Talking Stocks 2.0

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 330ci

Been my strategy. Some are down upwards of 70% from my buy in price still, and some are up 100%. My portfolio is +4% overall in the past 3 months and -17% overall the past month. DCA to the bottom, and slightly up the rebound, although my profit outlook is more 5-10years at this point. I think a 2024 rebound would be a miracle with the current global climate. But I've been wrong plenty before. I'm certainly not buying large blocks of anything, slowly but surely I've been adding to 30 positions to mitigate risk and it seems to be working out despite the heavy swings.

what stocks you been buying/eyeing?

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Not a market timer but have been keeping powder dry since Jan with no new investments in the market but ready for deployment. Things that I've been targeting have kept going down then back up in July and now back below where I thought an entry point was.

Personally don't see any upside and probably won't for 2 more months until the midterms are completed. Not a political statement but historically, if there's gridlock in Congress, the market likes that. If Dems keep control, I can see further lows post Nov. followed by deep economic recession in 2023.

i guess i'm a bit more optimistic than you and think the situation here in the US isn't as bad as the doomers are making it out to be, assuming inflation stops coming in hotter. the economy doesn't really seem too bad, at least for now, and i think we have a long way to go until it starts to resemble a 2008 type of apocalypse. regardless it sounds like you were referring to large cap stocks if they're making lower lows. most of the stocks i'm looking at have yet to even come close to the same lows in june so we'll see

Originally Posted by 904VT

I've been thinking the same for my personal portfolio. I think Ada Lovelace will be very impressive when announced later this month. I'll probably be picking up a 4090 myself for both work and pleasure. It seems like they will supply a large number of AD104 12 GB 4080s to the market if rumors are correct as well as their supposed request to TSMC to reduce their purchased 5nm production lot. From what I've read TSMC said no and NVIDIA was given the option to delay some production rather than cancel. They also need to help TSMC find a customer to take over production during that delay. From what I can tell:

AD102 4090 24 GB comes this Fall
AD103 4080 16 GB comes this Fall, but after 4090
AD104 4080 12 GB comes in 2023 and is the gamers card

Shorter-term if what it think happens does happen, NVIDIA will miss out on miners this round with the 4090 and delay the mass gamers card the 4080 12 GB until 2023, thus selling 3000 series remaining stock. This 4090 and 4080 16 GB early release model will piss off gamers and NVIDIA will loose goodwill until Q1 2023, at which point they will really ramp up production on the 4080 12 GBs at a reasonable price giving gamers all the cards they want. So shorter-term buying opportunities, followed by price growth is what I'm looking at. Not advice of course, just what I'm looking at for myself.

with ethereum merging this month and going away from mining it will be interesting to see what happens with the graphics card market. i believe btc's price right now is right around (or slightly under?) break even for a lot of miners as well. i also think nvidia was in its own tier of bubbles during this covid run so i feel like it can easily do another -50% lol

[330ci]

Originally Posted by huncho

what stocks you been buying/eyeing?

A handful of them. I bought the list of 10 biotechs that was listed a few pages back by the guy with the most expensive watch collection I've ever seen to be honest and have rolled with it, adding in a few picks of my own and playing a bit in the crypto space and with some futures that have just gotten annihilated. Today was a good day, but ill have to go through and weed out some of the super depressed ones tomorrow and post back, I really haven't paid too close attention. Just buy when I get alerts that stuff is down. I basically won't buy anything over 25% of its 52week high. Just bargain shopping and hoping for the best. I'm not advocating this as a smart method of investing, its a small step above degenerate gambling as far as I'm concerned. But I'd rather go for broke than watch the government deflate what little I have to begin with.

Was about to dip back into rivian but soros selling off his position didn't leave me feeling too confident so I dropped money on lucid instead.

[SDGT3]

I don't see a 2008 type of deep recession in 2023 and agree with you that things are relatively ok here as compared to Europe. Hopeful inflation can go down but that might have to include a recession - double edged sword. Price of energy is a real concern worldwide and we will be shifting some supply to EU/UK once more LNG terminals are online there which will impact domestic prices.

