Interesting Article by Ariel Adams

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by ChugachEagle

You folks are WAY too focused on aftermarket pricing. Buy what you love and wear them.

Agree that "investment" value does not a watch you love make. But some people do have price constraints. Myself included.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Cauhauna

I’m one of them. I’m down 20k or so I guess.

I’ve been enjoying and wearing, which was why I bought it.
I have certainly “lost” on paper a lot more than 20k in equities. Such is life - keep on buying!

I can certainly understand the folks who only buy AD, I’m just not one of them.

Cheers and no regrets

I think you knew that when you spent $50K on the watch that might be high but you are enjoying it and it puts a smile on your face. Personally, I would not dwell on the numbers, it is water under the bridge. Wear your watches in good health.

[giskard]

Article seems to send some mixed signals.

Mega retailers will continue to manipulate the market…
Mega retailers will liquidate and that will wreck everything…

Which is it?

[watchwatcher]

Well, if the TRF mantra of "watches are not investments" is true...why does it seem to matter so much if someone pays over retail for a watch?

I mean, really. Let's pick a side. If watches are truly not investments, can't we also stop talking about how much we should pay for them?

[garyk]

I can remember SS Daytonas selling for a couple of thousand dollars over retail as far back as the 80s. The used ones never sold for less than retail. It was always rumored the ADs had some in the safe too. I actually believe that!

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

A 22% fall in 6 months is not insignificant but it's not a crash. We are back to February 2022 prices, before the crazy spike. I'll see it as a crash the day watches on the secondary market trade below retail and hyped watches are available at ADs. My opinion is based on the fact I don't gamble with watches and don't buy them over retail, they're not an asset class to me.

For those who bought them at the peak as an investment, then of course they're at - 22% on their portfolio, but hey they knew what they were doing, right? Potential high returns go hand in hand with high risk in the short term. On a positive note, if you look at the long term trend, watch prices go up, so these investors will be fine (recoup their losses), eventually. Maybe that'll make them realise that watches are meant to be worn.

Just FYI - here's a cut and pasted snippet differentiating corrections vs crashes:
source: https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.c...ns-and-crashes If this were any other asset class then it indeed would be considered a crash. I have no pony in this race, as mine were AD purchased. Carry on!

"Market Corrections Versus Crashes

Before we start, there’s something you should know: any time the market declines, media and news outlets jump on the opportunity for a click-worthy story.

Now, this “story” doesn’t always make it easier to understand exactly what is happening. Because people use these phrases so often (and sometimes interchangeably), let’s make sure we know the difference between a market crash and a market correction.

Correction—There isn’t a standardized definition, but the commonly accepted definition of a correction is a drop of more than 10% but less than 20%.

Crash—A decline of 20% or more.

People often refer to a decline of less than 10% as a dip or pullback, and the difference comes down to a matter of degree.

So when you’re wondering what’s happening to the market, just be sure to ask,

How deep is the decline?

Your answer will help point you in the right direction!"

[brandrea]

I admit, I skimmed the article to the end …. Friends don’t let friends buy over retail

[bluestreak]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

Well, if the TRF mantra of "watches are not investments" is true...why does it seem to matter so much if someone pays over retail for a watch?

I mean, really. Let's pick a side. If watches are truly not investments, can't we also stop talking about how much we should pay for them?

Caring about acquisition price does not mean you think of watches as investments. It makes you a rational consumer.

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by Mendota

Just FYI - here's a cut and pasted snippet differentiating corrections vs crashes:

source: https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.c...ns-and-crashes If this were any other asset class then it indeed would be considered a crash. I have no pony in this race, as mine were AD purchased. Carry on!



"Market Corrections Versus Crashes



Before we start, there’s something you should know: any time the market declines, media and news outlets jump on the opportunity for a click-worthy story.



Now, this “story” doesn’t always make it easier to understand exactly what is happening. Because people use these phrases so often (and sometimes interchangeably), let’s make sure we know the difference between a market crash and a market correction.



Correction—There isn’t a standardized definition, but the commonly accepted definition of a correction is a drop of more than 10% but less than 20%.



Crash—A decline of 20% or more.



