Supply, Demand, & COVID-19

[vipereaper30]

I think we're seeing solid indications we've shifted to or past the intersect. Flippers have bigger problems now and too much risk. Mall/jewelry store traffic must be down. And collectors and enthusiasts might have a lot better chance of getting hands on the models they seek.

Do they have the funds and willingness to buy now at MSRP?

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Do they have the funds and willingness to buy now at MSRP?

Most will tell you how nothing has changed, how the professional models are still not available to walk in customers like before 2017, some will make fun how they wan't that white dial Daytona in that case and others will tell how the Rolex will slow down the production so they do not become less desirable .. Truth is, nobody knows and our guess is good as anyone else ..

Nevertheless, even if we see all the models available again like before, I believe the situation will be far worse for the ADs than it used to be before the shortage when they were offering 10% discounts for GMT. Mainly, because most of the buyers in the meantime developed the Rolex fatigue, and others were treated poorly by their AD. Also, once something becomes available again, and is not so "in trend" anymore on social medias, it is very hard to ignite the interest once again in average buyers who are making 99% of the buyers outside this Forum .. Could be a long way until we see the 2016 happening again, but it might as well be around the corner this time.

[Mr. Miami]

I plan on visiting the AD tomorrow. Although I’m not after a SS model, I’m curious to see what the stock will be.

[1665fan]

Plenty of datejusts in the cases....go buy them!!!

[c41006]

There are already a few threads covering this topic

[huncho]

unless you were getting a daytona, blue skydweller or pepsi you weren't making much flipping anyway and getting those 3 was never easy and still won't be. greys will still be buying up stock now probably

[mobster600]

It’s still too early to predict anything. You don’t know how long CV will last.

[FTX I]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Most will tell you how nothing has changed, how the professional models are still not available to walk in customers like before 2017, some will make fun how they wan't that white dial Daytona in that case and others will tell how the Rolex will slow down the production so they do not become less desirable .. Truth is, nobody knows and our guess is good as anyone else ..

Nevertheless, even if we see all the models available again like before, I believe the situation will be far worse for the ADs than it used to be before the shortage when they were offering 10% discounts for GMT. Mainly, because most of the buyers in the meantime developed the Rolex fatigue, and others were treated poorly by their AD. Also, once something becomes available again, and is not so "in trend" anymore on social medias, it is very hard to ignite the interest once again in average buyers who are making 99% of the buyers outside this Forum .. Could be a long way until we see the 2016 happening again, but it might as well be around the corner this time.

Interesting post.

[Claven2]

CV is a blip. I don't think fear of leaving the house is why there might be a dip, it would have more to do with financial security concerns in light of market impacts and the prospect of people having less disposable income in the times of social isolation that is being adopted almost everywhere now.

Whether luxury goods are as popular after recovery remains to be seen, but I suspect demand will rebound after the initial surge of economic impact abates.

There are a lot of parallels here to 2008's financial crisis, and as we all know - rolex demand eventually recovered and then some.

[The Libertine]

SS availability is not a priority of mine at present.

[MSchu]

Ive got enough watches for the time being...

true story

[Gerardus]

Originally Posted by MSchu

Ive got enough watches for the time being...

true story

Same for me

[JCZ5]

Already spoken to a few collectors and all have said they will be turning down any offers of Rolex sport models. Now who knows in actuality, but it is a different tune than a few months ago.

I for myself was told by my AD that they will have a Pepsi for me in 4-8 weeks. Very strange since a few months ago when I asked, it was out of the question.

My Patek AD also called and said I’m next on a 5712. I’m actually going to pass on this as $41K is way too much to drop on a luxury item in this current economic climate.


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[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by The Libertine

SS availability is not a priority of mine at present.

Agree.

[glamorama]

The way things are going in Europe at this very moment Rolex might very well shut down production for several weeks soon.

[rushca01]

Watches are not a priority of mine either right now. With that said, if a 126710 suddenly became available at MSRP I would buy it....also if for some reason the 116719 hit pre-2017 levels I would likely buy one..

[lowmandfl]

Originally Posted by JCZ5

Already spoken to a few collectors and all have said they will be turning down any offers of Rolex sport models. Now who knows in actuality, but it is a different tune than a few months ago.

I for myself was told by my AD that they will have a Pepsi for me in 4-8 weeks. Very strange since a few months ago when I asked, it was out of the question.

My Patek AD also called and said I’m next on a 5712. I’m actually going to pass on this as $41K is way too much to drop on a luxury item in this current economic climate.


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I think this rings true. I doubt you will see a sudden influx of models in display cases immediately, but I do think ADs are calling clients and a number of them are turning down new purchases of “hot watches.” It has a cascading effect for sure.

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by glamorama

The way things are going in Europe at this very moment Rolex might very well shut down production for several weeks soon.

shutting down production or some modified work schedule will certainly limit supply, but I think Rolex should follow suit like most companies, restaurants, sports leagues and look after their employees and slow or shut production down for a while

[c41006]

Originally Posted by glamorama

The way things are going in Europe at this very moment Rolex might very well shut down production for several weeks soon.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if all of this caused prices to shoot up even higher

[Miura Mario]

Systemic risk exists. Soon you will be able to buy whatever watch you want but you wont want to anymore.

[H25B]

Suddenly a GMT Pepsi is a possibility from my AD whereas 3 months ago it was, “not going to happen..”

You’re a fool if you don’t think things are softening, no one knows yet how much. This is a luxury watch forum so a certain amount of arrogant affluenza is to be expected. Personally I’d rather things stay the same. I’d probably pass if offered one, I’d rather buy bargain stocks on the dip and pay premium at a grey later after the dust settles.

[RolexNorth]

Gave a list to my AD a year ago. I'd walk in every 2 months to refresh his memory of what I want. I also gave him my contact info.

I still have not received a phonecall from him.

I'm assuming I'm way down the list of important clients, so I suspect that when I do get the call, then the crap has hit the fan.

[SS Oyster]

Why is this in the “Rolex” section?


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[KaVo8]

Originally Posted by Gerardus

Same for me

Can you define enough? Lol.


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[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by c41006

There are already a few threads covering this topic

I guess I should have titled this one 'are you a buyer in light of current market conditions?' instead of what I chose. Didn't see another in the same vein, thanks for your contribution.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Demand will go down. Grey dealers might feel a pinch. I’m glad I never paid a premium.

[Juan Luis]

Or production stays the same and diverted to where there is the most demand.

[THC]

Down here in the south, I am hoping our warm temps mitigate new cases

Stay diligent TRF

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

I guess I should have titled this one 'are you a buyer in light of current market conditions?' instead of what I chose. Didn't see another in the same vein, thanks for your contribution.

I am a buyer, in light of conditions. Although, as some others said, I have enough watches already.

[c41006]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

I guess I should have titled this one 'are you a buyer in light of current market conditions?' instead of what I chose. Didn't see another in the same vein, thanks for your contribution.

No problem

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=730285

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=729772