Yes, on the large cap. Strong dollar impacting many of those biz.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 330ci

A handful of them. I bought the list of 10 biotechs that was listed a few pages back by the guy with the most expensive watch collection I've ever seen to be honest and have rolled with it, adding in a few picks of my own and playing a bit in the crypto space and with some futures that have just gotten annihilated. Today was a good day, but ill have to go through and weed out some of the super depressed ones tomorrow and post back, I really haven't paid too close attention. Just buy when I get alerts that stuff is down. I basically won't buy anything over 25% of its 52week high. Just bargain shopping and hoping for the best. I'm not advocating this as a smart method of investing, its a small step above degenerate gambling as far as I'm concerned. But I'd rather go for broke than watch the government deflate what little I have to begin with.

Was about to dip back into rivian but soros selling off his position didn't leave me feeling too confident so I dropped money on lucid instead.

i need to look into some biotech, definitely some good opportunities there but just not something i'm familiar with

it's crazy that some of these companies are down 80-90% and still trading at what some would consider overvalued ratios. but anyway, i feel like it's definitely worth the risk. ones that i'm currently buying or looking to buy :

HOOD
SQ
SHOP
Z - trading at .8 sales. kinda ridiculous but at the same time they got themselves into some deep sh*t with the AI house flipping
RNG - don't think their product is good but it's down 92% and they're still growing a bit in terms of revenue and guidance reassured growth should be sustained
CHPT
VLTA
GBTC - in addition to slowly buying more btc but this is trading at a ~40% discount. hypothetically if it gets approved to become an etf it will almost instantly cover that gap. controversial since i know most hate btc but an easy way to invest in it if you don't wanna go through all that buying spot involves
COIN - valuation on this was borderline criminal at ~40s, sadly i missed out then and i'm waiting to get in. they recently partnered with blackrock to onboard their (blackrock's) clients into crypto, company isn't gonna die anytime soon and is obviously just impacted by the crypto winter. these guys made $3b net income on $8b revenue in 2021 which is ridiculous
SOFI - safe to say my 2024 leaps are probably toast but might start picking up shares soon

not the safest strategy but i also don't see the point in buying the apples/microsofts/teslas/etc yet. doesn't seem like its worth putting capital into stuff with that limited of a return long term (for now) with a large amount of the market having a complete meltdown. but then again, i'm also a degen and don't like safe plays, which is also why i'm down bad this year lol. not going all in and just looking to dca slowly

would love to hear if anyone is also buying beat up tech names and which ones/why

[INC]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Energy prices are a major concern worldwide and we will shift some supply to the EU/UK once more LNG terminals come online there, which will impact domestic prices.

It sounds like a vision, but in reality it's a disaster. The main problem with LNG is not belonging to the terminals, but the upstream capacity, the pipelines leading to the coast and above all: the available LNG space on cargo ships. Installing an LNG terminal is a piece of cake, but building a huge fleet to transport LNG is not. This alone can take years.

And here's the Catch-22:

Which shipping company will invest in all this if they know for sure that the sanctions against Russia will be lifted soon, but within a year or two at the latest, and while the EU declared their stupid dark green dicatotrship that they will NOT buying more natural gas in just a few years?

It's nothing more than a usual socialistic fugazzi for the impoverished and idiocratized citizens of Europe which let to make a huge profit for the US based energy companies and according to this to improve the US economy's figures. This is exactly why there is no recession in the US yet. Fugazzi.

[superdog]

I’d be a buyer today except for one thing.

Russia. Without getting political, I simply don’t trust Putins ego. He won’t let this go, and I fear he does something drastic to try and save his legacy.

That’ll be a monster drop, and I don’t see this ending any other way.

That’s my only fear right now.

[m j b]

So USA inflation was 8.5 projected to fall to 8% and instead split the difference at 8.3 and the market tanks 3% in one day? That's a bit of an over-reaction, don't you think?

I'm not sure that I agree with Seth, probably mostly out of hope rather than any good reason that Putin won't do something drastic. He could, theoretically, stick with whatever area he currently controls and say "yeah, that's what I meant to do" and then reach an accord with Ukraine. We could hope, anyway.

The amount of damage done to that country I fear, is not fully known. Natch all we know is what the media tells us, and they show us pictures of bombed-out buildings because untouched buildings have no visual interest. But I think it's safe to say that Ukraine has been severely hurt. And I doubt that they'll get any reparations from Russia.

However, back to what Seth was writing... I'm ready to start buying again, but it won't be today. Not quite yet. Maybe tomorrow.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’d be a buyer today except for one thing.

