Who’s going to be left holding the bag?

[Harry-57]

I don't bother reading the minds of people I've never met and never will. I buy what I can afford and if something is out of reach I either forget about it and/or buy something else. I have paid a bit over MSRP for two Rolex watches before the used market went ultra bonkers, but all the watches I've bought down the years for a discount cancel that and then some.

Today's grey prices just don't interest me, so I don't waste my time or brain. Anyone who wants to pay that kind of money, or negotiate down from it, is welcome to do so. It's none of my business. If it ever gets more sane in my lifetime, I might get interested again, although I'll always be interested in the wider grey market because I don't only buy Rolex and most brands are well discounted.

The well established greys know what they are doing for the most part. Losses in some areas or slimmer margins are a part of generating overall profit, but they will have been coining it on Rolex for years. The YouTwitFace speculators will probably be burned the most. People like that always are. Nothing new.

[Ensign]

Definitely greys and new collectors. The rush is coming for greys once they realize the only way to survive is to seriously discount watches. That might help a little, but ultimately they won’t be able to break even on any watch they got for more than MSRP - which is every watch they bought in the last two or three years.

How long can they operate with no significant income? Three months? By the Fall, I think the market will really get sporty.

New collectors who rushed into the hobby and have full watch boxes will just have to keep their circa 2022 watch collections.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by Papanas

When the SHTF and the Rolex manipulative market crashes
and prices fall whos going to be left holding the stink bag?

Inflation, all time high and still rising…
Supply demand on food soaring…baby formula, eggs ,
food processing and manufacturing plants going up in
flames nationwide mysteriously last 5 months
really , just happened chance?
Energy prices still soaring daily …
Housing prices still soaring and unattainable for most US citizens…
Building supplies all time high and still risings..
Shall I go on ???

Please spare me the drama/bs excuses and tell me who’s buying Rolex
at these insane inflated and manipulative prices ?
Only the super affluent and don’t give a damn or
rats a$$ about tomorrow , or stupid .
rich folk might be buying at these insane prices … just to
show boat and say I can still own it or hey , I’m part of the elite!!!

Rant … whatever
I’ve had a few Rolex in my day , sorry I sold .
Not necessarily for $$$ or gain … hard times on my business
I can’t stand seeing these crazy prices for people who are
real watch enthusiasts and not profiteers!!!
Bring it on , Bash me, curse me just don’t
cancel me…. Lol

So you missed the bus?

[John Fugate]

Originally Posted by Gab27

I think anyone who went into this realizing that a Rolex is not an investment and that it is completely possible that they will depreciate in value will be fine, regardless of where they got their watch from or how much they paid for it. YMMV.

I buy Rolex watches to wear , I could care less if I win lose or draw. I buy from AD's, Greys, and the street. I guess I could go to my grave with a bunch on New Old Stock Rolexes, that would ultimately fall in the hands of somebody else when I roll out. I enjoy my watches and buy what I like,, what's that worth. Why do you buy Levi's ? Investment ?

[Tools]

Originally Posted by Papanas

When the SHTF and the Rolex manipulative market crashes
and prices fall whos going to be left holding the stink bag?

. . .

Not sure what you are on about.

When these artificially inflated prices drop, whoever has over-leveraged themselves will be "holding the .. bag", just as it always is.

Those who have purchased at un-sustainable market prices will see depreciation, again, just as it always has done.

[zengineer]

I have people to hold my bags for me.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[BNA/LION]

Don't Care and It Won't Be Me.

[G23Guy]

Originally Posted by Andad

So you missed the bus?

Its already turned around and heading back.

[Mystro]

But even more possible, where will you be when the Mc Rib comes back this year and will you buy at msrp or wait for a coupon???

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by John Fugate

I buy Rolex watches to wear , I could care less if I win lose or draw. I buy from AD's, Greys, and the street. I guess I could go to my grave with a bunch on New Old Stock Rolexes, that would ultimately fall in the hands of somebody else when I roll out. I enjoy my watches and buy what I like,, what's that worth. Why do you buy Levi's ? Investment ?

Precisely! I didn't buy mine for the purpose of value retention or investment. For that matter, I buy other watches that depreciate the moment you put them on. I want a watch to enjoy. Regardless of what I paid and regardless of what happens with value, I'll never feel like I am 'holding the bag' because I got what makes me happy.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Papanas

just don’t
cancel me….

