Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Personally I would rather invest in the companies that have huge cash flows, management teams that demonstrate they can achieve solid revenue growth WITH corresponding earnings growth, predictable business models, low amounts of debt, and best in class products. The tech companies I believe do fit that bill are AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, ADBE, NFLX, GOOG, CRM, some of the credit card companies (V, AXP, MA). I'm sure there are others, but those are the ones I have some stake in.

The recent hot IPOs of doordash and airbnb reminded me of the story of groupon. Remember groupon? That online coupon business that was supposed to change how people shopped locally and a hit in the e commerce space? Well, look at them now:

I don't disagree - I'm in 10 holdings, and the top 4 by weight for me are SE, GOOGL, AMZN, PINS, FB.

I'm not interested in the other IPOs; U has a strong business model and is a 3D / gaming leader, and I got in at what I feel is a good price. Otherwise, I wouldn't be chasing here.

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I don't disagree - I'm in 10 holdings, and the top 4 by weight for me are SE, GOOGL, AMZN, PINS, FB.

I'm not interested in the other IPOs; U has a strong business model and is a 3D / gaming leader, and I got in at what I feel is a good price. Otherwise, I wouldn't be chasing here.

Didn't mean for that post to be a rant against you or anyone else- more just an opportunity for me to be a keyboard warrior and vent a bit for myself

[logo]

https://apple.news/AE3ikPtE4SlSeUaOKBeFqeg

For anyone in the telehealth space. I was in OTRK, sold it this morning after seeing this in anticipation of it dropping a lot like TDOC and AMWL this morning. GDRX got hammered similarly a few weeks back from Amazon news, and hasn’t fully recovered. Figure I’ll let the dust settle and re-evaluate.

By the same token, I’m glad to see Amazon enter this space, shows how “in demand” it’s going to be. I knew they had been doing this for their own employees, but it seems they are starting to expand. One thing for sure is that the AWS network and Amazon’s AI capabilities can likely be leveraged to a far greater degree than existing telehealth businesses. I would have expected Google to be the first mega company to do this, but expect they are not far behind (though they do own a stake in AMWL I believe).

[JParm]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Didn't mean for that post to be a rant against you or anyone else- more just an opportunity for me to be a keyboard warrior and vent a bit for myself

No offense taken at all! A safe place to unload our thoughts and feelings on this market.

[Mr. Miami]

anybody here invest in Kevin O’leary Oshares ETF? I attended a live stream last week and he was discussing his investments. bought some OGIG internet ETF.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Tomorrow is going to be awesome, BCRX received approval for their oral HAE drug this evening. Congrats to those in on this one! CALA and CRVS next

Great runs with BCRX and CALA over the last few weeks! CALA doesn't have data yet but expected soon so more risk vs. BCRX.

Same for CRVS with data pending, every time this one drops below $4 I've been adding. With a six figure share position I'm tapped now just like BCRX.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/mass...investing.html

Shots fired at Robinhood.

[Zack21]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/mass...investing.html

Shots fired at Robinhood.

I have no idea what it means to "gameify and/or gamify" investing and admittedly I have never looked at the Robinhood app but unless the Robinhood
business entity is foolish enough to warrant or guarantee some type of result from investing (which I seriously doubt has occurred), the suit and/or claims asserted by Mass. seem frivolous.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/fed-...mployment.html

Fed to keep doing what they've been doing since COVID...should keep markets relatively happy.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Was thinking about the internet bubble yesterday and how much rampant speculation is going on in the marketplace at the moment. Sound security analysis has gone completely out the window for many investors- which creates an extremely dangerous environment for those investors but also the entire marketplace if panic starts to set in. If one can acknowledge that what they're doing indeed is speculating, then that is fine- self awareness of engaging in risky behavior is critical. This whole idea that prices of stocks of companies that continue to burn cash and never bring in earnings continue to skyrocket is really really crazy.