Russia. Without getting political, I simply don’t trust Putins ego. He won’t let this go, and I fear he does something drastic to try and save his legacy.

That’ll be a monster drop, and I don’t see this ending any other way.

That’s my only fear right now.

I agree, he may go nuts here. I wouldn't be shorting either because I do believe there is also the increased chance he gets the boot soon. His overthrow won't be pretty but it may be very fast. Either way, it does appear to me that we are on the verge of a significant change in Ukraine that will have an impact in some way on the markets.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by m j b

So USA inflation was 8.5 projected to fall to 8% and instead split the difference at 8.3 and the market tanks 3% in one day? That's a bit of an over-reaction, don't you think?

I'm not sure that I agree with Seth, probably mostly out of hope rather than any good reason that Putin won't do something drastic. He could, theoretically, stick with whatever area he currently controls and say "yeah, that's what I meant to do" and then reach an accord with Ukraine. We could hope, anyway.

The amount of damage done to that country I fear, is not fully known. Natch all we know is what the media tells us, and they show us pictures of bombed-out buildings because untouched buildings have no visual interest. But I think it's safe to say that Ukraine has been severely hurt. And I doubt that they'll get any reparations from Russia.

However, back to what Seth was writing... I'm ready to start buying again, but it won't be today. Not quite yet. Maybe tomorrow.

Brother, I soooooooo hope you are correct. I hope I am wrong.

But the human psyche is weak. And the ego rules all. If he can find a way out and maintain his ego, I think we can squeak by. I really am hoping.

I dont know what diplomatic efforts are taking place. But I hope they are making progress. I hope cooler heads prevail.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

I agree, he may go nuts here. I wouldn't be shorting either because I do believe there is also the increased chance he gets the boot soon. His overthrow won't be pretty but it may be very fast. Either way, it does appear to me that we are on the verge of a significant change in Ukraine that will have an impact in some way on the markets.

agreed. I too would not be shorting. too many things can happen.

really hopeful he does not go nuts.

all these new estimates coming out with all the big banks predicting 20% drops.

seems to me, when everyone else is afraid, it is a good time to buy. but I too am afraid and think too many factors in play.

if I thought it might go down another 5-10%, I would be okay with starting to slowly buy. but I too am fearful of 20%. So I too will hold for the time being.

[SDGT3]

Downside risk is significant at this point. Today's CPI is just 1 data point that inflation is not close to being tamed. Core CPI was up .6% - not good at all. Financial media put a rainbow and unicorns spin on the current conditions because gas prices went down $1 a gallon ignoring that they had gone up $3 a gallon in the past year.

Jerome Powell and the other Fed gov. have not waivered from their positions - rates will continue to go up - there is no pivot in sight. Listen to what the Fed is telling you. Also know that liquidity is drying up at $95B per month and $1.2T per year from the Fed balance sheet.

Goldman Sachs and others have announced major layoffs but employment remains well under 4%.

Understand the major headwinds heading our way. Energy prices can only go up from here. Continental Europe has stockpiled appx. ~ 90% of this winter's gas supply but they did this at the time when Nordstream 1 was open. They don't have that option for the following winter so they will have to figure out how they resupply themselves. The UK doesn't have sufficient means of stockpiling so their winter maybe more bleak than the continent.

Couple this with China being in lockdown and not using near the amount of energy they typically do with the US drawing down their Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try and keep gas prices down, it's easy to see how energy prices will skyrocket once China is no longer in zero Covid conditions and the SPR needs to be restocked.

[logo]

I’m not buying. Market drop today was not an over reaction, the over reaction was the 17% rally since June.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by m j b

So USA inflation was 8.5 projected to fall to 8% and instead split the difference at 8.3 and the market tanks 3% in one day? That's a bit of an over-reaction, don't you think?

I'm not sure that I agree with Seth, probably mostly out of hope rather than any good reason that Putin won't do something drastic. He could, theoretically, stick with whatever area he currently controls and say "yeah, that's what I meant to do" and then reach an accord with Ukraine. We could hope, anyway.

The amount of damage done to that country I fear, is not fully known. Natch all we know is what the media tells us, and they show us pictures of bombed-out buildings because untouched buildings have no visual interest. But I think it's safe to say that Ukraine has been severely hurt. And I doubt that they'll get any reparations from Russia.

