Prices in anticipated 2023 recession ...

[doyall]

Do prices for used pieces typically fall during a recessionary period or will they increase in conjunction with any list price increases by Rolex?

I haven't kept tract of watch price trends during the last 3 recessions, so I ask thinking someone here surely has.

Can't help but think that as long as inflation stays high, prices new go higher and prices used stay high.

[S7gpt]

well I am certainly no expert but what I have seen in the last 6 months is price increases from AD's and reductions in the grey market !

[enjoythemusic]

Retail price increases due to the expected ~9% devaluation in the Dollar, perhaps 11% for the Brit Pound and Euro.... If only there was a stable currency, there would be no need to increase prices.

[Calatrava r]

Many of the used Rolex watch models are considerably above MSRP so a slight rise in list prices will not affect those much and the used market supply and demand will determine those prices. But generally, as MSRP rises, the models selling used just at, a little above or below list will see an increase on the used market in a stable market. Should demand for Rolex tank at ADs, cases full up and discounting returns, the prices on the used markets will also tank as much and most likely a lot more. Why buy used when you can buy new unless the used price is right. (Which means low)

[Watchsprings]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Many of the used Rolex watch models are considerably above MSRP so a slight rise in list prices will not affect those much and the used market supply and demand will determine those prices. But generally, as MSRP rises, the models selling used just at, a little above or below list will see an increase on the used market in a stable market. Should demand for Rolex tank at ADs, cases full up and discounting returns, the prices on the used markets will also tank as much and most likely a lot more. Why buy used when you can buy new unless the used price is right. (Which means low)

I agree ^

[jayprezzi]

Price will increase yoy. This will help combat the grey market.

[wjv4200]

Lmao

[Polar Bear]

As most Grey Market Youtubers like to say: there may be a market correction, but the bubble hasnt burst yet, and i doubt it will
Especially now that Rolex is in the CPO game. They now have the ability to directly control the new and pre owned markets
Allowing ADs to discount makes little sense when you can now restrict supply in a down market and shunt your customers over to the CPO case

[JoeJoeBobo]

MSRP and then whatever the market will bear.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by doyall

Do prices for used pieces typically fall during a recessionary period or will they increase in conjunction with any list price increases by Rolex?

I haven't kept tract of watch price trends during the last 3 recessions, so I ask thinking someone here surely has.

Can't help but think that as long as inflation stays high, prices new go higher and prices used stay high.

It all depends on what kind of recession we have. If people lose their jobs or get wiped out in the market and need to raise cash, they might sell valuable items and Rolexes are traditionally quite liquid. That's why the Great Recession was such a good time to buy a Rolex.

Anecdotally, a grey I've done business with several times over the last 25 years is starting to build a Rolex inventory again (currently 11 Subs), and has marked down quite a few of them in the last couple weeks. Not by a lot, but still going in the right direction both in terms of inventory and pricing.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by doyall

Can't help but think that as long as inflation stays high, prices new go higher and prices used stay high.

Says the fly-by-night dealer that joined this month

Stop trying to artificially pump up your inventory.

[Vince M.]

Prices are going into the toilet. Revert back to this in March.

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Says the fly-by-night dealer that joined this month

Stop trying to artificially pump up your inventory.

He/they can pump all they want, nobody has any money, especially for 2x msrp rolex.

[doyall]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Says the fly-by-night dealer that joined this month

Stop trying to artificially pump up your inventory.

I trust the chuckle means you jest. If not, you couldn't be more off base.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by doyall

I trust the chuckle means you jest. If not, you couldn't be more off base.

Indeed it was as there have been several dealers disguised as members on these forums as of late trying to stimulate demand and prop up the market. If in fact, you are not one of them, then welcome to the forums.

To answer your question, I would largely agree with Calatrava_r, though the demand side of the equation appears to be drying up by the day (retail as well as secondary/grey market).

[TswaneNguni]

1.05 million annual production (Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult estimate 2021).

Recession,no recession ,there will always be plenty money around in the world to gobble them up .

