Chasing steel Nautilus in 2024

[FrançoisCzapek]

I was curious whether people think the market has stabilized enough to pursue discontinued steel Nautilus models on the gray market. Prices have gone back down to 2020 levels (which are not low, despite being almost half of peak 2022) but many pre-Covid steel models have since been discontinued.

I'm wondering if anyone who was genuinely interested in a steel Nautilus could consider getting one as there are many on the secondary market now and not be wary that prices on these hyped pieces will continue to drop.

Questions:

1) Have prices stabilized enough that someone who saved up for a steel Nautilus can consider it now, or should he be wary that prices may still have some more to decline? Steel Nautilus are still above retail, but much less than 100% over retail (or what would be projected to be retail) now (although retail price has also increased).

2) Is there any specific model whose price history diverged, such as the price declining much more or much less than the rest?

3) Is it smart to pursue steel over gold in 2024 (assuming it's the look you like to begin with), with steel maintaining a cachet and gold (especially yellow and rose) less popular with younger buyers? Or might the premium on steel collapse the moment Patek releases new steel models?

(In particular, would you pursue the white gold 5740 if it's within budget, or would you go for the steel complications only if you want a complication despite the thicker watch?)

4) Is it smart to pursue the thinner basic 5711 or the 5712 over the thicker complications (again, assuming it's the look you like)? These seem to have proved popular due the the thinness, even if the 5711 is not really rare and the 5712 has that asymmetric dial.

5) Is there any particular dial and face to look out for (excluding Tiffany dials)? I understand blue is desirable and arguably looks best on these older Nautilus, but that black and white are rarer.

6) Is there any particular configuration to look out for specifically for Nautilus, such as focusing on steel bracelet over leather strap models?

7) Is there any particular advice on checking that a gray market watch has not been polished?

8) Would you consider building a relationship with an AD in 2024 if a Nautilus is the goal, or just buy gray if you think there is a short term price window to pursue? Presumably waiting lists remain just as long and enough of the hype is alive.