However, back to what Seth was writing... I'm ready to start buying again, but it won't be today. Not quite yet. Maybe tomorrow.

it wouldn't surprise me if the market bounces back by the end of the week or next. i think it's a bit of an overreaction with inflation still coming down overall. i also don't see the fed raising rates by 100 bps which is what i guess the market is starting to price in. let's see though, hopefully that is the case

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Downside risk is significant at this point. Today's CPI is just 1 data point that inflation is not close to being tamed. Core CPI was up .6% - not good at all. Financial media put a rainbow and unicorns spin on the current conditions because gas prices went down $1 a gallon ignoring that they had gone up $3 a gallon in the past year.

Jerome Powell and the other Fed gov. have not waivered from their positions - rates will continue to go up - there is no pivot in sight. Listen to what the Fed is telling you. Also know that liquidity is drying up at $95B per month and $1.2T per year from the Fed balance sheet.

Goldman Sachs and others have announced major layoffs but employment remains well under 4%.

Understand the major headwinds heading our way. Energy prices can only go up from here. Continental Europe has stockpiled appx. ~ 90% of this winter's gas supply but they did this at the time when Nordstream 1 was open. They don't have that option for the following winter so they will have to figure out how they resupply themselves. The UK doesn't have sufficient means of stockpiling so their winter maybe more bleak than the continent.

Couple this with China being in lockdown and not using near the amount of energy they typically do with the US drawing down their Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try and keep gas prices down, it's easy to see how energy prices will skyrocket once China is no longer in zero Covid conditions and the SPR needs to be restocked.

at what point does the fed realize raising rates won't fix energy prices though? like i understand the idea of destroying demand to tame inflation but i don't think continuing to destroy markets will fix energy prices, will it?

[SDGT3]

We are no where near neutral on rates with the Fed behind the curve but rates are what people focus on. The real hammer is liquidity as I touched upon. The Fed mandate is to keep full employment and stabile prices. The fact they haven't raised rates more significantly tells you they are worried about damaging the markets.

Other headwinds I didn't touch upon but are significant is the pending railroad strike set to start as soon as Friday. If that happens, think about the supply chain issues and "food to market" issues with farmers just starting to get into the harvest season.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

We are no where near neutral on rates with the Fed behind the curve but rates are what people focus on. The real hammer is liquidity as I touched upon. The Fed mandate is to keep full employment and stabile prices. The fact they haven't raised rates more significantly tells you they are worried about damaging the markets.

Other headwinds I didn't touch upon but are significant is the pending railroad strike set to start as soon as Friday. If that happens, think about the supply chain issues and "food to market" issues with farmers just starting to get into the harvest season.

to be honest i don't know how they get themselves out of this without the war ending (not to get political). doesn't rent play a big part in the core cpi also? besides high unemployment and a major recession, what would cause rent to go down

[SDGT3]

I don't want to get into the RUS/UKR war because it's more complicated than we could ever know.

Regarding housing, major markets are starting to see higher inventory numbers (Phoenix up 300% as an example), prices down but a lot of renters who wanted to buy cannot afford the mortgage payments now as the cost to service the mortgage is 60% higher than it was a year ago with the higher rates so they are forced to rent. It's a catch 22 situation. Housing prices have a ways to come down from their lofty highs as well.

The two lynch pins in all this is lower energy prices and higher unemployment. If both occur, we will start to see easing of inflation. Unfortunately the mantra of "Soft Landing" is not realistic.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I don't want to get into the RUS/UKR war because it's more complicated than we could ever know.

Regarding housing, major markets are starting to see higher inventory numbers (Phoenix up 300% as an example), prices down but a lot of renters who wanted to buy cannot afford the mortgage payments now as the cost to service the mortgage is 60% higher than it was a year ago with the higher rates so they are forced to rent. It's a catch 22 situation. Housing prices have a ways to come down from their lofty highs as well.

The two lynch pins in all this is lower energy prices and higher unemployment. If both occur, we will start to see easing of inflation. Unfortunately the mantra of "Soft Landing" is not realistic.

agreed, soft landing was written off back in march when stocks were already seeing 70-80% draw downs lol. we're all just passengers at this point

[superdog]

Just checked todays numbers.

Yikes.

But good. Let’s just get on with it.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’d be a buyer today except for one thing.

