Your thoughts about current market and Rolex supply

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

The car market is returning to normal, I saw a commercial for 0.99% financing for F-150s just yesterday, Porsche values are dropping drastically. I'd say Rolex will follow suit soon enough.

Drastic drops - maybe a question of definition?

Just checked BAT and compared to my insurance coverage for one of my Porsches (997.2 4S manual). My coverage was increased to market near the height of the bubble. $85k for a 40,000 mile, great condition, highly demanded spec sheet. Asks at that time (though admittedly a less common car, maybe 5 comps listed nationally) - about $100-$110k. A less desirable but similar car, 50% MORE mileage, just sold on BAT this month for $72k. Given mileage, it easily puts my car around $80-$85k. BAT usually transacts at higher end of market so I’ll call my car $80k as it sits. Not exactly a dramatic decline.

Newer Porsches… well, I received my allocation for a GT4 back in 2016 or so. At the time they were in high enough demand that I could have flipped my allocation for a 20-25%+ immediate profit. In 2016…

I see Porsche prices cooling, though less so for the truly more desirable, mid-tier collectible cars (like my manual 997.2 4S coupe). Perhaps more so for any moderns trading above msrp well into 6 figures. I don’t see any big declines unless we have a protracted recession. That is unlikely as the Fed now has significant dry powder after this rapid rate increase cycle. Any real downturn will take the legs our of inflation and will allow for a rate cut. Especially during an election year.

The sports car market, watches, long list of various collectibles. All have segments that have been hit pretty hard already. Plenty areas of continued resilience, however. Doesn’t feel like a buyer’s market right now for most areas but we may get there in the next few months. I am pretty indifferent one way or the other.