Grey Market Supply Increasing?

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Rolex annual watch production is around 750 - 800 k, https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-accou...nual-turnover/

that is in a year without a Global pandemic, it is a fair assumption to say production would be reduced over the past 12 to 18 months,

this past year production figures are not available yet, so we don't know the exact figure.

So your data I think is compromised,

your further assumption based on exactly what are genuine Chrono 24 listings is another wild guess.

What can be relied upon is the numbers of listings and stock levels at Grey dealers, my own experience is valid and representative of the Rolex supply problem.

In the market for a Rolex Sub from an AD at retail ..............very difficult as always.

Wish to buy from a Grey or ebay no probs Chrono 24 has 487 available

ebay has 191.

The Flippers are winning and Greys are here to stay.

Another one who likes to ignore data.

Rolex production is right around 80K per month.

Rolex shipped 810K units in 2020 — even with close to zero production in March/April. Those figures were published.

You said the majority of pieces seem to be immediately flipped.

There is no possible way 50% (40K units per month) are flipped immediately to secondary channels. It’s more like 5%.

487 new Subs on C24 is nothing. Production is likely over 10K per month.

Again, 11K new/unworn 2020/2021 Rolexes on C24 = 1% of what was produced over that timeframe.

[Bizcut1]

Just purchased a new 18K RG and SS DJ41 with stickers on and the warranty card stamped and dated April 26, 2021. Paid $13,400 to a grey dealer. No tax and insured overnight shipping included. At retail, it would have been over $15K OTD with tax. And who knows who or what I would have had to "do" to get one.

Not all grey deals are created equally. A broad brush doesn't usually paint accurately. Careful research and shopping and then negotiating with knowledge and skill can yield successful results.

Ben

[Lukebennett21]

Originally Posted by Bizcut1

Just purchased a new 18K RG and SS DJ41 with stickers on and the warranty card stamped and dated April 26, 2021. Paid $13,400 to a grey dealer. No tax and insured overnight shipping included. At retail, it would have been over $15K OTD with tax. And who knows who or what I would have had to "do" to get one.

Not all grey deals are created equally. A broad brush doesn't usually paint accurately. Careful research and shopping and then negotiating with knowledge and skill can yield successful results.

Ben

Nice pickup!

[jcdeng]

what I am curious to know is if Rolex increased production of SS sports model or not due to high demand. Or they absolutely ignores the market and keep their production numbers the same.

I feel like they produce way more DJs than the market can digest and forces it onto their ADs. This is what started the ADs selling to greys because that is the only way they can keep the rolex line in their store.

Greys have to buy 10 DJs for every ss sport the AD is willing to sell them for example. And for retailers like you and me, we have to spent such and such amount in order for the AD to sell you 1 ss sport.

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Another one who likes to ignore data.

Rolex production is right around 80K per month.

Rolex shipped 810K units in 2020 — even with close to zero production in March/April. Those figures were published.

You said the majority of pieces seem to be immediately flipped.

There is no possible way 50% (40K units per month) are flipped immediately to secondary channels. It’s more like 5%.

487 new Subs on C24 is nothing. Production is likely over 10K per month.

Again, 11K new/unworn 2020/2021 Rolexes on C24 = 1% of what was produced over that timeframe.

Please get your facts straight.

Rolex monthly production was 67,500 not 80,000

Chrono 24 & eBay uk are just two online places to buy, factor in the Grey's own web sites and other outlets .......... Equals a massive number of New/Unused watches being flipped.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Lukebennett21

I guess I should clarify - I feel like I am seeing more and more pieces from the last 10 years sit on the sites - previous gen Bluesy’s, exp 39’s, Ex 2’s without the upgraded movement, hulks, etc. seems like the market isn’t just hoovering every single piece that is thrown up.

Maybe it’s just the result of refreshed models over the last year or two.

Seriously - was just wondering if anyone else felt the same way?

I don't know, but it absolutely makes sense:

-Secondary market prices for new models has exploded
-It's had a trickledown effect on older models, pushing them higher
-Those with those older models (many purchased at discount) see opportunities to cash out
-They end up for sale at grey dealers since that's the easiest place to offload them to

This is the primary reason I was motivated to trade my old 16570 for my new watch. I don't necessarily believe that those prices will hold forever and therefore it made sense to do it now.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Please get your facts straight.

