Talking Stocks 2.0

[huncho]

2022 summed up

[7sins]

Originally Posted by m j b

Even better, because then I can ladder the expirations.

Bingo my friend, that is EXACTLY how you want to think about bonds - just be cognizant of transaction fees, there should be no spread on treasuries (albeit not familiar with E*Trade, just look for hidden costs).

[904VT]

This thread has really died down since the market became difficult to trade.

On a different note in today’s Jim Cramer makes a fool of himself News Jim is waiting for a Crypto crash that already happened and he must’ve missed to bring down inflation and thinks wages need to come down to bring down inflation after decades of stagnant real wage growth. How does this guy have a television show.

[enjoythemusic]

Ugh, Jim Cramer belongs in jail for market manipulation...

...but the SEC with all the evidence it needs to prosecute doesn't care.

Business as usual for CNBCBS.

[330ci]

Originally Posted by huncho

2022 summed up

Coming through with the Gold yet again lol

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 904VT

This thread has really died down since the market became difficult to trade.

On a different note in today’s Jim Cramer makes a fool of himself News Jim is waiting for a Crypto crash that already happened and he must’ve missed to bring down inflation and thinks wages need to come down to bring down inflation after decades of stagnant real wage growth. How does this guy have a television show.

nvidia is up like 40% since he said it's a loser and he's short lol

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

nvidia is up like 40% since he said it's a loser and he's short lol

Yup. I would have been aggressive with mentioning here the buying opportunity a few months back and valuation models but I cannot not due to my profession. AMD just laid an egg with RDNA3. NVIDIA will make massive profits off of the AD102 in the 4090 prosumer/gaming and RTX 6000 Ada enterprise. Hopper H100 is where the real profit is and I expect NVIDIA to allocate a lot of TSMC node capacity to H100s which go for $40k+

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by 904VT

This thread has really died down since the market became difficult to trade.

On a different note in today’s Jim Cramer makes a fool of himself News Jim is waiting for a Crypto crash that already happened and he must’ve missed to bring down inflation and thinks wages need to come down to bring down inflation after decades of stagnant real wage growth. How does this guy have a television show.

What he says is always off the mark. A family member noted he must get free Spam for all his mentions of Hormel.

[KokPingBalzac]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Bingo my friend, that is EXACTLY how you want to think about bonds - just be cognizant of transaction fees, there should be no spread on treasuries (albeit not familiar with E*Trade, just look for hidden costs).

How are you positioning your portfolio to take advantage of the infrastructure bill and also new developments across many renewables developments. Green hydrogen, "circular" economy investments, decarbonization, natural gas production from landfills, EV battery manufacturing and recycling, solar/wind manufacturing and operations, nuclear energy (large and small scale), etc. Lots of capital is pouring into this space from governments and venture investors and I expect that trend to continue heavily in this decade.

Currently I have exposures to BEPC (C-Corp version of BEP LP), NEP, DOW, WM (installing natural gas extraction tech into their landfills), APD (getting involved with hydrogen projects), OXY (leader in oil extraction decarb), CQP (basically an LNG arbitrage exporter play), URI (heavy equipment rentals which is kind of a sideways play on this infrastructure bill) and I've owned RS for a while- has been a massive winner for me the past few years and is the largest metals services company in the US.

I've traded the solar panel manufacturer CSIQ in the past but I'm not as big a fan of the hardware business as I am just owning the renewable assets out right which have more predictable cash flows and long term inflation linked contracts in vehicles like BEP and NEP. The US based solar manufacturers are incredibly overvalued based on my FCFE models.

Valuations of WM and APD are quite stretched so I'm selling calls on them but am young and comfortable holding for the long term.

Also waiting to buy a position into some of the critical metals companies- I'd like to see more cyclical pullback in some of these names though: FCX, ALB, MP materials, maybe something like an alcoa, US steel, or Cleveland Cliffs... CLF is really interesting right now- this stock looks insanely cheap but it's hard to say if they will sink down to negative earnings in this macro slide.

