Talking Stocks 2.0

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I like wearing my Khaki diver on a really up day and my SBGH269 on a really down day. Damn the Grand Seiko has gotten a lot of wrist time lately





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LOL I like your idea!

I'm completely out of the Market right now, so I'm wearing my Explorer every day, looking for that place I can re-enter with some likelihood of sustained upside.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Because some businesses owners of all sizes are closing up shop for good. And even "retail" at a big bank could be large. If someone has 30 million in Citi private banking, they would rather see good returns but they don't need those returns. They can afford to liquidate to cash and still take care of themselves and their family.

Not possible that your, reasonable explanation, can account for the massive amounts they just reported.

For example, my cousin convinced my elderly aunt to sell off her stocks. She lost a good sum of money. She’s an average investor at best.

Based on what they were reporting on, it’s massive amounts of people like her driving a large part of this sell off. Brad was actually saying that it was the FA’s responsibility to keep their clients calm and try to convince them to hold, instead of panic selling.

And fwiw, my other cousin (a CPA) is no longer speaking to his brother based on this scenario.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

Listening to Brad Gerstner on CNBC.

Apparently all the big houses have had massive amounts of their retail investors calling up saying get me out of the markets, no matter the cost.

I don’t get it. I’m new to all of this. But I e known for a long time, start long, go long, stay long.

Weather the slide.

Listening as well.

There are many reasons for redemption's. The panic sell is what makes this so frustrating for long term investors, which is why you need to be patient and rational. But the panic sell happens all the time, the amateurs feel like they are always losing and the pros are glad to sit back and wait, wait, wait and then buy when it looks the bleakest. The people rush back in and it starts over.

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Because some businesses owners of all sizes are closing up shop for good. And even "retail" at a big bank could be large. If someone has 30 million in Citi private banking, they would rather see good returns but they don't need those returns. They can afford to liquidate to cash and still take care of themselves and their family.

Also true, some of the selling is warranted and even prudent. When I read or hear about people cashing out IRA's or 401K's because they are afraid, then you know we are close to a bottom.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

Not possible that your, reasonable explanation, can account for the massive amounts they just reported.

For example, my cousin convinced my elderly aunt to sell off her stocks. She lost a good sum of money. She’s an average investor at best.

Based on what they were reporting on, it’s massive amounts of people like her driving a large part of this sell off. Brad was actually saying that it was the FA’s responsibility to keep their clients calm and try to convince them to hold, instead of panic selling.

And fwiw, my other cousin (a CPA) is no longer speaking to his brother based on this scenario.

Bingo!

I personally know someone who sold at the bottom in 2008, all of their 401K. And then they worked for 11 more years to try and earn it back.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by superdog

Not possible that your, reasonable explanation, can account for the massive amounts they just reported.

For example, my cousin convinced my elderly aunt to sell off her stocks. She lost a good sum of money. She’s an average investor at best.

Based on what they were reporting on, it’s massive amounts of people like her driving a large part of this sell off. Brad was actually saying that it was the FA’s responsibility to keep their clients calm and try to convince them to hold, instead of panic selling.

And fwiw, my other cousin (a CPA) is no longer speaking to his brother based on this scenario.

I was more addressing how even pretty sophisticated investors may have lost their appetite for market risk.

Another reasonable explanation is that those who've lost current income will need to sell off securities to keep paying their bills.

And you address another real issue, which is folks who don't need the cash and should be in this for the long haul, who are now panic selling because they're scared and it seems like everyone else is doing it.

[beshannon]

CNBC reporting that as we have been crossing technical indicators on the way up, algo driven etf buying has happened at four different points.

Of course this can happen on the downside as well but this gives people an idea of just how fast some of this could be snapped back with the advent of better sentiment and better news over several days or weeks.

[Mr. Miami]

I think about it from a long term perspective. Granted I’m about to graduate college and have no money invested yet. But I would like to think I wouldn’t panic sell in an event like this.

