Talking Stocks 2.0

[maximus1]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I half wish I kept the damn SDS open over the weekend but it wasn’t the plan going in and the longer you have those open the more likely you get spanked or the vol eats your gains.

Maybe Monday will bring good news because I feel like you could bet the farm it won’t and I’m mostly wrong with this stuff.

I wish that I had some SDS

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by brandrea

That's an interesting range.

Do you believe that it will eventually go on to new highs?

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Eventually, but it’s gonna be a while before we see 3400 again

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by superdog

For those with cash reserves.

Anyone concerned with FDIC insurance limits?

If so, what are you doing?

Multiple banks, use your spouse (if applicable) for double the coverage

Do not gamble with this... why take the risk, but maybe JPM or Northern Trust I wouldn’t worry that much. The banks are much stronger now than in 2008, but I’m very pessimistic with this thing and what’s to come.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

After analyzing past recessions, I'm concerned that the markets have another 20% downside risk. What should I do to protect my portfolio?

Buy puts on the SPY, or just liquidate. Unfortunately no free lunch or mulligans... that is unless you’re a big company where the govt has to now bail you out. Private profits, public losses. Fire up the presses, Rinse repeat.

[A971]

I bought a relatively small slice (less than 10% of sideline cash) on my Friday evening.

Asia hours... so my options are get it done and go to bed, or use a limit in and watch it run against me...

Of course I bought the highs. Fun market.


Timing this is going to be near impossible. Just slow and steady buying on the way down is pretty much the plan for me.

30 day holding period (work compliance) feels like an absolute eternity.

Best of luck to everyone.


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[A971]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Buy puts on the SPY, or just liquidate. Unfortunately no free lunch or mulligans... that is unless you’re a big company where the govt has to now bail you out. Private profits, public losses. Fire up the presses, Rinse repeat.

Vol is insanely expensive now.
You would be paying “building is already on fire” prices for insurance.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by A971

Vol is insanely expensive now.
You would be paying “building is already on fire” prices for insurance.

There have been ok times to buy even this week. Agreed the cost is high, but for good reason... time will tell but we’re only in the 4th inning of the drop while the virus has yet to do any meaningful widespread damage.

Americans are generally sheltered and completely insulated from most bad things. The talk of the town was empty shelves and schools closing. My complete lack of faith in these suburban clowns will drive the markets way lower once this gets past reporting on “testing” and onto Italy type stuff.

So, I believe the contracts are too valuable not to have. Time will tell I guess

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

The banks are much stronger now than in 2008...

Please explain why the Fed 'needed' to inject / promise trillions in just the past week or so to buy, basically, nearly everything they can mop up global bank's assets. Is the Fed pricing mark-to-market or mark-to-fantasy when they buy these items that may default soon? Have you done a forensic on the bank's balance sheets?

Also, how are these banks tested for a mere 15% loss as this rolls into next month of unemployment, then load defaults and jingle mail, as companies go under too... and then....

JMHO YMMV

[vman]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Please explain why the Fed 'needed' to inject / promise trillions in just the past week or so to buy, basically, nearly everything they can mop up global bank's assets. Is the Fed pricing mark-to-market or mark-to-fantasy when they buy these items that may default soon? Have you done a forensic on the bank's balance sheets?

Also, how are these banks tested for a mere 15% loss as this rolls into next month of unemployment, then load defaults and jingle mail, as companies go under too... and then....

JMHO YMMV

The Fed is borrowing a chapter from the book that may not be relevant to the current events. What you see today is a perfect black swan event with no precedent in the modern history given our technical advances, population growth, and the knowledge of epidemics.

What we know about the past is good info but it may not fully apply to the current situation. Yet the Fed had to something. Glad all these borrowers are rushing to borrow more $ at close to zero APR. So much spending can be done these day!

[dimag333]

So is normally Monday morning in a situation like this the best time to buy?

steve

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by dimag333

So is normally Monday morning in a situation like this the best time to buy?

steve

I think we’ll be down big Monday of course that’s my opinion but it seems like with quarantines on it may cause a new panic.


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[golfgrouch]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Buy puts on the SPY, or just liquidate. Unfortunately no free lunch or mulligans... that is unless you’re a big company where the govt has to now bail you out. Private profits, public losses. Fire up the presses, Rinse repeat.

