RO Skeleton

[Timnyc]

Hi all,

Long story short, I have been eyeing on the RO Openworked 41mm for such a long long time. But the price keeps increasing like nonstop, so I decide to go with the 37mm instead. I inquired one of the grey dealers and he quoted $130K for a preowned. Shocked literally!

Anyways, I expressed my interest with the AP boutique that I had great relationship with. So far they helped me get the 15500ST and 26315ST, which I truly appreciated. But when I told them about the Openworked 37mm, my SA said that they already had long list of customers lining up for that model.

Now the question is: do you think he simply told me to buy something else first before getting offered the skeleton? Or should I just go grey at this point? From your experience, it it difficult to get the Openworked 37mm from the boutique?

Any comment is appreciated! Thanks

[huncho]

steel or gold? chrono has the rose gold 37 for 130s but i know the market is limited so i don't know how accurate that is. have you considered the 39mm discontinued one? i believe that one is still lagging behind the 41 in terms of price

not sure how hard it will be to get the 37 from a boutique tbh, seems like it has much less interest than the 41 even though still an amazing piece

[dchang81]

i always wondered why the 39 lags when from what i remember was harder to get since it was the jumbo size like the 15202

[Timnyc]

Originally Posted by huncho

steel or gold? chrono has the rose gold 37 for 130s but i know the market is limited so i don't know how accurate that is. have you considered the 39mm discontinued one? i believe that one is still lagging behind the 41 in terms of price

not sure how hard it will be to get the 37 from a boutique tbh, seems like it has much less interest than the 41 even though still an amazing piece

I dont think the 37mm comes in steel version. 39mm preowned price is comparable to the 37mm, so I rather go with 37mm. For sure 41mm is still the best option, but it's way out my league lol

[macrowatch]

My very nice SA told me candidly i could spend 500k UsD and it wouldn’t make much of a difference.

[dchang81]

so 501k wink wink

[joshparkdc]

There's no set list of waiting list. If you purchase more, then you'll get on the list, and maybe even move up the list depending on your purchase. All depends on your purchase history and relationship with your AD.

I say if that's the only watch you want, then grey, but if you're open to adding a couple more into your collection, start building your purchase history.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Timnyc

I dont think the 37mm comes in steel version. 39mm preowned price is comparable to the 37mm, so I rather go with 37mm. For sure 41mm is still the best option, but it's way out my league lol

ah true, for some reason i thought there was a 37 in steel. 130k seems like a decent deal considering the others though but just for reference it was up for 69k in dec 2019 here, so almost double that now, but it's a rose gold openworked and 15500or's are going for like 90-100k, so i think there's value here. love the watch but the only thing i dislike about it is the text on the glass, makes it look like a sticker.

[GreenLantern]

The whole thing is a joke these days.

The lists mean nothing.

The market prices mean nothing.

Who sets them anyway? Most of the greys are just selling back and forth between each other, anyway. And then the truly reputable greys are keying their list prices off those prices (what else could they do, really).

[CactusTreeFiddy]

Yep, I dont know how can anyone can take any Grey market prices seriously

If you omit the GM sellers buying back and forth among themselves, simply claiming their item got "SOLD! THANKS TRF!" 'd, there's nothing to say the current prices are literally where supply meets legitimate demand

That, and we have no idea what the actual sale price was for any sold piece

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by CactusTreeFiddy

Yep, I dont know how can anyone can take any Grey market prices seriously

If you omit the GM sellers buying back and forth among themselves, simply claiming their item got "SOLD! THANKS TRF!" 'd, there's nothing to say the current prices are literally where supply meets legitimate demand

That, and we have no idea what the actual sale price was for any sold piece

I mean, honestly, who here has paid $400k for a Green 5711?

And I know people will say "Well, no one will admit to it!!" but that's maybe an indicator, too.

I'm sure one or two people will do it (i.e., the person who paid it at that silly auction a few weeks back), but there's one listed on EWC at $400k right now. I bet it goes pending, disappears, and goes to another grey, then comes back to EWC, rinse & repeat.

[chiscott_29]

I don’t mean to “defend” grays with this comment, nor do they need me to or care what any of us on here say or think about their business.