Rolex monthly production was 67,500 not 80,000

Chrono 24 & eBay uk are just two online places to buy, factor in the Grey's own web sites and other outlets .......... Equals a massive number of New/Unused watches being flipped.

You are averaging annual production when they were closed for two months.

There is no evidence of “massive” quantities of Rolexes being immediately flipped. You made the claim that the MAJORITY (50+%) are immediately flipped. Data shows it’s under 5%. Otherwise, you would see tens of thousands of new listings every month.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by JRell

You can flip a Tudor for profit? Lol come on bad joke!

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Bizcut1

Just purchased a new 18K RG and SS DJ41 with stickers on and the warranty card stamped and dated April 26, 2021. Paid $13,400 to a grey dealer. No tax and insured overnight shipping included. At retail, it would have been over $15K OTD with tax. And who knows who or what I would have had to "do" to get one.

Not all grey deals are created equally. A broad brush doesn't usually paint accurately. Careful research and shopping and then negotiating with knowledge and skill can yield successful results.

Ben

Great purchase.

[RadSS]

Originally Posted by Atone

Yes. Rolex tripled their output during Covid since people felt there weren’t enough watches being made. Next week most AD’s should be restocked with professional models.

This sounds great, but is this just another rumor? I was at an AD last week and they have calls every week with Rolex and they did not mention some big restocking.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by bob sims

Very few new Tudors are immediately flipped. Maybe 2%.

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by vh2k

You are averaging annual production when they were closed for two months.

There is no evidence of “massive” quantities of Rolexes being immediately flipped. You made the claim that the MAJORITY (50+%) are immediately flipped. Data shows it’s under 5%. Otherwise, you would see tens of thousands of new listings every month.

The interruption in Rolex production of March 2020 was in last years financial accounting period, this years accounting period April 2020 to March 2021 is still 67,500 approx produced per month.

To say of that 67,500 number 10k were Submariners is ludicrous, no one knows other than Rolex.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

The interruption in Rolex production of March 2020 was in last years financial accounting period, this years accounting period April 2020 to March 2021 is still 67,500 approx produced per month.

The Morgan Stanley / LuxeConsult report was based on the 2020 calendar year. Try again.

[hambone1983]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

That is the biggest factor effecting Rolex prices and values, the inevitable Crash of the US Dollar and rampant inflation.

A massive reset of currency and markets is about to hit us.

ok, I'll play. Why is there going to be an inevitable crash of the US dollar and rampant inflation?

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by vh2k

The Morgan Stanley / LuxeConsult report was based on the 2020 calendar year. Try again.

Hardly when it was released on the 26th October 2020 ...........did they have a crystal ball for the last 1/4 of 2020 year ?

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Rolex annual watch production is around 750 - 800 k, https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-accou...nual-turnover/

that is in a year without a Global pandemic, it is a fair assumption to say production would be reduced over the past 12 to 18 months,

this past year production figures are not available yet, so we don't know the exact figure.

So your data I think is compromised,

your further assumption based on exactly what are genuine Chrono 24 listings is another wild guess.

What can be relied upon is the numbers of listings and stock levels at Grey dealers, my own experience is valid and representative of the Rolex supply problem.

In the market for a Rolex Sub from an AD at retail ..............very difficult as always.

Wish to buy from a Grey or ebay no probs Chrono 24 has 487 available

ebay has 191.

The Flippers are winning and Greys are here to stay.

Seems like some watches advertised by Greys are using a stock photo, like they don't actually have the watch yet??

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by hambone1983

ok, I'll play. Why is there going to be an inevitable crash of the US dollar and rampant inflation?

US Treasury continues to print money to keep the country afloat, prices have risen sharply in the USA and raw materials are in short supply. A perfect storm.

Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, Robert Reich et al, are forecasting a major economic melt down for world and US markets.

The barometer for economic trouble is the price of Gold, let see what happens.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Hardly when it was released on the 26th October 2020 ...........did they have a crystal ball for the last 1/4 of 2020 year ?

Wrong again. News articles about the report came out in March 2021.

