Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

What's everyones thoughts on Biden's speech tonight?

Priced in or will the markets jump on Stimulus plans?

Sorry but that subject will get this thread locked. Stick to what markets and companies are doing, not a subject that is against the rules, thanks.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Sorry but that subject will get this thread locked. Stick to what markets and companies are doing, not a subject that is against the rules, thanks.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I think what people are missing here with INTC announcing the new CEO they hired from VM WARE is a MASSIVE oversell in VM WARE and Dell. Mostly because the fact VM Ware did not announce a new CEO and DELL is majority stakeholder in VMW. Zero reason for this stock to be down 8% today and I suspect announcement of new CEO will stabilize the stock. Very low forward PE of 19 (especially for tech) 4.99 p/s, small float and high institutional ownership. Added to jan 2022 140C (down 32% TODAY when the stock is down 7%), IV compression and will DCA over the next month if it trends downwards. Also, I suspect once VMW finally spins off of Dell it should be another catalyst to push the stock higher.

Hopefully some of you are ridding my BBBY calls from a few weeks back, stock was $18 and now trading near 23.16 as their ASR continues and is due to complete by end of Feb.

Looking at entry into ED 2022/23 LEAPs as Manhattan isn't going anywhere and these are dirt cheap, same with KMB which appears oversold and can't imagine people will stop buying diapers/toilet paper etc. Anyone else in ED or KMB?

What. A. Day.

BBBY up another 19% today, took profits here. Classic textbook reversal on the VMW that I mentioned yesterday (requoted for anyone who missed), those jan 2022c reversed from 13.40 yesterday, way oversold and reverted back to $15.20, nice 13.5% one day profit when the stock was only up 1.70%. In and out. Exactly how to play when a stock unnecessarily sells off and then finding the right option to participate in the reversal.

[Flex368]

PLTR extremely strong in after/pre-market trading. Any idea why?

@7sins: What´s your take on SNOW for the next weeks?

[beshannon]

JPM solid earnings beat, will need to wait for the conference call and details on loan loss reserves, buybacks and dividend increas if any.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/365174...ats-on-revenue

I am long JPM as it is a core holding for me.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by Flex368

PLTR extremely strong in after/pre-market trading. Any idea why?

@7sins: What´s your take on SNOW for the next weeks?

Ark has been buying shares again. That is what reversed yesterday’s course.

Plus many “investors” have questioned Citi’s recent upgrade.

PLTR also announced on 1/13 an $8.5m contract with the army with a potential value of $250m

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Anyone notice that Seeking Alpha is now charging a subscription to read all articles? I know in the past they had a premium account option, but I can no longer access any articles without the paywall.

Same here, but I’ve found it only applies to the most recent articles. If I search for them after a few days I can read most of them again.


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[logo]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Ark has been buying shares again. That is what reversed yesterday’s course.

Plus many “investors” have questioned Citi’s recent upgrade.

PLTR also announced on 1/13 an $8.5m contract with the army with a potential value of $250m

I’m very curious to see what their investor day holds. I’m still extremely skeptical about this company and stock.

[-dustin]

Oof. Taking a beating so far today. Having been buying/ selling much...just gathering up cash. Might add to some positions if these dips hold.

[RyanO]

Reopened my position in Square.

Nice to see Fb reclaiming the 200day


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by Flex368

PLTR extremely strong in after/pre-market trading. Any idea why?

@7sins: What´s your take on SNOW for the next weeks?

Closed my entire position when it was around $280, I think it goes sideways for a bit over the next few weeks until the next march lockup which is 300m shares. Better opportunities elsewhere in the market. A few weeks before the March lockup for SNOW and the lockup for DASH, I will be overweight puts in both. The HUGE rally in DASH has been insane and very overvalued, same exact story as SNOW with a very small float and low volume being manipulated. For context, their marketcap is almost as large as FDX who literally delivers everything to customers. Grossly overvalued, that will be an easy put.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by logo

I’m very curious to see what their investor day holds. I’m still extremely skeptical about this company and stock.

What are your main concerns?

[logo]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

What are your main concerns?

I posted details a few pages back, but as someone who works in AI I do feel their current product offering is overhyped, overpriced and will not stand the test of time as AI becomes more mainstream and accessible. In the not-so-distant future, it is my belief that businesses will not contract out for this stuff - it will either be done in house or your business will fail.

From Palantir’s “About” website:

With good data and the right technology, people and institutions today can still solve hard problems and change the world for the better.

In 2004, when we looked at the available technology, we saw products that were too rigid to handle novel problems, and custom systems that took too long to deploy and required too many services to maintain and improve.

We saw automated approaches that failed against adaptive adversaries, and all-or-nothing access controls that forced organizations to make unacceptable trade-offs between collaborating and securing sensitive data from misuse.

We saw a need for a different kind of technology, and we knew it would take a different kind of company to build it. That’s why we founded Palantir.