However, I think there is some element of delusion in all of us that keep saying this is all “grays selling to each other” and “secondary market prices mean nothing”.

Can somebody actually PROVE or DEFEND those statements? If so, please do it. Post evidence that Royal Oaks have went from $25k to $30k to $35k to $50k+ because of grays buying and selling from each other.

I’ve dealt with most of the grays on here. I also have had some very detailed and private conversations with people in this industry (and for the sake of clarity I don’t mean any of the grays that have good standing here on TRF). Sure, there’s some horse trading between them. There is also an entire wholesale market. But if anybody thinks the current market prices are only supported by grays trading or that their prices are arbitrary and that it’s smoke and mirrors, you really are kidding yourself.

You have to remember these people run a business and that business is selling watches and generating cash flow. If you think there is some sort of conspiracy or coordination between all of grays to inflate the market and they coordinate to keep prices high, well…I don’t know what to really say. Who would spend their time and energy doing that? It would honestly be a fruitless business.

The market prices are very real. REAL PEOPLE are paying those prices. And the funny thing is more and more do so each and every day when they realize the REAL issue and REAL hypocrisy is trying to play the games from an AD. THAT is what is causing prices to go higher…more and more buyers are pushed to the gray market. Incentives are so out of whack that it’s literally become impossible or flat out dumb to play the AD game for most people.

End of rant. LOL.

Back to the OP’s topic - Go gray. If you doubt that your AD will get you the skeleton, you’re right.


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[benlee]

Was discussing with a friend the other day.

Yes global demand for luxury watches is thru the roof, either because of too much liquidity and too many new millionaires joining the ranks and when there's a lot of disposable income, people tend to want to buy something nice and watches are appealing esp those that hold value. Another big factor is money itself is basically depreciating due to all the stimulus and low interest rates across the globe so people want to park their money in liquid assets such as property, gold bars, crypto and yes, even watches.

I think we have to admit by now watches, esp those that retain value have become an asset class. This situation will not change baring a full blown economic depression. It's not a bubble but here to stay.

I for one don't like this situation as it is not a good thing for us collectors that want to buy new watches and will be downright frustrating for new comers to this hobby.

[singe89]

Originally Posted by benlee

Was discussing with a friend the other day.

Yes global demand for luxury watches is thru the roof, either because of too much liquidity and too many new millionaires joining the ranks and when there's a lot of disposable income, people tend to want to buy something nice and watches are appealing esp those that hold value. Another big factor is money itself is basically depreciating due to all the stimulus and low interest rates across the globe so people want to park their money in liquid assets such as property, gold bars, crypto and yes, even watches.

I think we have to admit by now watches, esp those that retain value have become an asset class. This situation will not change baring a full blown economic depression. It's not a bubble but here to stay.

I for one don't like this situation as it is not a good thing for us collectors that want to buy new watches and will be downright frustrating for new comers to this hobby.

This is exactly how I think about it and feel

[GreenLantern]

The average customer of TPG is not benefitting from the cheap money that you are referring to.

The cheap money tends to go to Corporations and wealthy investors. Some of us are here on TRF, yes, it's true. But most of those people are not buying from TPG and most greys. Most of those people already have established relationships with ADs and Boutiques, and get generally what they want.

So, I ask again, who's paying EWC $400k for a Green 5711? :)

[WatchEater666]

I don't think there's a way to get one new unless you have serious spend with AP. Seems to require ~7 figures in spend as even a few close friends with $200k - $400k in spend can't get one.

If you think about it, these coveted pieces that Patek, AP and now Lange have are essentially discounts for their best customers/a loyalty program. That's what I was told by a senior in marketing @ Hermes btw.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

The average customer of TPG is not benefitting from the cheap money that you are referring to.

The cheap money tends to go to Corporations and wealthy investors. Some of us are here on TRF, yes, it's true. But most of those people are not buying from TPG and most greys. Most of those people already have established relationships with ADs and Boutiques, and get generally what they want.

So, I ask again, who's paying EWC $400k for a Green 5711? :)

TRF is probably .00001 of the people interested in watches. So I don’t think the behaviors of this group is representative of an industry.

I would concede the point that many people on here likely aren’t hugely active in the secondary market. But I bet there are quite a few that have relationships, and recognize when it makes sense to go gray.

