Talking Stocks 2.0

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

@Logo - how about those moves in big tech today?! Only regret is not buying more FB calls when it dipped to the 250 level.

Haha finally some signs of life! I have no doubt they will all crush earnings - let’s hope Wall Street likes what they see.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I welcome the consolidation period over the last 3 months as we roll into earnings, where I expect most tech companies to provide big beats. Long FB, GOOGL, AMZN (and playing FB options) out of FAANG.

i think the consolidation was necessary too after the run that it had last year. i'm only in apple right now (stocks/calls) and have no idea what to expect from their earnings but with the new iphones + new m1 macbooks + holidays i'm really optimistic

[JParm]

Futures up again...looking like a very strong week, but levels are getting up there.

The concern is what happens after the euphoria of the inauguration goes away and we get into a post-earnings lull from February - April? We're going to need GREAT news (more stimulus, better vaccine rollout, etc.) in my opinion to keep the market going after all the earnings reports are through. Riding the bull wave for now though!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Futures up again...looking like a very strong week, but levels are getting up there.

The concern is what happens after the euphoria of the inauguration goes away and we get into a post-earnings lull from February - April? We're going to need GREAT news (more stimulus, better vaccine rollout, etc.) in my opinion to keep the market going after all the earnings reports are through. Riding the bull wave for now though!

I have been taking profits, raising stops and pay attention.

We need a correction here to take some of the air out, valuations are being stretched too far.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I have been taking profits, raising stops and pay attention.

We need a correction here to take some of the air out, valuations are being stretched too far.

Yes, agree.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Futures up again...looking like a very strong week, but levels are getting up there.

The concern is what happens after the euphoria of the inauguration goes away and we get into a post-earnings lull from February - April? We're going to need GREAT news (more stimulus, better vaccine rollout, etc.) in my opinion to keep the market going after all the earnings reports are through. Riding the bull wave for now though!

I suspect we don’t get great news and I expect a pullback after earnings.


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[JParm]

A bit of perspective on the "bubble top" and whether we pop soon - here's an article claiming that the market hasn't been this expensive since 1929 and 2000:

https://fortune.com/2019/07/29/there...1929-and-2000/

What to note? This article is from July of 2019 - nearly 2 years ago. So if you believed we were at a top then and sold out, you'd miss out on the gains up to today (as well as the crash in March, of course).

So are we in a bubble? Sure. Is this the top and we are about to burst? Don't let anyone tell you that they know this / called it; never forget that a broken clock is right twice a day. There is still room to run here, especially with the fiscal / monetary support that I've been talking about for awhile.

[RBradleigh]

Ford (F) getting Robin Hooded?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

Ford (F) getting Robin Hooded?

i think it's now part of the EV bubble

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

A bit of perspective on the "bubble top" and whether we pop soon - here's an article claiming that the market hasn't been this expensive since 1929 and 2000:

https://fortune.com/2019/07/29/there...1929-and-2000/

What to note? This article is from July of 2019 - nearly 2 years ago. So if you believed we were at a top then and sold out, you'd miss out on the gains up to today (as well as the crash in March, of course).

So are we in a bubble? Sure. Is this the top and we are about to burst? Don't let anyone tell you that they know this / called it; never forget that a broken clock is right twice a day. There is still room to run here, especially with the fiscal / monetary support that I've been talking about for awhile.

Interesting perspective, thanks for sharing. I've been watching the market climb, and while I am also bullish, I have to wonder if a correction might be needed sooner or later for a sustainable rally to continue. I've taken about 15% of my money off of the table for now, but am still very much long the market.

On another note, anyone watching SQ? I added a small amount to my position today. I think the weakness of late has more to do with how it tracks bitcoin price action, but SQ should really stand to benefit from an increase in trading activity on its cash app.

[RyanO]

Also for anyone invested in the genome space, might not be a bad time to initiate a position in Editas. I added a bit here today on weak price action due to a share offering.

They may have the cure for blindness.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

A bit of perspective on the "bubble top" and whether we pop soon - here's an article claiming that the market hasn't been this expensive since 1929 and 2000:

https://fortune.com/2019/07/29/there...1929-and-2000/

What to note? This article is from July of 2019 - nearly 2 years ago. So if you believed we were at a top then and sold out, you'd miss out on the gains up to today (as well as the crash in March, of course).