And that’s exactly the reason I’m skeptical. What was a good idea in 2004 to fill a gap, will be obsolete very, very quickly as more experts in data analytics and AI enter the workforce who can custom-develop solutions for their own company at a fraction of the cost of Palantir.

[jaisonline]

Thought I already posted this. Not sure if it was deleted by mods. Please DM me if there is an issue.

FYI.. FedEx news

“11:59a ET 1/15/2021 - Dow Jones
FedEx Adding More Surcharges on Large Shippers -- Market Talk

11:59 ET - FedEx will hit large shippers with another surcharge on shipments to homes as shipping volumes and costs both remain high.

The delivery company says that starting Feb. 15, customers who shipped more than 30,000 packages a week will be charged an extra 30 cents on all packages delivered to residential addresses.

The surcharge will remain in place until further notice, much like the extension of the peak surcharges on oversized items and more. Like rival UPS, FedEx is finding itself with strong pricing power during the pandemic, and it's not afraid to use it. “

[0xalate]

I’m frankly surprised at how low $FDX is trading right now despite all the news about shipments not slowing down ^^


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[Flex368]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Closed my entire position when it was around $280

Thanks, I closed my last position today as well.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by 0xalate

I’m frankly surprised at how low $FDX is trading right now despite all the news about shipments not slowing down ^^


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Look at the volume, it has been very low and you have seen a significant amount of money shift into tech chasing returns. This is normal in any consolidation phase for a stock before marching upwards again. We saw a solid base form in the low 240s. The next catalyst will be the upcoming ER which includes black friday, cyber monday, holiday shipping extended to jan 19, excessive surcharges and vaccine shipments. Last ER call CEO said the next quarter will be their best quarter ever. Here is what is really interesting, look at the chart below, estimates for next ER are pretty low at $3.33, I suspect FDX reports above $5. FDX will run strong into the next ER. With low volume, MMs often manipulate the stock so short term options expire worthless which is easy for institutions with deep pockets. I've been DCAing all the way down, once money rotates back in we will be back at $300 soon.

Originally Posted by Flex368

Thanks, I closed my last position today as well.

Nice, congrats! Hope you made good $$$

[AshCashEmAll]

I’m pushing all in on FDX


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[jaisonline]

Quite a ride this week with Churchill Capital IV, huh? CCIV.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Quite a ride this week with Churchill Capital IV, huh? CCIV.

Yeah. Rode that one up from $14 and sold half of my positions yesterday. Its volatile that I can get back in anytime. Seems CCIV, ACTC and IPOE are the three most stable and popular SPACs in my portfolio.

Picked up SENS yesterday. Interesting tech with FDA approval. Can’t beat the price and market cap.. should get a good run out of it.

https://youtu.be/i13Of2KCSEA

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Yeah. Rode that one up from $14 and sold half of my positions yesterday. Its volatile that I can get back in anytime. Seems CCIV, ACTC and IPOE are the three most stable and popular SPACs in my portfolio.

Yes. Very volatile. I would say my CCIV positions (stock & $17.50 Aug calls ) are the riskiest in my portfolio. I do own Tesla but my buy-in was pretty low so not counting that.

Not automatic but I did a see one connect between CCIV & Lucid. Andrew Liveris is an Operating Managing Partner for Churchill Partners IV & also on Lucid’s board.

https://iv.churchillcapitalcorp.com/...ndrew-liveris/

https://www.lucidmotors.com/company/board/

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Yes. Very volatile. I would say my CCIV positions (stock & $17.50 Aug calls ) are the riskiest in my portfolio. I do own Tesla but my buy-in was pretty low so not counting that.

Not automatic but I did a see one connect between CCIV & Lucid. Andrew Liveris is an Operating Managing Partner for Churchill Partners IV & also on Lucid’s board.

https://iv.churchillcapitalcorp.com/...ndrew-liveris/

https://www.lucidmotors.com/company/board/

Adding to your links. Saudis own 50% of Lucid and Andrew is an advisor to the prince in their commonwealth sovereign fund I think? A lot of digging has been done since last Nov/Dec by this poster..

https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comme...tm_name=iossmf

[smc23]

Originally Posted by smc23

MRNA pulled back significantly from its highs. Anyone else thinking it is a good time to take a position on this one when (if) it reaches $90-$100?

I've closed my position in MRNA above 130. I think the bounce from low 100's is enough for me with all the upcoming vaccines on the way.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Yes. Very volatile. I would say my CCIV positions (stock & $17.50 Aug calls ) are the riskiest in my portfolio. I do own Tesla but my buy-in was pretty low so not counting that.

Not automatic but I did a see one connect between CCIV & Lucid. Andrew Liveris is an Operating Managing Partner for Churchill Partners IV & also on Lucid’s board.

https://iv.churchillcapitalcorp.com/...ndrew-liveris/

https://www.lucidmotors.com/company/board/

The Liveris connection is definitely adding fuel to the fire after the Bloomberg and Reuters articles. This one is running hard on just pure speculation and anything less than lucid (direct tv? ) will tank the commons, and more so the warrants.