[TheDon2000]

The flipping needs to be brought down. It is absolutely out of control. The new left-handed Green/Black GMT is a perfect example. It JUST came out. Almost no one has one in retail possession for personal use and yet there are many on the market and the current price appears to be around or north of $60,000.00. The same thing happened to the other "new" pieces, such as the green dial YG DD (I saw some going for 125,000 euro).

I don't know how it can be done but it's truly not a good thing for the Rolex brand, at least in the long run. Rolex has been producing as many watches as ever and yet if you looked at the availability and secondary market, you wouldn't think they were. I happen to know the owners of roughly 5 ADs and they all know the watches are flowing out of Switzerland like never before. They're just IMMEDIATELY being backdoor-ed to grays and flippers who either have deals that split the profit with the house (the AD) or just take and flip for their own profits. The good news is, Rolex is trying. There were THREE AD's shut down in my state alone last year for backdoor sales or selling to an individual with a handshake deal to split the profit from the flip. In other words, the AD would call a customer, tell them hey come in and buy this Daytona, immediately turn around and trade it in. We'll sell it for $50,000 and then give you a check for half or a hefty amount to compensate you. Win-win for the AD: they show a retail sale to Rolex and get most of the profit from a flip. However, Rolex found out and shut their doors down. When Rolex comes in, they take no prisoners. Every display case and Rolex branded anything is owned by them and leased to the ADs. They show up, unannounced, take all their stuff and politely inform you that you'll no longer be receiving any Rolex's and have lost certification status. I'm sure Rolex also has the ability to recover chargebacks, just like Automotive dealerships.

I'm not into watches for the money. I buy watches that I love. I want to buy almost all of the "hot" SS Rolex watches. Not because of their value or to flip but because I love their aesthetics and history and want to have a diverse collection. So many others are just ruining it and I blame most of it on the hype that is found in social media. There's a reason the craziest price inflations on watches (Think SS Rolex Sports models, 5711, AP RO 15202, etc.) surrounds basic, steel, watches. They're easy on the eyes and "affordable" at MSRP (until 100 million people want the same 1 million watches).

Just my rant. I'm ready for this stuff to end. I'm a guy with connections and have been lucky enough to buy some of these hard to get pieces from ADs. But I'm tired of the hype train. I don't care if it costs me tens of thousands of dollars in "unrealized" "watch portfolio value". I'll take that any day for the ability to buy nearly any watch I want after a month or two of notifying my local AD I want one.

[vman]

If you don't know who's holding the bag after the music stops, there is a good chance that it is you.

[Papanas]

Originally Posted by Mystro

But even more possible, where will you be when the Mc Rib comes back this year and will you buy at msrp or wait for a coupon???

Not everything has a coupon… lol
But Rolex professional at msrp is a win for the
buyer and seller but not the flipper … I wish we were
talking about the dolphin …

[macrowatch]

Darnnit, I knew it was a bad idea to be holding this green shopping bag!

[Papanas]

Originally Posted by TheDon2000

The flipping needs to be brought down. It is absolutely out of control. The new left-handed Green/Black GMT is a perfect example. It JUST came out. Almost no one has one in retail possession for personal use and yet there are many on the market and the current price appears to be around or north of $60,000.00. The same thing happened to the other "new" pieces, such as the green dial YG DD (I saw some going for 125,000 euro).

I don't know how it can be done but it's truly not a good thing for the Rolex brand, at least in the long run. Rolex has been producing as many watches as ever and yet if you looked at the availability and secondary market, you wouldn't think they were. I happen to know the owners of roughly 5 ADs and they all know the watches are flowing out of Switzerland like never before. They're just IMMEDIATELY being backdoor-ed to grays and flippers who either have deals that split the profit with the house (the AD) or just take and flip for their own profits. The good news is, Rolex is trying. There were THREE AD's shut down in my state alone last year for backdoor sales or selling to an individual with a handshake deal to split the profit from the flip. In other words, the AD would call a customer, tell them hey come in and buy this Daytona, immediately turn around and trade it in. We'll sell it for $50,000 and then give you a check for half or a hefty amount to compensate you. Win-win for the AD: they show a retail sale to Rolex and get most of the profit from a flip. However, Rolex found out and shut their doors down. When Rolex comes in, they take no prisoners. Every display case and Rolex branded anything is owned by them and leased to the ADs. They show up, unannounced, take all their stuff and politely inform you that you'll no longer be receiving any Rolex's and have lost certification status. I'm sure Rolex also has the ability to recover chargebacks, just like Automotive dealerships.

