Talking Stocks 2.0

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Agree with both of you on COTY. We already have good insight into ER as IPAD validated market strength and increased guidance. LRCLY validated cosmetics. So I think behind the scenes sales are very strong. My two concerns are if any supply chain disruptions are disruptive to revenue and also the impact of China sales given their resurgence of covid or just in general due to delta last quarter. Guidance will be key here. Remember KKR and JAB have an ENOMOROUS number of shares sub $5. I fear everytime we get close to $10 they unload into the market, which is evident by the YTD chart. Anyways, it is still one of my biggest positions, I noted here trimming at 9.50 and then backing the truck back up when dipped below $8 recently.

I am waiting for this run up again to ER to then sell any calls with a strike higher than $10 into 2023 $7C and trim gains into cash. Will limit my upside but ITM calls here have proven to be better trades and I can put any fear away with more shares sold from KKR/JAB ~$10 but still have plenty upside. Just my .02.

are you still in any 2022s? my biggest position in coty is in jan 23 12c so if we get closer to 10 i might trim those and buy back later into something less otm. current delta on these is pretty bad so i wouldn't miss out on much gains with the way this stock has been acting. stocks that only start going up a few weeks before earnings then fall/stay flat for months after are so confusing to long lol

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

Wait Eric, so whats the ticker again?

Been a solid ride thus far

LOL! Have I told you about ATEC yet?

Originally Posted by Working4better

Just bought ATEC 12.50 Call for 04/14/22
4 contract for $1000
Is that the way it works?
Newbie getting feet wet here thanks

Everyone has their own strategies but assuming you got in at a $2.50 premium I snagged 50 of the same contracts myself this morning at $2.40. Giddy up!

[Working4better]

Originally Posted by sokoloka

LOL! Have I told you about ATEC yet?







Everyone has their own strategies but assuming you got in at a $2.50 premium I snagged 50 of the same contracts myself this morning at $2.40. Giddy up!

Hmm let me check, I'm using Robinhood since I'm alway on the move. Would it be the same as limit price? Because yes it's says 2.50. I got 4 as that's all I could afford and wish to wager till I make more profits.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Nice. Still kinda surprised they haven’t been acquired with their quality products.

Fellow SONO holder. I also own SPOT.

[Romeojk]

I just want to say thank you to those here.

My 401K portfolio grew 62% in one year due to changes I made after reading comments here and doing some investigating of the companies on my own.

If I stayed in the index funds they returned about 35%. So a great year either way.

Thanks again, and especially thanks to beshannon and jpeezy as I handpicked from mostly their choices and conversations.

Thanks for sharing and good luck to everyone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[What’s The Time]

FYI

https://www.ticketnews.com/2021/11/v...s-november-15/

[kwr]

Originally Posted by sokoloka

ATEC all day.

alright i'll bite....why do you like ATEC so much?

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Pure manipulation on SABR, easy to tell on the low volume sells at market open to quickly move this down. They BEAT eps by over 8% and missed revenue by 1%/$4M which is peanuts. Now have over $1B in cash. YoY rev looks incredible and trending in the right direction, YoY rev is up over 50%, bookings up and going into holiday season. The lack of guidance, typical for SABR caused this downtrend but to be down in the low 9s is absurd. Not financial advice, just my .02 but I am buying as much as I can here sub $10 and will continue to average down if we go below $8. Saw this happen earlier this year when they did a $300M offering, which btw they haven't even had to tap into, and stock bounced from 9.45 back to $12. Not worried at all here on 2023 calls.




For more positive news, those on the AUPH train, two big PR releases today.

BMY cancels lupysis study, this is HUGE, remember same rumor that they were in buyout negotiations for AUPH

PFE sells lupsyis canidate https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotec...gainst-bristol

So you have two major weight bio companies, canceling their lupysis efforts in pursuit, of presumably, the blockbuster AUPH drug which is superior to the underwhelming peers and soon to be SoC. Hopefully a bidding war is going on behind the scenes, I doubt we will see much from PG on ER tomorrow, but personally even with the 200% runup, I am not selling a single option.

I agree.
Booking holdings doing well…

[jaisonline]

Anyone else tempted to write covered calls against their Lcid shares? Note: their 6 month shares unlock later during the week of Jan 17 per the S-1.

Jan 21 covered calls (aka lending your stock out for $) might be a nice option.

Please correct me if any of my info explained incorrectly/ not right.



These premiums should be higher at todays open. Basically if you sell to open a covered call at the Jan 21 $60 strike, you collect $2.12 per share ( or $212 per 1 contract).

If the stock hit that for Jan 21 & prints, great for the everyone. You get that sold price plus the $212 premium per contract.
If the stock doesn't hit $60 at the expiration, you keep your shares and the premium

[Working4better]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Anyone else tempted to write covered calls against their Lcid shares? Note: their 6 month shares unlock later during the week of Jan 17 per the S-1.

