience, of how to hold your nerve. I hope!

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

Really? You didn't find his explanation today realistic or at least plausible?

This situation is unprecedented, correct? I can't think of anything in the past that is like it...

Concerning these talking heads, we're speaking more broadly than just about today's foolish comments. He dreamed the market was going to crash? Not the best source of technical or market analysis, imo.

Also, anyone can look at the past few weeks and conclude it's unprecedented. That's just him being Captain Obvious. In my experience, most cable financial news personalities/commentators have no idea how to advise prudently. They make fools of themselves on a regular basis. Look at Cramer's abysmal track record, especially leading up to and during the last financial crisis. It would have been funny if it wasn't sad how he kept telling people to buy & hold as the Dow lost more than 50% of its value.