I'm not into watches for the money. I buy watches that I love. I want to buy almost all of the "hot" SS Rolex watches. Not because of their value or to flip but because I love their aesthetics and history and want to have a diverse collection. So many others are just ruining it and I blame most of it on the hype that is found in social media. There's a reason the craziest price inflations on watches (Think SS Rolex Sports models, 5711, AP RO 15202, etc.) surrounds basic, steel, watches. They're easy on the eyes and "affordable" at MSRP (until 100 million people want the same 1 million watches).

Just my rant. I'm ready for this stuff to end. I'm a guy with connections and have been lucky enough to buy some of these hard to get pieces from ADs. But I'm tired of the hype train. I don't care if it costs me tens of thousands of dollars in "unrealized" "watch portfolio value". I'll take that any day for the ability to buy nearly any watch I want after a month or two of notifying my local AD I want one.

Love your post … Great insight as well and
passion for what matters .

[Papanas]

Originally Posted by zengineer

I have people to hold my bags for me.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[offrdmania]

Its funny how what someone is asking for a watch is set as the new high benchmark. Who cares what someone is asking, the important information is what the watch is actually selling for. Im sure it is a fraction of these bloated fairytale land prices.
Everyone keeps talking about the market softening or crashing but im still seeing the same bloated prices listed everywhere. I want to know what these watches are selling for.

Can I finally buy a Patek 5167a in the mid $25 grand range like they were being offered during Covid?

[sinkholeninja]

World’s a big, connected place and for the number of watches produced there are way more people willing to buy, seemingly at any price.

[Papanas]

Originally Posted by Andad

So you missed the bus?

Which one ?
Buses come and go all the time …

[Calatrava r]

There is no drop in the retail segment. It is still tough to buy Rolex at MSRP from ADs. Who cares what the used market does, if it's over retail, ignore it. Who cares who is holding the bag, it is not you. We should actually expect a discount on used stuff still in production. If the economy softens, expect buying from ADs to become easier, not easy, but easier.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by sinkholeninja

World’s a big, connected place and for the number of watches produced there are way more people willing to buy, seemingly at any price.

I suspect only a small fraction of Rolex watches bought from ADs are sold quickly for a profit. Most of the watches for sale on-line are actually close to or over a year old. Watches sold on-line are just so visible it gives the illusion all Rolex are flipped. Rolex makes a million watches a year, each year. Virtually, tons of them out there compared to what is for sale used.

[enjoythemusic]

I look fwd to the deals.

Thank you TRF

[11b1p]

I just want a 5 digit GMT for 8k give or take, that’s all I’m waiting for.

[amh]

Maybe no one will be left holding the bag - because there will be no crash.

There has been a 'correction' but hot models are holding steady at 2x MSRP. Maybe this is the new floor.

All the 'Moda' insiders perhaps know more. For us regular folk only the public grey prices (or TRF FS prices) matter.

[Bill11783]

Fortunate to get my three at retail from an authorized dealer. Would not buy a Rolex if I had to pay today’s hyped prices on the secondary market.

[Fleetlord]

So when is this supposed to happen?

I was at a high end mall this weekend and couldn't find parking.

1 hr plus wait at restaurants

Watches still selling of grey market and preowned sites...etc

Yes, the greys are paying less or cutting out buying...which used to be a harbinger of bad vibes...but now...guess we will see in next few months...

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

I think the established sellers will fare well. They’ve had a 3-5yr run on high profits and it’s not like they have big brick stores and leases to cover. They can fire staff if it gets slow and they still have liquid assets as a hedge. Maybe not 40% margins but 15% will have to do.

It’s the more recent ‘influencer’ flippers who could be harmed. They likely pay more (Carvana model) and have fewer connections to take stale inventory.

In the end everyone made money. A lot of money. And if they can manage themselves as well as their businesses the last 5yrs they should be fine.

And if not, they were simply lucky.

Yup.

[IgCarr]

Anthony Farrer. He will be left holding the bag.

[John Fugate]

5 dollar a gallon gas ,,insane, crazy, ridiculous, but I’m still filling up. How about those straight from heaven stimulus checks now ? It’s coming back to haunt us all. America may be left holding the bag.