And the person dropping $400k on any Nautilus likely doesn’t know a damn thing about watches and wouldn’t waste their time on here, or they’re much more concerned about making money or running a business and won’t feel it necessary to justify how they spend their money to us

[benlee]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

So, I ask again, who's paying EWC $400k for a Green 5711? :)

If the buyer is a billionaire, 400k is chump change. The last time I saw the green 5711 on IG is worn by the sultan of Brunei.

[fullofboats]

I purchased a 15467OR from AP House in early 2020 after a few months wait with no prior purchase history from AP directly. My previous APs were from an AD. I was lucky as back then it was very much a forgotten reference, it was just before the insane price appreciation of ROs, and maybe COVID put off some buyers.

I don't think it's possible to buy an openworked from AP anymore as a new customer. It's too late to start a relationship unless you're willing to drop several hundred thousand, if not a million, on Codes, etc. I'd go grey if it's the only AP you want.

[AshAP]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

The average customer of TPG is not benefitting from the cheap money that you are referring to.

The cheap money tends to go to Corporations and wealthy investors. Some of us are here on TRF, yes, it's true. But most of those people are not buying from TPG and most greys. Most of those people already have established relationships with ADs and Boutiques, and get generally what they want.

So, I ask again, who's paying EWC $400k for a Green 5711? :)

Footballers and rappers, fact. Well actually it’s their agents.


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[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by AshAP

Footballers and rappers, fact. Well actually it’s their agents.

That's fair.

Dumb money.

[Kittayos]

I bought a black concept last December from boutique and received a 15407or early this year together with one more sport watch. I had only spent roughly $150k USD prior to that.

Then I go on and spend gradually and now the number has reached $1.5 Million USD. All I can say is it’s like dealing business. You negotiate for what you want. If you don’t get what you want, you either come up with a new solution or kindly ask SA to figure it out for you. It’s a game. Relationship is one thing but spending wisely is more crucial IMO.

15407st is selling new for roughly at 180-190k and 15407or at around 250k nowadays. There has got to be a solid reason why you are granted either one of the pieces at retail.

If I were you, I would still go the boutique route. 37mm is possible with some considerable spending. Buying code and offshore is still difficult given a shortage in production.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

I go on and spend gradually and now the number has reached $1.5 Million USD....spending wisely...

most of the planet's population would think that insane, rather than wise.

I however would be curious to see what $1.5M has bought at AP

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

Then I go on and spend gradually and now the number has reached $1.5 Million USD. All I can say is it’s like dealing business. You negotiate for what you want. If you don’t get what you want, you either come up with a new solution or kindly ask SA to figure it out for you. It’s a game. Relationship is one thing but spending wisely is more crucial IMO.

Lol!!! Wise??!!

THIS is why it’s futile in today’s market to play AD games. Many people have somehow conditioned themselves into thinking this makes sense.

I’m not at all judging a person that does this because to each their own. Bottom line is if they wanted those watches along the way and they have the ability to make that type of spend, I tip my cap. A vast majority of people do not.

But emotions and “thrills” aside, it makes ZERO sense to chase hot models at AP unless you absolutely have a rock solid relationship with your AD and they will go to bat for you. If you’re wondering if they will, you already lost. Go gray and do not fall into this trap.

[m3jasper]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

I bought a black concept last December from boutique and received a 15407or early this year together with one more sport watch. I had only spent roughly $150k USD prior to that.

Then I go on and spend gradually and now the number has reached $1.5 Million USD. All I can say is it’s like dealing business. You negotiate for what you want. If you don’t get what you want, you either come up with a new solution or kindly ask SA to figure it out for you. It’s a game. Relationship is one thing but spending wisely is more crucial IMO.

15407st is selling new for roughly at 180-190k and 15407or at around 250k nowadays. There has got to be a solid reason why you are granted either one of the pieces at retail.

If I were you, I would still go the boutique route. 37mm is possible with some considerable spending. Buying code and offshore is still difficult given a shortage in production.

You’ve spent $1.5M at a boutique or AP House?

I’m surprised they could even allocate $1.5M worth of watches to a single person in just 12 months, when most people have a list of pieces they want and only have gotten one or two.

