Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Fastly sidelined at Oppenheimer on TikTok risk

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360206...on-tiktok-risk

I have no opinion on the stock however it seems to me to be a case of the bad news gets worse and could present a buying opportunity if the stock really gets thrown out.

Of note - Oppenheimer still calls FSLY best in class here.

As I mentioned, leadership mentioned that if TikTok were to go away, they could replace the 12% revenue with other customers fairly quickly. Take that for what it's worth.

I'm long and have bought on the dip, but also took profit yesterday.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Of note - Oppenheimer still calls FSLY best in class here.

As I mentioned, leadership mentioned that if TikTok were to go away, they could replace the 12% revenue with other customers fairly quickly. Take that for what it's worth.

I'm long and have bought on the dip, but also took profit yesterday.

I guess my worry in hearing the CEOs comment was that while I don’t doubt they can make up that 12% in revenue, I do wonder how quickly it could be filled. For instance, enterprise customer count increased 2% in Q2 compared to Q1. About 1/6 of their customers are enterprise customers, so there’s definitely a reliance on securing big deals, which don’t happen every day. Again, this only impacts the short term target, long term there’s not much to worry about.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

I guess my worry in hearing the CEOs comment was that while I don’t doubt they can make up that 12% in revenue, I do wonder how quickly it could be filled. For instance, enterprise customer count increased 2% in Q2 compared to Q1. About 1/6 of their customers are enterprise customers, so there’s definitely a reliance on securing big deals, which don’t happen every day. Again, this only impacts the short term target, long term there’s not much to worry about.

Agree that short-term could cause a bit of pain, but as you said, long-term should be fine.

I do think leadership is strong here and I actually applaud them for bringing up the TikTok issue - there's not just a pump during earnings, unlike other companies that we've seen ( e.g. Nikola).

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Agree that short-term could cause a bit of pain, but as you said, long-term should be fine.

I do think leadership is strong here and I actually applaud them for bringing up the TikTok issue - there's not just a pump during earnings, unlike other companies that we've seen ( e.g. Nikola).

What price are you looking to re-enter at? I think we will see some downward action today and tomorrow but by mid next week it will be back above 100.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bryan13

What price are you looking to re-enter at? I think we will see some downward action today and tomorrow but by mid next week it will be back above 100.

There's a strong base forming at the 87 level. You could monitor through the end of the week, but I've added here.

[logo]

Originally Posted by bryan13

What price are you looking to re-enter at? I think we will see some downward action today and tomorrow but by mid next week it will be back above 100.

I’m looking at them with an assumed P/S ratio of 35. Important to consider YoY revenue growth is huge for these types of companies. Based on their current earnings of about ~300M annually, and removing 12% of that (assuming worst case from TikTok), that pegs their market cap around 9B. So in the 80s I think is actually not bad.... again, assuming a P/S of 35, which I think is ok at their current stage. That said, I think they could potentially dip a bit further as things settle out but who knows.

For what it’s worth, assuming similar revenue growth for NET (which has been the case in the past, but could outperform or underperform in the future), that pegs their market cap around 14B with a P/S of 35. That’s a share price up >12% from where they are trading today...

PS NET earnings are today after the bell.

[logo]

I’ll also mention BTG again. There looks to be a rotation out of gold today causing a minor pull back, but I think this is a great opportunity for anyone looking for a gold play.

They reported record revenue, cash flow and gold production yesterday with minimal debt, a great cash position and doubled their dividend all while maintaining full or optimistic guidance for the year. Seems like a literal gold mine to me.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by logo

I’m looking at them with an assumed P/S ratio of 35. Important to consider YoY revenue growth is huge for these types of companies. Based on their current earnings of about ~300M annually, and removing 12% of that (assuming worst case from TikTok), that pegs their market cap around 9B. So in the 80s I think is actually not bad.... again, assuming a P/S of 35, which I think is ok at their current stage. That said, I think they could potentially dip a bit further as things settle out but who knows.