Jan 21 covered calls (aka lending your stock out for $) might be a nice option.

Please correct me if any of my info explained incorrectly/ not right.



These premiums should be higher at todays open. Basically if you sell to open a covered call at the Jan 21 $60 strike, you collect $2.12 per share ( or $212 per 1 contract).

If the stock hit that for Jan 21 & prints, great for the everyone. You get that sold price plus the $212 premium per contract.
If the stock doesn't hit $60 at the expiration, you keep your shares and the premium

Hmm that's interesting

[logo]

Baffled by VIAC lol. Would normally average down, but not sure given the price action the past several months.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Baffled by VIAC lol. Would normally average down, but not sure given the price action the past several months.

yup, ive not been averaging down for over a month now because there's no reason to fight manipulation. bbig too, 4.5 now and approaching the value it was at before it acquired lomotif. just makes no sense

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by kwr

alright i'll bite....why do you like ATEC so much?

I'll try to keep it to the cliff notes:

Company underwent massive leadership and overall organizational changes in 2018. Complete revamp of the sales force and ever evolving product portfolio. Going on 11 quarters in a row of double digit growth in total market that averages ~5% growth annually - and most of this was done during the turbulent surgical scheduling times of COVID.

Leadership has the pedigree of building the beast that is / was NUVA. Came over to ATEC with the plan of doing it all over again after becoming disenfranchised with the continued lack of innovation down the street.

Company is well capitalized after several recent moves and while currently spending lots of cash on R&D also has a gross margin that swings in the 66-68% range leaving a lot of meat on the bone to pursue profitability.

All of this rampant growth has been fueled domestically - few years prior to the 2018 reboot the international division was sold off and they just reached the end of their 5 year non-compete.

Investments in differentiated technology including the acquisition of EOS opens the door to all sorts of possibilities down the line including patient specific implants, data driven outcomes etc.

Long story short I'm bullish as hell. The spine market is not an unfamiliar space for me and they're doing the damn thing. Full disclosure I do have a core long holding in the sub $3.50 range, still buying with both hands. See you on the other side of $25 boys

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by logo

Baffled by VIAC lol. Would normally average down, but not sure given the price action the past several months.

Originally Posted by huncho

yup, ive not been averaging down for over a month now because there's no reason to fight manipulation. bbig too, 4.5 now and approaching the value it was at before it acquired lomotif. just makes no sense

Holding a sizable position here as well. 7 million subs added last qtr and $1B FCF is mind boggling for a $23.5B MC company if you think about it.

They did say at the end of the conference call that ad sales are softening so guess that is the reason for the sell off. Hands are itching to buy more but the sensible side of me says I have enough already...

[jaisonline]

Didn’t buy 11/5 PENN puts to hedge my long (ugh) but did pickup 11/5 DKNG $44 Ps for $0.61. Another one of my long positions. Thank goodness they are trading at $1.44 currently.

PENN’s getting hit for not just the quarter but also recent Dave Portnoy allegations.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

are you still in any 2022s? my biggest position in coty is in jan 23 12c so if we get closer to 10 i might trim those and buy back later into something less otm. current delta on these is pretty bad so i wouldn't miss out on much gains with the way this stock has been acting. stocks that only start going up a few weeks before earnings then fall/stay flat for months after are so confusing to long lol

Blew out of all Jan 2022's when we hit 9.50, missed a bit of the top though. Added back substantially to 2023 7c and 10c when we dropped below $8, BE on the 2023 10c is almost $12.50 which I am becoming less comfortable with. So moving everything more ITM, most to 7C to reduce risk. I will continue to play the swing trades between $7-10, those have been very profitable and historical IV hasn't moved much. Waiting for spreads to narrow and OI to increase in the 2024 chain and will purchase there on future pullbacks.

Originally Posted by Working4better

Heck yeah any good straight to the point info is welcomed!

See these two posts
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...postcount=6217

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...e#post11228683

[Working4better]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Blew out of all Jan 2022's when we hit 9.50, missed a bit of the top though. Added back substantially to 2023 7c and 10c when we dropped below $8, BE on the 2023 10c is almost $12.50 which I am becoming less comfortable with. So moving everything more ITM, most to 7C to reduce risk. I will continue to play the swing trades between $7-10, those have been very profitable and historical IV hasn't moved much. Waiting for spreads to narrow and OI to increase in the 2024 chain and will purchase there on future pullbacks.



See these two posts
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...postcount=6217

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...e#post11228683

Got it thanks @7sins, gotta put this brain to work and learn again lol

[7sins]

@huncho check this Nov 19th COTY volume, this is BIG volume here, this is two weeks BE at $10+ on 9.50 strike. Someone or an institution making a big bet on a big upcoming ER. Very interesting, now making me rethink trimming into ER haha.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

@huncho check this Nov 19th COTY volume, this is BIG volume here, this is two weeks BE at $10+ on 9.50 strike. Someone or an institution making a big bet on a big upcoming ER. Very interesting, now making me rethink trimming into ER haha.

