What if there were no grey market?

[enjoythemusic]

^^^ well said.

[thenewrick]

It would make trading more of a thing and give more profits to individual sellers and lower prices to individual buyers overall. Less availability in general. More of a reliance on professional watch makers for verification and servicing. Pretty much just eliminates a middle man that harms consumers and the industry. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

[james309]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

^^^ well said.

I agree

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[Lithographica]

"What if there was no grey market?" was actually a line from the cut 4th verse of John Lennon's "Imagine". Rumor has it he cut it because the line was too unrealistic.

[SLWoodster]

Just buy it market price.

[Harry-57]

If there were no grey dealers, many of my watches would have cost me considerably more. That's the problem with tunnel vision, one person's perfect world is everyone else's dystopia.

But on the bright side, I would have less watches to insure and would have spent less on winders, servicing, etc.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by MRBolton

I heard an interesting theory in a Bark & Jack video recently regarding the supply of watches at ADs being MUCH improved if the grey market opportunists weren't in place. He searched for some 2020 Oyster Perpetual model on Chrono24 and showed where there were something like 1k+ listings for the specific variant. And these listing represent watches not in the "right" hands (those not looking to make a quick buck).

In a perfect world without the "greys" raking enthusiasts over the coals, is there likely enough supply to have a much more "normal" market?

There's no way to really get rid of the grey market dealers, but I'm curious how much of the current situation is attributable to them.

Yes it’s math. People will dispute it because they like to dispute things but sorry math cannot be disputed, it’s not a debate. People play fast and loose with facts these days but the reality is we are all competing against the gray beast quadruple dipping at the trough each week. Thousands at the grays, and they stay in the hands of the AD, back to “normal”. But that said, even in the mid 90’s there was multiple year waitlist for the Daytona. But subs, gmt, explorers I and II yes all available at walk in first come first serve.

[RatDog19]

When I first knew I wanted a DSSD, none of the ADs had one, which was not a shock. DavidSW had them in stock, and I ordered one. The next day I had my Rolex, which I enjoy to this day. I understand why people don't like Grey Market dealers, but if you need immediate gratification, it works.

[zengineer]

Grey dealers are there because of the supply/demand imbalance. If the supply exceeded demand the greys would be selling under msrp as was the case over the years on many watches.

I know people want desperately to find a boogie man to blame but grey dealers exist because of the market. They don't create watches or reduce supply...they simply step in because AD prices are artificially ablove or below the natural market price.

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[Just1More]

Originally Posted by EEpro

So where were you back when there was stock? I used to walk past Rolex at Mall at Millenia in Orlando when they were stocked full of subs and GMTs.

If there was no grey market there would be less demand and the AD would be full of watches "nobody wanted" instead.

Would these buyers be so desperate to buy a Pepsi at $10,000 if they couldn't even sell it for more than $6,000 in a pinch?

We used to this and used to that. We all used to do something. This is a discussion of what’s going on now and not what was in the past. Having said that I don’t have a solution

[Atone]

Originally Posted by EEpro

So where were you back when there was stock? I used to walk past Rolex at Mall at Millenia in Orlando when they were stocked full of subs and GMTs.

If there was no grey market there would be less demand and the AD would be full of watches "nobody wanted" instead.

Would these buyers be so desperate to buy a Pepsi at $10,000 if they couldn't even sell it for more than $6,000 in a pinch?

Exactly. When AD’s couldn’t give away hulks, no one wanted them at retail. Everyone looked for a discount with grey sellers.

[Krash]

The grey market is not the disease. It’s a symptom of the disease.

I like Bark & Jack but he doesn’t always know what he’s talking about.


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Or go deeper, why is there massive currency available to purchase luxury goods and services? Also, why buy items of intrinsic value versus wasting value on guaranteed losers like 2% bonds?

Yeah, what could be more certain winner than buying trinkets at 2x-3x the price other people pay?

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by Krash

The grey market is not the disease. It’s a symptom of the disease.

I like Bark & Jack but he doesn’t always know what he’s talking about.


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agreed. as long as people are willing to pay these inflated prices, this will continue.

clearly watches have become an alternate place to park money, like art, so the question is, how long will this be the case. i definitely see this being the case and not that mechanical watches are simply popular again.

could be the case that the grays buy up too many watches and then get stuck with a bunch of inventory worth less than what they paid.

[mountainjogger]

By definition that would mean that no one would ever sell or trade a watch.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Pentameter

... In a sense the Grey market can be viewed about the same as scalpers ...

Scalpers .... I’m not going to get into what I paid for U2 tickets the last time they were in Chicago

[Atone]

Originally Posted by vh2k

The strength in the secondary market and appreciating Rolex values fuel more and more demand to the primary channel (ADs). But, at the end of the day, it's all end-user demand -- regardless of the purchase motivation -- because the secondary reseller has to eventually sell through to a buyer.

Yes, and, what EEpro is saying has a lot of merit. If buyers feel little risk in entering a market, they will be more inclined to part with a higher premium. Both seem to be relevant factors in driving up price. “Bull” market faith creates a never ending stream of end users.

[nachopc]

I think those watches would by in hands of end users and with the demand we have now would be impossible to get them as today. At least with grey you have an expensive chance to have them.


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[Lukebennett21]

I think some of it has to do with the high prices the watches are commanding, meaning many - including myself would feel comfortable in selling a $20,000 watch to some random person on a forum.

[upsidedownbelt]

You have to take the good with the bad on the greys.