People often refer to a decline of less than 10% as a dip or pullback, and the difference comes down to a matter of degree.



So when you’re wondering what’s happening to the market, just be sure to ask,



How deep is the decline?



Your answer will help point you in the right direction!"

A stock-market crash would normally involve a double digit fall in a short period of time, like 3 days. We haven't seen that.

I'm between +10 and + 15% year on year on my Rolex watches, depending on the model, down roughly 10% since peak, bearing in mind they're not the hyped models (YM, SD43, TT Sub41).

[csaltphoto]

The out of production models (desirable ones at least) are holding up better than in-production models. PP/AP will probably hold up (at least relative to retail) due to relatively low production numbers. But the Daytona madness was unsustainable, especially when you saw pictures of literally piles of them stacked up in plastic wrappers at some dealers. They are still sitting at double retail though.

[Mystro]

Forget about the money and enjoy. As far as the watch blog, it’s Monday morning quarterback talk. The issue is when his advise and standards of living still won’t get many hot watch models now or ever so to follow his advise would be: forget the hard to get model you really want, compromise and buy a easily obtainable watch you don’t want and pretend your happy.

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by teck21

I enjoy charts very much, where did you get these very interesting ones from?

The same place (https://watchcharts.com/) the article pulled the "dramatic" chart showing the "freefall" prices, I just selected 1 year and the 3 year charts instead of the 6 months to emphasize that prices are still very inflated.

[Cauhauna]

Originally Posted by BillA

I think you knew that when you spent $50K on the watch that might be high but you are enjoying it and it puts a smile on your face. Personally, I would not dwell on the numbers, it is water under the bridge. Wear your watches in good health.

absolutely. in fact, when I bought it, I actually called in my post "if this watch goes to 30k, I don't care"

Too bad I was right on that one


every day with it has been worth every penny. to many more!

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Forget about the money and enjoy. As far as the watch blog, it’s Monday morning quarterback talk. The issue is when his advise and standards of living still won’t get many hot watch models now or ever so to follow his advise would be: forget the hard to get model you really want, compromise and buy a easily obtainable watch you don’t want and pretend your happy.

Good point on second best Mystro. Why would someone spend serious money on a watch they do not truly want? Why would I buy an Omega, if I want a Rolex? Or visa versa?

[dannyboy123]

Originally Posted by Wee-Willie

I bought my YG Day Date from DavidSW in January....because I loved the watch & wanted it NOW. I'm 67 years old & didn't want to wait up to a year to get it. Just as with my 2 previous Rolex ( both from ADs), I wanted the watch & have no intention to sell it, esp as an investment. I plan to wear it forever & wanted forever to start immediately.

Perfect strategy. I'm 53 and am becoming aware how fast timeis ticking by.

[Harvey_D]

I am confused about who he is referring to when he says "mega-clearing houses" are these entities that amalgamate many sellers into one space like Chrono24 or is he referring to private organizations "investing"? Or something else that I am not aware of?

Adding to this concern is the fact that a relatively small number of entities around the world hold huge numbers of unsold and pre-owned watches. These inventories are huge financial liabilities, and if just one of those firms decides to exit the market and dump their inventory, it could have a very negative effect on watch prices, overall. This is another reason I have been so skeptical of mega-clearing houses that have gobbled up huge amounts of wristwatch inventory over the last several years.

[MJ EXPLORER]

Well thought out article by Ariel. He’s exactly right. Buy the watch or watches you like and enjoy them. If you move on from one and make a few bucks great. Historically I’ve lost a few bucks on most watches I’ve sold. Small price to pay for the years of enjoyment I got out of them.

I’m a Rolex guy and love them, but I’ve definitely shifted to other brands. It’s no fun going to a Rolex boutique these days. I picked up a Speedy Pro a few months back and absolutely love it. I got a small discount on an already reasonably priced watch.

The sales associate I’ve worked with texts me from time to time and sends cards a couple times per year. It’s nice to be appreciated. It’s also nice popping in and trying on actual watches (not display models).