So are we in a bubble? Sure. Is this the top and we are about to burst? Don't let anyone tell you that they know this / called it; never forget that a broken clock is right twice a day. There is still room to run here, especially with the fiscal / monetary support that I've been talking about for awhile.

I agree. We’re bloody expensive. But with more fiscal support likely, low lending rates, the eventual conclusion of the pandemic/increased vaccinations and full economic reopening on the way, I agree there could be more room. Also, even if we hit a short term top, it doesn’t necessarily mean we pop and fully implode - look at big tech the past 6 months. They peaked, corrected a bit then they flatlined for a while, now (hopefully) they’re back in motion and I believe their earnings will support these higher prices. I still believe valuations are important though, and there’s certainly a few areas that are reallllllly stretched thin now IMO (solar stocks for one).

[HippoPAPAmus]

Speaking of bubbles, this GME action is wild. From ~$4 to ~ $43 since August and ~$20 to ~ $43 since January 12. I know folks are excited about the addition of Cohen, etc. and the move to a digitization marketplace, but yikes...


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[huncho]

Originally Posted by HippoPAPAmus

Speaking of bubbles, this GME action is wild. From ~$4 to ~ $43 since August and ~$20 to ~ $43 since January 12. I know folks are excited about the addition of Cohen, etc. and the move to a digitization marketplace, but yikes...


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they're all playing on the fact that they're expecting a squeeze. it's not so much that the company is good. i personally think gamestop is helpless but the logic there is that cohen will create some kind of positive changes that will trigger a squeeze

it's all a giant gamble but i find it entertaining how wsb owns like 6% of gme shares and is collectively fighting back against the shorts lol. those guys are on a mission

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

they're all playing on the fact that they're expecting a squeeze. it's not so much that the company is good. i personally think gamestop is helpless but the logic there is that cohen will create some kind of positive changes that will trigger a squeeze

it's all a giant gamble but i find it entertaining how wsb owns like 6% of gme shares and is collectively fighting back against the shorts lol

I must admit, it’s entertaining as an outside observer, but I’m surprised the SEC allows it. Same with Citron. All just mass coordinated market manipulation. They get upset at Elon for sending tweets, though market manipulation via Twitter is not exclusive to Elon I guess. Lots of blatant stuff the SEC just ignores it seems.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

I must admit, it’s entertaining as an outside observer, but I’m surprised the SEC allows it. Same with Citron. All just mass coordinated market manipulation. They get upset at Elon for sending tweets, though market manipulation via Twitter is not exclusive to Elon I guess. Lots of blatant stuff the SEC just ignores it seems.

i agree. what citron did the other day was blatant market manipulation and shouldn't be allowed, and it's not the first time they did it. it's what made me root for wsb in this one. i bought a couple calls last week just to enjoy the ride as well just for pure entertainment

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by logo

I agree. We’re bloody expensive. But with more fiscal support likely, low lending rates, the eventual conclusion of the pandemic/increased vaccinations and full economic reopening on the way, I agree there could be more room. Also, even if we hit a short term top, it doesn’t necessarily mean we pop and fully implode - look at big tech the past 6 months. They peaked, corrected a bit then they flatlined for a while, now (hopefully) they’re back in motion and I believe their earnings will support these higher prices. I still believe valuations are important though, and there’s certainly a few areas that are reallllllly stretched thin now IMO (solar stocks for one).

I agree on solar. While I am bullish long term, I have not been afraid to have taken profits on ENPH and SEDG recently. And then gotten back in on the dips - selling on the way up, buying on the way down, basically.


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[bimmer nerd]

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 beats by $0.41; GAAP EPS of $1.42 beats by $0.38.

Revenue of
$20B (-1.0% Y/Y) beats by $2.5B.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/365327...ats-on-revenue


Had INTC LEAPs since early November.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 beats by $0.41; GAAP EPS of $1.42 beats by $0.38.

Revenue of
$20B (-1.0% Y/Y) beats by $2.5B.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/365327...ats-on-revenue


Had INTC LEAPs since early November.

