Dow 50k

[avidflyer]

Coming soon…50k….The higher we go, the harder the fall will be. I don’t see it, but understand don’t fight it.

[enjoythemusic]

Sure, makes sense as would a Mcdonald's "Happy Meal" being $10. i remember when new homes costs $50,000 for 2400 sq/ft on a 1/3 acre lot in a nice safe neighborhood with excellent quality schools nearby.

Note: A Happy Meal was less than $1 at one point in time. So be sure to account for the value of the currency versus DOW as priced in said currency.

[Letsgodiving]

In 2017 Warren Buffett predicted the Dow would be over 1 million in a hundred years. It is well ahead of schedule so far.

To just reach 1 million the CAGR would be significantly lower than the previous 100 years.

[brandrea]

Not the best chart but you get the idea …

If you believe in the capital markets they always trend up.

What’s really interesting to me is to take a view from a long time horizon as below.

Some of us here are old enough to remember “Black Monday” and the “tech bubble” etc.

At the time, these events seemed catastrophic but over time, they are just a blip on the radar.





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[superdog]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Sure, makes sense as would a Mcdonald's "Happy Meal" being $10. i remember when new homes costs $50,000 for 2400 sq/ft on a 1/3 acre lot in a nice safe neighborhood with excellent quality schools nearby.

Note: A Happy Meal was less than $1 at one point in time. So be sure to account for the value of the currency versus DOW as priced in said currency.

I remember you calling the devaluation of the dollar a long time ago.

I didn't really understand what you were saying.

I do now.

I read something the other day..."your home is not worth more than it was, your money is worth less".

[superdog]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

Coming soon…50k….The higher we go, the harder the fall will be. I don’t see it, but understand don’t fight it.

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

I'm seeing same things. Accounts receivables are piling up, more invoices past due, tenants are needing more time to pay rents.

I'm not sure how student loan forgiveness is ongoing if the SC ruled that it was unconstitutional....

[Easy E]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

Straight up.

[saxo3]

Originally Posted by superdog

…The government is giving away billions in foreign aid…

More specific?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by saxo3

More specific?

I appreciate the ask. Respectfully, I was vague on purpose to avoid breaking the rules.

I was going to leave it out, but felt it was an important aspect of the financial situation in the US.

Suffice to say, we have big issues here. And we send a lot of money to others. I’m all for helping. But if we are broken here, it’s hard to help anyone long term.

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

Really?? I don't visit tattoo parlors but every restaurant, grocery store [apples & oranges I know], liquor store, bike shop, and such are busy as hell and all with help wanted signs.
dP

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

Really?? I don't visit tattoo parlors but every restaurant, grocery store [not apples & oranges I know], liquor store, bike shop, and such are busy as hell and all with help wanted signs.
dP

This is true too. There is a dichotomy for sure.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

Really?? I don't visit tattoo parlors but every restaurant, grocery store [apples & oranges I know], liquor store, bike shop, and such are busy as hell and all with help wanted signs.
dP

Im glad you are seeing that.

I see it too with restaurants. But I think they soon will be hardest hit. Travel will be next in line.

Grocery stores…not really comparable. People have to eat.

Liquor stores I’m not in much. But they flourish in good and bad economic conditions.

I’m in the tri state area. I’m not sure where you are. Everyone I talk to has seen a major decline in business.

I have an office in California as well. They see it there too.

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by superdog

Im glad you are seeing that.

I see it too with restaurants. But I think they soon will be hardest hit. Travel will be next in line.

Grocery stores…not really comparable. People have to eat.

Liquor stores I’m not in much. But they flourish in good and bad economic conditions.

I’m in the tri state area. I’m not sure where you are. Everyone I talk to has seen a major decline in business.

I have an office in California as well. They see it there too.

I'm in a tristate area as well [KY, OH, IN] and things seem to be firing on all cylinders. That includes contractors which I recently found while getting quotes for some deck repair.
dP

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

I'm in a tristate area as well [KY, OH, IN] and things seem to be firing on all cylinders. That includes contractors which I recently found while getting quotes for some deck repair.
dP

I’m glad to hear it.

