Gronefeld Principia discontinued?

[unsprung]

Originally Posted by dchang81

The thing that I don't get is are they that behind that the order books have been closed for 2.5 years? Id get it if all their models are selling for crazy money, but in this case principias are going for nearly half off...id be interested but at the same time makes me wonder the longevity of the brand

They‘ve had a multi year waiting list after reopening for the two new models. and people had to pay 50% in advance to get on the list. Question is, if they do a full refund, if someone cancels his order (which is not yet in production). If they don‘t (fully) refund, there will probably be very few cancellations. The market downturn will then take a very long time to actually result in short(er) supply times. Just a guess, though. Don‘t know their actual refund policy.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Not true. I don't think you are following any of these brands enough.

Demand has fallen, supply still limited. You are both right in a way. Auctions are back to being poor indicators of real market price, just like pre COVID.

[jcarm981]

Originally Posted by unsprung

They‘ve had a multi year waiting list after reopening for the two new models. and people had to pay 50% in advance to get on the list. Question is, if they do a full refund, if someone cancels his order (which is not yet in production). If they don‘t (fully) refund, there will probably be very few cancellations. The market downturn will then take a very long time to actually result in short(er) supply times. Just a guess, though. Don‘t know their actual refund policy.

30% non refundable deposit and multi year wait. Maybe they’ll come out with a replacement or refresh this spring. Deltaworks was getting quoted 5+ years back in 2022.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Demand has fallen, supply still limited. You are both right in a way. Auctions are back to being poor indicators of real market price, just like pre COVID.

Supply is always limited for these artisanal independents due to the hours involved, but yet from my own frustrating hunt for these watches, I do think demand has increased exponentially for these artisanal independents over the past years. I have been trying ever harder (establishing contacts, attend more events, flew to greet in person, etc) and yet I can't get most of these watches. It's well documented in the past you can get these artisanal watches easily from the likes of Dufour, Smith and Akrivia. It's impossible now. The train has left.

Re auctions, there are less of these artisanal watches than the likes 1518 and 2499 in every auction. They are the first thing I look out for in every catalogue.

[unsprung]

Originally Posted by jcarm981

30% non refundable deposit and multi year wait. Maybe they’ll come out with a replacement or refresh this spring. Deltaworks was getting quoted 5+ years back in 2022.

Checked my mails. You‘re right, 30% not 50%. Still, if non refundable, the market downturn (which happened after the release of the two new models) will have no immediate effect on order backlog.

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Not true. I don't think you are following any of these brands enough.

I don't know about the others but certainly Dufour and Smith which were auction royalty have come down quite a bit. Prices are still crazy but they've gone from 7 figures to 6 figures so it's not nothing burger. Voutilainen has come down too, more I think there was a spike in the observatoires, the modern watches a little less up and down.

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by ajw45

I don't know about the others but certainly Dufour and Smith which were auction royalty have come down quite a bit. Prices are still crazy but they've gone from 7 figures to 6 figures so it's not nothing burger. Voutilainen has come down too, more I think there was a spike in the observatoires, the modern watches a little less up and down.

Vout has 100% dropped. I can see it in Moda too. Like you said - auction results for the others have tanked too.

Ichiran, given you aren't in Moda, I don't think you really have a good grasp of pricing. It's far more accurate than anything else out there.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by ajw45

I don't know about the others but certainly Dufour and Smith which were auction royalty have come down quite a bit. Prices are still crazy but they've gone from 7 figures to 6 figures so it's not nothing burger. Voutilainen has come down too, more I think there was a spike in the observatoires, the modern watches a little less up and down.

Let me share the other artisanal watches' results then.

Akrivia
AK-06 (Christie's Nov 2023) - HKD 5,292,000 (MSRP S$138,000)
AK-01 (Christie's Nov 2023) - HKD 4,788,000 (MSRP S$273,000)
AK-05 (Phillips May 2024) - CHF 635,000 (MSRP S$248,000)
AK-01 (Phillips Nov 2024) - CHF 1,079,500 (MSRP S$273,000)

Rexhep Rexhepi
RRCC01 (Phillips May 2023) - HKD 7,239,000 (MSRP CHF 57,500)
RRCC01 (Phillips Nov 2023) - HKD 6,985,000 (MSRP CHF 57,500)
RRCC01 (Phillips May 2024) - CHF 1,155,700 (MSRP CHF 57,500)

Petermann Bedat
1967 (Phillips Nov 2024) - CHF 215,900 (MSRP CHF 59,800)

Sylvain Pinaud
Origine (Phillips Nov 2024) - CHF 165,100 (MSRP CHF 65,000)

The likes of Simon Brette, Raul Pages, Vincent Deprez and Remy Cools haven't been auctioned before except for their unique piece which will not be discussed here. Given how difficult to get an allocation of these watches, and they are rare/have interior angles/interesting designs/less than 40mm, their value should be in the ballpark above.

I'm also expecting all future AK, RRCC2, PB 2941, SBCA Souscription, Auffret Tourbillon à Paris, RP1, Krayon Métiers d'Art Azur, etc, to do well in high profile auctions.

[dchang81]

I guess going back to gronefeld, is they don't go for over MSRP via auction or anywhere these days. Those other brands sure they can hold the deposit since they have such strong value. Wonder how many would still put the deposit for a gronograff or deltaworks in today's market. Great watch but market is so different

[Ichiran]

Every artisanal independent I placed orders with has asked for deposits - appears to be the industry norm if we buy directly from them? It's more so relevant and fair in my view if there are customization involved...