I’m popping in tomorrow and will likely pick up a Planet Ocean. I’d love to add an Air-King or an Explorer II, but I can wait. In the meantime I’ll enjoy my new Omegas.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by bluestreak

Caring about acquisition price does not mean you think of watches as investments. It makes you a rational consumer.

Oh, I care about acquisition price. I think most of us do. I mean, who doesn't want the best deal they can get on anything they purchase these days, right? But...we left acquisition price behind a looooong time ago. Our focus (and I don't use that word lightly) is squarely now on the market value of our watch(es), and that's absolutely an investment discussion. Been a few posts about that here, wouldn't you agree?

But, hey, a certain amount of that is understandable as well, when one is spending large amounts of cash for anything these days. To my point, however, the author writes, "Friends don't let friends pay over retail." Well, if we truly are not investment-centered, what possible difference does it make where one gets his watch? I truly don't get that point.

Or, how about this little gem, as Mystro so eloquently paraphrased for us: "Forget about the hard to get models and get what you won't be happy with." That's not only investment strategy, but bad investment strategy at that. Who here thinks that is going to work out for any of us?

Don't get me wrong. I don't judge. My personal belief is that nothing sucks the joy out of this hobby more than prolonged discussion about investments. And, on a forum where the prevailing WIS-dom is, "watches are not investments," that doesn't seem like it would even be point of contention, does it?

[MJ EXPLORER]

Originally Posted by BillA

I think you knew that when you spent $50K on the watch that might be high but you are enjoying it and it puts a smile on your face. Personally, I would not dwell on the numbers, it is water under the bridge. Wear your watches in good health.

Or as Cosmo Kramer says, "it's all water near a bridge."

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Dhiren

Interesting read …….

https://www.ablogtowatch.com/ariels-...ices-are-down/


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

One of the better pieces on the subject. Yes, prices are correcting in the secondary market. I'm waiting for the fire sale when they all hit the exits at once and desperately try to raise liquidity.

I can do this because i have three Rolexes and am fine if I never buy another, but happily will if circumstances are right.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Good point on second best Mystro. Why would someone spend serious money on a watch they do not truly want? Why would I buy an Omega, if I want a Rolex? Or visa versa?

We see it all the time on the forum way before the madness even hit. As soon as someone compromised and didn’t pony up the $ and buy the watch they really wanted, they were back here 6 months later taking a beating on the resale of “X brand” watch and buying the Rolex which ended up costing them a lot of money and aggravation in the end.
Generally speaking, compromising in this hobby is a huge mistake. Even if you over pay for your dream model, it won’t matter because you won’t ever want to sell it and you will be happy and content. The only regret you are gonna have in the watch hobby is not getting what you really want and cost be damned to make it happen.

[amh]

Originally Posted by Mystro

We see it all the time on the forum way before the madness even hit. As soon as someone compromised and didn’t pony up the $ and buy the watch they really wanted, they were back here 6 months later taking a beating on the resale of “X brand” watch and buying the Rolex which ended up costing them a lot of money and aggravation in the end.
Generally speaking, compromising in this hobby is a huge mistake. Even if you over pay for your dream model, it won’t matter because you won’t ever want to sell it and you will be happy and content. The only regret you are gonna have in the watch hobby is not getting what you really want and cost be damned to make it happen.

So true. Your post should be a sticky

[joa]

Originally Posted by amh

So true. Your post should be a sticky

exactly! i get slowly tired of people preaching that Rolex is just mass produced garbage etc. etc. - and yet, they sign up on this very message board, post thousands of messages, all just because of some supposedly meaningless, easily interchangeable consumer goods...

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Generally speaking, compromising in this hobby is a huge mistake.

SPOT ON. Something I learned towards the 2nd half lets say of my collecting journey but this is something that is so so true. Well Said.

[Guppydriver]

Originally Posted by Dirt

Agreed

Though I'm a little peeved about a review of a watch that I've had my eye on for quite a while where SJX had some criticism of it based upon observations they've made through macro photography of the dial hardware.
In their pics it all seemed to jump out at you with how good their pics were and the angles the pics were taken. When viewed with normal eyesight it is utterly impossible to see what they're going on about and I highly doubt it would be possible to even see the issues viewing the dial hardware through a loupe, even if one was specifically looking for it.