For what it’s worth, assuming similar revenue growth for NET (which has been the case in the past, but could outperform or underperform in the future), that pegs their market cap around 14B with a P/S of 35. That’s a share price up >12% from where they are trading today...

PS NET earnings are today after the bell.

I put into NET a while back after being prodded to research them a while back by you Logo (so thanks). I'm currently 24% up on NET and holding. I'm in FSLY too - got into that at 68 and should have trimmed last week but held on. Grrr. I'd buy more FSLY at 75.. Both good stocks and interesting companies I've enjoyed researching. Must tip a hat to Jpeezy for prompting me to research FSLY.
My one contribution in terms of tips was Aston Martin a while back - not sure if anyone looked at that but I'm up 31% on that and it's still got a lot of legs left of you can be patient for the new CEO to roll out his strategy.
Great thread this. I log in about 15 times a day!

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I put into NET a while back after being prodded to research them a while back by you Logo (so thanks). I'm currently 24% up on NET and holding. I'm in FSLY too - got into that at 68 and should have trimmed last week but held on. Grrr. I'd buy more FSLY at 75.. Both good stocks and interesting companies I've enjoyed researching. Must tip a hat to Jpeezy for prompting me to research FSLY.
My one contribution in terms of tips was Aston Martin a while back - not sure if anyone looked at that but I'm up 31% on that and it's still got a lot of legs left of you can be patient for the new CEO to roll out his strategy.
Great thread this. I log in about 15 times a day!

Definitely one of the better threads around

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...ted-today.aspx

Have been looking at APPS as another growth vehicle. Knockout earnings on a platform that makes sense, with good price targets post-earnings (albeit not that many). Raised guidance as well.

My hesitation is the monster run-up, but I will be looking to add on a large pullback.

[JParm]

Cloud stocks not doing so well during earnings even after posting beats. DDOG down heavy at nearly 20% today, with NET down over 5%.

I added to DDOG, as it was something that I have owned in the past and do like business. To see it go from $90 back down to $75 was enough for me to buy-in.

Another example of a big run up that is crashing down due to lofty expectations - but that's not saying it can't get back to those levels soon. Again, earnings beat here and an announced acquisition of a complementary company to further their business as well.

[RyanO]

For anyone interested, here's an article outlining why Emergent Biosolutions is undervalued. Dropped a bit for a better entry, and I added a bit to my potition.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436...ks-undervalued

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Cloud stocks not doing so well during earnings even after posting beats. DDOG down heavy at nearly 20% today, with NET down over 5%.

I added to DDOG, as it was something that I have owned in the past and do like business. To see it go from $90 back down to $75 was enough for me to buy-in.

Another example of a big run up that is crashing down due to lofty expectations - but that's not saying it can't get back to those levels soon. Again, earnings beat here and an announced acquisition of a complementary company to further their business as well.

They really aren't reacting well, are they, despite great earnings and guidance.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

They really aren't reacting well, are they, despite great earnings and guidance.

Yes, I think this just shows that the cloud stocks definitely ran too hot.

Was able to get in under $76 and it looks to be hovering above that while the call is going on; looking like the bottom is in.

And add AYX to the list of SaaS stocks getting hammered - now down over 20% as well.

[logo]

After a wild ride initially, NET is up after hours. Incredible earnings call with the CEO and raised guidance - look out Amazon AWS! NET is coming.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Cloud stocks not doing so well during earnings even after posting beats. DDOG down heavy at nearly 20% today, with NET down over 5%.

I added to DDOG, as it was something that I have owned in the past and do like business. To see it go from $90 back down to $75 was enough for me to buy-in.

Another example of a big run up that is crashing down due to lofty expectations - but that's not saying it can't get back to those levels soon. Again, earnings beat here and an announced acquisition of a complementary company to further their business as well.

Since buying into DDOG on the selloff post-earnings a couple hours ago (as mentioned, got in at $76), I'm up 10% in the stock.