Roku- one of Ark's largest holdings- is a perfect example of this. Their track record for growing revenues is fine, but they have not been able to generate positive EPS for shareholders. Meanwhile, the price has skyrocketed. No offense to Cathy Wood, but no amount of hand waving and cherry picked data to support her investment theses talking about the future is going to convince me to ever by a company like this. I'll happily wait till Roku starts generating EPS momentum before buying in. Yes, the reward for me jumping on when they're doing well won't be as large, but it's better than getting burned on my investment.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...U/roku/revenue
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c.../roku/pe-ratio

I bought one share of ArkG (genomics ETF) about a month ago just to see what was going on with it- and I sold it yesterday after it was up about 30% in 1 month. Did all of those companies in that ETF magically increase their earnings by an average of 30% across the board to justify such an increase? I doubt it. Investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and investment decisions made by individuals should be weighed with more prudence than "I saw it on a meme on reddit," or "some woman who runs a big ETF told me this is the future."

The whole Ark craze has reminded me of a great quote by Howard Marks:
"Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong."
That is precisely what happened during the internet bubble. People got a little too far ahead of themselves, and got smoked as a result.

At some point, the house of cards that those funds are built on will likely come tumbling down- a few EPS misses by major holdings in those funds and it could be a disaster. I don't doubt that there are a handful of companies in there that are major winners in the long run, either- I'm sure there are.

Personally I would rather invest in the companies that have huge cash flows, management teams that demonstrate they can achieve solid revenue growth WITH corresponding earnings growth, predictable business models, low amounts of debt, and best in class products. The tech companies I believe do fit that bill are AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, ADBE, NFLX, GOOG, CRM, some of the credit card companies (V, AXP, MA). I'm sure there are others, but those are the ones I have some stake in. AMD is probably my most speculative play, but there is a trend towards excellent revenue growth since Lisa Su's hiring, they have great product, the demand for that product is rabid, etc. DIS is also on their way to big, predictable subscription based business- and they have some of the best intellectual property in the entertainment industry, so they should be okay as well despite the covid parks debacle this year.

The recent hot IPOs of doordash and airbnb reminded me of the story of groupon. Remember groupon? That online coupon business that was supposed to change how people shopped locally and a hit in the e commerce space? Well, look at them now:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...-price-history

8 years later, and THEY'RE STILL BURNING CASH. Also look at those prices at the IPO- that must have been a wonderful moment for management to cash out... I guess my point is that operational efficiency matters a lot. A company could have the best thing since sliced bread but still have terrible operational efficiency and be a loser in the long run.

Also great call on the SNOW puts 7sins- I'm not into options but you really nailed it with the timing on that one. The valuation on SNOW is still absurd- I'm surprised Buffett hasn't cashed out his stake yet.

Well said! I agree with all the points you've mentioned above.

[Kliminator]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

A couple friends at different companies use PaySafe products and like it. One said he wishes it had better reporting.

Personally, I’ve never used their products directly although kinda indirectly for my kids via Fortnite & other games; I’ve also heard about their online betting payment handling space through my $DKNG position.

I started looking at the SEC fillings and opened a position at $10.91. yet Another SPAC, ticker = $BFT. This time, Bill Foley is involved and their target is more i-gaming.

Interesting company but still appears early. Risky.

Some links for folks.

Investor deck.
https://www.paysafe.com/fileadmin/us...esentation.pdf

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/12/0...spac-deal.html

https://www.paysafe.com/en/paysafegr...nounce-merger/

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bla...le-51607450508

https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1818355

Anyone else pick some BFT up? I bought some shares at 14.80 last week. Gonna hold on to em and see what happens

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Zack21

I have no idea what it means to "gameify and/or gamify" investing and admittedly I have never looked at the Robinhood app but unless the Robinhood
business entity is foolish enough to warrant or guarantee some type of result from investing (which I seriously doubt has occurred), the suit and/or claims asserted by Mass. seem frivolous.

nothings gonna happen. it's super easy to be reckless on robinhood though. their ui is so simple that you can just download and instantly go and lose thousands on options lol, even worse is people just go straight into trading on margin. they also let you instantly use your money which i believe at most other brokerages requires a certain amount of equity in your account first? at least etrade does

[Mifune]

this is a thing of BEAUTY!