Steel, copper, nickel, aluminium, lithium, rare earth minerals likely to benefit from a longer term renewables cycle. Problem with these is picking the right entry point and knowing when things are overheated and it's time to get out.

[superdog]

I wonder how much of this will play out in the months to come...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/were-f-ro...201000880.html

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by superdog

I wonder how much of this will play out in the months to come...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/were-f-ro...201000880.html

I hope we see a lot of it. Financial crimes seem to be the least prosecuted in the US. Fraud is rampant because people see little risk in it.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

I hope we see a lot of it. Financial crimes seem to be the least prosecuted in the US. Fraud is rampant because people see little risk in it.

Agreed.

[huncho]

[904VT]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

What he says is always off the mark. A family member noted he must get free Spam for all his mentions of Hormel.

[enjoythemusic]

Who went to jail from the 2008 fraud? Huge loss if homes, jobs... even needed a bailout. Which TBTF banks were broken up?

We know HFT and selling flow fraud is rewarded in the USA, and actual fraud (if doubtfully caught) is just part of 'the expenses' for Wall Street. Your job is to have a great HFT algo that front-runs their algo, or launch an app / site so you can sell order flow. Guaranteed income, very low risk.

[surfsail50]

Atlas trading...

This is a huge issue that went on for too long.

[macrowatch]

Time for some wild, mostly unhinged logic based predictions because it's year end:

1. S&P 500 index hits 3000-3200 sometime in 2023. Boringly due to Apple and Microsoft losing PE dropping below 20x.
2. Powell will ultimately be right that inflation on a month to month basis got under control by late 2022, and then Waller as an outspoken recovering dove turned hawk will drive the bus off the cliff accidentally because he's a perennial laggard.
3. SS Daytona will still be the best looking watch in the category of suggested retail price under 20k even though retail sticker will be 15500. Fighting words I know! But this is TRF.
4. China economy will go bonkers (in a good way) by end of 2023 and any kiddo getting red envelopes in 2024 will be happy.
5. Shorting newly minted SPACS will be the best hedge against the final chapter for stimmie hangover.
6. Any scenario that doesn't end in WWIII will be a good scenario coming out of 1918 flu part deux.

[avidflyer]

Who's buying Tesla at $100????

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Time for some wild, mostly unhinged logic based predictions because it's year end:



1. S&P 500 index hits 3000-3200 sometime in 2023. Boringly due to Apple and Microsoft losing PE dropping below 20x.

2. Powell will ultimately be right that inflation on a month to month basis got under control by late 2022, and then Waller as an outspoken recovering dove turned hawk will drive the bus off the cliff accidentally because he's a perennial laggard.

3. SS Daytona will still be the best looking watch in the category of suggested retail price under 20k even though retail sticker will be 15500. Fighting words I know! But this is TRF.

4. China economy will go bonkers (in a good way) by end of 2023 and any kiddo getting red envelopes in 2024 will be happy.

5. Shorting newly minted SPACS will be the best hedge against the final chapter for stimmie hangover.

6. Any scenario that doesn't end in WWIII will be a good scenario coming out of 1918 flu part deux.

Love these!

I'm totally with you on the S&P.

Can't agree about the Daytona (on future price or looks), but I agree Rolex prices will continue downward.

Inflation will decrease only slightly over the first two quarters of 2023, and Powell will return to 75 basis point increases. These half-hearted raises will not help significantly.

China will have several more massive Covid outbreaks, causing their economy to roller coaster through the year. You reap what you sow.

After a spectacular (and totally predictable) pullback in 2022, Bitcoin will outperform every American index, gold, or other commodity in 2023. It will rally into year end especially.

Russia will leave Ukraine and claim an empty victory.

Americans will tire of devisive public servants and move en masse toward a compassionate, sensible form discourse that serves the majority of people (I can wish, can't I?)

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Americans will tire of devisive public servants and move en masse toward a compassionate, sensible form discourse that serves the majority of people (I can wish, can't I?)

