Talking Stocks 2.0

[maximus1]

Originally Posted by IsaakZ

I'm really new to stocks; like I mean I've never even traded but everyone is telling me to buy now buy now buy now!

I have no clue what I'm doing I'm still young and instead of putting all of my money in cars and watches I really want to look into investing and watching it grow.

My wife has some mutual funds which she mentioned has taken a huge decline and she is down a few thousand already this kind of turns me off of that whole thing.

Does anyone have some advice for someone like me? What should I start with I'm not trying to dump all of my money into stocks but definitely would be nice to get my foot in the door.

Is there a top 10 I should keep my eye out for?

I would exercise caution and wait till you see some stabilization.

Start doing YOUR OWN research.

Take a look at an index like the IVV S&P 500 ETF. It will track the market and has a low expense ratio of .04% with a 2% distribution.

No one knows if it is time to buy, but the longer your time horizon the better your chances.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

There are definitely deals to be had out there right now. As long as D&B doesn't go bankrupt, you should make a nice return at today's price point, even if it goes down more I'm the short term.

That was my thought. Even if it does go bankrupt, I didn't dump enough there to really worry about the loss but should it recover, it should be decently nice.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

I bought it weeks ago after the first drop.

Well if you believe in the company for the long term and your discipline is to average down then here is your chance. I remember when the stock was 33 after 2008 and as high as 420.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Well if you believe in the company for the long term and your discipline is to average down then here is your chance. I remember when the stock was 33 after 2008 and as high as 420.

I do. Which is why I bought it.

I am not overly worried. Still wish I bought it at a better price though.

[beshannon]

I am liking the action so far today, trying to find a bright spot somewhere.

Futures are all but useless so the market shot out of the gate and was immediately sold. Since then the buying has been orderly and steady and every time the sellers hit, the buyers step in. This is telling me that for the moment we may have hit a short term bottom.

The Dow would be 200+ higher without the drag by BA and MCD

It would be good for sentiment to close at the highs today on good volume and breadth

[beshannon]

Backed off a bit, A/D is 2109/1744 and volume is light at 460 mm shares.

Probably wont close at the highs but I would take a steady up day at this point on medium volume to try and calm nerves.

BA is $22 off the low

The highest ever VIX close yesterday may have been at least a short term bottom

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by IsaakZ

I'm really new to stocks; like I mean I've never even traded but everyone is telling me to buy now buy now buy now!

I have no clue what I'm doing I'm still young and instead of putting all of my money in cars and watches I really want to look into investing and watching it grow.

My wife has some mutual funds which she mentioned has taken a huge decline and she is down a few thousand already this kind of turns me off of that whole thing.

Does anyone have some advice for someone like me? What should I start with I'm not trying to dump all of my money into stocks but definitely would be nice to get my foot in the door.

Is there a top 10 I should keep my eye out for?

Investing is much different than speculating, which there appears to be some of in this thread.

If you have a long term (5-10 year) investment horizon, I’d focus on high quality, large cap companies with a history of increasing dividends and no dividend cuts. YMMV, but this strategy has worked well for me over 30 years.

[RWH]

There is talk about shortening the trading hours

[superdog]

Originally Posted by RWH

There is talk about shortening the trading hours

I hope the call it right now.

it has been a good day.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RWH

There is talk about shortening the trading hours

Originally Posted by superdog

I hope the call it right now.

it has been a good day.

Would not really matter but I hope they do not try to change the normal daily process. Most of the process is automated.

However ANYTHING that creates uncertainty will only make people more anxious and exacerbate the problems. Leave the trading day alone and focus on solutions to real problems.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Would not really matter but I hope they do not try to change the normal daily process. Most of the process is automated.

However ANYTHING that creates uncertainty will only make people more anxious and exacerbate the problems. Leave the trading day alone and focus on solutions to real problems.

I was joking.

edit...well sort of. More like I was being playful.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

I was joking.

You may have been but there have been a lot of people trying to shorten or even close the markets Very frustrating

[037]

Originally Posted by beshannon

You may have been but there have been a lot of people trying to shorten or even close the markets Very frustrating

Apparently if you bury your head in the sand you can hear the ocean.

[Hard_Six]

Thoughts on picking up some SQQQ towards the close?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Hard_Six

Thoughts on picking up some SQQQ towards the close?

SPXU on the close is my choice.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Hard_Six

Thoughts on picking up some SQQQ towards the close?