In summary, SJX did the watch and by extention the manufacturer a serious disservice. They were the only reviewers that picked up on it out of all reviewers that have gone before and it was based on their outstanding macros.
Despite the fact the watch is generally recognised as being overpriced at full retail, I'm still going to pick one up at one of the dealers(after I've negotiated a reasonable discount) as it's quite a stunning piece in the flesh.
When all aspects of their observations are taken into full consideration, their comments were way out of line and unreasonably critical even if they were generally pitched as observations

I'm always looking for new recommended new content to read. SJX is new to me. A quick google search reveals a watchesbysjx.com. Is that an individual or a conglomerate of editors? I agree that the big boys have turned to marketers and advertisers as most of the stuff they review is sold in their online stores. Doesn't LVHM own a huge chunk of Hodinkee??

Also...you're killing me @thumnsup What watch did you think was not done due justice by SJX?

[Kinnakeet]

Either way, it wouldn’t make me very happy to have spent $48000 on a steel Daytona a few months ago knowing today it would be worth a lot less.

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

This is perhaps the most coherent statement that I have read in the watch literature in quite a while, although admittedly, I don't read that much these days.

"There are so many good watches out there that need a good home that you never, ever need to spend over retail price to get something nice on your wrist."--Ariel Adams

This!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[IR201]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

Oh, I care about acquisition price. I think most of us do. I mean, who doesn't want the best deal they can get on anything they purchase these days, right? But...we left acquisition price behind a looooong time ago. Our focus (and I don't use that word lightly) is squarely now on the market value of our watch(es), and that's absolutely an investment discussion. Been a few posts about that here, wouldn't you agree?

But, hey, a certain amount of that is understandable as well, when one is spending large amounts of cash for anything these days. To my point, however, the author writes, "Friends don't let friends pay over retail." Well, if we truly are not investment-centered, what possible difference does it make where one gets his watch? I truly don't get that point.

Or, how about this little gem, as Mystro so eloquently paraphrased for us: "Forget about the hard to get models and get what you won't be happy with." That's not only investment strategy, but bad investment strategy at that. Who here thinks that is going to work out for any of us?

Don't get me wrong. I don't judge. My personal belief is that nothing sucks the joy out of this hobby more than prolonged discussion about investments. And, on a forum where the prevailing WIS-dom is, "watches are not investments," that doesn't seem like it would even be point of contention, does it?

Agree with your points

For me I care about value retention because I like to trade and try new things

The idea that caring about value would take away a watch lover card is silly to me

In my case, attention to that has allowed a sustainable hobby


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by Guppydriver

Also...you're killing me @thumnsup What watch did you think was not done due justice by SJX?

My apologies, but I'd rather not reveal that if you don't mind.
After all, I wouldn't want to draw any further attention to it in the broader domain. I'm eternally conscious of the legendary Walt Odette review of a certain Rolex movement that seemed to cast a rather long shadow across the watch interweb way back in the day

My post about the Sjx article reflects how I think things can be blown way out of proportion through ignorance, just because someone has the tools at their disposal to run a hyper critical eye over something and put their revelations out there and focusing(no pun intended) on it without the fullest understanding of what they're dealing with or looking at.
Taken at face value, the watch is still a stunner and unless one goes delving deep into the realms of macro photography the issue will never ever be apparent to anybody.

[Guppydriver]

Originally Posted by Dirt

My apologies, but I'd rather not reveal that if you don't mind.
After all, I wouldn't want to draw any further attention to it in the broader domain. I'm eternally conscious of the legendary Walt Odette review of a certain Rolex movement that seemed to cast a rather long shadow across the watch interweb way back in the day

My post about the Sjx article reflects how I think things can be blown way out of proportion through ignorance, just because someone has the tools at their disposal to run a hyper critical eye over something and put their revelations out there and focusing(no pun intended) on it without the fullest understanding of what they're dealing with or looking at.
Taken at face value, the watch is still a stunner and unless one goes delving deep into the realms of macro photography the issue will never ever be apparent to anybody.

No apologies needed. Respect. I appreciate your take.