Florida Real Estate

[superdog]

Curious what the thought bank here has to say. I imagine it’ll be a mixed bag. But asking anyway.

I’m in Delray Beach visiting my folks for the holiday. Flying home now actually.

But for a year I’ve been flirting with the idea of retiring here. I’m only 49, but it might happen in a year or so. Or it might happen in 10. Hard to say exactly. And retirement will be only from what I’m doing now. I don’t know what I’d do, but I know I’d have to do something to keep my squirrel mind occupied.

Anyway…

I went looking yesterday in Delray. I really like the area. But dang… I can not afford anything I want. A small condo, 25 minute walk to the beach, was a million bucks. The homes I really liked were 3 million plus, easy. Are they nice? Yes. Definitely. But for that kind of loot. Dang.

Not sure what I was expecting. I’ve been looking online for a while now. Looking in person is different. I live in the hottest market in north jersey. Puts my area to shame.

I can start looking further from the beach. Or I can start looking at other areas. I actually prefer Tampa, but it’s far from my folks which is part of my motivation to be here.

Now to the crux of my question. You think these prices will hold, retract or grow? I know that none of you have crystal balls. But you guys are smart. Some of you anyway. And I value opinions.

My opinion: prices are going to hold or grow. This area is hot and that’s not changing. Low RE taxes and no income tax. People from jersey and New York are flocking here. There are currently more job opportunities in Fla than in New York. I think things will hold at a minimum.

That said, I’m very tight with a number of very successful industrial brokers. Most of them dabble in residential to diversify their investments. They, almost all of them, think there will be a big drop. And in the next 12-18 months. Their reasoning is that demand spiked massively. So there is a ton of development. But with the uncertain economy and the increased interest rates, the demand is lessening greatly. The increased inventory and the decreased demand will create a drop in prices. They have other reasons too. But that’s the theme.

Keep in mind, pricing has jumped nearly 100% in the last 4 years.

Fwiw, I have learned I cannot trust residential RE agents. I’m sure there are good ones. But I have learned they tell you what’s good for them, not what’s good for you. I realize it’s the nature of a commission based industry. But as a sales professional I made a career out of gaining trust by doing what’s best for my customers. My personal experience has been disappointing both in jersey and in Fla. Even with friends. Even after I warn them about past experiences. Their goal is to sell something, anything, at all costs.

So I’d value what I hear here. Which is very likely unbiased options based on the above.