And while I realize I included some anecdotal examples, from what I gather the devaluation of the dollar is happening all over the country. The inability to buy a home is happening too. Inflation is far exceeding wage increases. Cars are being repossessed and many folks are way under water.

Consumer credit card debt is at its highest level ever. The national debt too.

There are many examples outside of tattoos shops and bike shops.

The markets are rising on the banks of a very select few massive companies.

These are facts.

That you see all this spending in and of itself is concerning.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I am. But it feels to me this has been brewing a very long time. And it started with, or rather was exacerbated by, the super low interest rates.

I hope we keep going. I’m smiling at 4:00 everyday. But I’m also prepared for if I’m right.

[superdog]

Oh. And is your area really referred to as the tri state area? I did not know that.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’m glad to hear it.

And while I realize I included some anecdotal examples, from what I gather the devaluation of the dollar is happening all over the country. The inability to buy a home is happening too. Inflation is far exceeding wage increases. Cars are being repossessed and many folks are way under water.

Consumer credit card debt is at its highest level ever. The national debt too.

There are many examples outside of tattoos shops and bike shops.

The markets are rising on the banks of a very select few massive companies.

These are facts.

That you see all this spending in and of itself is concerning.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I am. But it feels to me this has been brewing a very long time. And it started with, or rather was exacerbated by, the super low interest rates.

I hope we keep going. I’m smiling at 4:00 everyday. But I’m also prepared for if I’m right.

You’re not wrong. Just like in the past, it will all hit the fan. I see bubbles forming everywhere. But we’ll recover and hit the reset button and it will all start again. I’ve got the below quote from Jesse Livermore on my wall in my office.

“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.“

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’m glad to hear it.

And while I realize I included some anecdotal examples, from what I gather the devaluation of the dollar is happening all over the country. The inability to buy a home is happening too. Inflation is far exceeding wage increases. Cars are being repossessed and many folks are way under water.

Consumer credit card debt is at its highest level ever. The national debt too.

There are many examples outside of tattoos shops and bike shops.

The markets are rising on the banks of a very select few massive companies.

These are facts.

That you see all this spending in and of itself is concerning.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I am. But it feels to me this has been brewing a very long time. And it started with, or rather was exacerbated by, the super low interest rates.

I hope we keep going. I’m smiling at 4:00 everyday. But I’m also prepared for if I’m right.

I'm not an economist, I don't play on on TV, and I haven't stayed at a Holiday Inn [thank God], but I've read that wages are outpacing inflation and the biggest deterrent for people buying homes is college debt, although that's not the only reason. I hope you're wrong too [nothing personal, of course]. All I can do is wait & see cause I'm in for the long haul. One of the benefits of old age is watching the bubbles burst, fill up again, and so on and so on....

Originally Posted by superdog

Oh. And is your area really referred to as the tri state area? I did not know that.

Yes it is.
dP

[cerbom]

I see plenty of money and spending and I see people struggling.
I have no idea what it means for the future.
Because I m older I keep a small % in the market and am soaking up the interest rate income now.
I am far from an expert but I m retired and my new cars and new house is paid for.
I thank God for that.
DOW 50K, I can see it if the US doesn t shoot itself in the foot and fall before that time . Time is on the side of the young, but like I said about the one exception.
If I remember correctly Empires last about 200 years.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

You’re not wrong. Just like in the past, it will all hit the fan. I see bubbles forming everywhere. But we’ll recover and hit the reset button and it will all start again. I’ve got the below quote from Jesse Livermore on my wall in my office.

“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.“

Epic quote. Wow.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

I'm not an economist, I don't play on on TV, and I haven't stayed at a Holiday Inn [thank God], but I've read that wages are outpacing inflation and the biggest deterrent for people buying homes is college debt, although that's not the only reason. I hope you're wrong too [nothing personal, of course]. All I can do is wait & see cause I'm in for the long haul. One of the benefits of old age is watching the bubbles burst, fill up again, and so on and so on....