Thanks. With option premiums so high, what do you think of vertical put spreads? Any suggestions for the strikes and expiration dates?

[c41006]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

I think we’ll be down big Monday of course that’s my opinion but it seems like with quarantines on it may cause a new panic.


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I agree. 2.5 days of bad news for the markets to react to.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by dimag333

So is normally Monday morning in a situation like this the best time to buy?

steve

This is an unprecedented situation with no playbook. Too many unknowns and variables at this time to make any kind of an accurate forecast and anyone who tells you different should be looked at very cautiously.

[EEpro]

Intraday trading is probably best bet. Nobody knows what direction the market will open until futures trade the night before.

[dimag333]

from my obv new perspective it does seem like mondays have a bit of dip to them

steve

[Duende01]

Originally Posted by dimag333

So is normally Monday morning in a situation like this the best time to buy?

steve

Keep an eye on the stock market futures as they can give an indication of what the market might do. This is true for not only the U.S. but also global markets. If you have a brokage acct with the larger investment platforms (Vanguard, Fidelity, Ameritrade) you can buy at any time of the day. A widely recommended practice is to buy between market opening and 10:30 a.m. or/and again from 3:00 to closing. On bad days I often buy multiple times throughout the day to DCA in the event of a big share price change.

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[dimag333]

Hey brotha I’m using E*TRADE, was gonna hit lqd I have seen mentioned here Monday morning with long term plan. Forgive me if specifics like this shouldn’t be discussed

steve

[replicator]

Trading isn’t for everyone but I would be very careful what you buy, and not go all-in. I was fortunate to get short when this all began, but keeping an eye out for bargains if we get a sign things are looking up. Balance sheets and cash flow will matter now, so would definitely avoid the high PE speculative bubble type stocks (Tesla, Space) unless you’re shorting them.

[superdog]

For those of us with cannabis stocks...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-st...121400480.html

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by c41006

I agree. 2.5 days of bad news for the markets to react to.

They don't seem to need much these days to react poorly.

[Duende01]

Originally Posted by superdog

For those of us with cannabis stocks...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-st...121400480.html

Pot is still cheaper from the corner dealer, one pays no tax, and probably even stronger.

[Ny325]

I can’t watch anymore. The man upstairs has us in a “ Global Reset.” We will all get through this.

[kieselguhr]

Putting in pre orders on Monday morning and will observe. I have a bad feeling that they will be executed despite being ridiculously low.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Duende01

Pot is still cheaper from the corner dealer, one pays no tax, and probably even stronger.

Might be true today, but with cannabis becoming more and more acceptable and with more states passing legislation to make legal, is this the new "hot" industry to buy into?

I'm not a user myself, but cannabis stocks appear inexpensive today and it would be something to hold onto for the long-term.

What are the thoughts here?

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Putting in pre orders on Monday morning and will observe. I have a bad feeling that they will be executed despite being ridiculously low.

Nick, you are braver than me! I am completely out of stocks and probably won't buy a thing until some time this summer. But I do wish you the best of luck on your strategy.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Nick, you are braver than me! I am completely out of stocks and probably won't buy a thing until some time this summer. But I do wish you the best of luck on your strategy.

Thanks Bill. I am relatively young and can afford to take these risks. I am using funds already allocated for investments and bolstering it with “fun money”. I suppose we’ll see if the saying “fortune favors the bold” holds water

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by Duende01

Keep an eye on the stock market futures as they can give an indication of what the market might do. This is true for not only the U.S. but also global markets. If you have a brokage acct with the larger investment platforms (Vanguard, Fidelity, Ameritrade) you can buy at any time of the day. A widely recommended practice is to buy between market opening and 10:30 a.m. or/and again from 3:00 to closing. On bad days I often buy multiple times throughout the day to DCA in the event of a big share price change.

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Please share where you found these widely recommended practices so we can all learn.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

Please share where you found these widely recommended practices so we can all learn.

Take look at the volume of trades for SPY. He's likely just referring to the times where there is the most market action / trades taking place and you can get ahead of the trend if you guess the direction correctly. You can also be wrong and lose in which case you have to average down to break even later in the trading session.

[Duende01]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

Please share where you found these widely recommended practices so we can all learn.

I've read it in multiple locations, investopedia, motley fools, and the bogleheads forum comes to mind. It has work for me, especially when the futures are substantially down the evening prior and into the morning prior to market opening.

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