And there goes your credibility!

Just kidding. Definitely a good wish, dream, fantasy, etc.

[jaisonline]

Pretty good interview with David Tepper. Start at 11:48


https://overcast.fm/+UWejm-kVo/11:48


His hedge firm is short equity. Increased his short positions last 3 weeks

https://overcast.fm/+UWejm-kVo/11:48

[330ci]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

Who's buying Tesla at $100????

Probably Tesla to keep up the ruse

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Pretty good interview with David Tepper. Start at 11:48


https://overcast.fm/+UWejm-kVo/11:48


His hedge firm is short equity. Increased his short positions last 3 weeks

https://overcast.fm/+UWejm-kVo/11:48

So his portfolio has a question mark.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

So his portfolio has a question mark.

Not sure what you mean. Sorry. I’m usually slow on New Year’s Eve.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Not sure what you mean. Sorry. I’m usually slow on New Year’s Eve.

Maybe I’m drinking on NYE.

[superdog]

I found this to be very interesting. Maybe because it’s inline with my current plan. And so many hold buffet in such high regard, rightfully so. But regardless, I thought I’d post.

I recall a comment or here, at one point correlating the greed of folks holding onto stocks for too long as the same greed when someone is in cash and holding onto it as long as possible before putting it back into the markets. I was baffled by this post. Didn’t respond at the time. Still makes little sense to me.

Right now, I’m about 80% in high yield savings, bonds or CD’s. Earning between 4 and 4.5%, while everything else appears to be losing. I checked my year end and my losses are lower than any major index. I only wish I made the move to cash more aggressively and earlier.

I’m simply trying to hold onto the money I earned. Not sure how that’s greedy. And yes, at a certain point, I’ll reinvest it. But for now, when the markets go down, I lose just a bit in comparison to what used to. I also make between 4 and 4.5%. When the markets go up, I get a little juice and I also make between 4 and 4.5%.

As interest rates go up, I will make more.

Looks like 2023 will be as much pain if not more than 2022. I understand those that are sticking it out. I get it. And in ten years, I’m sure they will be just fine. I do imagine many are wishing they got out when they could have. Clearly it’s too late now.

And imho, it’s hard to fault folks that pulled out given what we have seen and what the horizon appears to hold. It was obviously a gamble at the time. But I have saved a small fortune so far and I look forward to investing it at the right time.

For now, I’ve been quite so comfortable with my investment strategy. It suits my personal goals and my lack of an appetite for risk.

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by superdog

I found this to be very interesting. Maybe because it’s inline with my current plan. And so many hold buffet in such high regard, rightfully so. But regardless, I thought I’d post.

I recall a comment or here, at one point correlating the greed of folks holding onto stocks for too long as the same greed when someone is in cash and holding onto it as long as possible before putting it back into the markets. I was baffled by this post. Didn’t respond at the time. Still makes little sense to me.

Right now, I’m about 80% in high yield savings, bonds or CD’s. Earning between 4 and 4.5%, while everything else appears to be losing. I checked my year end and my losses are lower than any major index. I only wish I made the move to cash more aggressively and earlier.

I’m simply trying to hold onto the money I earned. Not sure how that’s greedy. And yes, at a certain point, I’ll reinvest it. But for now, when the markets go down, I lose just a bit in comparison to what used to. I also make between 4 and 4.5%. When the markets go up, I get a little juice and I also make between 4 and 4.5%.

As interest rates go up, I will make more.

Looks like 2023 will be as much pain if not more than 2022. I understand those that are sticking it out. I get it. And in ten years, I’m sure they will be just fine. I do imagine many are wishing they got out when they could have. Clearly it’s too late now.

And imho, it’s hard to fault folks that pulled out given what we have seen and what the horizon appears to hold. It was obviously a gamble at the time. But I have saved a small fortune so far and I look forward to investing it at the right time.

For now, I’ve been quite so comfortable with my investment strategy. It suits my personal goals and my lack of an appetite for risk.

