Is Supply Really a Global Issue?

[Charlie_26]

Hello All,

I’m hoping I can draw on collective experiences with this thread. Having recently visited several London ADs, despite their great customer service at me wanting to buy a watch for my retirement, all had suspended registration of interest for the model I wanted: an Oystersteel GMT Master II.

Research is saying that we are on the edge of Rolex releasing more watches, and admittedly I’m in no rush. However I have seen some social media content of people seemingly getting lucky when visiting airport ADs, but that’s got to be lottery odds.

It seems that the UK is united at present in not registering interest for new steel GMTs, and with the expectation that if you are serious you should visit an AD, here is my question. Is there anywhere else in the world that is currently bucking this trend? I read that Dubai, Hong Kong, and Singapore were always a bit more progressive, but I have no idea if this is still the case. The USA has so many ADs, but as emails never get answered (which I totally understand) then it would potentially be an expensive voyage of discovery to go and speak to some dealers in person. I’m probably going to do this anyway, as to combine a trip with visiting Rolex ADs is a pretty exciting prospect.

I’d be really grateful if you could give me your thoughts on this, and where might be worth a visit. I guess if I’m getting “interviewed
“ as a prospective buyer by an AD, then this might go in my favour.

[inadeje]

Since you’re in or approaching retirement, how about a quick trip across the pond? Come to Florida, Orlando is popular with brits, right next to Orlando you have DavidSW and here in Miami we have numerous top-rate dealers too. Unless it’s the BLRO (aka Pepsi) you seek you are going to be getting a brand new unworn example at or around your UK MRSP. Largely due to your absurd 21% VAT and exchange rates. Nothing like a dual focus vacation, eh?

[S.Explorer]

Try non-Central London ADs or outside London. Mine had re-opened the steel GMT list albeit a while ago (maybe it's closed again!).

[brandrea]

Welcome to the forum

It really varies from SD to AD, and customer to customer, but in general the professional Rolex models especially the GMTs take some time to acquire.

I believe as a first it’ll be an uphill battle with a lengthy wait time. Personally I’d go gray and save yourself the aggravation

[Harry-57]

I expect that the perceived UK wide embargo on registering interest in the 126710BLRO depends on nothing more than who you ask and who you are and where you are. My inclination would be to keep asking at intervals. It worked for me - in the end.

The only caveat is that the watch is about to be discontinued and dealers already know. This is unlikely.

[Charlie_26]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Since you’re in or approaching retirement, how about a quick trip across the pond? Come to Florida, Orlando is popular with brits, right next to Orlando you have DavidSW and here in Miami we have numerous top-rate dealers too. Unless it’s the BLRO (aka Pepsi) you seek you are going to be getting a brand new unworn example at or around your UK MRSP. Largely due to your absurd 21% VAT and exchange rates. Nothing like a dual focus vacation, eh?

This is exactly what I’ve been looking at doing, so it’s great to get your insight on how achievable this might be. I’m not even thinking about the Pepsi, I’ve more chance of finding unicorn droppings! This sort of vacation is the way forward for sure. I noticed that there are some ADs in those states that are tax free too, but I’d imagine there’s a lot of interest there. I’ve had no joy with emails…

Thanks for your advice

[Charlie_26]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Welcome to the forum

It really varies from SD to AD, and customer to customer, but in general the professional Rolex models especially the GMTs take some time to acquire.

I believe as a first it’ll be an uphill battle with a lengthy wait time. Personally I’d go gray and save yourself the aggravation

Thank you. I thought that gray market was my only realistic option, but the GMTs are attracting such a huge premium for resellers that it’s running around 50% over MRP for Batgirl and Bruce Wayne. I love the watch, but those numbers are crazy, even if I can’t even get on a waiting list.

[Charlie_26]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

I expect that the perceived UK wide embargo on registering interest in the 126710BLRO depends on nothing more than who you ask and who you are and where you are. My inclination would be to keep asking at intervals. It worked for me - in the end.

The only caveat is that the watch is about to be discontinued and dealers already know. This is unlikely.

That’s very interesting, but as the watch has taken on a mythical like status, I wonder if many would notice it had been discontinued. It would still never be seen at an AD, although I’d love to be proved wrong. I guess that means there must be something in the pipeline in terms of a replacement?

[Charlie_26]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Since you’re in or approaching retirement, how about a quick trip across the pond? Come to Florida, Orlando is popular with brits, right next to Orlando you have DavidSW and here in Miami we have numerous top-rate dealers too. Unless it’s the BLRO (aka Pepsi) you seek you are going to be getting a brand new unworn example at or around your UK MRSP. Largely due to your absurd 21% VAT and exchange rates. Nothing like a dual focus vacation, eh?