[maciej]

Originally Posted by m3jasper

You’ve spent $1.5M at a boutique or AP House?

I’m surprised they could even allocate $1.5M worth of watches to a single person in just 12 months, when most people have a list of pieces they want and only have gotten one or two.

He bought every Code they had…

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by maciej

He bought every Code they had…

The US Code shortage explained! If you see an executive team walking around BKK, now you know who got them the watches.

But seriously, I’m actually with Kittayos on this one. Both in terms of this being the best strategy if you are in Asia and not from the Conkers clan, and also this sentiment that there’s this huge trough to get through in spend before anything good again after the first few pieces.

And because that’s the name of the game now as Chiscott points out, everyone really has to decide if you want to spend through that trough to compete.

[Kittayos]

Spending a million is really a typical thing and I don’t consider myself as a VIP at all. One of my close friends paid 1 million dollar alone for one single AP piece, another one paid $750k for one piece as well. I’m just a regular customer.

For me, 2 concepts, one code skeleton wg limited 50, offshore 26622ti…etc. These 4 pieces will cost a million dollar easily. And if I’m being a commercial guy, I can sell all the hot reference watches and end up making a huge sum of money. In reality, it won’t happen. I might sell some after a couple of years when I get bored but not right after walking out of the boutique. That’s not me. So it’s not entirely a trap as mentioned. I’m still thankful AP for allocating me many high demand pieces anyway.

For those who only want to get just one or two specific pieces, go grey might be a good idea if you don’t care about building a relationship and go through endless conversation plus headache. Only problem is paying x2 x3 the retail price.

[maciej]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

Spending a million is really a typical thing and I don’t consider myself as a VIP at all. One of my close friends paid 1 million dollar alone for one single AP piece, another one paid $750k for one piece as well. I’m just a regular customer.

For me, 2 concepts, one code skeleton wg limited 50, offshore 26622ti…etc. These 4 pieces will cost a million dollar easily. And if I’m being a commercial guy, I can sell all the hot reference watches and end up making a huge sum of money. In reality, it won’t happen. I might sell some after a couple of years when I get bored but not right after walking out of the boutique. That’s not me. So it’s not entirely a trap as mentioned. I’m still thankful AP for allocating me many high demand pieces anyway.

For those who only want to get just one or two specific pieces, go grey might be a good idea if you don’t care about building a relationship and go through endless conversation plus headache. Only problem is paying x2 x3 the retail price.

So... You didn't spend $1.5M as you claimed, albeit it's roughly $950k. Not to mention that two of the pieces you'd break even on when flipping (the Concepts), you'd probably get half of what you paid on the openwork Code, and that'd be potentially slightly offset by the Offshore. Not to mention laying out that money for an unspecified time until you can get the piece you really want.

[maciej]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

Spending a million is really a typical thing and I don’t consider myself as a VIP at all. One of my close friends paid 1 million dollar alone for one single AP piece, another one paid $750k for one piece as well. I’m just a regular customer.

For me, 2 concepts, one code skeleton wg limited 50, offshore 26622ti…etc. These 4 pieces will cost a million dollar easily. And if I’m being a commercial guy, I can sell all the hot reference watches and end up making a huge sum of money. In reality, it won’t happen. I might sell some after a couple of years when I get bored but not right after walking out of the boutique. That’s not me. So it’s not entirely a trap as mentioned. I’m still thankful AP for allocating me many high demand pieces anyway.

For those who only want to get just one or two specific pieces, go grey might be a good idea if you don’t care about building a relationship and go through endless conversation plus headache. Only problem is paying x2 x3 the retail price.

Also, it seems like the story is a bit inconsistent or you're speaking to other people's purchases that you're familiar with. You haven't mentioned your first Code that you purchased to allegedly get the Jumbo from September '20.

Originally Posted by Kittayos

I got 15202st for my time only code purchase. I was brave enough to be the very first customer in my AD to buy it before seeing the actual watch. Picked a 2-tone black dial. A friend of mine also scored the same. After that, no more. You need at least a chrono Code in order to be considered. I bought my Code last month and 15202 came a few weeks later. Super fast.

Bundling seems like a typical practice nowadays.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...8&postcount=53