[jaisonline]

I downloaded the RobinHood app last Spring and registered. Then saw it didn’t have an option to add beneficiaries. Haven’t opened it since. I do like to take a peak at robintracker from time to time though.

https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/...beneficiaries/

“ We don’t currently allow users to name a beneficiary, and we don’t offer automatic transfer on death registration. In the event of a death, we’ll work with the executor of the estate to collect proper documentation and dissolve the account appropriately.”

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/mass...investing.html

Shots fired at Robinhood.

[JParm]

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...and-Tech-Reach

U and SNAP to partner up. Not invested in SNAP, but U is a favorite of mine.

[jaisonline]

I started a small position in OpenDoor (aka $ipob that will soon be $open) 2 weeks ago. I do this when researching a company. Having the position is like a reminder for me to get the research done plus this is can be a true disruptive company (like Zillow is trying) in an industry that has been slow to adapt with outsiders.

In between reading their SEC submitted docs & investor press releases, I stumbled upon youtu.be/yyfdV3FySE8. Some good points made by the creator but my concern are the real estate agencies.

All of the following are from my experiences buying 1 house, helping my father buy his last house & looking for a NJ shore / vacation home over the last 2 years. Additionally, I have 4 friends with real estimate licenses (2 are active full-time agents)

I think the main huddle for OpenDoor’s success is the “old school mobster”-like control on residential listings.
No offense intended but let’s be honest, many agents can be sharks & untrustworthy. Home buying / selling is a very frustrating experience because of bad and greedy agents : refusing to split commissions, buying the great deals themselves to flip / rent, extracting even more fees from both parties during paperwork, hiding items like old oil tanks, etc... , etc...

I will do more research. Just curious what are thoughts here. I know $ipob is a fav of many high profile individual investors.

Some links.
Investor presentation
https://www.opendoor.com/w/wp-conten...esentation.pdf

https://www.wsj.com/articles/opendoo...0215341?page=1

https://www.opendoor.com/w/faq/agent-work-with-opendoor

https://www.housingwire.com

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/17/sec-...kes-money.html

More action against Robinhood...

[7sins]

Anyone else long into FDX with earnings today? I typically don't play earnings but appears FDX at sub $290 is a steal given all the recent upgrades and PO changes, per below. Saw a pullback over the last week with resistance at $300 and half normal volume each day. I can't imagine they beat earnings as much as they did in Q3 when they beat by over $2.20 and printed at $4.87. Consensus is at $4.01 for Q4 so I would have to think FDX beats again today given their continued surge in demand and surcharges they print at a similar Q3 EPS in the high 4s. Only concern is I don't believe this quarter's results include black friday or cyber monday shipping. Outlook should be solid with holiday season in full swing and them being a major player in shipping the vaccines. Been loading into June $320C to give it a few months if we see any near term vol.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I started a small position in OpenDoor (aka $ipob that will soon be $open) 2 weeks ago. I do this when researching a company. Having the position is like a reminder for me to get the research done plus this is can be a true disruptive company (like Zillow is trying) in an industry that has been slow to adapt with outsiders.

In between reading their SEC submitted docs & investor press releases, I stumbled upon youtu.be/yyfdV3FySE8. Some good points made by the creator but my concern are the real estate agencies.

All of the following are from my experiences buying 1 house, helping my father buy his last house & looking for a NJ shore / vacation home over the last 2 years. Additionally, I have 4 friends with real estimate licenses (2 are active full-time agents)

I think the main huddle for OpenDoor’s success is the “old school mobster”-like control on residential listings.
No offense intended but let’s be honest, many agents can be sharks & untrustworthy. Home buying / selling is a very frustrating experience because of bad and greedy agents : refusing to split commissions, buying the great deals themselves to flip / rent, extracting even more fees from both parties during paperwork, hiding items like old oil tanks, etc... , etc...

I will do more research. Just curious what are thoughts here. I know $ipob is a fav of many high profile individual investors.

Some links.
Investor presentation
https://www.opendoor.com/w/wp-conten...esentation.pdf

https://www.wsj.com/articles/opendoo...0215341?page=1

https://www.opendoor.com/w/faq/agent-work-with-opendoor

https://www.housingwire.com

I do not have an open position yet, however I thought this was an interesting read.

https://investorplace.com/2020/12/th...ock-exhibit-a/

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Anyone else long into FDX with earnings today?

