Is the shortage real or artificially created ?

[Burlington]

I read a post on here earlier talking about the shortage of steel sport models being intentionally induced, rather than as a consequence of higher demand and lower productivity.

It’s not like manufacturing these types of things can be increased overnight, and once invested it will need to payback over many years.

On top, demand is higher than ever and Covid may well have had a negative effect on production speed. Plus Rolex doesn’t seem to like the consequences of the shortage with flipping etc. (Of course though strong secondary is desirable, but maybe not 2xretail.

So find it hard to imagine they have done all this by choice and design

[Jimmy66]

My AD told me that Rolex will soon be expanding their facilities to produce more watches.

Take that with the usual grain of salt that should accompany all "my AD told me" statements.

[Lemonvr6]

Man if there were only other threads on this

[Binky1]

Originally Posted by Lemonvr6

Man if there were only other threads on this

This

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Lemonvr6

Man if there were only other threads on this

Does TRF have that newfangled technology called a Search Engine? You know, so the same topic does not get posting time and time again?

[FTX I]

Truth is no one knows my friend. Only speculation so far.

[Polarexplorerii]

Ibtl

[BogdanS]

Originally Posted by Polarexplorerii

Ibtl

+1


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[GB-man]

It’s not just Rolex choosing not to meet demand. Every AD has a safe full of hot watches. They all play games.

[jerryguo]

of course artificial, Rolex could’ve increased the production to whatever they want to but they decide not to. it’s mass produced item after all


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[Dan GSR]

100% fake
My buddy with purchase history got a 41mm sub in 24 hours
I can't even get an OP

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Dan GSR

100% fake
My buddy with purchase history got a 41mm sub in 24 hours
I can't even get an OP

Not fake at all. Laws of supply and demand. I worked for an AD in marketing, they sit there and wait for inventory and when it comes in, they call their customers and sell some watches... geez.....

[AD337]

Originally Posted by garyk

Not fake at all. Laws of supply and demand. I worked for an AD in marketing, they sit there and wait for inventory and when it comes in, they call their customers and sell some watches... geez.....

True story

[Rado63]

As a collector, there are several watches of different brands, that I look for online to see if there is one for sale. Several pieces I search for and I can not find one, or maybe just a handful in various condition and price. If you google search any current Rolex in production you will find hundreds to buy. Don't confuse difficulty to purchase a watch from the AD as a shortage in supply.

[sgwatchguy]

Rolex has a board of directors that oversee the executive management (as all companies do). Now imagine the CEO of Rolex explaining to them that after the significant amount of capital invested and the amped up marketing expense on the submariner and OP line, he was going to send LESS product out the door that in the past so that the greys could do MORE business. Doesn’t make sense, does it?

Once the product is out the door from Rolex, all the games begin. The reason Rolex is ‘reported to be reporting’ higher revenues is cause they’re shipping more product and increasing price/margins for it.

There’s just more people buying more watches all over the world.

[vtsakiris]

Originally Posted by Dan GSR

100% fake
My buddy with purchase history got a 41mm sub in 24 hours
I can't even get an OP

Why don't you ask you buddy to get you an op from his ad!

as above ▲▼ so below

[garyk]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

Rolex has a board of directors that oversee the executive management (as all companies do). Now imagine the CEO of Rolex explaining to them that after the significant amount of capital invested and the amped up marketing expense on the submariner and OP line, he was going to send LESS product out the door that in the past so that the greys could do MORE business. Doesn’t make sense, does it?

Once the product is out the door from Rolex, all the games begin. The reason Rolex is ‘reported to be reporting’ higher revenues is cause they’re shipping more product and increasing price/margins for it.

There’s just more people buying more watches all over the world.

Yes!!

[Wcdhtwn]

Is it real or artificially created? Yes.

[aayates]

I want a 41mm sub and I can't get one at MSRP. The dealers in Atlanta are cordial but they laugh at the thought of having a good supply of SS watches. That's not by accident; why would Rolex advertise new watches that can't be had in major cities across the world? Strange to me. Must be a strategy but I can't figure it out. If the AD's could charge more than retail (like car dealers) then it might make sense but they can't. I don't get it.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Wcdhtwn

Is it real or artificially created? Yes.

+1

Both statements can be true at the same time here.

I remember in 2017 my store telling me they were changing allocation system. I chalked it up to “things AD’s say”, but this one of course turned out totally true and fast forward to today where even allocated Subs are hard to get for newbies.

[JP(Canada)]

Originally Posted by Wcdhtwn

Is it real or artificially created? Yes.

Exactly.

[Setarip]

Yawn

Nothing new here that hasn’t been posted a thousand times before.

TRF Search engine works great.


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[aayates]

Originally Posted by Setarip

Yawn

Nothing new here that hasn’t been posted a thousand times before.

TRF Search engine works great.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Still don't have a good answer.

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by jerryguo

of course artificial, Rolex could’ve increased the production to whatever they want to but they decide not to. it’s mass produced item after all


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This is the aspect that interests me most of the whole thing.

Just how easy would it be to ramp up production?

The tooling and investment could take years to get in place.

They could switch the manufacture of PM models into SS, but they then erode their margin (hence why AP has been intentionally doing the reverse)

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by FTX I

Truth is no one knows my friend. Only speculation so far.

I always think of it with a manufacturing hat on, and just what it might take to ramp up production. On top of the capital investment, also workforce planning and training + rescheduling shift patterns etc. Discussions with local unions etc. not a flick the switch overnight decision for sure.

Then throw the business economics into it, and why fill more production capacity with lower margined stainless pieces than PM (seeing as how both models move fast anyway)

[Marcjvr]

Every time I start to think the shortage is real I type Rolex into Chrono24 and hit go.

76,000 of them are available for sale right now...

[aayates]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Every time I start to think the shortage is real I type Rolex into Chrono24 and hit go.

76,000 of them are available for sale right now...

Not a one.

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

Rolex has a board of directors that oversee the executive management (as all companies do). Now imagine the CEO of Rolex explaining to them that after the significant amount of capital invested and the amped up marketing expense on the submariner and OP line, he was going to send LESS product out the door that in the past so that the greys could do MORE business. Doesn’t make sense, does it?

Once the product is out the door from Rolex, all the games begin. The reason Rolex is ‘reported to be reporting’ higher revenues is cause they’re shipping more product and increasing price/margins for it.

There’s just more people buying more watches all over the world.

This makes sense to me.

It would be interesting to know if the % of SS vs. PM manufactured has changed over the last few years as they move to a more premium positioning.

The SS demand fuelling the brand halo and steering more into the gold models.

[MILGAUSS88]

Well if the "artificial" shortage prevents you from finding what you want at your AD, guess what. It's no longer artificial.

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Does TRF have that newfangled technology called a Search Engine? You know, so the same topic does not get posting time and time again?

This!


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