Has Rolex reached its peak?

[lady yachtmaster]

Maybe Rolex is trying to pull away price wise so when/if they bring Tudor back to the United States there will absolutely be a true distinction between the two??

[hatidua]

Originally Posted by Cuts33

Is the SubC for example a great and timeless watch? Absolutely.

Is it worth $10K which is where it is headed? The answer to many on this forum is yes. I would venture to guess that the answer to many not lurking around here is a resounding no.

Hmmm, a SubC or a 1680? -not a very difficult decision to my way of thinking (which admittedly might be flawed ).

[chronoman]

I understand the real annual total Rolex mintage number is a big secret. But while we're speculating, let's just imagine:
1,000,000 watches a year.
Divided by 360 days = 2777.
Divided by 24 hours = 115.75.
Divided by 60 minutes is almost 2 watches a minute for every minute of the day, somewhere on Earth somebody lays down money for a Rolex.
Peaked or not? And what's a few thousand watches more or less?
In the time it takes to read this, somebody has bought another Rolex.

[HERITAGE82]

Originally Posted by chronoman

I understand the real annual total Rolex mintage number is a big secret. But while we're speculating, let's just imagine:
1,000,000 watches a year.
Divided by 360 days = 2777.
Divided by 24 hours = 115.75.
Divided by 60 minutes is almost 2 watches a minute for every minute of the day, somewhere on Earth somebody lays down money for a Rolex.
Peaked or not? And what's a few thousand watches more or less?
In the time it takes to read this, somebody has bought another Rolex.

AND ANOTHER.....

[le_baroudeur]

Logical engineery: rolex is unbeatable here: 904l which will not rust after 25years of salty water (316l will), extreme waterproofness, extreme lisibility, precision of machining i.e. tight mecanism tolerances, over-the-norm durability. They are cheap compared to patek, when the two brands provide everyday steel watches.
For me the hand finish is useless (and because with patek only the finishing is hand made): i need a well designed, well engineered, reliable, aesthetical and durable watch: rolex is n#1 here.

[chicfarmer1]

Originally Posted by rolepam312

rather the limitation of Rolex .......

It doesn't make much sense to compare a $9K Rolex and a $75K Patek, so, within the same price point, it would be interesting to know how Rolex is doing vis-a-vis its direct competitors. My guess is, very well, and increasingly well, given the surge in consumption in Asia, Brazil, etc.

To look only at the US market is myopic, of course.

[dddrees]

Originally Posted by chronoman

I understand the real annual total Rolex mintage number is a big secret. But while we're speculating, let's just imagine:
1,000,000 watches a year.
Divided by 360 days = 2777.
Divided by 24 hours = 115.75.
Divided by 60 minutes is almost 2 watches a minute for every minute of the day, somewhere on Earth somebody lays down money for a Rolex.
Peaked or not? And what's a few thousand watches more or less?
In the time it takes to read this, somebody has bought another Rolex.

The total might be a secret because they are privately owned, but you sure can get a real good idea based on the results of how many watches they send to COSC on a yearly basis.

Originally Posted by azguy

I found this interesting, it came from my friends over at the Breitlingsource

Yearly COSC certifications

Rolex

2000 635,209
2001 762,175
2002 814,720
2004 628,556
2005 667,080
2006 710,752
2007 728,256
2008 769,850
2009 607,512
2010 611,424

Breitling

2000 148,380
2001 207,879
2002 131,815
2004 135,423
2005 180,351
2006 182,223
2007 222,650
2008 234,021
2009 108,220
2010 122,649

Omega

2000 146,144
2001 142,825
2002 165,543
2004 226,796
2005 220,244
2006 257,187
2007 341,161
2008 377,514
2009 187,558
2010 342,798

[aleiberman]

Rolex is a business.

[HL65]

Very short answer: No

[snowpea]

The Chinese and Asian people have always known and been in love with the prestige with the Rolex brand, but before could not afford it. So I don't think it takes much marketing from Rolex for the people there to want one.

[Nowayman1]

It's quite amazing how much China has developed in recent years. Rolls Royce had their best ever year in 2011 as China have spanked the USA off the top spot for vehicle sales, amazing. I work around 3 months of the year in China and the development there over the years is amazing!!!!

[herbie911]

Yes, it is getting harder for a middle class citizen from Western countries to buy a Rolex due to price rises. They are aiming for millionaires but the price rise for AP, VC and PP is just as frequent and steep. They are targetting billionaires!

[mrbill2mrbill2]

Originally Posted by herbie911

Yes, it is getting harder for a middle class citizen from Western countries to buy a Rolex due to price rises. They are aiming for millionaires but the price rise for AP, VC and PP is just as frequent and steep. They are targetting billionaires!

I don't agree that Rolex is targeting millionaires. Almost any disciplined person can save for one.

[chronoman]

Originally Posted by dddrees

Yearly COSC certifications

Rolex

2000 635,209
2001 762,175
2002 814,720
2004 628,556
2005 667,080
2006 710,752
2007 728,256
2008 769,850
2009 607,512
2010 611,424

Wow. Thanks dddrees & azguy!

So for 611,000 annually, 69.74 watches/hour sold. Or 1.16 watches a minute.
Adimttedly over simplistic. From what i read this morning here, a large percentage slips into Grey Market. So what do we know?
What was the question again?