Russia. Without getting political, I simply don’t trust Putins ego. He won’t let this go, and I fear he does something drastic to try and save his legacy.

That’ll be a monster drop, and I don’t see this ending any other way.

That’s my only fear right now.

Originally Posted by m j b

So USA inflation was 8.5 projected to fall to 8% and instead split the difference at 8.3 and the market tanks 3% in one day? That's a bit of an over-reaction, don't you think?

I'm not sure that I agree with Seth, probably mostly out of hope rather than any good reason that Putin won't do something drastic. He could, theoretically, stick with whatever area he currently controls and say "yeah, that's what I meant to do" and then reach an accord with Ukraine. We could hope, anyway.

The amount of damage done to that country I fear, is not fully known. Natch all we know is what the media tells us, and they show us pictures of bombed-out buildings because untouched buildings have no visual interest. But I think it's safe to say that Ukraine has been severely hurt. And I doubt that they'll get any reparations from Russia.

However, back to what Seth was writing... I'm ready to start buying again, but it won't be today. Not quite yet. Maybe tomorrow.

I think they will eventually reach an agreement to separate into Eastern and Western Ukraine. How they get there and if escalations come in the process is tough to predict. But ultimately, it seems like there is no way out of ending up with a new but different Iron Curtain. What may be more worrisome imo is what others do at a time that they think is a distraction while this is going on. There seems to be a lot of geopolitical risk in Western Europe and Asia right now. I'm light on beta myself (though not advice).

[Kowaco]

I’m generally wrong about everything, but I don’t think things are getting better in Europe. I don’t think inflation goes away overnight and if it did I’d be more worried knowing the numbers were being manipulated.

I think the stock market is disconnected from reality, so I’m actually glad to see this drop, but it’s really been dropping all along which tells me people are selling into rallies. I think we’re going to see a slow bleed for awhile with the trend being down. I’ve been making money in options based on my believe that there will be ups and downs on the way to the bottom. I’ve been looking for the DOW to go below 30k and then everyone won’t be so confident and the drops will become more drastic. I haven’t considered the Black Swan events nuclear war or simply confrontations with Russia China, Iran,North Korea.
That’s my forecast and I’m going to to continue collecting crumbs with options.
Take all that with a grain of salt, because I haven’t been correct about anything.


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[904VT]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

I’m generally wrong about everything, but I don’t think things are getting better in Europe. I don’t think inflation goes away overnight and if it did I’d be more worried knowing the numbers were being manipulated.

I think the stock market is disconnected from reality, so I’m actually glad to see this drop, but it’s really been dropping all along which tells me people are selling into rallies. I think we’re going to see a slow bleed for awhile with the trend being down. I’ve been making money in options based on my believe that there will be ups and downs on the way to the bottom. I’ve been looking for the DOW to go below 30k and then everyone won’t be so confident and the drops will become more drastic. I haven’t considered the Black Swan events nuclear war or simply confrontations with Russia China, Iran,North Korea.
That’s my forecast and I’m going to to continue collecting crumbs with options.
Take all that with a grain of salt, because I haven’t been correct about anything.


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I often wonder if equity markets are now permanently disconnected from reality and due to the overuse of index based products. So many passive products and ETFs in use nowadays that seemingly individual stocks have become the equivalent of widgets without any idiosyncratic features. They have become simply pieces of supply and demand rather than based on fundamentals. I’m still a little confused why we got rid of exemptive relief requirements for ETFs which ultimately allowed everyone to get in on the products. Maybe there was pressure to offer what was the equivalent to free capital to companies post Great Recession as they saw capital flows based on index weightings rather than justified fundamentals.

[austinp]

I did a little buying this afternoon. Love buying on big down days.


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[V25V]

Im still sitting on cash, this is only going to get worse in the coming months.

[RBradleigh]

How does an M&A work? I own a decent amount of STOR and today it was announced an M&A where shareholders will be paid $32.25/share.

Does this happen automatically? I use Ally as a brokerage and am curious if there’s anything necessary to do on my part. Share price “dropped” to $32 in Closing hours, does this mean still tradeable? To what date?

I know dividend paying stocks have an “ex-div” date which dictates a point time ownership must be by in order to receive next shareholder payout.