These massive overreactions to earnings (which are actually beats) can be prime buying opportunities, as that is when the most downward pressure usually lies.

Tomorrow is another day and we'll see if I made the right decision, but just some food for thought as we continue through earnings with Q2 and into Q3.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by logo

After a wild ride initially, NET is up after hours. Incredible earnings call with the CEO and raised guidance - look out Amazon AWS! NET is coming.

We must being seeing different charts for today from each other.

[scarlet knight]

I am steering clear of the cloud stocks for a bit. Too wild for me.

[logo]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

We must being seeing different charts for today from each other.

After hours dropped ~12% at one point, climbed up to +3% at the time of my post before closing out +0.15%.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by logo

After hours dropped ~12% at one point, climbed up to +3% at the time of my post before closing out +0.15%.

Odd, I'm seeing it as down 2.88%

[beshannon]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360283...over-consensus

July jobs numbers better than expected, futures move higher, and then they promptly turn around

[RyanO]

Added to Fastly at 82.90. Really taking it in the nose. From almost $120 to nearly 80 on a beat and raised guidance. I think the Tik Tok fears are a bit overblown, and the 12% figure is really only 6% that is at risk - and the stock seems to be pricing in that revenue being lost - but it has not.

[beshannon]

UPS continuing to move higher

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360289...e-holiday-rush

Indicator of strong stay at home business traffic and retailers with online business are up as well. I am holding long into the holiday season and my dividend yield on cost is 4.2%

Price target just raised to 153, stock is overbought

[-dustin]

Well my toe-dipping into RKT seems to be going well.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by beshannon

UPS continuing to move higher

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360289...e-holiday-rush

Indicator of strong stay at home business traffic and retailers with online business are up as well. I am holding long into the holiday season and my dividend yield on cost is 4.2%

Price target just raised to 153, stock is overbought

Lots of deliveries. An ingrained way to buy things now.

[blown5.0]

Guys,
I had a quick question about losses. I have a couple of dead stocks. Lost 99% of their value (put very little in to begin with). If I sell, I have to pay a 6.95 commission which is worth more than the value of my position for each of these. Would you just sell it to clear your portfolio up a bit or keep it? My fear is that some random annual fee will hit the stock like they do sometimes. Sorry for the question but thanks. Also is the commission tax deductible?

[aes7.5x55]

As someone who's been in the stock market for all of 1 whole month, I find this conversation very interesting. I don't understand 95% of it yet, but interesting nonetheless!

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by blown5.0

Guys,
I had a quick question about losses. I have a couple of dead stocks. Lost 99% of their value (put very little in to begin with). If I sell, I have to pay a 6.95 commission which is worth more than the value of my position for each of these. Would you just sell it to clear your portfolio up a bit or keep it? My fear is that some random annual fee will hit the stock like they do sometimes. Sorry for the question but thanks. Also is the commission tax deductible?

I don’t think that the commission is tax deductible, but a capital loss usually is. What kind of stocks are you investing in that sustained a 99% loss? Sounds like penny stocks. Please reconsider if you have been buying those kind of stocks. Also note that most of the biggest brokerages no longer charge commissions to buy and sell stocks.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by blown5.0

Guys,
I had a quick question about losses. I have a couple of dead stocks. Lost 99% of their value (put very little in to begin with). If I sell, I have to pay a 6.95 commission which is worth more than the value of my position for each of these. Would you just sell it to clear your portfolio up a bit or keep it? My fear is that some random annual fee will hit the stock like they do sometimes. Sorry for the question but thanks. Also is the commission tax deductible?

Where is your account that you're still paying a $7 commission? If you're trading frequently that adds up, and most of the top brokers in the US have $0 commissions now (TD, Schwab, Fidelity, etc)

[blown5.0]

Thanks guys. There were some penny stocks from years ago my wife bought (less than 100 dollars in each). Not surprised they were worthless. We use Etrade.

[RyanO]

I use ETrade and do not pay commissions, you should contact them regarding updating your fee schedule if you're being charged.