[Perdu]

Originally Posted by Fifth Ave Rolex Man

ROLEX = #1 brand.

All the time there are millions people who believe this they can charge what they want. Shame, but there it is.

[rodrob59]

My wife is a retailer of luxury good. They had a great year for Christmas 2010 but 3011 was up 65%. I don't see Rolex going anywhere but up at ever steepening rates. BTW Mercedes, which I consider the Rolex of cars, also had their best year in US sales.

[zeuloa]

Originally Posted by rolepam312

I love my 16610 and rolex in general, however due to their marketing and rebranding efforts, (minimizing AD's role, consistent price increases, shifting their supply to Asia, etc) its understandable that they are more image conscious with their brand being aaociated with more high ended, in the line of other haute horological manufacturers...
However, IMHO, they will never be in the likes with PP, AP, VC, JLC, etc...nor do I think they are striving to be as such...
But their prices are inching closer to the likes.. I think they may have reached their peak and their targeted demographics...it's conceivable that as the price increases other brands that was once unattainable slowly becomes attainable...and given the choices for similar price, I personally would buy outside of rolex, which I already have and will continue to do so.....will you? Or is Rolex so desirable that despite the price, will you continue to buy it when you have other options?
I know this is a rolex forum and the opinion will be biased, but I noticed we all own other timepieces as well...its not taking away anything about quality, reliability, of a rolex, rather the limitation of Rolex .......
Thanks for your inputs..

Taylor

I think you make an interesting point...

In the last 2 decade or so the taste for high end watches has increased tremendously. Other brands are much better known, and available than in the past to say a consumer looking for a $10k to $15k watch. Some of these competitors with more interesting complications than Rolex movements.

To me it seems Rolex has been kind of riding the wave they built for the last 3 or 4 decades; with a great quality product but a bit less innovation than some of their competition. Once upon a time Rolex ventured into more complicated movements before Hans Wilsdorf passed, and I think this is where they will go in the future. It will probably be a slow venture into this waters, but with great products as they always do!

[Fernandohk]

No peaking here but will go from strength to strength IMO. With its solid brand equity and history nothing comes close in its wide appeal. Attainable by the masses and desirable even for high end collectors, it's the perfect model for any business.

[Kanger]

I hope not. I love Rolex.

[collegeparkrolex]

Nope

[Feras]

No, if it reached then people would've shifted to other brands :)

[SS Oyster]

I can tell you this, which you can relate to this topic however you want.

I got rid of my two fine watches (one a Sub LVc, one a GO) to obtain what I thought was the ultimate diver type watch ... the Blancpain Fifty Fathoms.

While superlative in design, finish, and possibly durability, I couldn't keep it as my "only watch" and here's why:
- Sail cloth strap (worried about getting it wet & how long it would last)
- Nearly $3k for a SS bracelet
- Had to take it off to shower, sleep, do anything dirty, etc.
- Didn't sit on my wrist as well as my Subs, ExpIIs

Conversely, I went back to two Rolex watches (LVc and 42mm Exp II) for the following reasons:
- Can purchase two to five (or more) Rolex sport watches for the same price as one of the others
- Do anything and EVERYTHING in my Rolex watches (wear one 24/7/365)
- Golf, shower, yard work, ... rain, sleet, snow, ...
- Dress them up, dress them down, wear with nearly anything from running shorts to Tuxedo
- Buying a Rolex is like buying a known growth commodity and if the world goes to hell for you, you can nearly always cash out within days without taking a loss.

Bottom line:
- I had to take a HUGE haircut (on the order of $2.5-3K) even on a used (Aug '11) Fifty Fathoms after only a few weeks of owning one ... and felt lucky to sell it to get back to Rolex watches
- By comparison, I once sold an Explorer II at a (small) profit within 45 mins of advertising it.
- Most importantly, I LOVE THEM!!!

[general]

Just ask yourself which other brand of watch could you sell after using it for many years and recoup most if not all of your money?

[jenniferjanef]

I feel even a tad shameful to say that some of my friends here in Asia finds rolex too cheap, the only rolex they own are dd2 or full diamond paved dd.. They constantly craving for OTT rolex, despite they own lots of other watches such as ap, pp, even pp is not exotic enough nowadays, thus richard mille and mb&f and other brands i dont even know how to spell fill up the gap, however, on working days you will still see them wearing their dd dd2.. Why they still wearing their rolex? Well you see, no other brand here in asia is more instantly recognizable by the general public here in Asia, hence, rolex is till The King here.. Btw I love my rolexssss, I think it is over engineered and time tested product that will never goes out of date/fashion. I love it as a watch, as a tool and love the fact that the brand is a legend in it's own right. .. James

[Fiery]

Originally Posted by general

Just ask yourself which other brand of watch could you sell after using it for many years and recoup most if not all of your money?

With some Patek (e.g. 5711/1A) and AP (e.g. Royal Oak 15300ST) you can do that. Of course Rolex have the most watches in its lineup that keep their value over time.

[slimboyinhk]

IMO, universally recognized brands that are prestige and not easily attainable are the brands that will flourish. So quite contrary, perhaps the more expensive Rolex is then the more prestige and desirable it will become, so long as innovation or something keeps people coming back for more. Patek's and the likes are known in very elite circles and does not have the broad appeal for the upper middle-class.