Rolex market insanity and I’m damn mad about it

[MasonDixon]

Originally Posted by DavidRT

Local AD here in Bay Area refused to even put my name down or take my information saying that there were other "loyal customers" that they would prefer to sell to before a new guy like me. I asked if I purchased with the store if it would make a difference and they said no flat out... felt a bit dejected.

No new customers. That's some business plan. Is this AD aware that their existing customers are not immortal?

[zewill]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

Why would they advertise for a watch that’s not available for immediate purchase? Insanity or just a ploy to get you to buy a TT Datejust? It could backfire. A man walks into an AD to buy the Submariner he just saw advertised in today’s paper. After he’s told it’s not available and who knows when it will be available, he walks over to the Omega Case and walks out with a Seamaster in any flavor he wants

Yes but when he looks at the Omega, does he still think about not being able to get the Rolex? Does that second choice make him doubt?
Probably ;)

[mbalmz]

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

So not sure what COVID has to do. Judging by incomings though on the forum seems like people are able to get the new models in a relatively short amount of time.

Originally Posted by RoscoPico

it seems to be all over the board right ? non-stop incomings, but others who wait years. i stopped paying attention already

the covid factor seems pretty logical. people have less outlets to spend money so online shopping is way up - look at amazon revenues

add to that decreased production of watches......

it's not just the higher demand but also the supply--production in geneva was entirely shut down for about 2 months I believe; that probably makes a serious dent in supply when it's already so outstripped by demand.

as to incomings on this forum, people who buy lots and lots of very expensive watches and have great AD relationships are much more prominently represented among TRF posters than among the general rolex-interested world population. incomings here mean very little for most people saving up and wanting to buy a submariner.

[TswaneNguni]

Rolex beginning to become common .. ?

[thenewrick]

There's also similar online reselling habits happening with Nvidia 3080GTX video cards and Playstation 5's as well as some popular sneakers. It's a new trend to speculate on hype goods and use technology like bots or big bulk spending packages like Grey's to change supply artificially.

[mmaggi]

Join the club of frustration. I've given up on ever purchasing a brand new Rolex from an AD. Rolex lovers would rather invest in a Rolex than Apple stock. It makes absolutely no sense to me why someone would rather buy a watch for an investment instead of stock.



Re Covid: If you play the market, you made alot of $$$ the last 6 months, enough to buy a couple of watches.

[MacanS]

Originally Posted by Posh Gentleman

not sure I follow. you buy quality stocks, slowly, and let it compound for years.

that's how you get rich.

It’s that easy!

[McinRolex]

Originally Posted by mmaggi

Join the club of frustration. I've given up on ever purchasing a brand new Rolex from an AD. Rolex lovers would rather invest in a Rolex than Apple stock. It makes absolutely no sense to me why someone would rather buy a watch for an investment instead of stock.



Re Covid: If you play the market, you made alot of $$$ the last 6 months, enough to buy a couple of watches.

No matter how much I made on the market, it doesn't justify to pay for something over MSRP. At least for me.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by mmaggi

Re Covid: If you play the market, you made alot of $$$ the last 6 months, enough to buy a couple of watches.

I know several in my social circle, that made enough money from stocks this year to buy a house. Or a couple of nice new Porsche's. I made quite a few bucks myself, and this year has been a blessing from heaven. lol

yes, buying a Rolex watch just as an "investment" makes no sense. unless you can buy several of Daytona's at MSRP, in which case that would be a fabulous investment indeed.

[mmaggi]

Originally Posted by Posh Gentleman

yes, buying a Rolex watch just as an "investment" makes no sense. unless you can buy several of Daytona's at MSRP, in which case that would be a fabulous investment indeed.

I would much rather purchase 1,000 shares of Apple stock at $149 in Dec. 2018. That trade makes any purchase of a Rolex for investment purposes pale in comparison. ;)

Yes... I too know quite a few that made enough to purchase a home or a Porsche the last 6 months.

[mmaggi]

Originally Posted by McinRolex

No matter how much I made on the market, it doesn't justify to pay for something over MSRP. At least for me.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by mmaggi

I would much rather purchase 1,000 shares of Apple stock at $149 in Dec. 2018. That trade makes any purchase of a Rolex for investment purposes pale in comparison. ;)

Yes... I too know quite a few that made enough to purchase a home or a Porsche the last 6 months.

Funny you mention that :)

I was one of those guys backing up the truck with Apple stock, back in December of 2018. I bought over 650 shares, if I remember correctly, at $140 a piece.