And of course the stock is down 5% AH


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[7sins]

You guys need to read this https://www.biospace.com/article/rel...led-by-takeda/

This is going to be HUGE for TAK. I brought TAK up a few weeks ago on here and the stock hasn’t gone anywhere. Cathie Woods and ARK has been buying every day, with now over 15m shares and we know why now. TAK will be doing distribution of MRNA vaccine in Japan. Saw this earlier today and added considerably to my Jan 2022 $20C that are dirt cheap. I might roll to Jan 2023 but this is huge upside here in the long run. ER coming soon and 2 drugs waiting FDA approval for the largest Japan pharm company.

[Zack21]

[QUOTE=7sins;11215514]You guys need to read this https://www.biospace.com/article/rel...led-by-takeda/

Thanks for the heads up 7sins.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You guys need to read this https://www.biospace.com/article/rel...led-by-takeda/

This is going to be HUGE for TAK. I brought TAK up a few weeks ago on here and the stock hasn’t gone anywhere. Cathie Woods and ARK has been buying every day, with now over 15m shares and we know why now. TAK will be doing distribution of MRNA vaccine in Japan. Saw this earlier today and added considerably to my Jan 2022 $20C that are dirt cheap. I might roll to Jan 2023 but this is huge upside here in the long run. ER coming soon and 2 drugs waiting FDA approval for the largest Japan pharm company.

might add some more to my calls in the morning

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by RyanO

And of course the stock is down 5% AH


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INTC historically drops after a big gap up like that.


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[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by RyanO

And of course the stock is down 5% AH


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Thankfully sold 1/2 of my calls prior to close and let the other half run on house money.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You guys need to read this https://www.biospace.com/article/rel...led-by-takeda/

This is going to be HUGE for TAK. I brought TAK up a few weeks ago on here and the stock hasn’t gone anywhere. Cathie Woods and ARK has been buying every day, with now over 15m shares and we know why now. TAK will be doing distribution of MRNA vaccine in Japan. Saw this earlier today and added considerably to my Jan 2022 $20C that are dirt cheap. I might roll to Jan 2023 but this is huge upside here in the long run. ER coming soon and 2 drugs waiting FDA approval for the largest Japan pharm company.

Thanks for the heads up Sins.

I kept an eye on ARK trade confirmations and they were buying almost every day in considerable amounts. Hopefully it gaps up tomorrow. What’s your realistic exit point?

[absin2]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I agree. Every persons risk tolerance and time horizon is different. Everyone should react accordingly.

Personally I am preserving gains and looking for short term trades at this point as this is going to be a tough year based on the comps.

Well said...

[beshannon]

Watching pullback in many places this morning, I am looking for more trims as this could continue into next week. We need to watch the 2pm margin calls and the market on close orders for a sign of direction.

I am guessing that many people may not want to hold long over this weekend.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/trad...re-active.html

More volume than ever before, which I don't think is a surprise due to COVID (more people at home with free time, all the information you could want via the internet, easier ways to trade with no fees, etc.).

What is something to note from the article is the mention of when it all ends - and they mention when Bitcoin turning over, that could be a sign of things to come. Bitcoin fell below 30k yesterday before recovering, so we'll just have to wait and see. I'm not into Bitcoin, but I would keep an eye on it as just another data point to monitor markets, even if not completely related.

[chsu74]

Bitcoin had a pullback because it went up too quick. And it pulled back like all things that go up quickly.

Yellen, known for her anti crypto stance, did not help this correction but walked back her comments yesterday. She may the treasury sec nominee but is being reminded of the Biden administration positions.

https://www.financemagnates.com/cryp...rrency-assets/

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Bitcoin had a pullback because it went up too quick. And it pulled back like all things that go up quickly.

Yellen, known for her anti crypto stance, did not help this correction but walked back her comments yesterday. She may the treasury sec nominee but is being reminded of the Biden administration positions.

https://www.financemagnates.com/cryp...rrency-assets/

Thanks for sharing this. I think Janet did spook the crypto markets, and also the concept of “Double Spend” which has to my knowledge been invalidated. Also, I agree that it went too far too fast and a correction was warranted. Now if it continues to roll over, that would be a red flag and also serves as a bellwether indicator of speculative risk appetite.


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