I like Lucid and wouldn’t mind being long here but this is likely to run to $30 or more if announced and possibly do a QS move. At that point it’ll be priced at several times what the spac sponsors felt the company was worth, which could be seen as good news for investors but it also implicitly implies lucid themselves undervalued themself several times and they’re the ones running the company.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

I’m pushing all in on FDX


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So much for diversification haha. If you do decide to take a large position, you should always try to hedge incase the market goes sideways or an unexpected catalyst causes the price to decline. Buy OTM short dated puts, they won't cost you much and it will provide an effective hedge. Best case scenario, stock turns down due to market vol, cash out your puts for a nice profit, then wait for your longer dated calls or underlying security to appreciate in time. Win win. Or I can further elaborate on writing puts to collect premium to lower the cost basis on the stock and or writing covered calls against the stock so you can generate easy income on your underlying security - lmk if anyone wants me to walk through how this works, great way to generate income.

Originally Posted by smc23

I've closed my position in MRNA above 130. I think the bounce from low 100's is enough for me with all the upcoming vaccines on the way.

Remember investing in MRNA isn't about just the vaccine, it is about the mRNA technology and their extensive pipeline. I think the majority of the vaccine revenue is priced in (albeit they say the vaccine only lasts a year so this could mean more revenue streams in the future) however this is just inning one for mRNA technology and I think will lead to many unique opportunities in the long run - they are working on customized cancer treatments for example. https://www.modernatx.com/pipeline. There does appear to be an uptick in allergic reactions, if this holds true, this could be problematic for the stock price in the short term.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by 7sins

So much for diversification haha. If you do decide to take a large position, you should always try to hedge incase the market goes sideways or an unexpected catalyst causes the price to decline. Buy OTM short dated puts, they won't cost you much and it will provide an effective hedge. Best case scenario, stock turns down due to market vol, cash out your puts for a nice profit, then wait for your longer dated calls or underlying security to appreciate in time. Win win. Or I can further elaborate on writing puts to collect premium to lower the cost basis on the stock and or writing covered calls against the stock so you can generate easy income on your underlying security - lmk if anyone wants me to walk through how this works, great way to generate income.

Agreed, covered calls are my preferred method of stock income vs a traditional dividend account. Additionally, you can never have a realized loss if you continue to sell at a strike above your cost basis. Pretty overlooked imo.

[waQstar]

[QUOTE=7sins;11206910]So much for diversification haha. If you do decide to take a large position, you should always try to hedge incase the market goes sideways or an unexpected catalyst causes the price to decline. Buy OTM short dated puts, they won't cost you much and it will provide an effective hedge. Best case scenario, stock turns down due to market vol, cash out your puts for a nice profit, then wait for your longer dated calls or underlying security to appreciate in time. Win win. Or I can further elaborate on writing puts to collect premium to lower the cost basis on the stock and or writing covered calls against the stock so you can generate easy income on your underlying security - lmk if anyone wants me to walk through how this works, great way to generate income.

Hi there,
Would like to understand this, any reading material available on this ?

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by 7sins

So much for diversification haha. If you do decide to take a large position, you should always try to hedge incase the market goes sideways or an unexpected catalyst causes the price to decline. Buy OTM short dated puts, they won't cost you much and it will provide an effective hedge. Best case scenario, stock turns down due to market vol, cash out your puts for a nice profit, then wait for your longer dated calls or underlying security to appreciate in time. Win win. Or I can further elaborate on writing puts to collect premium to lower the cost basis on the stock and or writing covered calls against the stock so you can generate easy income on your underlying security - lmk if anyone wants me to walk through how this works, great way to generate income.

I read your posts and I always wish I knew enough to even understand it. I am basically financially illiterate and just know enough to be dangerous.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

I read your posts and I always wish I knew enough to even understand it. I am basically financially illiterate and just know enough to be dangerous.

Hi,

Basically 7sins is giving a good strategy about hedging your FDX long position (since you own stock outright - not borrowing it for an option) with a Put option. This way, if the stock price decreases, you can make money on the cheap “out of the money” Put option and then wait it out on the regular stock.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/putoption.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o...-the-money-otm

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

The Liveris connection is definitely adding fuel to the fire after the Bloomberg and Reuters articles. This one is running hard on just pure speculation and anything less than lucid (direct tv? ) will tank the commons, and more so the warrants.

I like Lucid and wouldn’t mind being long here but this is likely to run to $30 or more if announced and possibly do a QS move. At that point it’ll be priced at several times what the spac sponsors felt the company was worth, which could be seen as good news for investors but it also implicitly implies lucid themselves undervalued themself several times and they’re the ones running the company.

How about this diagram of Lucid to Churchill connections posted on Twitter. Spent some time doing the research. :)