Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by strettyend

Looking at the 1 year anniversary in terms of what people do in terms of monetizing last years gains at LT cap gains rates? Sorry wasn't totally following...

Originally Posted by TradingLoss

Yea sure if everyone likes to play that long-term game. Sure.

/NQ looks like it's setting up for a nice upset.

While it is the one year anniversary, I don't think this causes investors to sell for two reasons. One, most investors did not buy on the first day/week/month during COVID, most waited weeks or months or waited over time. Also moving from ST to LT cap gains makes selling more tax efficient, if investors believe there is more upside momentum, investors won't sell future profits due to their potential cap gains lowering.

Originally Posted by TradingLoss

That VIX can flip to 47 overnight. Then you can think of maybe being short vol.

The VIX has surpassed 45 twice in the last 30 years - 08 and Covid. Highly unlikely it moves that high overnight, it is usually over days/weeks. You can short/buy puts in the high 20s and 30s then usually walk away with a profit once mean reversion happens.

Just my .02

[TradingLoss]

Originally Posted by 7sins

While it is the one year anniversary, I don't think this causes investors to sell for two reasons. One, most investors did not buy on the first day/week/month during COVID, most waited weeks or months or waited over time. Also moving from ST to LT cap gains makes selling more tax efficient, if investors believe there is more upside momentum, investors won't sell future profits due to their potential cap gains lowering.



The VIX has surpassed 45 twice in the last 30 years - 08 and Covid. Highly unlikely it moves that high overnight, it is usually over days/weeks. You can short/buy puts in the high 20s and 30s then usually walk away with a profit once mean reversion happens.

Just my .02

You never know, there's always Murphy's law and it doesn't hurt to be prepared for the black swans, whenever they may come.

2020 volatility relative to 2008 is no real comparison. Volatility in terms of volumes and index moves not just vix, there's 2 sides to it not just the downside.

[TradingLoss]

17 Minutes until Globex open.






Whoever trades APAC and EU it will be fun times.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by beshannon

And now I remember why I left the thread.

This too shall pass...


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[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/trea...ck-market.html

I personally think there's too much tied to the bond yield story and the volatility we're seeing in growth names, but it is still a story...

Something to keep an eye on today.

[Xelorpepsi]

Originally Posted by JWD531

This too shall pass...


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I really hope so. Most members here have done a fantastic job keeping these conversations informative, structured and respectful. I would expect even more from members who are holders of a Series 7 / 57 / FCA license...

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by JWD531

This too shall pass...


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+1.

This thread is essential reading for me everyday. I applaud and thank members who take time and effort to sharing their knowledge with us here, and I hope that continues.

[JParm]

Market is reacting well to Consumer Price Index this morning; could see a strong follow-through from yesterday.

[TradingLoss]

Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi

I really hope so. Most members here have done a fantastic job keeping these conversations informative, structured and respectful. I would expect even more from members who are holders of a Series 7 / 57 / FCA license...

Registered individuals can come under fire with compliance, in regards to what they say and if it can be considered advice etc, or others can also come under fire for divulging proprietary or relevant positions. There is a limit to what the licensed individuals can say from an ethical standard. Some compliance departments are rigid and some are less so.

just saying.

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[Ballzzz]

Originally Posted by TradingLoss

Registered individuals can come under fire with compliance, in regards to what they say and if it can be considered advice etc, or others can also come under fire for divulging proprietary or relevant positions. There is a limit to what the licensed individuals can say from an ethical standard. Some compliance departments are rigid and some are less so.

just saying.

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Indeed I remember when studying the test section on Chinese Wall

[TradingLoss]

Originally Posted by Ballzzz

Indeed I remember when studying the test section on Chinese Wall

Good memory on the Chinese firewall. Traders and analyst don't talk unless they're internally part of the firm.

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[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/trea...ck-market.html

I personally think there's too much tied to the bond yield story and the volatility we're seeing in growth names, but it is still a story...

Something to keep an eye on today.

Gonna have to agree with you on this one. Here is another article

https://www.barrons.com/articles/her...jyemx0zisfwcej


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[jaisonline]

My 11 year old son bought 10 shares of Roblox. Paid $66.75 per share. He only had enough money to pay me 10% of the amount. Wait until I hit him with a margin call :)

[7sins]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

My 11 year old son bought 10 shares of Roblox. Paid $66.75 per share. He only had enough money to pay me 10% of the amount. Wait until I hit him with a margin call :)

What is his borrowing interest rate cost? 20%? Lego collection? Great to see you getting your son into the market at such an early age.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

My 11 year old son bought 10 shares of Roblox. Paid $66.75 per share. He only had enough money to pay me 10% of the amount. Wait until I hit him with a margin call :)

tough love


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[AshCashEmAll]

It’s so frustrating watching fdx resistance at 260. Hoping earnings will be the catalyst...


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[TradingLoss]

Busy day at work yesterday, worked out 30K+ /NQ contracts, expect a move in the Globex overnight.

Trade safe tomorrow TRF.!