If the report was released in October 2020, wouldn’t it cover the period during which the Swiss watch industry was essentially shut down in March/April 2020?

You are arguing against your previous claim.

You are so off base, your arguments are inconsistent and desperate.

The fact remains... (even using your WRONG statistics) — if Rolex made 67K units a month, and the majority were being flipped for immediate profit, you would see evidence of at least 30K units being listed for sale or available from secondary resellers EVERY MONTH. There is ZERO evidence to support that.

There is no phantom grey market gobbling up billions of dollars of Rolexes every year. Secondary channel sales of brand new unworn Rolex units is a ridiculously small percentage of the market.

[Explorer2polar]

Morgan Stanley/ Luxe Consult report link :

Date 26th Oct 2020:

https://linkback.morganstanley.com/w...87aab56f447f0e

The report does make mention of Rolex shut down !

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Morgan Stanley/ Luxe Consult report link :

Date 26th Oct 2020:

https://linkback.morganstanley.com/w...87aab56f447f0e

The report does make mention of Rolex shut down !

That’s not the report published in 2021.

Moreover, from the link you provided (ESTIMATES for 2020):

In 2020, we believe that Rolex cut its production for a total of two months: first in April (for the first time) and then again in July/August. This means that volumes produced should be down around -15% to -20% in 2020 (i.e. to 800,000-850,000 units).

Again, YOU made the claim the majority of new Rolexes are being flipped for immediate profit. ZERO evidence to support that... and the data actually shows the figure is more like 5%.

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by vh2k

That’s not the report published in 2021.

Moreover, from the link you provided (ESTIMATES for 2020):

In 2020, we believe that Rolex cut its production for a total of two months: first in April (for the first time) and then again in July/August. This means that volumes produced should be down around -15% to -20% in 2020 (i.e. to 800,000-850,000 units).

Again, YOU made the claim the majority of new Rolexes are being flipped for immediate profit. ZERO evidence to support that... and the data actually shows the figure is more like 5%.

How can a Report be produced on Global Watch Companies performance in 2021 when its still Only May 2021 ? Do you not think thats strange ?

Financial Year Only started beginning of April 2021 !

The majority of Business reports/analysis is historical based on previous years performance, what your suggesting is the Report Authors are making wild assumptions just like yourself.

With regard flipping watches in my experience many get flipped for instant cash, if that was not the case I could walk into any AD and buy what I wanted. I can walk into any Grey dealer and buy what I want, therefore your "Only 5% are flipped" is ludicrous and makes you look and sound silly.

Prove that 5% are flipped please, where have you dredged that figure from ?

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by TTbluesy

Those who wanted to buy during Covid have, and grey prices have gone so stupid inventory is staying put...$14,000 for a used Sub?...$15,000 for an explorer? People are planning nice vacations again instead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can totally agree with this. As much as I wanted a really nice watch I’d rather fly my family back to Asia first class and have a memory with my kids. The thought of spending double on a hot watch just to have it doesn’t jive for me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Edfrozen]

Half of what you read is nonsense . How many " grey" dealers and " flippers" are on the forums spreading misinformation ?

[hambone1983]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

US Treasury continues to print money to keep the country afloat, prices have risen sharply in the USA and raw materials are in short supply. A perfect storm.

Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, Robert Reich et al, are forecasting a major economic melt down for world and US markets.

The barometer for economic trouble is the price of Gold, let see what happens.

interesting perspective. While I would agree that government spending is currently inflationary & that "stimulus" spending is wholly unnecessary when 10% GDP growth is forecast, the US is not running a deficit that is wildly out of line with several other OECD countries and China. So it is unlikely that the USD is going to drop radically vs world currencies.

Commodity prices are certainly increasing, but much of it can be seen as a short term result of pandemic-related shocks to supply chain & labor markets. And while Buffett doesn't explicitly make predictions, Berkshire Hathaway pulled a ton of money out of the market in 2020...and missed out on a 20% rise in the market.


I dont agree that gold prices are an accurate barometer of the economy. While it certainly is frequently used as a hedge against inflation, that is not the only factor driving gold prices.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

How can a Report be produced on Global Watch Companies performance in 2021 when its still Only May 2021 ? Do you not think thats strange ?