Nothing greedy about trying to preserve your own money.

Buffet is a guru, I wish I was in the same circle as him intellectually.

I sold out of 95% of my holdings (excluding 401k) between sept-dec 2021. Just been sitting on the cash. I didn’t even put it all in to bonds or CD’s. I get a decent rate in my savings. Transferred some to high yield savings but the majority is just sitting in easily accessible cash so I can jump on any opportunity that presents itself.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by superdog

I found this to be very interesting. Maybe because it’s inline with my current plan. And so many hold buffet in such high regard, rightfully so. But regardless, I thought I’d post.

I recall a comment or here, at one point correlating the greed of folks holding onto stocks for too long as the same greed when someone is in cash and holding onto it as long as possible before putting it back into the markets. I was baffled by this post. Didn’t respond at the time. Still makes little sense to me.

Right now, I’m about 80% in high yield savings, bonds or CD’s. Earning between 4 and 4.5%, while everything else appears to be losing. I checked my year end and my losses are lower than any major index. I only wish I made the move to cash more aggressively and earlier.

I’m simply trying to hold onto the money I earned. Not sure how that’s greedy. And yes, at a certain point, I’ll reinvest it. But for now, when the markets go down, I lose just a bit in comparison to what used to. I also make between 4 and 4.5%. When the markets go up, I get a little juice and I also make between 4 and 4.5%.

As interest rates go up, I will make more.

Looks like 2023 will be as much pain if not more than 2022. I understand those that are sticking it out. I get it. And in ten years, I’m sure they will be just fine. I do imagine many are wishing they got out when they could have. Clearly it’s too late now.

And imho, it’s hard to fault folks that pulled out given what we have seen and what the horizon appears to hold. It was obviously a gamble at the time. But I have saved a small fortune so far and I look forward to investing it at the right time.

For now, I’ve been quite so comfortable with my investment strategy. It suits my personal goals and my lack of an appetite for risk.

It’s definitely a solid strategy. Short term US Treasuries are safe and good yields (with no state income tax) yields. Of course, this all depends on your relative net worth and your age/ time horizon.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by 7sins

FYI they beat because of the one time $30M milestone payment from Otsuka, the selloff was due to lower 2023 projections. What I think most people missed from the call, besides sheer frustration from the incompetency of management and sales team, is Peter/CEO said the court document being released this afternoon will be on the defense arguments for the patent lawsuit. I suspect this will lead to a settlement with SUN, as they settle all of their frivolous lawsuits. MV $700m with $400m in cash with a FDA approved LN best in class drug worth only $350M appears ridiculous to me. A lot of uncertainty here, I am dollar cost averaging, apparently, to $0. Looking forward to digging through this IPR afterhours today.

For those riding the AUPH train with me, exceptional news on the IPR front today, they announced settlement with Sun today (played out exactly as my above post from Nov) https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...0103005512/en/. Waiting to see settlement details and if Sun is planning to pay any royalties to AUPH for their CEQUA product. Interesting day to release the news with the biggest biotech conference of the year next week. VERY happy I DCA'd down in Nov/Dec and posted those trades below to show the benefit of implementing DCA. Hopefully some of you made money as well after the beating from most of last year. Will trim a long the way up again, time to go watch shopping Lets hope 2023 trading pans out better than last year, cheers everyone.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 7sins

For those riding the AUPH train with me, exceptional news on the IPR front today, they announced settlement with Sun today (played out exactly as my above post from Nov) https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...0103005512/en/. Waiting to see settlement details and if Sun is planning to pay any royalties to AUPH for their CEQUA product. Interesting day to release the news with the biggest biotech conference of the year next week. VERY happy I DCA'd down in Nov/Dec and posted those trades below to show the benefit of implementing DCA. Hopefully some of you made money as well after the beating from most of last year. Will trim a long the way up again, time to go watch shopping Lets hope 2023 trading pans out better than last year, cheers everyone.

nice dude!! congrats. that is awesome news.