Then, last year, I sold all of Apple at $230 a piece. (stupid mistake, which I still regret) I thought Apple was fully valued back then. Boy was that wrong.

Good thing is that I used the proceed from that apple sale last year to invest in other stocks, some of which have gone up crazy this year. So, I guess I did ok, but I still regret selling apple :)

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Posh Gentleman

Then, last year, I sold all of Apple at $230 a piece. (stupid mistake, which I still regret) I thought Apple was fully valued back then. Boy was that wrong.

... but I still regret selling apple :)

Nobody in history has gone bankrupt by selling at a profit .

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by Posh Gentleman

not sure I follow. you buy quality stocks, slowly, and let it compound for years.

that's how you get rich.

No thanks

[mmaggi]

Originally Posted by Posh Gentleman

Funny you mention that :)

I was one of those guys backing up the truck with Apple stock, back in December of 2018. I bought over 650 shares, if I remember correctly, at $140 a piece.

Then, last year, I sold all of Apple at $230 a piece. (stupid mistake, which I still regret) I thought Apple was fully valued back then. Boy was that wrong.

Good thing is that I used the proceed from that apple sale last year to invest in other stocks, some of which have gone up crazy this year. So, I guess I did ok, but I still regret selling apple :)

Good buddy of mine bought a ton at $90. Sold at $130. Then bought again at $170. Sold at $270. He's kicking himself as well.

But you know what they say: Pigs get slaughtered. ;)

[mmaggi]

What's really scary is that Apple is valued at $2 trillion and it has yet to sell a single 5G device. Talk about over-valued.

[Sub Capt.]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

Why would they advertise for a watch that’s not available for immediate purchase? Insanity or just a ploy to get you to buy a TT Datejust? It could backfire. A man walks into an AD to buy the Submariner he just saw advertised in today’s paper. After he’s told it’s not available and who knows when it will be available, he walks over to the Omega Case and walks out with a Seamaster in any flavor he wants

Or the SA shows him a nice Datejust 41 or OP 41 that still says Rolex On the dial and he buys that. And the hook is set....

Getting potential customers in the store is always good.

[Sub Capt.]

Originally Posted by mmaggi

What's really scary is that Apple is valued at $2 trillion and it has yet to sell a single 5G device. Talk about over-valued.

Everyone has a phone.... most want a new iPhone.... $$$$

9 out of 10 people don’t even wear or care about a watch....

[mrmclovin]

Originally Posted by pickettt

So they are to encourage a customer to visit a store...so they can be told in person that they don’t have what they’re looking for?

[legacy404]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

There's also similar online reselling habits happening with Nvidia 3080GTX video cards and Playstation 5's as well as some popular sneakers. It's a new trend to speculate on hype goods and use technology like bots or big bulk spending packages like Grey's to change supply artificially.

Not to mention a lot of people at home doing online shopping for fun. Seems like people trying to be flippers now for extra income...From Nintendo Switches, sneakers, etc. People taking up flipping as a second job, due to the prevalence of merchant apps going mobile, like Mercari, Letgo, ebay, chrono24 etc. Makes it a lot easier to list items and find buyers.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Nobody in history has gone bankrupt by selling at a profit .

haha true, brother.

only exception to that rule is you sell a winner, and rotate your funds to an "undervalued" stock that turns out to be a long term loser.

it's much better to let your big winners run for many years, and trim a bit here and there, rather than making drastic changes in your portfolio.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by mmaggi

What's really scary is that Apple is valued at $2 trillion and it has yet to sell a single 5G device. Talk about over-valued.

yea all of the gains in apple stock this year came from multiple expansion, without the top line growth.

one thing is for sure: apple isn't a cheap stock at all, given PEG ratio, going forward

I'd much rather invest my money in $10-$30B tech companies growing top line 30-50% p.a., with 30-40% cash flow margin.

[LeftHookLacey]

Originally Posted by pickettt

So they are to encourage a customer to visit a store...so they can be told in person that they don’t have what they’re looking for?

If my experience counts for anything, they want you there so they can bait/switch youto something else.

I've had several situations like this:
Me: I'm looking for an Explorer or maybe OP b/c I want a tiem only piece.
AD: Oh yes, those are nice but there is a shorage, but we have this beautiful DJ and this other TT DJ, both beautiful
Me: yeah, but they both have a date compilaction, so not what I'm looking for
AD: oh yes, but we have these in stock

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

So a Rolex is a "safe investment"? But investing in a booming record setting stock market isn't? I'm confused.