Interesting balance between moving calls ITM vs letting it ride. Mine are OTM at 12c with a Jan 2023 break even of like $13.30. Slightly unsettling, but at the same time I think this thing is due to rip which would yield high returns. Going to give it till investor day then if we have made no progress I’ll roll into a lower strike. But I’m thinking more and more I’ll just let most of this ride through earnings, or at most sell 10% pre-earnings if we get closer to $9.50.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

@huncho check this Nov 19th COTY volume, this is BIG volume here, this is two weeks BE at $10+ on 9.50 strike. Someone or an institution making a big bet on a big upcoming ER. Very interesting, now making me rethink trimming into ER haha.

yeah that's huge volume and at least the price has calmed down a bit so i'm less nervous lol, would be anxious if it approached 10 by ER. will see how next week plays out but this also makes me feel better. also we've all been waiting so long for it to finally break 10, i can just imagine trimming before ER just to have it finally break through

side note, NET earnings today, stock is trading at 112 P/S. anyone trying to play this?

[Texote69]

Originally Posted by logo

Baffled by VIAC lol. Would normally average down, but not sure given the price action the past several months.

Me too. Not sure what to do here? It’s getting hammered

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah that's huge volume and at least the price has calmed down a bit so i'm less nervous lol, would be anxious if it approached 10 by ER. will see how next week plays out but this also makes me feel better

side note, NET earnings today, stock is trading at 112 P/S. anyone trying to play this?

It’s my biggest position by far, initially in at $28, doubled position to give an average of $50. Not selling a single share. I honestly believe this is going to be the biggest company most people have never heard of. Very simply, use the “does it matter test.” If this company disappeared tomorrow, literally the world would shut down - the internet depends on them this much and no one knows about it. Their valuation looks like a stretch today, but it’ll grow into it - also pretty much everyone knows their numbers so it shouldn’t be some crazy surprise when earnings come out that their valuation is high. Now in terms of whether there’s profit taking after ER, possibly not sure.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

It’s my biggest position by far, initially in at $28, doubled position to give an average of $50. Not selling a single share. I honestly believe this is going to be the biggest company most people have never heard of. Very simply, use the “does it matter test.” If this company disappeared tomorrow, literally the world would shut down - the internet depends on them this much and no one knows about it. Their valuation looks like a stretch today, but it’ll grow into it - also pretty much everyone knows their numbers so it shouldn’t be some crazy surprise when earnings come out that their valuation is high. Now in terms of whether there’s profit taking after ER, possibly not sure.

yeah i agree it's definitely got a lot of potential in the long run and you're sitting really comfy at this point with that average. it's exactly how i feel about sofi where i don't wanna bother risking having a smaller position by playing earnings and all that

i bought some puts to try this though, iv is high so ill probably just get iv crushed unless it actually tanks but let's see what happens lol. this is where the gambling side of me comes out and makes me lose money

[chsu74]

@7sins Someone decided to step off TSM’s neck. Still underperformed SMH today.. smh

[huncho]

well it looks like nothing can stop NET

[sokoloka]

ATEC earnings season ...

"The Company now expects total revenue for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021, to approximate $235 million, reflecting growth of approximately 62% compared to the prior full year."

https://investors.alphatecspine.com/...s/default.aspx

[scarlet knight]

Things I learned from the stock marker:
1. Don’t buy Chinese stocks. Their government interferes.
2. Don’t buy meme stocks. Up 90% and down 90% is not my thing.
3. If I lose 5% in a new position, look for the exit. If it loses 10%, get out. Avoids catastrophic losses.
4. Don’t buy recent IPOs. See rule 2.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Things I learned from the stock marker:
1. Don’t buy Chinese stocks. Their government interferes.
2. Don’t buy meme stocks. Up 90% and down 90% is not my thing.
3. If I lose 5% in a new position, look for the exit. If it loses 10%, get out. Avoids catastrophic losses.
4. Don’t buy recent IPOs. See rule 2.

#3 can work both ways. you could also miss out on great gains if you get out at a 5-10% loss every time. i guess it depends on your risk tolerance and how much you believe in your play

[Working4better]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Things I learned from the stock marker:
1. Don’t buy Chinese stocks. Their government interferes.
2. Don’t buy meme stocks. Up 90% and down 90% is not my thing.
3. If I lose 5% in a new position, look for the exit. If it loses 10%, get out. Avoids catastrophic losses.
4. Don’t buy recent IPOs. See rule 2.

Good tips!

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

@huncho check this Nov 19th COTY volume, this is BIG volume here, this is two weeks BE at $10+ on 9.50 strike. Someone or an institution making a big bet on a big upcoming ER. Very interesting, now making me rethink trimming into ER haha.

EL reported a very good qtr that surprised