You’re definitely talking my language! I haven’t even entertained the Pepsi as it’s almost like asking about a forbidden item, or hunting for unicorn droppings. Tax is crazy here, but I notice that you have some tax free states in the USA! Good old Uncle Sam. They do have ADs in those states too, but no joy with emails, and a long way to go on a punt. Mind you, no tax!
Orlando a bit out of season could be a winner for sure. Thanks for the advice!

[Opifex]

Originally Posted by Charlie_26

You’re definitely talking my language! I haven’t even entertained the Pepsi as it’s almost like asking about a forbidden item, or hunting for unicorn droppings. Tax is crazy here, but I notice that you have some tax free states in the USA! Good old Uncle Sam. They do have ADs in those states too, but no joy with emails, and a long way to go on a punt. Mind you, no tax!
Orlando a bit out of season could be a winner for sure. Thanks for the advice!

If you are going to the US to go to an AD then you can forget about it. I travel through every major city in the US and unless you have the intention of spending large amounts of money on jewelry then it will not happen. You are not local to any of these ADs and many will prefer to sell to their local clients. I refuse to play those games. Now if you want to visit a reseller and know that the watch you want is there and you can walk out with it the same day then sure it might be worth a trip over to get it.

Almost every reseller has one of each GMT or can source one for you. Do not make a trip to the US on a gamble that you might find one at an AD.

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by Charlie_26

You’re definitely talking my language! I haven’t even entertained the Pepsi as it’s almost like asking about a forbidden item, or hunting for unicorn droppings. Tax is crazy here, but I notice that you have some tax free states in the USA! Good old Uncle Sam. They do have ADs in those states too, but no joy with emails, and a long way to go on a punt. Mind you, no tax!
Orlando a bit out of season could be a winner for sure. Thanks for the advice!

Thanks. Just to clarify, I wasn’t recommending trying ADs over here because largely, as others have already mentioned, you will not be successful. They prioritize local residents mostly. However, what I was suggesting was the grey dealers in our state. As I said, DavidSW is close to the major attractions in Orlando, and if you decide to visit Miami then the buying opportunities are endless. As I said, by the time you add your VAT and factor the other AD nonsense over there your entry cost for a non pepsi unworn contemporary GMT over here is likely to be the same or lower than an AD purchase in the UK.

If you decide on Miami send me a PM and I will happily show you around the epicenter of used watch dealers here, the Seybold building, and adjacent grey dealers.

[Charlie_26]

Originally Posted by Opifex

If you are going to the US to go to an AD then you can forget about it. I travel through every major city in the US and unless you have the intention of spending large amounts of money on jewelry then it will not happen. You are not local to any of these ADs and many will prefer to sell to their local clients. I refuse to play those games. Now if you want to visit a reseller and know that the watch you want is there and you can walk out with it the same day then sure it might be worth a trip over to get it.

Almost every reseller has one of each GMT or can source one for you. Do not make a trip to the US on a gamble that you might find one at an AD.

Thank you. That does make sense. Why would they roll out the red carpet for an out of towner who looks like he’s here to plunder what goodies the AD has? I don’t know if Rolex tourism is a thing yet? I certainly wouldn’t jump on a plane without some sort of comms that there would be a sale to be had at the other end, so I definitely need to factor in resellers, which outside the UK I hadn’t done so far.

[Charlie_26]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Thanks. Just to clarify, I wasn’t recommending trying ADs over here because largely, as others have already mentioned, you will not be successful. They prioritize local residents mostly. However, what I was suggesting was the grey dealers in our state. As I said, DavidSW is close to the major attractions in Orlando, and if you decide to visit Miami then the buying opportunities are endless. As I said, by the time you add your VAT and factor the other AD nonsense over there your entry cost for a non pepsi unworn contemporary GMT over here is likely to be the same or lower than an AD purchase in the UK.

If you decide on Miami send me a PM and I will happily show you around the epicenter of used watch dealers here, the Seybold building, and adjacent grey dealers.

That’s very kind of you and I will definitely do that. I did think that you were referring to grey dealers rather than ADs, and had a look at DavidSW straight after I read your message. Miami is a great place to hang out!

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Charlie_26

I guess that means there must be something in the pipeline in terms of a replacement?

Unknown to the likes of us. The 116610LV had "closed" waiting lists in the UK over two years before it was discontinued. That is to say they were closed to me, I don't know if they were closed to everyone.

My dentist told me the BLRO was being discontinued this year but he couldn't remember where he got the specifics from!

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Charlie_26

Thank you. I thought that gray market was my only realistic option, but the GMTs are attracting such a huge premium for resellers that it’s running around 50% over MRP for Batgirl and Bruce Wayne. I love the watch, but those numbers are crazy, even if I can’t even get on a waiting list.

But if you want one that is your only option. You can also start buying a lot of stuff at an AD to build a relationship and perhaps get on that way. The premium is far cheaper in the long run.

