Talking Stocks 2.0

[KokPingBalzac]

Most of the quality names have run up to a level that I consider to be above fair value and at a level where I'll likely hold. If earnings come through strong this week for HD and LOW I think this rally has more gas in it- maybe another 10% for the SPY.

Fortunately i have managed my cash levels well through the first half of the year and in the downturn I was able to pick up some shares of what I consider to be S-Tier very high quality companies at reasonable prices. Those were AVGO, TXN, ARE, NVDA, AMD, TSM, CQP, LVMUY, DEO, and ABNB. I'm already up nicely on many of these positions. I don't think I got an insane deal- maybe had a 10-20% margin of safety down in the worst days of June on most of those names.

If the rally does want to continue- I expect quality cash flowing mid and small caps to continue their rally- they are far cheaper on average than US large caps are atm. I will swing trade part of my positions in IVOO and VIOO to get exposure to this (these two ETFs are core holdings of mine, however). International equities may also have more gas in the tank- but really dependent on country and their current circumstances.

Some lower quality names are also showing bullish tendencies in their charts and haven't ran like the rest of the market has- I opened a position in DAL and F in the past week. From everything I've read the airlines are kicking butt right now, and I think DAL could have a shot to run up another 30-40% if their margins get back in line- the revenues are already almost back to where they were in 2019- which was a great year for them. F is kicking butt as well right now- their margin expansion in Q2 was astonishing, I think something like 600 basis points. They're focusing on cleaning up their balance sheet right now paying down big debt and huge backlog of F150 and Mustang Mach E sales. I think their near term future is very bright- they make a good car.