Swiss Watch Exports Fall Dramatically

[ChronoSloth]

Just passing along data, not intended to begin an argument if new technology is better, more desirable or anything else.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/...e-watch-launch

Our captive audience on this forum is of a certain mindset that's unlikely to change, but it is quite interesting to read that exports, particularly to Hong Kong where a prior thread said is one of the most densely populated Rolex areas of the world, has dropped 40%. Now, you can't blame a stronger CHF for this as the franc has weakened steadily since January when the Swiss National Bank allowed appreciation to accelerate. In fact, USD/CHF is back to exactly the same levels as January, though EUR/CHF has only recouped half its January decline.

Personally, I've owned almost every product Apple has made since the Apple II in the early 1980's, all but the Apple Watch. A colleague of mine purchased both a new DateJust and Apple Watch within the past several months. His daily wear is the Apple Watch while the Rolex is for nights out and special occasions. To each his own...

[stil]

China has experienced some rapid economic growth in the last 10+ years. Some of the growth real but some perhaps based on "fake wealth." Isn't China's middle class contracting? If so, wouldn't one would expect sales to slump?

[asleep]

The China driven boom was unsustainable.

The iWatch will have trouble approximating its first release sales bloom.

Absent a watch that isn't tethered to a smartphone, many will still choose more aesthetically pleasing options than the smartphone-extention-on-a-wrist. Like...



I had the iWatch and returned it. Majority of those I encounter have stopped wearing them.

I have a few friends who would have dumped the iWatch had it not been a gift.

From a 12/2014 Credit Suisse...

[Wooddog44]

Originally Posted by Sfocato

Just passing along data, not intended to begin an argument if new technology is better, more desirable or anything else.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/...e-watch-launch

Our captive audience on this forum is of a certain mindset that's unlikely to change, but it is quite interesting to read that exports, particularly to Hong Kong where a prior thread said is one of the most densely populated Rolex areas of the world, has dropped 40%. Now, you can't blame a stronger CHF for this as the franc has weakened steadily since January when the Swiss National Bank allowed appreciation to accelerate. In fact, USD/CHF is back to exactly the same levels as January, though EUR/CHF has only recouped half its January decline.

Personally, I've owned almost every product Apple has made since the Apple II in the early 1980's, all but the Apple Watch. A colleague of mine purchased both a new DateJust and Apple Watch within the past several months. His daily wear is the Apple Watch while the Rolex is for nights out and special occasions. To each his own...

In my opinion there are certain settings in which a gentleman will always wear a "real" timepiece and leave his Apple watch, Fitbit, Polar, Garmin golf watch, etc... at home. In these settings one of the true timepieces of choice, for certain gentlemen, will continue to be a Rolex.

[Maxy]

Damn! Time to sell my Rolex watches!

[Tools]

A bogus attempt to relate the iwatch release (by Apple no less) to the Swiss watch industry..

There is no correlation shown or proven here, just coincidence of the economy.

[DPE]

Just means we will be more special to wear a Rolex. The others will have little batteries and i phones

[silverbullet818]

A timeless timepiece will always trump an iThingy...

In 50 years the Rolex will still work and be servicable. An iThingy if the battery hasn't exploded and ruined the internals will no longer be serviced.

[Old Expat Beast]

Sales of all luxury goods, not just watches, are well down in HK this year.

[jctrolex]

May be this is good news if it's true. Swiss watches may actually stop their obligatory price increase every year and mere mortals like me may be able to buy one.

[MitchSteel]

I'd consider the source of this article bias.

Now everyone, quickly dump their watches for a penny on the dollar and buy Apple........daddy needs a new Murse

[2Redbulls]

I purchased the iWatch after holding out several months. Wore it for several days and now it sits by my bed and I never wear it.

I don't find it easy to use. I don't find the functionality particularly useful. I don't think it's esthetically beautiful. If anyone wants a iWatch cheap let me know.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by 2Redbulls

I purchased the iWatch after holding out several months. Wore it for several days and now it sits by my bed and I never wear it.

I don't find it easy to use. I don't find the functionality particularly useful. I don't think it's esthetically beautiful. If anyone wants a iWatch cheap let me know.

Sold mine in 24 hours. Worthless to me.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by MitchSteel

I'd consider the source of this article bias.



Now everyone, quickly dump their watches for a penny on the dollar and buy Apple........daddy needs a new Murse

The source is Bloomberg not Apple.

[MitchSteel]

Never said the source was Apple.I just think the article lacks.....how should I say this......" Looking at the whole package"

It's interesting to see the rise of horology over the last few years, more people seem to appreciate the art and science behind mechanical watches.....but suddenly,a new trinket comes out and people jump on that? I'm not so sure about that in the grand scheme of things.Could this be the beginning of the new Quartz crisis? I don't see it.

[Tri-Tip]

Originally Posted by asleep

Sorry to get off topic, but the Platona looks INCREDIBLE from that angle!