[Dave O]

As others have stated, USA AD's won't sell to someone from out of country let alone out of the local area. Most AD's in the US only sell to locals. They won't respond to emails (unless they know you), and if you try to call them they will tell you that you need to visit in person as they don't want to be selling to flippers.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Thanks. Just to clarify, I wasn’t recommending trying ADs over here because largely, as others have already mentioned, you will not be successful. They prioritize local residents mostly. However, what I was suggesting was the grey dealers in our state. As I said, DavidSW is close to the major attractions in Orlando, and if you decide to visit Miami then the buying opportunities are endless. As I said, by the time you add your VAT and factor the other AD nonsense over there your entry cost for a non pepsi unworn contemporary GMT over here is likely to be the same or lower than an AD purchase in the UK.

If you decide on Miami send me a PM and I will happily show you around the epicenter of used watch dealers here, the Seybold building, and adjacent grey dealers.

Yes. Every AD I ever went to in FL or PA asks, “where do you live?”

They sell to the locals.

I’d imagine the only exceptions are probably somewhere like Las Vegas.


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[CarlOver]

If this is your experience in your region, then I think you have no choice but to wait and see what happens. What you are being told is not what is being told to everyone. People are picking up many, many hundreds of watches from your AD on a monthly basis. The watches are coming in but there are many folks ahead of you that want the same watch. Some have spent quite a bit and some are friends of Rolex. Be patient and best to you!

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Charlie_26

That’s very interesting, but as the watch has taken on a mythical like status, I wonder if many would notice it had been discontinued. It would still never be seen at an AD, although I’d love to be proved wrong. I guess that means there must be something in the pipeline in terms of a replacement?

Funny, the BLRO is the one mainstay at the ADs I frequent. Always on display and (from what I saw last) something they do get in inventory…

Certainly more common than the SS Daytonas (either) and also more common than the Celebration Dial OPs…

[ArtNouveau]

There is nowhere in the US that you can just walk into an AD and get a SS GMT. Nowhere in the world really.

[Fleetlord]

You will not be able to acquire that reference from an AD. It’s simply too late. Too many individuals ahead of you….everywhere

[Charlie_26]

Feedback is certainly a gift. The landscape has changed a lot since I bought my last GMT II from an AD in the UK 10 years ago. There was no waiting then, so the picture right now is one I have to get used to. Agreed that I will be a number on an AD list unless the gray market becomes the more attractive option.

If some influencers are to be believed and Rolex start releasing more stock, would you expect to see those gray market prices starting to come down?

[NigeG]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Thanks. Just to clarify, I wasn’t recommending trying ADs over here because largely, as others have already mentioned, you will not be successful. They prioritize local residents mostly. However, what I was suggesting was the grey dealers in our state. As I said, DavidSW is close to the major attractions in Orlando, and if you decide to visit Miami then the buying opportunities are endless. As I said, by the time you add your VAT and factor the other AD nonsense over there your entry cost for a non pepsi unworn contemporary GMT over here is likely to be the same or lower than an AD purchase in the UK.

If you decide on Miami send me a PM and I will happily show you around the epicenter of used watch dealers here, the Seybold building, and adjacent grey dealers.

Our UK AD Retail price for a GMT Master II is £9450 inc Vat but of course it’s made out of unobtainium. As others have said the wait list is closed. Has been closed at my local AD since around 2020.

Present exchange rate makes that ball park $11710 inc fees. So only a few hundred dollars more than one in the States depending on the Sales Tax.

I can’t imagine there will be any unworn, pre owned versions hanging around at below $15K exc Tax in the US. They’re probably closer to $20K.


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[Krash]

Originally Posted by Charlie_26

If some influencers are to be believed and Rolex start releasing more stock, would you expect to see those gray market prices starting to come down?

Releasing more “stock” won’t matter if there is still more demand than supply.





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[inadeje]

Originally Posted by Charlie_26

That’s very kind of you and I will definitely do that. I did think that you were referring to grey dealers rather than ADs, and had a look at DavidSW straight after I read your message. Miami is a great place to hang out!

You’re welcome, anytime

[SVH]

go with a trusted grey dealer - the manufactured scarcity will not change,

[Krash]

Originally Posted by SVH

go with a trusted grey dealer - the manufactured scarcity will not change,

Let's do some simple math.

Rolex makes 1.2 million watches per year (as discussed in another thread).

Let's assume they double production to 2.4 million. That's a tall order by any metric, but let's assume they do that.

And let's also assume global demand is still greater than 2.4 million watches, which is likely. You still have a demand/supply disparity even after doubling production.

That's why I don't buy into this "manufactured scarcity" conspiracy theory.

[Charlie_26]

Originally Posted by Krash

Releasing more “stock” won’t matter if there is still more demand than supply.





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That’s a really good point. With Rolex having the provenance of being able to sell each new watch many times over, even a huge wave of production wouldn’t make that much difference in demand vs supply.

Another bit of sage advice. Thank you.

[joli160]

Unfortunately it’s either grey or not at all