[Bearxj86]

Gentlemen,

If you can tolerate the Singlish accent, these two videos simplifies my investment approach pretty well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDBOn1zuUkA

The second video is about Tesla, an opinion of course:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoxlLYa_isk

[beshannon]

Opinion: If you do this now, you might be able to double your retirement portfolio

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if...lio-2020-03-23

I do NOT agree with all of the assumptions in this opinion piece

I do add the info to my view of the markets for the long term

[enjoythemusic]

The truly MASSIVE amount of money and payment delays is historic. Looks like the fix is in to manipulate this market upward no matter the costs.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

The truly MASSIVE amount of money and payment delays is historic. Looks like the fix is in to manipulate this market upward no matter the costs.

It's pretty simple that after a 2-4 week lockdown. We have no choice but to go back to work with the proper precautions. There is no alternative.

You have to evaluate the potential of 2% of the population dead in the worst case scenario against 30% unemployment potentially (note that if even 5% of the 30% commits crime or is unable to provide for the elderly, the deaths could be higher than the worst case COVID-19 scenarios). The 2% dead can be great mitigated by isolating the elderly and immuno-compromised as well as adequate supply of ventilators, masks and protection. This paper summarizes "The hammer" (3-8 week lockdown) and "The Dance" (keeping "R" or reinfection low) pretty well.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

Until then, yes, payment terms will need to be extended and deferred for up to a few months until liquidity resumes. There is no other choice.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Looks like the fix is in to manipulate this market upward no matter the costs.

Sorry but I completely disagree

Lets get back to focusing on stocks and not policies

[beshannon]

Markets getting a bit soft after 2 pm but the action still looks constructive A/D still 9/1 upside, volume is light at 493 mm, 28/30 DOW stocks in the green

CVX, AXP, BA, MCD, NKE, DIS, HD, V, UTX and GS all up +10% or more so far today

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Markets getting a bit soft after 2 pm but the action still looks constructive A/D still 9/1 upside, volume is light at 493 mm, 28/30 DOW stocks in the green

CVX, AXP, BA, MCD, NKE, DIS, HD, V, UTX and GS all up +10% or more so far today

I went in a bit on NKE when the bell rung; will be interesting to see earnings call outcomes.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I went in a bit on NKE when the bell rung; will be interesting to see earnings call outcomes.

After seeing you post play I have been keeping my eyes on it, looks like I had a nice bump. My only corporate clients makes some games for them, big business there

steve

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I went in a bit on NKE when the bell rung; will be interesting to see earnings call outcomes.

The earnings calls are going to be bad, really bad. Buying here is trying to capture a value price for future earnings, next year. At least that is my view.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by dimag333

After seeing you post play I have been keeping my eyes on it, looks like I had a nice bump. My only corporate clients makes some games for them, big business there

steve

There's definitely some value to be had across the board; how much risk people are willing to take is the question. I still won't touch cruise lines, but the airlines are becoming more and more attractive. I nibbled at DAL the other day.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

The earnings calls are going to be bad, really bad. Buying here is trying to capture a value price for future earnings, next year. At least that is my view.

Agree

[FlashinLeather]

Originally Posted by beshannon

The earnings calls are going to be bad, really bad. Buying here is trying to capture a value price for future earnings, next year. At least that is my view.

Are you planning to buy following bad earning calls?

[Duey]

It's like we have a standard magic Tuesday rally after the standard Monday fall. And then we start our downward fall on Wednesday. And with the job numbers next week it could be a wild ride.
Do you think this is the new normal for the market for a while?

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

Are you planning to buy following bad earning calls?

I think most analysts will already assume very low Q2 followed by a recessionary tail in Q3/Q4 and 2021 (I would). One would argue that it is already priced in but with panic who knows

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Duey

Do you think this is the new normal for the market for a while?

Yes.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

but the airlines are becoming more and more attractive. I nibbled at DAL the other day.