[ChronoSloth]

I wanted to share the article because I thought it was interesting and provided data I’ll pay closer attention to going forward to see if there’s actually a trend developing or not. Whatever the outcome, it will not deter me from wearing the watches I love. As a matter of fact, I’m trying to disconnect as much as possible from the wired world as I get older and closer to retirement. Being perpetually tethered to a wearable electronic device such as an Apple Watch is not appealing to me.

What struck me was trying to make sense of the Swiss watch export decline in conjunction with the recent record setting sales of vintage pieces at auction. There is definitely a growing interest in watches, whatever form or function they take. If this slip in exports continues, will it make it more difficult for buyers to locate and purchase the watches they desire? Will the increased competition from electronics force the Swiss makers to listen more closely to their customers wants? Does the secondary market get a boost from a potential reduction of new supply?

[el1125]

Originally Posted by Tri-Tip

Sorry to get off topic, but the Platona looks INCREDIBLE from that angle!

IMO, it's incredible from EVERY angle 👍👍

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Sfocato

Now, you can't blame a stronger CHF for this as the franc has weakened steadily since January when the Swiss National Bank allowed appreciation to accelerate. In fact, USD/CHF is back to exactly the same levels as January, though EUR/CHF has only recouped half its January decline.

I can definitely blame a stronger CHF. CHF may be back at parity with USD, but USD itself has appreciated sharply this year against most world currencies, so CHF remains strong on a global basis.

While CHF has weakened throughout the year, it started with an appreciation and spent most of the year getting to parity with the dollar. If we track USD/CHF minus CHF/USD, I think the integral is decently large over the period measured.

Originally Posted by stil

China has experienced some rapid economic growth in the last 10+ years. Some of the growth real but some perhaps based on "fake wealth." Isn't China's middle class contracting? If so, wouldn't one would expect sales to slump?

China has a higher saving rate and less personal borrowing than western countries. Revolving consumer credit is a bit higher than in the US, not in total but as a % of income, but they still have much less financing for cars and homes than does the US. I would say the wealth is not fake.

As has been said, shopping in HK is down this year. Number of mainland visitors is down about 10% even though Chinese foreign travel is up over 10% as a whole. Anti-corruption drive by communist party has also played a role (party has over 80 million members).

[SpaceWanderer]

Originally Posted by jctrolex

May be this is good news if it's true. Swiss watches may actually stop their obligatory price increase every year and mere mortals like me may be able to buy one.

Rolex hasn't raised their US prices in over three years. Hopefully that will continue, for a while at least. I still think a big reason the prices kept going up like crazy for a few years there was to finance all the infrastructure and production upgrades they have put into place. But, we'll see.

[Tools]

In the interest of full disclosure... here is another interesting article.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/app...ers-2015-07-07

[Sarajevo]

We are an Apple house - 2 iPhones, 3 iPads, a MacBook and an iMac. I would never dream of buying an Apple watch to replace my Sea Dweller, IWC Pilot or Seamaster Pro. It would be like replacing my car with a scooter. I might potentially have a scooter and a car, but they are not fungible.

A friend has an Apple Watch and reckons that it is good for anything you need to do within 3 seconds; otherwise your iPhone or other device works better. Perhaps I just lead a very unexciting life but I would rather do things a little more slowly and properly, than focussing on pure speed.

[Rock]

In general. people with excess disposable income will jump on any new electronic trinket regardless of what it is.
There are lots of people in the world with excess disposable income.
No surprises in relation to the sales of iWatches.
The sales of luxury items traditionally fluctuates in different places at different times.
Quality mechanical watches will continue to be seen as desirable acquisitions into the forseeable future.
In view of the GFC trauma that the world has been experiencing, sales would be expected ( similar to the stockmarket) to show significant fluctuatuations over the short term, but to continue to show steady growth over the long-term.

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by Sarajevo

We are an Apple house - 2 iPhones, 3 iPads, a MacBook and an iMac. I would never dream of buying an Apple watch to replace my Sea Dweller, IWC Pilot or Seamaster Pro. It would be like replacing my car with a scooter. I might potentially have a scooter and a car, but they are not fungible.

A friend has an Apple Watch and reckons that it is good for anything you need to do within 3 seconds; otherwise your iPhone or other device works better. Perhaps I just lead a very unexciting life but I would rather do things a little more slowly and properly, than focussing on pure speed.

Great post

[artschool]

Originally Posted by Sarajevo

We are an Apple house - 2 iPhones, 3 iPads, a MacBook and an iMac. I would never dream of buying an Apple watch to replace my Sea Dweller, IWC Pilot or Seamaster Pro. It would be like replacing my car with a scooter. I might potentially have a scooter and a car, but they are not fungible.

A friend has an Apple Watch and reckons that it is good for anything you need to do within 3 seconds; otherwise your iPhone or other device works better. Perhaps I just lead a very unexciting life but I would rather do things a little more slowly and properly, than focussing on pure speed.

we are very similar - 3 iPhones, 2 iPads, 2 apple tv's and 2 macbook pro's.

no apple watches.

[bharat]

You have to also remember that the Apple Watch is an American product and the American media and propaganda machine likes to work in ways that are for the lack of a better word, puzzling at best. I wouldn't give this type of journalism the time of day.

[Sarajevo]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

Great post

Thank you Sir!