Just my .02, do your own homework

I would not be short here, yesterday and today are classic base building and bottoming process days. I am not saying that we cannot go lower, I am saying that I have been relieved and encouraged by the action today. The bond market is acting well, the news flow has been mostly positive and the market tone is positive.

Good luck.

[Hard_Six]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Just my .02, do your own homework

I would not be short here, yesterday and today are classic base building and bottoming process days. I am not saying that we cannot go lower, I am saying that I have been relieved and encouraged by the action today. The bond market is acting well, the news flow has been mostly positive and the market tone is positive.

Good luck.

Good points for sure. I keep going back and forth mentally so I appreciate the perspective

[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Just my .02, do your own homework



I would not be short here, yesterday and today are classic base building and bottoming process days. I am not saying that we cannot go lower, I am saying that I have been relieved and encouraged by the action today. The bond market is acting well, the news flow has been mostly positive and the market tone is positive.



Good luck.

Hi Brian,
Thanks for all your comments, appreciate it and learning a lot. If I may ask, are you still staying with holding a lot of cash and waiting a bit more.


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[beshannon]

Running into the close, VIX down to ~75 (-10%) 10 yr bond yield is back above 1%, this is encouraging action to be sure

Volume is 650mm A/D is 4/3 lots of value names being picked up

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Romeojk

Hi Brian,
Thanks for all your comments, appreciate it and learning a lot. If I may ask, are you still staying with holding a lot of cash and waiting a bit more.


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Thanks

I added some positions today,

I averaged down in AVGO, MSFT, SBUX
I bought WFC, CSCO, VZ and BA (very small) at the bottom

I still have a higher than average amount of cash

[enjoythemusic]

So, tomorrow (Wed), more Fed money injected to goose the market?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

So, tomorrow (Wed), more Fed money injected to goose the market?

There are other things happening

The biggest today was the credit market measures to improve liquidity and back commercial paper

[Kowaco]

I added a little bit today also, all tracking funds though


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[Naples09]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Running into the close, VIX down to ~75 (-10%) 10 yr bond yield is back above 1%, this is encouraging action to be sure

Volume is 650mm A/D is 4/3 lots of value names being picked up

Agree! Yesterday felt like a short term bottom with many calls for the world ending. Things slowed down today with mostly positive news and trends on market front. I'm looking for a little more stability going forward until we start hearing real news on the earnings front.

At that point a new low could form before we sort this all out.

[calh22a]

Thoughts on jnug?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by beshannon

There are other things happening

The biggest today was the credit market measures to improve liquidity and back commercial paper

Fed is buying nearly anything now. Wonder if it will be mark to market pricing (doubtful). Does the Fed's charter allow it to buy stocks, etc?

[doctoryellow]

Opinions on BYND?

[maximus1]

S& P futures limit down. Wishing that I sold more yesterday.
I put on a position of SDS yesterday at the close in an attempt to hedge a little.

The US Treasuries rates are higher. Oil at $25 a barrel.

Layoffs starting to happen.

This is a lot worse than imagined.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Fed is buying nearly anything now. Wonder if it will be mark to market pricing (doubtful). Does the Fed's charter allow it to buy stocks, etc?

The Fed is injecting liquidity into the commercial paper markets so business can get short term loan, no the Fed is not buying stocks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/the-...ouseholds.html

Originally Posted by maximus1

S& P futures limit down. Wishing that I sold more yesterday.
I put on a position of SDS yesterday at the close in an attempt to hedge a little.

The US Treasuries rates are higher. Oil at $25 a barrel.

Layoffs starting to happen.

This is a lot worse than imagined.

Worse? Not sure about that, pretty much the same to me. Credit spreads widened dramatically overnight, the commercial paper market is facing a liquidity squeeze hence the Fed taking massive action.

The equity markets are reacting to the stress and the flight to bonds overnight, the real thing to watch is if support from yesterday holds or if there are buyers at this level.

[RidingDonkeys]

Originally Posted by beshannon

The equity markets are reacting to the stress and the flight to bonds overnight, the real thing to watch is if support from yesterday holds or if there are buyers at this level.

Nailed it. I don’t think there will be buyers. Government restrictions are making it impossible to make money. Supply chains are broken. Businesses are being forced into an unnatural hibernation.

The only thing that fixes this is if we give everyone a hug, get COVID-19, and recover quickly so that life can return to normal.