[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

It’s so frustrating watching fdx resistance at 260. Hoping earnings will be the catalyst...


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Massive resistance into $261 today and yesterday. Happy to see if close above $260 though. My biggest concern is they don't release guidance again or cite something about rising fuel costs. Should see it run into next Thursday, if so, I will trim a bit of my position or roll my June calls to January as I still think this has a good longterm runway.

For those on the $COTY train, we closed at a 1 year HIGH today :)

[bimmer nerd]

Great news if you're in GOEV!

https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/10/2...hotos-revealed

Assuming the 30 yr Treasury Bond sale goes without a hiccup similar to 10 yr I will start opening more positions tomorrow. I think this should alleviate most of the fears that caused the sell off.



Opened a $140C on QCOM before close.

[TradingLoss]

/ZN 10-Year T-Note futures are gonna get busy

[vipereaper30]

It looked like BCRX was about to make a run through $14 today and now at a new 52 week high. It's been an exciting ride since the 3s. Flashbacks to the early PCYC days

Investor R&D day coming up on 3/22. While I think there will be more gains leading up in anticipation, there should be some very interesting data available.
https://ir.biocryst.com/events

AUPH continues to be a dog and I feel like I should be adding here. Any other holders?

CRVS is also a dog but I was shifting a lot of other gains in as the price dropped into the 2s. So relatively low average on a tiny market cap. It used to trade so thinly I had trouble moving in and out but volume has picked up since their most recent offering and dilution. This remains a long term hold I'm very optimistic about CPI-818. CPI-006 has promise, although maybe not as a COVID therapeutic. Not sure how the Angel effort in China is going to add value yet but if it can speed up the pace of trials I'm watching closely.

[supernova]

Nasdaq futures strong today, hopefully will be a good day for us here as most seem to be heavy in tech.

[huncho]

what a day for fedex finally

[7sins]

As I said, patience always wins. FDX upgraded to $356 price target with buy rating from Goldman Sachs this morning: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NY...gn=SocialMedia

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

It looked like BCRX was about to make a run through $14 today and now at a new 52 week high. It's been an exciting ride since the 3s. Flashbacks to the early PCYC days

Investor R&D day coming up on 3/22. While I think there will be more gains leading up in anticipation, there should be some very interesting data available.
https://ir.biocryst.com/events

AUPH continues to be a dog and I feel like I should be adding here. Any other holders?

CRVS is also a dog but I was shifting a lot of other gains in as the price dropped into the 2s. So relatively low average on a tiny market cap. It used to trade so thinly I had trouble moving in and out but volume has picked up since their most recent offering and dilution. This remains a long term hold I'm very optimistic about CPI-818. CPI-006 has promise, although maybe not as a COVID therapeutic. Not sure how the Angel effort in China is going to add value yet but if it can speed up the pace of trials I'm watching closely.

I'm on the AUPH train with you, I bought in before their FDA approval. Makes ZERO sense that the stock trades lower than prior to FDA approval AND they were granted the 10 year patent protection too. My hope is still for a buyout. What are your thoughts?

[Magnum75]

Originally Posted by 7sins

As I said, patience always wins. FDX upgraded to $356 price target with buy rating from Goldman Sachs this morning: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NY...gn=SocialMedia

Well I guess that explains the increase in the Mar 19 350C contracts I saw earlier this morning. I wasn't sure what that was about.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

As I said, patience always wins. FDX upgraded to $356 price target with buy rating from Goldman Sachs this morning: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NY...gn=SocialMedia




I'm on the AUPH train with you, I bought in before their FDA approval. Makes ZERO sense that the stock trades lower than prior to FDA approval AND they were granted the 10 year patent protection too. My hope is still for a buyout. What are your thoughts?

i dca'ed into fedex june calls a few times and i'm still down around 10%, but this is good news and movement and looking at the options chart there's definitely still room for a nice profit to be gained. hoping it continues its run in the next few weeks

[JParm]

Added to SHOP here.

Glad to see Tuesday's and today's movement in tech, coupled with yesterday's relatively muted downside movement. I think we'll still see some chop along the way, but thinking (hoping?) we're in the clear from the more corrective drawdown in tech over the last couple of weeks.

[bimmer nerd]

Picked up more COST

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Added to SHOP here.

Glad to see Tuesday's and today's movement in tech, coupled with yesterday's relatively muted downside movement. I think we'll still see some chop along the way, but thinking (hoping?) we're in the clear from the more corrective drawdown in tech over the last couple of weeks.

I would like to see QQQ retest 311/314 over the next week or so (bonus check hits Friday so would like to use that to still be able to buy some discounts). But I do think we should be back above highs within 3-4 months, if QQQ behaves as it has over the last 10-20 years.


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[egri]

Originally Posted by JWD531

I would like to see QQQ retest 311/314 over the next week or so (bonus check hits Friday so would like to use that to still be able to buy some discounts). But I do think we should be back above highs within 3-4 months, if QQQ behaves as it has over the last 10-20 years.


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I bought QQQ when the first stimulus check came out. It's been the best performer in my portfolio by a longshot.