Yes I am as well as UPS. I have been in UPS since April and I will hold both into next year

[7sins]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes I am as well as UPS. I have been in UPS since April and I will hold both into next year

Been a good ride for you, I bought some FDX back in May and took profits earlier this month before going back in this week.

Last note for today, would highly recommend everyone look into TAK which is Takeda Pharmaceutical, the largest Japanese Pharm company. ARK funds has been buying a decent volume almost every day the last two weeks. Take a quick read through the below, if they get this FDA approval (granted FDA priority review) it is going to be HUGE for them. Jan 2022 leaps are dirt cheap, I have backed the truck up into Jan 2022 $20C

U.S. Food and Drug Administration Accepts New Drug Application for Review, Grants Priority Review for Takeda’s TAK-721 (budesonide oral suspension) for the Treatment of Eosinophilic Esophagitis https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-foo...130500633.html

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Been a good ride for you, I bought some FDX back in May and took profits earlier this month before going back in this week.

Last note for today, would highly recommend everyone look into TAK which is Takeda Pharmaceutical, the largest Japanese Pharm company. ARK funds has been buying a decent volume almost every day the last two weeks. Take a quick read through the below, if they get this FDA approval (granted FDA priority review) it is going to be HUGE for them. Jan 2022 leaps are dirt cheap, I have backed the truck up into Jan 2022 $20C

U.S. Food and Drug Administration Accepts New Drug Application for Review, Grants Priority Review for Takeda’s TAK-721 (budesonide oral suspension) for the Treatment of Eosinophilic Esophagitis https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-foo...130500633.html

thanks again for the heads up as usual. i hopped into this one with jan 2022 20c as well

[Hard_Six]

Originally Posted by huncho

thanks again for the heads up as usual. i hopped into this one with jan 2022 20c as well

Same. Also bought some FDX calls. Thanks @7sins

[jaisonline]

Thanks 7sins. I’ll ask my wife about this as she’s a GI Hepatologist.

Those calls are pretty cheap though.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Been a good ride for you, I bought some FDX back in May and took profits earlier this month before going back in this week.

Last note for today, would highly recommend everyone look into TAK which is Takeda Pharmaceutical, the largest Japanese Pharm company. ARK funds has been buying a decent volume almost every day the last two weeks. Take a quick read through the below, if they get this FDA approval (granted FDA priority review) it is going to be HUGE for them. Jan 2022 leaps are dirt cheap, I have backed the truck up into Jan 2022 $20C

U.S. Food and Drug Administration Accepts New Drug Application for Review, Grants Priority Review for Takeda’s TAK-721 (budesonide oral suspension) for the Treatment of Eosinophilic Esophagitis https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-foo...130500633.html

Thanks 7sins. Jumped in as well.


As my contribution, I'd like to recommend everyone look into VROOM.

Bill Gates backed company (he owns 10% if I recall correctly). They just acquired Car Story for $120M in cash/stock this week and are sitting on $1B plus in cash according to their M&A filings.

I do believe their run up post IPO was over bought. However, I think going forward they're showing good momentum to challenge Carvana in the delivery car space.

[Flex368]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Anyone else long into FDX with earnings today?

Yup.

[piratepress]

Originally Posted by Mifune

this is a thing of BEAUTY!

So who else is jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon?

[GB-man]

FedEx beats by nearly 20 % on EPS and down 3 1/2 lol Guess a homerun was expected or was it the guidance?

[jaisonline]

Spoke with the wife. She knows the company but said EoE isn’t a large enough problem (which is a good thing).

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Thanks 7sins. I’ll ask my wife about this as she’s a GI Hepatologist.

Those calls are pretty cheap though.

[logo]

Anyone with thoughts on BB? I opened a small starter position last week. Earnings call today, the exclusive partnership with Amazon is interesting. Lots of automobile/EV clients, governments, SpaceX etc. in a growing technology sector, though current financials not necessarily reflecting that. After hours action is all over the place lol.