Yes it is.
dP

Well said.

And pretty neat. That’s a fun fact for me.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by superdog

I read something the other day..."your home is not worth more than it was, your money is worth less".

Am truly hoping kids learn math and how to apply it for practical living. Imho it's not difficult at all, though teachers should be more focussed.... imho.

BTW, simple math applied:

_n1.jpg
.
.
Bonus Question: Did average wages go up during this time period to EQUAL the increased 'cost of living'?
.
.

[DocHorton]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everyone I know is slow.

Tattoo shops, barber shops, car dealers, customers, vendors etc.

Homes are unattainable, cars are getting repossessed.

I am getting massive amounts of sales emails and calls.

The government is giving away billions in foreign aid and in the form of student debt forgiveness.

There is a disconnect going on here. Something is wrong.

And markets keep going up and up and up and up.

I am not shy about saying it, but I believe fully a catastrophic hit is coming.

I think this is location dependent. In Texas it is the opposite. Everything is busy, businesses are doing great, restaurants are packed, new construction everywhere. DFW alone added 150k residents last year.

Seems like the economic and governmental policies of certain states actually make a difference.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Am truly hoping kids learn math and how to apply it for practical living. Imho it's not difficult at all, though teachers should be more focussed.... imho.

BTW, simple math applied:

Attachment 1425994
.
.
Bonus Question: Did average wages go up during this time period to EQUAL the increased 'cost of living'?
.
.

Where is the same house actually costing less than it did in 2021? I remember paying a mortgage with a 9 handle many moons ago. Fortunate enough to refinance a few times.

Originally Posted by DocHorton

I think this is location dependent. In Texas it is the opposite. Everything is busy, businesses are doing great, restaurants are packed, new construction everywhere. DFW alone added 150k residents last year.

Seems like the economic and governmental policies of certain states actually make a difference.

There's definitely a migratory shift based on where you live. I read an article the other day that the average house in Socal was just under $1m and the household income to afford it would have to be $275k a year... insane amounts for people who are just starting out or a young family.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by saxo3

More specific?

Just one example.




https://www.reuters.com/business/env...en-2021-11-02/

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[Krash]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

I'm not an economist, I don't play on on TV, and I haven't stayed at a Holiday Inn [thank God], but I've read that wages are outpacing inflation and the biggest deterrent for people buying homes is college debt, although that's not the only reason. I hope you're wrong too [nothing personal, of course]. All I can do is wait & see cause I'm in for the long haul. One of the benefits of old age is watching the bubbles burst, fill up again, and so on and so on....


Yes it is.
dP

Wages aren’t surpassing inflation, unless you work in Silicon Valley.
:).
Statistically it might in 2024 but that doesn’t take into account the inflation of the last 3 years.

Wages are way behind. The problem with inflation is that it never goes backwards. The price increases we recently saw are here to say.

So wages are way behind what they were a few years ago relative to inflation.

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[77T]

I searched for a chart to illustrate what has been said regarding devalued dollar and inflation dilution using the same 100+ years of DJI. It is at the end of my comments.

We should remember that the Dow is an actively managed index. So the components (equities) in 1900, 1950, 2000, and even today are different.



The 14 year trend is a point worth considering. If past performance holds, then a dip may delay the Dow50K.


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[saxo3]

Originally Posted by Krash

Just one example.




https://www.reuters.com/business/env...en-2021-11-02/

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You are lucky that you changed your post before I answered …

[superdog]

Originally Posted by DocHorton

I think this is location dependent. In Texas it is the opposite. Everything is busy, businesses are doing great, restaurants are packed, new construction everywhere. DFW alone added 150k residents last year.

Seems like the economic and governmental policies of certain states actually make a difference.

good point. it sure does feel like that in certain ways.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by 77T

We should remember that the Dow is an actively managed index. So the components (equities) in 1900, 1950, 2000, and even today are different.

#Wisdom