Run Far and Run Fast from the Airlines.

Hawaiian Airlines just stopped all flights in and out of Hawaii until May 20th. They will have one flight a week out of LAX for critical use.
All the other airlines are said to follow.

Alaska just said their starting a 14days quarantine for all incoming.
So ALK will be stopping out of here too.

The dominoes are in big line for airlines ...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

Are you planning to buy following bad earning calls?

I have been buying and documenting my buys in this thread

I purchased CVX a Dow 30 stock today after seeing the CEO reaffirm his commitment to the dividend, looking at more research, their balance sheet, and the fact that I purchased it 50% off its 52 week high that will give me a dividend yield of 8%.

Everyone is different but how much lower would someone want it to fall? All the earning calls are going to be bad, that is priced in and is known. When does a person decide to buy? When earning and prices are at their peak? I like the value here even if the price declines to my stop loss order of down 10%.

Stocks are making a run into the close up 1800 now

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Duey

Run Far and Run Fast from the Airlines.

I bought puts on AAL today because the 20% (or close to it) bump today is ludicrous. Then I sold them, because I don't know what the stimulus bill is going to do or say or how the market will react.

I heard someone today on CNBC claim that American Airlines (all of them, I presume) have a payroll of $150M per day. That's every day people, regardless of how many flights there are. Now presumably they'll start laying off and furloughing people, if they haven't already, but that's a huge nut. Plus loans on all of those planes, gate fees, etc. that they still have to pay. And even if we all start going back to work soon, travel (I think) will still be restricted, if not by government then just by lack of demand. I know I don't want to travel somewhere if I don't have to, and risk getting stranded or quarantined.

My long-winded way of agreeing with @Duey.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Duey

Run Far and Run Fast from the Airlines.

Hawaiian Airlines just stopped all flights in and out of Hawaii until May 20th. They will have one flight a week out of LAX for critical use.
All the other airlines are said to follow.

Alaska just said their starting a 14days quarantine for all incoming.
So ALK will be stopping out of here too.

The dominoes are in big line for airlines ...

I agree, if you're looking to spend big and if you're looking at near-term only.

But in my opinion, people have short-term memories and will be right back to traveling, especially with the deals that airlines will throw out there to get people back onboard. People have short-term memories and my generation is ready to get back at it (look at all the spring breakers in FL as an example). People were flying post-9/11 pretty quickly too.

Will every airline make it out of this? Probably not.
Will the stocks be profitable in a year? Most likely not.
Will they be good 5-10 years down the road? IMO, most definitely at the prices that we're seeing.

So, a little bite here and there for the bigger airlines is quite alright in my book...just don't go spending 50% of your allotted cash on them. Of the stocks that I've bought in the last week, airlines have accounted for 1% of the cash spent. Again, a nibble.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I purchased CVX ...

Good idea, thanks for that. I'm in.

EDIT: Oops, ha. I am watching CNBC and the CEO of CVS, and so I bought them (CVS) not CVX.

I'm not buying oil/gas stocks right now. Even with that killer dividend.

[beshannon]

Airlines will come back but the big question is what will their revenue look like if business travel declines.

I would not touch airlines at this point and many of the analysts I follow wont touch them either. Same with the cruise industry, the hotel industry and the casinos. That entire space has been hurt badly and it will be a long ramp back up, unlike tech companies, biotech, industrials and consumer staples

[beshannon]

Airlines will come back but the big question is what will their revenue look like if business travel declines.

I would not touch airlines at this point and many of the analysts I follow wont touch them either. Same with the cruise industry, the hotel industry and the casinos. That entire space has been hurt badly and it will be a long ramp back up, unlike tech companies, biotech, industrials and consumer staples

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...airline-stocks

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Good idea, thanks for that. I'm in.

Ok please remember my posts are for my situation, everyone needs to do their own homework. I am not making recommendations just documenting.

In addition I just sold some BA and all of my CSCO