Talking Stocks 2.0

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Fabrice M

I trade futures for a living, and my personal opinion is that we haven’t seen the bottom yet. Right now the government is in effect subsidizing the stock market, but at some point the money will run out, the recession will really kick-in and the market should eventually become a bear market. I wouldn’t be surprise to see the ES go down as much 17-1800. Personally as far as equities I cashed out a while ago and patiently waiting. If I look at fundamentals I can’t see a recovery anytime soon.

In Denver two very good CTA shops I know of. One that focuses on medium to long-term counter-trend and another that focuses on shorter-term trend reversions and counter-trend. I think it's possible for pure trend-followers to get whipsawed in the 2nd half of the year though conversely bc of the reasons you mention. We'll probably see a risk on/risk off market the next 3-5 years.

I think you are correct. The market still hasn't seen the full impact imo of the stay at home orders and what has happened to small business. Most don't have more than a few months of liquidity imo, so we may see bankruptcies lag. Most S&P 500 companies have 40% + revenue ties outside the US as well, so they could be hurt going forward in a lagging effect as well.

All just my non-professional opinion ....