Thanks all,


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[Laszlo]

When Amazon suddenly shuts down dozens of distribution centers and cancels another few dozen future DC contracts, it kind of says it all. Buffet gauges men’s underwear sales, others gauge Amazon’s core business. I’d lay low for a while.

“Amazon has closed or canceled 44 facilities in the United States this year while putting on hold or delaying the opening of 27 others, CNBC reported.” (Reported 10-hours ago.)

Note their locations!!

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

How does an M&A work? I own a decent amount of STOR and today it was announced an M&A where shareholders will be paid $32.25/share.

Does this happen automatically? I use Ally as a brokerage and am curious if there’s anything necessary to do on my part. Share price “dropped” to $32 in Closing hours, does this mean still tradeable? To what date?

I know dividend paying stocks have an “ex-div” date which dictates a point time ownership must be by in order to receive next shareholder payout.

Thanks all,


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The deal closes next year, you will be able to trade the stock until the deal is closed. It will trade less than the deal price because there is always chance it doesn’t go through and also the time value of money. They are shopping for competing bids so there is chance it could go higher. On day the deal closes, the stock will be delisted and you will have the cash shortly thereafter.

If it was me, I’d sell it today and reinvest elsewhere. Bird in hand.

Congrats!

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by V25V

Im still sitting on cash, this is only going to get worse in the coming months.

90 day and 6 month US Treasuries. Boring, but yields keep ticking up.

I’m not selling any stocks, but not buying more until I can see some clarity in good names that pay dividends.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

We are no where near neutral on rates with the Fed behind the curve but rates are what people focus on.

It is important to distinguish the difference between the FED funds rate vs the treasury yield curve. Remember the 2yr treasury often foreshadows the FED funds rate. The FED funds rate is at 2.25-2.50% and the 2yr treasury is 3.9%, thus the market and yield curve has appropriately priced in an additional 150bp of FED rate hikes which is a fair assumption IMO. All while the 30/2YR inverts for the first time since 2000.

Where it gets interesting is looking to the futures market. The chart below shows where the market anticipates yields to be one year from now, notice the expectations are yields to be the same a year from now to where they are now, which is often why I recommend clients buy a 1yr tbill at 4% opposed to sitting in cash/CDs. Ultimately the FED will continue to raise, the cost to borrow capital and good/services will rise to the point of the economy stalling (already seeing this) due to our economy being predomintantly a service based economy (~74%). This will result in a flight to safety where investors buy safe haven assets (IE treasuries and munis) pushing the intermediate to long part of the curve down.

This is the worst bond market since 1787 and the worst muni market ever in history (the second was 5% better than today) yet municipalities are the healthiest they have ever been. Book muni yields started the year SUB 1% and now we are pushing 4% tax free YTW, that is ABSURD fueled by irrational retail investors blindly selling munis to the tune of $80B in outflows, the most ever in history. The ONLY thing that truly matters in FI is insolvency and we are nowhere near rising default risk especially in tax free municipals flush in cash. This should scream opportunity to you as bonds have a finish line and mature at par. I always tell clients long term wealth is created by buying healthy asset classes dislocated and on sale, there are many opportunities in the fixed income space especially looking to Closed End Funds to take advantage of the dislocation between NAV and price with tax equiv yields close to 9-10%. Yields and spreads WILL revert back to the means, especially now *most* bonds trade at a discount to par.

Personally, with my own account, I am looking to phase in LEAP puts on TBT (not quite yet as I do think we will see yields further rise in the short term for other various reasons, esp munis given the next month's supply calendar) as aforementioned I suspect yields to fall in the next 2 years. This is IMO a layup, just like earlier this year when I was telling everyone to buy calls on TBT as rates will rise, the opposite is the case here AND buying puts on TBT adds a recession hedge to your portfolio (and or write calls or covered calls for free income), especially as premiums are very low now as no one is talking about this, investors often are short minded and too myopic to not see the forest through the trees.

Just my .02 as a FI trader, rant and rambling over.

[Kowaco]

For the past few years, “Buy the dip” has gained popularity and while I believe the markets will come back I do think there will be a lack of stomach for the market drop. Jack Bogle said the very best return was in equities if you have the stomach it. The best scenario would have been to let the market recover on its own in 2020, but I think the trillions of dollars thrown into the economy gave it an artificial boost and now it’s sliding back to where it should have been.

I do realize I have been wrong about every prediction I’ve ever made so maybe there is a bright future ahead


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