Should I buy grey or wait for AD.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

The proper channel is the one you favour to get you the watch you want, at the price you are willing to pay, in a time scale that suits you.

It's as simple as that, although you are free to make it as complicated as you want.

Perfectly put Harry

[dontbeshort]

Definitely go grey and get those secondary market prices up where they belong .

[rolex--]

Originally Posted by dontbeshort

Definitely go grey and get those secondary market prices up where they belong .

Dude none of these watches are going to go back up anytime soon. In fact being a futures trader I'd be hedging my bets that these continue to drop another 40-50% over the next 6 months easy.

They will all be at MSRP or lower sooner or later. Maybe the Daytona will be a few grand above. All other models are just hype and speculation.

When the hype disappears so does all the crazy prices. Have you seen instagram/facbook/tiktok? The very platforms that helped create this bubble EVERYTHING is dead. Hype has disappeared and there is like only few comments on some posts. Many posts of watches have 0 comments now. Nobody gives a damn anymore.

The watch game is finished. Its beautiful news for the true watch lovers - its doom and gloom for all the flippers and investors in watches.

[Sauzo]

Originally Posted by rolex--

Dude none of these watches are going to go back up anytime soon. In fact being a futures trader I'd be hedging my bets that these continue to drop another 40-50% over the next 6 months easy.

They will all be at MSRP or lower sooner or later. Maybe the Daytona will be a few grand above. All other models are just hype and speculation.

When the hype disappears so does all the crazy prices. Have you seen instagram/facbook/tiktok? The very platforms that helped create this bubble EVERYTHING is dead. Hype has disappeared and there is like only few comments on some posts. Many posts of watches have 0 comments now. Nobody gives a damn anymore.

The watch game is finished. Its beautiful news for the true watch lovers - its doom and gloom for all the flippers and investors in watches.

I agree the prices will drop but I’m not sure back down to msrp any time soon. With fiasco of crypto, I see gen z people using the “hottest watches” as a physical place to cash in on their crypto.

[rolex--]

Originally Posted by Sauzo

I agree the prices will drop but I’m not sure back down to msrp any time soon. With fiasco of crypto, I see gen z people using the “hottest watches” as a physical place to cash in on their crypto.

I'm very heavily into the crypto game. Let me tell you right now there is NOT a single crypto millionaire using watches to store their money.

My client base has 100s of crypto investors. They have lost 10s of millions of dollars. They are not investing into watches that have also dropped 50%+ within a 6 month timeframe. Many of my clients have sold off their RMs/Pateks and APs for huge huge losses. They are not buying they are selling.

They are moving their money into legitimate stocks and real estate. Not another speculative market.

[Sauzo]

Originally Posted by rolex--

I'm very heavily into the crypto game. Let me tell you right now there is NOT a single crypto millionaire using watches to store their money.

My client base has 100s of crypto investors. They have lost 10s of millions of dollars. They are not investing into watches that have also dropped 50%+ within a 6 month timeframe. Many of my clients have sold off their RMs/Pateks and APs for huge huge losses. They are not buying they are selling.

They are moving their money into legitimate stocks and real estate. Not another speculative market.

Hope you’re right. I might be able to finally pick up a “Batman” at msrp as I don’t see it as a $18k watch.

[gwozhog]

Get the TT SeaDweller. Coolest sub ever made. I sold a SS subc to jump into one.
https://youtube.com/shorts/-xPgdZXqWaw?feature=share

[ww2gunguy]

I looked and bought one off my list from a grey dealer...tired of waiting for AD's....I looked till i was able to find a combo of near mint, still in warranty, and a price I could live with...I'm still on the AD's list for three other variations...so the wait is now much easier with one to wear daily while I wait...just my two cents.

[rohada]

FWIW, I employed a dual strategy of developing a relationship with my contact at the AD as well as pursuing used models. I provided a list of a few models to the AD and then researched to see what other models I wanted that were transacting (at the time) below what I would pay at the AD (plus tax) in the preowned market. Those models I pursued on the used market. The list for the AD included a GMT Pepsi. I have no buying history with the AD, but have developed a nice relationship with them. A year later, I got the GMT Pepsi. So, I can attest to being able to get a desirable watch with no buying history, though it may not be a frequent occurrence.

During that same time period, I picked up a few DJs that I wear primarily while at work, as well as an SDDS. The used market purchases were under the MSRP plus tax that I would've paid (if I could've even gotten them). I plan on keeping these for the foreseeable future, so I feel I'll do just fine when I go to sell them. Watches are a hobby, so I'm not looking to make a killing off them. I enjoy owning and wearing them. YMMV.

[cerendigit]

The is AD is about how much money you previously spent, not so much how much you wait.

[ordinary55]

Depending on the watch,SS daytona,SS GMT,SS SkyD impossible to get without history

[newonos]

wait.