Financial Year Only started beginning of April 2021 !

You keep digging your hole deeper and deeper. The report came out in March 2021 covering the calendar year 2020. What is so difficult to understand?

Your arguments have been soundly debunked. The myth that $4 billion in Rolex watches are being gobbled up by the secondary market is pure nonsense.

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by vh2k

You keep digging your hole deeper and deeper. The report came out in March 2021 covering the calendar year 2020. What is so difficult to understand?

Your arguments have been soundly debunked. The myth that $4 billion in Rolex watches are being gobbled up by the secondary market is pure nonsense.

I have attached a copy of the report which clearly states the date it was published 26th Oct 2020 ! That is the period of time that has passed, over, complete !

As 2021 is still a work in progress no financial report exists for the Swiss watch Industry yet, as its still being written.

Your the expert in hole digging.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

I have attached a copy of the report which clearly states the date it was published 26th Oct 2020 ! That is the period of time that has passed, over, complete !

Your the expert in hole digging.

Full 2020 results. Enjoy the reading:

https://monochrome-watches.com/top-5...les-editorial/

https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-accou...nual-turnover/

Again, you offer ZERO evidence that the majority of Rolexes are immediately flipped... and I presented real data to the contrary.

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Full 2020 results. Enjoy the reading:

https://monochrome-watches.com/top-5...les-editorial/

https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-accou...nual-turnover/

Again, you offer ZERO evidence that the majority of Rolexes are immediately flipped... and I presented real data to the contrary.

HAHAHAHA

You really are missing the obvious point

The two Watch Industry Web sites you attach as some kind of evidence are in fact actually just reproducing the Original 26th Oct 2020 report I attached earlier.

Look I'll make this easier for you to understand: Compare the data from the original report I attached and compare it to these articles .................Yes its the same................isn't it ?

The original report came out on the 26th Oct 2020 which viewed historical data as its main evidence source over the past 12 months.

You are in the mistaken belief that a couple of Watch Industry Online web sites are producing new data and evidence ..............They are NOT ! they are simply rerunning an old article.

Good Grief ! is it that hard to understand ?

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

HAHAHAHA

You really are missing the obvious point

The two Watch Industry Web sites you attach as some kind of evidence are in fact actually just reproducing the Original 26th Oct 2020 report I attached earlier.

Look I'll make this easier for you to understand: Compare the data from the original report I attached and compare it to these articles .................Yes its the same................isn't it ?

The original report came out on the 26th Oct 2020 which viewed historical data as its main evidence source over the past 12 months.

You are in the mistaken belief that a couple of Watch Industry Online web sites are producing new data and evidence ..............They are NOT ! they are simply rerunning an old article.

Good Grief ! is it that hard to understand ?

Accepting ALL OF THIS as fact (which I don’t)...

Do you have ANY data — anecdotal or otherwise — that on average 30K+ new Rolex watches are flipped every month? Where are the phantom listings? Is the grey market gobbling up $300 million in Rolex inventory every month and storing in an underground bunker?

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by hambone1983

interesting perspective. While I would agree that government spending is currently inflationary & that "stimulus" spending is wholly unnecessary when 10% GDP growth is forecast, the US is not running a deficit that is wildly out of line with several other OECD countries and China. So it is unlikely that the USD is going to drop radically vs world currencies.

Commodity prices are certainly increasing, but much of it can be seen as a short term result of pandemic-related shocks to supply chain & labor markets. And while Buffett doesn't explicitly make predictions, Berkshire Hathaway pulled a ton of money out of the market in 2020...and missed out on a 20% rise in the market.


I dont agree that gold prices are an accurate barometer of the economy. While it certainly is frequently used as a hedge against inflation, that is not the only factor driving gold prices.

"The federal government ran a deficit of $3.1 trillion in fiscal year 2020, more than triple the deficit for fiscal year 2019. This year's deficit amounted to 15.2% of GDP, the greatest deficit as a share of the economy since 1945" !!!!

The US has the highest deficit recorded in the world !

Listen .............I Hope I'm wrong but the US economy is going to TANK soon!

If you have Industry Financial Analysts saying " Cash is Trash" hit the panic button and Buy as much Gold and Silver as you can afford my friend.