Annual increase on MRSP is the real long term trend to follow .
New goes up,used goes up and in between we have silly seasons ..

What is more important is the world wide decrease in safety with your physical association with the Rolex on your wrist .
It may become the biggest factor in the white glove after-market pricing.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

What is more important is the world wide decrease in safety with your physical association with the Rolex on your wrist .
It may become the biggest factor in the white glove after-market pricing.

Agreed, I personally have moved on to other brands that fall under the radar. They are also a major talking point for individuals who recognize the references as they are more of IYKYK type of timepieces.

I'm shocked you even wear anything down in jo'burg

[Sauzo]

Might be a recession but my local grey guy sold a 126610LV, 126600, and a 116710BLNR as well as the 124060 I got from him, all in about a week. The 126610LV was tempting but I couldn’t talk him down from 16500 and the BLNR was interesting but again couldn’t talk him down and the BLNR was a 2014 with a nick in the clasp that was too deep to buff out. Then he got the 124060 and I fell in love so it all worked out great for me in the end.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Sauzo

Then he got the 124060 and I fell in love so it all worked out great for me in the end.

Son arrived from the USA today (Day late since the Delta flight had to turn around over the Atlantic back to Atlanta ...technical problems)

Arrived with his 124060 .So,I am wearing his 124060 now and he wears one of mine,a 126610LN.
Its called Rolex optimism in a negative world .

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Says the fly-by-night dealer that joined this month

Stop trying to artificially pump up your inventory.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[atxwatch]

If the recession is severe (which I personally expect), I believe MSRP will continue to be an attractive proposition. Grey values will come down to near MSRP levels or even lower for older watches in worse shape as waiting lists dwindle and inventories rise. Waiting list wait times will go down.

Realistically, all of this has already been happening for months. We are now just waiting for the last leg down, which will be by far the most painful one. And that is the one that will really do the damage to the grey market. Again...ADs will have no problem selling Daytonas and GMTs at MSRP....not even after a 10% increase in January.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Many of the used Rolex watch models are considerably above MSRP so a slight rise in list prices will not affect those much and the used market supply and demand will determine those prices. But generally, as MSRP rises, the models selling used just at, a little above or below list will see an increase on the used market in a stable market. Should demand for Rolex tank at ADs, cases full up and discounting returns, the prices on the used markets will also tank as much and most likely a lot more. Why buy used when you can buy new unless the used price is right. (Which means low)

Really well said Bob

[Skabadi]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

As most Grey Market Youtubers like to say: there may be a market correction, but the bubble hasnt burst yet, and i doubt it will
Especially now that Rolex is in the CPO game. They now have the ability to directly control the new and pre owned markets
Allowing ADs to discount makes little sense when you can now restrict supply in a down market and shunt your customers over to the CPO case

Can’t agree more. I think most are discounting the effect of CPO. Only one reason imhp for rolex to enter pre owned and that is to control secondary prices and from what I’ve seen from Bucherer its only going in one direction and ain’t down…

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

Prices are going into the toilet. Revert back to this in March.

This

[gerry100]

I'm not a player in this but if I were a collector I'd look for opportunities as demand shrinks in the coming downturn.

Established "Greys" who know their business will manage through it, Newcomers may already be dealing with an inventory overhang.

Finding these and negotiating is the key.

Easy for me to say

[Kirk Lazarus]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=853768

[Apples24]

I’ve seen grey dealers now offering a lot less for watches

Also the one I know is currently advertising a few watches on “special offer”

It certainly looks like demand and therefore prices are lower to me

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by Kirk Lazarus

I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=853768

I was going to comment it’s pretty petty to bring up a members old post but that is actually quite funny

[amh]

Rolex is historically recession-proof



The only question to be asked: Are the diamonds & Omegas connected to the Rolex recession-proof?

[Toproll85]

In your place, I won't worry about the Rolex, nor the luxury market, which are apart from the recession/inflation problems of ordinary mortals...

That said, there are brands that were already selling badly that will plummet even more.