[Sauzo]

How bad do you want the watch? How long are you willing to wait? Are you planning on flipping it? I’ve been on “the list” for 2 years for a “Batman” or “Pepsi”. And that’s with a $60k spend history. Kind of quit asking so either they hate me or forgot about me. But in my case, I’m not dying for one. If I was, I’d probably wait a few months and then just get it on the grey and be done.

[321Forever]

You can go grey and pay more than the watch is worth and if you can spare the cash, then that's great for you. So you can live with the grey sellers making money the way that they do and you can part with your money because you don't want to wait and you want what you want now.

Or you can wait and pay retail which is what the watch costs new from an AD.

In both cases, in most cases, what the watch is worth will be less than both of those options. If you don't care about that calculus, then you can do what you want to do.

...Yawn...

I think what is more exciting is my friend who got offered her Kelly bag today after spending $25K on Hermes stuff over 3 months. And because she spent another $9K today on a ring, she was offered a special order bag.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

You can go grey and pay more than the watch is worth and if you can spare the cash, then that's great for you. So you can live with the grey sellers making money the way that they do and you can part with your money because you don't want to wait and you want what you want now.

Or you can wait and pay retail which is what the watch costs new from an AD.

In both cases, in most cases, what the watch is worth will be less than both of those options. If you don't care about that calculus, then you can do what you want to do.

...Yawn...

I think what is more exciting is my friend who got offered her Kelly bag today after spending $25K on Hermes stuff over 3 months. And because she spent another $9K today on a ring, she was offered a special order bag.

Actually, most used watch dealers work on much slimmer margins than the new watch retailers. ADs get about 38 percent in the US, whereas the used dealers are lucky to get 20 percent on the hotter models. They have to pay the going rate to buy product just like any other business and folks with a watch to sell price shop the buy prices for the best deals. It's gets fuzzier, of course, when a watch is traded in for another used watch.

[teabags001]

I used to buy grey when you could buy it cheaper. Now I only buy new because it’s new and cheaper. Patience in the key. Once you can get in keep a good relationship and you never know what will happen. The 3rd watch I bought from my AD was a blue skyD.

Keep your head up and best of luck.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dannyp]

I’d find a different AD. Not sure about the VTNR, but I think most who’ve sought an Explorer from an AD have eventually found one. If possible look outside of big cities, maybe?

[techboiii]

you should wait for the call


Tapatalk kullanarak iPhone aracılığıyla gönderildi

[ThatOtherGuy7]

I’d like to build a relationship with local AD. However, the rare pieces take forever to receive. If I can get it from grey dealers at about the same cost (plus a small margin for their profit), I would definitely consider it.

[bobernet]

The “AD experience” is overrated, even for those brands where “papers” are personalized. You see the name on them once when you buy and once when you sell, never when you’re wearing the watch.

In the decades I’ve been buying, selling and wearing high end watches, I’ve saved way more buying gray than the premium over retail I’d pay for the few very competitive and desirable models (e.g. a Patek enamel world time).

[watchandbullion]

Just go grey

[~Ocho1~]

my 2 cents......

I had been on the list with the only local AD since April for a run of the mill DJ41, not even a sports model. Granted, it was a very specific DJ combination, but nothing exotic or out of the ordinary.

All the while I kept an eye out for the trusted grey dealers, one had the watch, but at almost 50% than what it is new. I won't pay that much.

The other day I saw the exact DJ at a much more reasonable price, I made the grey dealer a reasonable offer & got the DJ, still under factory warranty for a few hundred more than if I would've purchased through AD with taxes.

Received the watch within 24hrs of the deal.

I guess it all comes down to what you are comfortable paying. A couple hundred more than what it would've cost me through an AD to get it now was OK with me.....a couple of thousand isn't ok with me.

[TimeAZ]

Originally Posted by ~Ocho1~

my 2 cents......

I had been on the list with the only local AD since April for a run of the mill DJ41, not even a sports model. Granted, it was a very specific DJ combination, but nothing exotic or out of the ordinary.

All the while I kept an eye out for the trusted grey dealers, one had the watch, but at almost 50% than what it is new. I won't pay that much.

The other day I saw the exact DJ at a much more reasonable price, I made the grey dealer a reasonable offer & got the DJ, still under factory warranty for a few hundred more than if I would've purchased through AD with taxes.

Received the watch within 24hrs of the deal.

I guess it all comes down to what you are comfortable paying. A couple hundred more than what it would've cost me through an AD to get it now was OK with me.....a couple of thousand isn't ok with me.

This is the way. Reality is that even a DJ is hard to get, especially certain configurations. The new "hunt" is to find what you want at the best price and with realistic acquisition time.

[Baiv]

Go grey

[bk_collector]

Same boat... It's tough. Obviously would prefer AD and have that "experience" and get the box/papers and have it brand new to me but I'm probably going to go grey but continue checking in with my AD from time to time.

[kopi-c]

Rolex wins either way you go grey or AD... lol

[DoctorsOrders]

I say wait, it will make the acquisition even more special!