There a a million better investments than a luxury watch which nobody in their right mind "needs", FWIW

Stock market is crazy- that's actually one of the reasons why I don't have a Rolex right now...to make it happen, I would have to liquidate some stocks and I'm just not really going to do that right now.

Plus the only new Rolex I want is the white dial OP 39 which is now a pipe dream since Sept 1st. I'm considering the Exp which I never like in photos but may be different in person.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Stock market is crazy- that's actually one of the reasons why I don't have a Rolex right now...to make it happen, I would have to liquidate some stocks and I'm just not really going to do that right now.

Plus the only new Rolex I want is the white dial OP 39 which is now a pipe dream since Sept 1st. I'm considering the Exp which I never like in photos but may be different in person.

That is a great watch. I am not a fan of greys, but if they are reputable, the price is right and the watch is discontinued, why not? I just took a quick look, with not much research I seen a few close to MSRP. Give it a try. Life is short and 6k for a Rolex is not crazy!

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by JRell

That is a great watch. I am not a fan of greys, but if they are reputable, the price is right and the watch is discontinued, why not? I just took a quick look, with not much research I seen a few close to MSRP. Give it a try. Life is short and 6k for a Rolex is not crazy!

Whoah. I was willing to spend a little over $6K for a new white dial OP, but I don't know where. I've seen them as high as $9K and even $10K+ I just won't do that.


Can you pm me links?

[UK_]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

I’m not an economist, but im always a bit perplexed when I see the “free market” and “capitalism” posts here. The global markets have been massively propped (especially this year) by the governments pumping in trillions of dollars. People are also receiving stimulus checks, their employers are been given huge handouts and (in the uk at least) millions of jobs (approx 10 million apparently) are being supported by the furlough scheme.

I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the markets are “healthy” and that the world is buying Rolex again. When the markets tanked, Rolex prices did likewise in March / April.

I believe the true free market and capitalism no longer exists in its true form and that the increased popularity of Rolex is, in part, contributed to by these markets and the huge amount of government spending.

I could well be wrong, but that’s my opinion.

Great post.

We now live in a different economic area that none of us have seen before - governments are more comfortable with big borrowing and permanent deficients, QE is the go to tool and large national debts are seen as more normal.

Money supply right now is massive - a mixture of QE, government spending and banks not calling in loans, means the volume of money is huge, bearing in mind most money is ‘created’ and lent by commercial banks.

Although some aspects remain - the government (uk) are pretty open that furlough has to end, and businesses have to go to the wall. Those that do are the inefficient ones, survival of the fittest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[UK_]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

I am astounded at the angst and rancor. And I just don't get it.

This model was just released. There is more demand than supply. How is that ridiculous?

Rolex makes a limited number. How is that ridiculous?

AD's get a limited number. How is that ridiculous?

Sometimes you can luck out and get one at MSRP from an AD without the cherished relationship. But AD's often reserve their limited supply to those who have spent a lot of money and/or time building a relationship. So, those lucky few are really getting the watch for SS plus the value of what it cost them to build the relationship. How is that ridiculous?

It is a luxury item, not a necessity.

There are lots of luxury items I fancy, but lack the funds to purchase. And sometimes I have the money to purchase them, but they are in short supply and I do not have an established relationship with the vendor.

How is a SS Rolex hot model new release any different?

Well said!!


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[dauster]

Originally Posted by DavidRT

Local AD here in Bay Area refused to even put my name down or take my information saying that there were other "loyal customers" that they would prefer to sell to before a new guy like me. I asked if I purchased with the store if it would make a difference and they said no flat out... felt a bit dejected.

welcome to my world ... let's f*** up these bay area ADs together :)

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by UK_

Great post.

We now live in a different economic area that none of us have seen before - governments are more comfortable with big borrowing and permanent deficients, QE is the go to tool and large national debts are seen as more normal.

Money supply right now is massive - a mixture of QE, government spending and banks not calling in loans, means the volume of money is huge, bearing in mind most money is ‘created’ and lent by commercial banks.

Although some aspects remain - the government (uk) are pretty open that furlough has to end, and businesses have to go to the wall. Those that do are the inefficient ones, survival of the fittest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks.

A true capitalist and a true believer of the free markets would support allowing failing businesses to fail.

Slight de-railing here, but what we’ve seen over the last few years is a significant number of businesses expand at an incredible pace by taking on huge debt.

To my mind, the governments on both sides of the pond have kept businesses afloat that would likely have gone to the wall even without the pandemic. That should never have happened. Bad business practices are being rewarded with seemingly unlimited amounts of government cash.